Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Enigma]

Because this game needs to get moving, and if it is a half claim that is needed that idc.
You can take a guess from the claim as to roles or what ever, but it's still going to be a wild guess. I wanna see you try, and I'll giggle in the corner while you do.

Can we get along with the game and decide who to kill now?
Bvoigt or Sathoris is fine to be lynched today.

Do I need to popcorn.
I'll popcorn to Sathoris. KGO

[ThAdmiral]

My case on smarg is mainly going to be based on vote counts for now.
I have selected a few from sotty's official vote counts, although there are probably other situations I am missing out on that happened between vote counts. Alas.

I will more or less be looking at any large-ish wagon that had smarg on it. A major part of my theory is that when a wagon gets to around 4-5 there is bound to be at least one scum on it, especially in a game of this size and with multiple scum teams.
Anyway, to the analysis:

jmj3000 - 5 -

DavidParker,

LynchMePls

,

Ghostwriter

, smargaret,

LlamaFluff

This is not 100% damning as we don't know the alignment of DP, but if DP turns out to be town (and I do lean towards DP/peregrine being town) this will look a whole lot worse for smarg.

ThAdmiral - 8 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

, smargaret,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

Once again, we don't know EGL's alignment so this isn't completely dammning. But come on! One of them basically has to be scum.

Amrun

- 10 -

XScorpion

, Beasts of the Sea,

Stephoscope

, bvoigt,

RedCoyote

, ThAdmiral, smargaret, mothrax, DavidParker,

Scott Brosius

This has a bunch of unknowns on it, but is a good example of a normal wagon. Note the amount of confirmed scum on it. Once again: this is a good example of a normal wagon, because like a normal wagon there is scum on it.

ThAdmiral - 9 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

, bvoigt, smargaret

Once again EGL and bvoigt don't make this cut and dried, but common-sense and logic suggest that on a wagon of similar size to the one on amrun above there

has

to be scum on this.

Bunnylover

- 13 -

LlamaFluff

,

Amrun

,

RedCoyote

, bvoigt, smargaret, Lowell,

Nachomamma8

,

Stephoscope

, DavidParker, Furcolow,

InflatablePie

,

gonnano

, EGL

This is one of the wagons I have used before in analysis. My argument then, as it is now, is that there is basically no way this wagon got to 7 votes (i.e. before stephoscope got on it) with just town votes.

Furcolow - 8 -

Scott Brosius

, DavidParker,

XScorpion

,

InflatablePie

,

Stephoscope

, smargaret, bvoigt,

LynchMePls

Once again a couple of unknowns makes this hard for analysis directly relating to smarg, but it is just another good example that when a wagon gets to 8 you can bet your house that THERE IS SCUM ON IT!!!

Amrun

- 11 -

VP Baltar

, bvoigt,

Nachomamma8

, smargaret, Furcolow,

Debonair Danny DiPietro

,

LynchMePls

, Beasts of the Sea,

Stephoscope

, DavidParker, EGL

I'm still angry about this wagon. The unknowns make it useless for analysis, but it is still worth mentioning that smarg was indeed on it - so on both town lynches so far.

gonnano

- 9 -

bvoigt, Lowell, ThAdmiral,

LynchMePls

,

Scott Brosius

,

Stephoscope

, Furcolow, smargaret, Beasts of the Sea

Scum even love getting on scum wagons, as you can see here. Another thing to note (without actually looking back to see what was happening at the time) is that is interesting that smarg took so long to get on this wagon when I'm pretty sure she was calling gonnano scum for a while before that.

Feysal

- 8 -

ThAdmiral, smargaret,

Stephoscope

, bvoigt,

LynchMePls

,

Scott Brosius

, Lowell, Furcolow

Once again a lot of unknowns, but it is worth mentioning that smargaret has been involved in every single town lynch. In fact she has been involved in all the lynches full stop.

[ThAdmiral]

The other names that kept popping up were EGL, bvoigt and davidparker. In particular The 2nd and 4th wagons that I highlighted above put EGL in an especially bad light given that he is the only unknown on them up to 4 and 7 (!) votes.

Next lynch must come from one of these three imo. With a huge priority on Smarg or EGL.

[ThAdmiral]

ebwop: next lynch must come from one of these *four*.

[smargaret]

ThAd, I got on the gonanno wagon at around 3 pm on a Saturday. He got at least three votes Saturday morning. You yourself pointed out that votes were really spread out - I had been voting/pushing Steph at the time - and when my alternate scumread became a viable wagon, I voted.

Look at my posting patterns - not just in this game, but around the site. I rarely post before 1-2 pm. There's no conclusion to draw from that wagon, and as you admitted, none of the others are particularly bad.

I do agree with the scumreads on DP/Peregrine, EGL, and bvoigt in that order.

[smargaret]

Oh, and

I'm going to be semi-LA until Monday afternoon due to a command performance with the in-laws

[Sotty7]

8th vote count of day 5

smargaret - 2 -

The Fonz, ThAdmiral

Sathoris - 1 -

bvoigt

PeregrineV - 1 -

smargaret

bvoigt - 1 -

Enigma

Enigma - 2 -

Beasts of the Sea, Furcolow

Not voting - 3 -

Sathoris, PeregrineV, Lowell

• With
  10
  players alive, it takes
  6
  to lynch
  
• Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST
  
• smargaret
  is V/LA until 5/2

[The Fonz]

Gonna be away for most of the holiday period, so expect one post at most between now and monday.

[Sathoris]

Heh, well I'm going on a holiday from sunday till friday, but I'll check in at least two times so I won't be absent for longer than 48 hours.

Do I need to popcorn.
I'll popcorn to Sathoris. KGO

If this is what people want I'll nationality claim before I leave.

[PeregrineV]

Ok, so I posted some of the raw voting data percentages. Did anyone get anything useful from them?

With that, for me, they didn't quite do what I wanted them to. However, the Excel document I have has helped me note some anomalies in the votes.

1. From this, I believe I know the even-night vig, so I can confirm them town in my mind.

2. Votes received this game through day 4.
Furcolow----------132
ThAdmiral--------- 118
The Fonz ----------97
PeregrineV---------83
smargaret---------51
Enigma------------30
bvoigt-------------21
Lowell--------------9
Beasts of the Sea---1
Sathoris------------1

Gonnano-----------93
Stephoscope-------18
Scott Brosius-------10*
VP Baltar-----------3

And the Scott Brosius number is inflated. DavdParker voted him before leaving, and when I replaced in I didn’t unvote until I finished the thread. His actual number is around 2.

My point on this is how did Scott and VP Baltar (Artem) act “so town” so as to receive just a few votes out of 62 vote counts from 20+ players? This is exactly the flying under the radar that the scum team wants. Gonnano failed, but the rest seemed to be doing fine.

So, for now, I will
VOTE: Beasts of the Sea.

[PeregrineV]

It's looking like 8 vs 4 vs 2.

Why so pessimistic? 8-4-2 could be possible, but I think 10-3-1 is at least equally possible.

I think a 3-man scumteam would have a tough time in a 24-player game. With a Day 1 lynch, crosskill, and good vig shot, they could be eliminated by Day 2 in a worst-case scenario.

Yeah I would guess more likely 8-4-2, small chance of 3 man teams with some random third parties running around but given no flips and seemingly no SK 8-4-2 makes the most sense.

And this post of Scott's where he seemingly validates 4 man scum teams make me think there is only 3 on each, making it 8-2.

[Furcolow]

what do people think about sathoris, peregrinev, and lowell?
wouldnt be surprised to see scum in the unvoting ranks

[Beasts of the Sea]

I have nothing I wish to say.

So you don't deny my accusation about the smoke screen? Hard to argue with the truth?

Why are you going straight for the conspiracy theories rather than the simple and obvious explanation, that Smargaret is scum?

Because, as I have said, I don't see how two scum teams would balance with one having a neighbor, explained in greater detail below.

The question is misleading. What is required is not that both scumteams have a perfect counterpart for each role, but that the power level of the two teams as a whole are roughly equal. One could have two strong PRs, one three weaker ones, etc. I have a hard time thinking of a single role that perfectly counterbalances a rolecop, either. Not to mention, the power of a neighbor is pretty hard to quantify.

I understand your point, but a scum neighbor role is unique in the fact that it allows contact with someone outside the scum faction. It isn't balancing watcher/tracker/roleblocker/godfather/doctor etc. Giving access outside of the faction can't be balanced in any way unless the other team has a neighborizor or a neighbor counterpart. And the fact that it makes absolutely no sense under any circumstances for scum to trade one for one for someone she thinks might be scum. Any suggestion otherwise is, as you said, a conspiracy theory.

The real question is, why are you only interested in policy lynching and not even making an effort to look for scummy behavior? All game you have literally done no scumhunting and instead focusing on players who you think are lying. Even if you are as big a proponent of lynching liars wouldn't you have established at least the bare minimum of peripheral scum reads?

Enigma claiming Lyndon Johnson, USA makes me even more comfortable with my vote. Scummy behavior and on the US scum team. All the better.

So, for now, I will
VOTE: Beasts of the Sea.

This is new. Voting someone just because they have received the least number of votes throughout the game? Perhaps it is just being useful? Maybe you should try it sometime. And just to humor you a bit and since you did all that vote counting, why did you pick me over Sathoris who has also only received one vote?

[PeregrineV]

So, for now, I will
VOTE: Beasts of the Sea.

This is new. Voting someone just because they have received the least number of votes throughout the game? Perhaps it is just being useful? Maybe you should try it sometime. And just to humor you a bit and since you did all that vote counting, why did you pick me over Sathoris who has also only received one vote?

Well, this:
"My point on this is how did Scott and VP Baltar (Artem) act “so town” so as to receive just a few votes out of 62 vote counts from 20+ players? This is exactly the flying under the radar that the scum team wants."

Vp Baltar- 3
Scott Brosius-2
You-1
Sathoris-1

And you because Sathoris is already attracting attention today. He's had 1 or 2 votes on him all day.

[ThAdmiral]

what do people think about sathoris, peregrinev, and lowell?
wouldnt be surprised to see scum in the unvoting ranks

I'm pretty sure that's what pg is suggesting. Althought I thought the same about feysal and...
Basically I think it is flawed reasoning that is along the same lines as "lynch-all-lurkers". Not all lurkers are scum, similarly not all people who haven't received many votes/have (arguably) flown under the radar are scum.

A good "compromise", if you will, however is bvoigt. He tends to look scummy in both mine and Pg's analysis.

I'd be willing to vote for the sake of some consensus.

[Enigma]

The other names that kept popping up were EGL, bvoigt and davidparker. In particular The 2nd and 4th wagons that I highlighted above put EGL in an especially bad light given that he is the only unknown on them up to 4 and 7 (!) votes.

Next lynch must come from one of these three imo. With a huge priority on Smarg or EGL.

Because there can't be wagons that are purely town? Surely that logic is faultless?

what do people think about sathoris, peregrinev, and lowell?
wouldnt be surprised to see scum in the unvoting ranks

Regarding the Penegriv/DP slot being scum .... well DP was one player I spent a terrible amount of time reading and double reading. I've played with him alot, and if you spend any time checking his scum meta, it's just so predictable. I don't think he's scum here. Bad luck fellas.

Re: Bots,
Me not acknowledging your walls can mean a few things, here's a few take your pick, whatever tickles your fancy.
You're skewing the facts with a biased opinion. Your case has no merit. I don't deny your accusation. I don't feel like replying.
Just to list a few.

And I find it comical that you can deduce that I am scum based off a name claim. Surely if you were that good (and if you were town), scum wouldn't stand a chance against your amazing telepathic skills.

And PS: Can we get this nationality/name claim going. It's no fun by myself. Screw the popcorn someone else just take some initiative.

[Sathoris]

Right, nationality claim: Albanian

Next: Bvoigt

[bvoigt]

Soviet, as I said earlier. Lowell next, please.

[ThAdmiral]

The other names that kept popping up were EGL, bvoigt and davidparker. In particular The 2nd and 4th wagons that I highlighted above put EGL in an especially bad light given that he is the only unknown on them up to 4 and 7 (!) votes.

Next lynch must come from one of these three imo. With a huge priority on Smarg or EGL.

Because there can't be wagons that are purely town? Surely that logic is faultless?

Pretty much.

In all seriousness such a thing probably happens, but it is extremely unlikely that a wagon would get to 7 or more votes without a single scum on it.

[Lowell]

Sorry still away at my in-laws, will catch up. In the meantime nationality claim is a good idea, name claim probably not as folks have said.

I'm soviet. If fonz hasn't claimed, I'd like him next.

[bvoigt]

Furcolow, what was your nationality again?

[Enigma]

Sorry still away at my in-laws, will catch up. In the meantime nationality claim is a good idea, name claim probably not as folks have said.

I'm soviet. If fonz hasn't claimed, I'd like him next.

Whats wrong with name claiming?

[Lowell]

IMO it'll be easier for scum to manipulate. If there's a pattern in the names, they'll see it before anyone else. And if not, either way, giving scum a meta-issue to discuss all day won't be productive.

[Furcolow]

Soviet

[Sotty7]

Bump for vote count