Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[Crazy]

What I meant, chk, was that when the DH wagon fell apart, you jumped off (along with everybody else), but you never said anything more about it. Even AGar said as much as "I still think DH is scum, but people won't lynch him, so blah blah blah VOTE: Crazy." Other people (such as Llama and myself) said that DH was likely town. Some people (Socio, Sudo, Ranmaru), said he was still scum and kept their vote on that wagon. You had a really big case on DH. What happened to that suspicion after DH's replacement?

As for the Socio vote, you never explained that, either. I'm not sure what kind of "reaction" you were trying to fish out with that vote, since you didn't give any reasoning with it at all, and you had never expressed any suspicion of Socio during Day 1.

While we're at it, you never explained your vote for me, either.

[Twilight Sparkle]

We didn't think Sudo was town, but I think that's beside the point you're making. The reason I called for a VC is because our vote lead that charge against Sudo and I wanted to get a snapshot before any of the sheep followed me off.

Okay so you are gaming your own analysis but not to make yourself look good. makes sense

You trying to get me modkilled? (Thanks for pointing this out. Mind telling me which count, so I don't have to skim the thread for the vote?)

Singersingers 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.1, and 2.2 should have Plum voting for Sudo.

After posting the raw analysis, I grab a pen and paper, tallying up town and scum points. Later in the game, I also adjust based on possible (and ruled out) connections. What is your reason for asking this? I figure you (Hito) are familiar with my methods by now.

In that game we were lovers (which was awesome btw) I could follow your bruteforcing, and, while it was ultimately wrong, I easily saw how you ended up picking mallowgeno. Here, there are more people alive, and your picking of chkflip seems black-boxed. I could think of quite a few names you could feasibly call the "scummiest" by VCA, and I guess I'm just trying to get inside the process a little more.

Hey! I was going to let you misspelling "jib" go, but if this is how it's going to be, don't expect any pleasantries from me.

I don't expect pleasantries. I expect content, and I'm not getting any. Now vote.

-hito

[Punkin]

(Ninja'd by TS. Will read in a sec.)

Uhhh what?

No really.. what the shit is that?

I kno, rite? You're another one of those players who should be familiar with my methods.

More townpoints for Crazy. Sheesh.

DH/Nacho getting nightkilled despite being a claimed townie is noteworthy. Not entirely implausible that this was a mistake on the scum's part, which would point to scum that isn't paying too much attention.

Except there's not a trio on this list that would have missed that. This inspired me to skim Nacho's iso. He was suspicious of Ran, chk, and AGar, all three of whom are scummy on their own. Intriguing.

TBH, I'm more interested in Punkin right now. It was slightly disturbing when P said Llama was scummy from their VCA and still had Llama in the town slot...

We're using a numerical rating system that combines ongoing behavioral tells, VCA, and activity level. If we live long enough, it'll include other factors as well. Point being, Llama was townie in pretty much all areas

except

the VCA (and even in that he was only tied for third). Overall, Llama is still town. Even moreso after the NS iso.

...but now a vote on what they think is a town player?

You've shown your hand. Can you explain how that vote benefits scum?

@Llama:

You're paying attention right?

@CES & Oman:

Place a vote please.

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: Misspoke. Singersingers 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.1, and 2.2 should have Plum voting for

NobodySpecial

.

-hito

The votecounts 1.8-2.2 already had Plum as voting for Nobody Special.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama:

You're paying attention right?

Are you?

AGar wagon needs more pressure in just a few areas since there are a few wildcards that I really want to gage a reaction off of that continue to sort of just drift along, and I want those reads down today because the grey area of my notes are just really fluid. I think continuing to get people either hard backing or defending an AGar wagon will be the best way to actually transition some of those reads.

Not really understanding Oman hate too. Lurking across the board is not a tell, and when we have quite a few legitimate wagons, people going after him is rubbing me wrong all over. With about four or five players throwing out the "oh he is scum" comment at this point makes me very happy with a call of at least one of them flipping scum. Actually like him as town in part due to how people are just going for him for a null tell as opposed to in game actions.

@CES - What do you want me to say? That you hit a scumtell early and since then have been acting more townish since then? Really dont know what you are even looking for in an answer there.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Now, see, I think both judgments you make in that sentence are just plain wrong. I don't think that making that type of comment is a scum tell for me; heck, I was aware I was doing the same thing as Sudo when I made the comment. And that early useful vote is 100% a null tell. Given that I tend to be somewhat unreadable, I have trouble believing you'd feel sufficiently familiar with my playstyle to declare a gut town read on me while misreading me so egregiously elsewhere.

Except there's not a trio on this list that would have missed that. This inspired me to skim Nacho's iso. He was suspicious of Ran, chk, and AGar, all three of whom are scummy on their own. Intriguing.

Don't underestimate people's ability to make mistakes. Scum don't always communicate as well as they should, either.

[Punkin]

(Sorry, got distracted irl.)

Okay so you are gaming your own analysis but not to make yourself look good.

Yup. If you think about it, gaming the analysis to make us look good wouldn't work unless someone else is also doing Yth-style VCA.

Thanks for citing those VCs.

Here, there are more people alive

This factor is probably more important than you realize when considering the differences between this game and Big Love. Feel free to check my meta for more accurate comparisons of early game VCA.

I'm just trying to get inside the process a little more.

I'll go into more detail then. I look over the raw VCA and tally points. Being included in a group that contains one scum earns one point, if two scum (or a very small group containing one) then its worth two points. Things that indicate individual scumminess or townieness earn scum/town points respectively. Town points are subtracted from scumpoints, giving me the final rankings for the VCA. In this case, chk's final tally was 12, CES had 9, AGar/Llama each had 6, etc.

The groups that contain "no more than one scum" do not earn points for those included but, later in the game, can be narrowed down to rule out particular groupings. Basically, I am not saying that those people are scummy but, rather, that they are less likely to be scum together.

Are you?

Read this and this and then answer my question. Jury's still out on Oman,

if you know what I'm talking about.

Tell you what, I'll put AGar @ L-2 as soon as the Not Voting list is empty.

Don't underestimate people's ability to make mistakes.

Did I just name your buddies?

[Crazy]

@CES - I'll ask again, where were you going with the "scum likely aren't paying attention" stuff? Who's not paying attention?

[Crazy]

Ranmaru, you seem a little "toned down" here in comparison to the Newbie game we were in. Would you agree with that?

Also, I don't want to lynch CES or even chk today. My vote is not coming off AGar until he's lynched, even if that takes several days.

What is your opposition to AGar being scum?

[LlamaFluff]

Are you?

Read this and this and then answer my question. Jury's still out on Oman,

if you know what I'm talking about.

Tell you what, I'll put AGar @ L-2 as soon as the Not Voting list is empty.

Figured that was ment for AGar... huh

Anyways, chck isnt scum because if my other reads are right he isnt scum by association with those read. So he isnt my vote for today, and if we arent lynching AGar, im actually wanting to move the game in an entirely new direction.

Will hold you too that as well.

[Ranmaru]

I'd still like for you to explain it somehow. Tell me in one sentence why you are feeling an Agar lynch toDay.

Not sure if I have time to. Have to go take a final in about 20 minutes.

Why do you feel we shouldnt lynch him?

Sorry, I missed this. Do you have time now?

I'm not feeling a scummy vibe from him. Only thing I don't like is his meta on PZ when he hates meta, but meh. I'll re-read him.

You noting the same thing twice or something?

The thing I pointed out with the Ranilocks (Goldimaru?) reference only got you one black mark. Bombast aside, it refers to your fickle vote finally settling on the lead mislynch. Stated more than once because the pattern appeared across multiple VCs.

Oh ok. Well I was considering voting him before that but I wanted some answers from him first, and I saw him posting else where. I iso'd him (as you can tell in #463) for nothing.

Ranmaru, you seem a little "toned down" here in comparison to the Newbie game we were in. Would you agree with that?

Also, I don't want to lynch CES or even chk today. My vote is not coming off AGar until he's lynched, even if that takes several days.

What is your opposition to AGar being scum?

I have been busy. But you could say that.

My only thoughts are WTF at day ending so quickly.

As I said above, I don't think Agar is scummy. Why not CES or chk?

[Ranmaru]

Yeah I didn't catch up in this game over the two nights. Sotty was pretty on the ball and I was kinda thinking we might be nk'd on reputation?

Punkin, don't tell me how to play, thx.

Vote: Punkin

Happy?

Townpoints for Punkin

, and there's probably a scumbag somewhere on the Sudo wagon as it was circa 225: {LlamaFluff, Cyberbob, Crazy, Thor665,

Fate

, Punkin}

Bold, who cares.

Second bold, why does NS voting Punkin give him townie points? Isn't this null?

[Ranmaru]

Hmmm, what do you think of Socio's reason for voting you? Is it legit?

Crazy, follow me.

Vote: CES

Why name crazy in particular?

Because Crazy would agree with me.

[Ranmaru]

Unvote: PapaZito
Vote: chkflip

Here's my case;
I'm feeling checked out of the game at the moment.
There is no support for a PapaZ lynch.
Punkin just produced possibly the best supported VCA I've ever seen and nobody is backing his play after it.

May I ask what that whole post has to do with Chk?

Can you give me your reads? (At least your scum reads)

What are your thoughts on Punkin, Socio, and Llama?

[Ranmaru]

Are you?

Read this and this and then answer my question. Jury's still out on Oman,

if you know what I'm talking about.

Tell you what, I'll put AGar @ L-2 as soon as the Not Voting list is empty.

Figured that was ment for AGar... huh

Anyways, chck isnt scum because if my other reads are right he isnt scum by association with those read. So he isnt my vote for today, and if we arent lynching AGar, im actually wanting to move the game in an entirely new direction.

Will hold you too that as well.

So Chk is scum if you are wrong about Agar?

[Thor665]

Unvote: PapaZito
Vote: chkflip

Here's my case;
I'm feeling checked out of the game at the moment.
There is no support for a PapaZ lynch.
Punkin just produced possibly the best supported VCA I've ever seen and nobody is backing his play after it.

May I ask what that whole post has to do with Chk?

Can you give me your reads? (At least your scum reads)

What are your thoughts on Punkin, Socio, and Llama?

1. May I ask what it doesn't? I thought I was pretty clear.

2. You may - Papa Zito, Socio, CES are probably the top three. Frankly everything behind Papa Z feels muddled though, as previously noted.

3. Punkin - town. Socio - scum. Llama - town. Besides Punkin I'm pretty sure I've said these all explicitly before, and Punkin, considering the post you quoted, appears pretty obvious, yeah?

[Ranmaru]

Unvote: PapaZito
Vote: chkflip

Here's my case;
I'm feeling checked out of the game at the moment.
There is no support for a PapaZ lynch.
Punkin just produced possibly the best supported VCA I've ever seen and nobody is backing his play after it.

May I ask what that whole post has to do with Chk?

Can you give me your reads? (At least your scum reads)

What are your thoughts on Punkin, Socio, and Llama?

1. May I ask what it doesn't? I thought I was pretty clear.

2. You may - Papa Zito, Socio, CES are probably the top three. Frankly everything behind Papa Z feels muddled though, as previously noted.

3. Punkin - town. Socio - scum. Llama - town. Besides Punkin I'm pretty sure I've said these all explicitly before, and Punkin, considering the post you quoted, appears pretty obvious, yeah?

1. Yes, I just see that you couldn't get support on a Zito lynch, but then you fall back on Chk, why?

2. Ah, I see. I'd like to see you ask them questions at least. If Those three are your top three, why are you voting Chk?

3. Gotcha. I checked your recent posts in an iso before asking you, I just wanted to get some recent thoughts from you.

[Thor665]

Do you understand what sheeping is? That's what I'm doing. (this is the answer to both 1+2).
At the moment I have no explicit angles or questions to pursue on any of the players here - as noted, I feel off in this game.

[Ranmaru]

Yes, I do. Ah, so I looked at the vote count, and saw Punkin voting Chk, so I assume you meant you agree with 'em.

Ok, so what parts of the Punkin VCA did you agree about wrt to ChkSCUM? Please give details as to why it convinced you to vote Chk over your top scum picks.

[Punkin]

UNVOTE: Llama
VOTE: AGar L-2

I know patience is supposedly a virtue and all that but...

...if we arent lynching AGar, im actually wanting to move the game in an entirely new direction.

Which direction would that be. I think a wagon on CES would be informative, and there seems to be a fair amount of support for it.

[Punkin]

So Chk is scum if you are wrong about Agar?

This doesn't sit right with me. Do you know something we don't?

[AGar]

(Ninja'd by TS. Will read in a sec.)

Uhhh what?

No really.. what the shit is that?

I kno, rite? You're another one of those players who should be familiar with my methods.

No, actually I'm not. We've been in two games, one where you were SK, and one ongoing. Being that I don't put much stock at all in meta in the first place, I don't get the point of voting for a noted townread on Day

3

.

[Cyberbob]

UNVOTE: Llama
VOTE: AGar L-2

I know patience is supposedly a virtue and all that but...

...if we arent lynching AGar, im actually wanting to move the game in an entirely new direction.

Which direction would that be. I think a wagon on CES would be informative, and there seems to be a fair amount of support for it.

Oman wagon before CES tbqh.

Also Ranmaru needs to stop overasking questions and start posting.

[singersigner]

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Punkin (1): chkflip
Cyberbob (0):
AGar (6): Crazy, Cyberbob, Plum, LlamaFluff, Twilight Sparkle, Punkin
Oman (0):
Papa Zito (0):
SocioPath (0):
Ranmaru (0):
Thor665 (0):
Plum (0):
chkflip (1): Thor665
Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru
Llamafluff (2): SocioPath, Papa Zito
Twilight Sparkle (0):
Crazy (1): AGar

Not voting (2): Oman, Cogito Ergo Sum

Deadline is May 10th, 2011 at 4pm PST.

[Thor665]

Ok, so what parts of the Punkin VCA did you agree about wrt to ChkSCUM? Please give details as to why it convinced you to vote Chk over your top scum picks.

Here.

Take this somewhere or drop it, I'm lost in the game but I have better things to do than go in circles.