Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Quilford]

imo we have Prosaurus/farside scum

[Twistedspoon]

I want to hear from Locke :3

but yeah, the prosaurus daytalk thing could very well be a scumslip. No reason to assume daytalk at all

[Twistedspoon]

let's clear things up

@mod: Do scum have daytalk in this game?

There are 3 possible answers we could get

1) mod says scum have daytalk (unlikely)
2) mod refuses to confirm or deny daytalk
3) mod says scum do not have daytalk

If answer number 3 is given, then Prosaurus is almost certainly town. However the other 2 answers could cause us to question why Prosaurus thought scum had daytalk were it not a slip

[Quilford]

if not Prosaurus than Maxous

But yeah farside needs to be lynched

[Locke Lamora]

Vote: Maxous

Discuss. I'm still rereading some things but I'll be back later with more.

[neil1113]

@mod: Do scum have daytalk in this game?

I'm not at liberty to say.

Vote Count #3.2:
Day Three

Maxous

(1): Locke Lamora

farside22

(1): Quilford

Twistedspoon

(0):

Duplicity

(0):

Locke Lamora

(0):

Quilford

(0):

Prosaurus

(0):

Rhinox

(0):

No Lynch

(0):

Not Voting

(6): Prosaurus, Duplicity, farside22, Maxous, Rhinox, Twistedspoon

V/LA

(0):

Prodding:

(0):

With

8

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Deadline

for Day 3 is

9:00 PM EST 05/16/11.

[Duplicity]

I need to have a discussion with G as soon as possible, though last we spoke our town-read on Pros had gotten far stronger and todays actions only strengthen that. I still feel like yesterday was a buss but G doesn't anymore.

The self-hammer is generally because mafia is already on the lynch, otherwise the player generally lets his partners hammer to gain town-cred, so going to need to do some more reading into EAs slot.

[Quilford]

I need to have a discussion with G as soon as possible, though last we spoke our town-read on Pros had gotten far stronger and todays actions only strengthen that. I still feel like yesterday was a buss but G doesn't anymore.

The self-hammer is generally because mafia is already on the lynch, otherwise the player generally lets his partners hammer to gain town-cred, so going to need to do some more reading into EAs slot.

Why EA's slot?

[Duplicity]

NE's self-hammer means that at the very least one possibly two of his partners on his lynch already.
Necessary Evil (6): Twistedspoon (Disagreement on), Rhinox (Town-read) , Erratus Apathos (Prior Town-read), Quilford (Town), Maxous (Town-read), Necessary Evil (Scum)

Assuming Twisted is town for a second, it means that one of my town-reads is incorrect, of those the one I'm least certain on given NEs flip is EA.
Assuming Twisted is scum for a second, his other partner is likely on the wagon as well as the guilty would have been planned to give them both town-cred. This is where it gets tricky, if this is the case I can see Maxous as his partner. In other words, if I can get a solid read on EA that I'm comfortable with I can get then work out TS's allignment.

On a slightly unrelated note, what's everyones thoughts on a potential mass-claim here? With 2 Masons (Confirmed), 1-Shot-Day-Vig (Confirmed), 1-Shot-Cop (Confirmed) and another 1-Shot-Cop claim I don't see any more power roles in the setup, if another power-role were to claim during the mass-claim it would shed some light onto the likelyhood of TS's legitimacy.

[Twistedspoon]

if another power-role were to claim during the mass-claim it would shed some light onto the likelyhood of TS's legitimacy.

small question, but how does another power role claiming mean that you'll finally believe me?

However, I do agree that both scum must have been on the NE wagon for NE to self hammer, otherwise NE would have let his partner hammer to gain townie cred

Vote: Maxous

so why maxous?

as for massclaim, I'm fine with it, but I don't think It's really my choice since I've already claimed :/

Massclaim seems a good idea since if we lynch town today, we're in MyLo tommorow. Remember that

[Maxous]

Ugh, nyan cat :/

Anyway, looking at Farside22's behaviour on day 2..

- First was instantly votes NE after TS' guilty. She later stated this was because she beleived TS' claim due to him suspecting NE the whole day.

- Then we get into the 'I think' issue, where she says TS made a slip and covered himself by saying there might be a framer. After instantly beleiving TS about the guilty.

- I pointed out that I was sceptical about this change of mind about beleiving TS and she responded by saying it was because she suspected TS yesterday and called myself and TS a scum team together. Seems like deflecting. Also if she suspected TS yesterday to the point where she did'nt really beleive his claim, then I am again confused about instantly voting NE.

- She also took TS' response to NE of "so unless you can prove that the mafioso have a framer or I am an insane cop without knowing so then you're mafioso" out of context. She claimed TS was doubting his insanity but he was'nt. He was basically saying to NE "you are mafia"

- This last post is the most interesting. She claims she is having a hard time beleiving there is two one-shot cops. So why did she beleive it in the first place when she voted NE?

- She also claims that "I would think TS scum would be smart enough to get an innocent on another player then bussing and leaving no outs."
Then why argue that TS was scum in the first place? Or am I misunderstanding something about this?

- Lastly, point of interest : Farside and NE were on the same bandwagon 4 times in this game - (Ender241, Twistedspoon, Me=Weird, Twistedspoon.)

In conclusion: I think she saw the guilty on NE and instantly voted to be seen on the lynch. Then she seen an opportunity to turn around the bandwagon on TS when EA and NE reacted by pointing the finger at TS.
If she was as spectical of TS as she claims she was then she would of reacted like Erratus did. If she beleived that TS was genuine about his guilty on NE because he suspected NE all Day 1 then I don't see why she would change her mind like she did.

VOTE: Farside22

[Twistedspoon]

Ugh, nyan cat :/

:3

yeah, Farside would be a fair lynch but massclaim would be nice too

[Rhinox]

hmmm... I think I may have just wifomed myself into thinking farside is actually town.

Anybody who thinks TS is scum better have a damn good reason other than a baseless accusation that they were bussing. Come up with a reasonable explaination for why the hell they would do that?

I'm making a mental note to investigate who Javert was suspicious of besides TS. Javert nk doesn't make much sense IMO, he wasn't doing a lot of scumhunting thus shouldn't have been seen as a threat unless he was on the right track and scum were worried he might play a more active role. Its also possible that scum felt he was too unlynchable and confirmed town, would implicate TS, or his flip wouldn't provide a lot of info, but IME those have become outdated reasons for scum kills. New meta shifts let towns who have the balls learn from night kills. Javert was basically VT in role, and with me preparing to look into him today was far from confirmed town.

Mod, any chance you could update the first post with current players and who they replaced? I'm having trouble keeping track. It was quilford who replaced klazam, yes?

*checks* yeah it was, but it would still be nice to have that info in the OP.

Quilford is actually confirmed town, yet scum choose to kill javert over quilford, who is not only confirmed town but also an upgrade to the klazam slot? Yeah, doesn't make a lot of sense to me at all. Quilford, your suspicions from yesterday are probably wrong, otherwise you'd probably be dead right now.

Not to pat myself on the back, but I take a lot of credit for getting NE lynched and not allowing TS to be lynched. I bring this up, because scum would see that I'm persuasive in this town, and if my suspicions were on the right track, I'd be a legitimate choice for a nk. Scum don't like influential townies who are on the right track.

So, my theory is, scum figured Kill javert, maybe he was on the right track, maybe it would implicate TS, maybe with Javert dead, rhinox would focus on his #2 suspect farside. Quilford should have been the obvious nk choice for being 100% confirmed town, but he was obviously going to help mislynch farside, so he gets left alive. All this is wifoming myself into believing farside is town.

We have 2 scum left, and they are 1 of EA(Locke right?)/Maxous, and 1 of Prosaurus/Duplicity IMO. I think the VCA will support this once I present it. Its pretty obvious Quilford would be dead if farside were scum if nothing else. Thus, farside is prob-town.

More to come later, including that vote count analysis

[Twistedspoon]

just a small question to you, Rhinox, but why wasn't Jav confirmed town to you?

ender241

,

One-Shot Cop

was

Vigged

Day 1.

The vigged part kinda made him confirmed town to me :/

[Rhinox]

Thats actually a good catch. Vigged does imply town. I didn't pay attention to that. Still, doesn't change my last post as there should be no doubt that quilford-mason is/was more confirmed town than Javert and less likely to be lynched. The fact remains that scum killed javert over quilford for a reason, and its clear to me that a farside mislynch is the goal with a possible side of, javert possibly being suspicious of who really is scum.

[Twistedspoon]

I can agree with your conclusion there comradé

[Duplicity]

small question, but how does another power role claiming mean that you'll finally believe me?

It does in fact the opposite, if there's another power-role claim I would believe your claim less, however if there were no other power-role claims I would have to rethink my overview on the game.

Anybody who thinks TS is scum better have a damn good reason other than a baseless accusation that they were bussing. Come up with a reasonable explaination for why the hell they would do that?

I'm not saying that I fully believe he bussed, becuase G and I are still considering everything we've read but I will say there is definte advantages towards bussing. It's not a "baseless accustation".

Here are reasons why bussing woiuld be advantagous for TwistedSpoon:

1. Throughout day one there was a high amount of suspicion cast towards TwistedSpoon meaning the likelyhood that he were to be lynched on day two were massive. If he facts a guilty on his partner one of the two following situations occur:
1a. Twisted gets lynched NE looks town in comparison and thus can breeze throughout the rest of the game.
1b. NE gets lynched and town believe Twisted to be legitimate as proven via your own words.

2. Bussing a vanilla mafia means that mafia keep their power-roles while allowing themselves to get onto the NE lynch quite early making them all look good in future days.

3. NE was already highly suspected, therefore guiltiing him just moves the chances that he were to get lynched at some point in the game from highly likely to certain.

[Rhinox]

Duplicity:

1b, 2: IF (big IF) Twisted has a PR so powerful it would mean certain death to the scum side to lose it, then maaaaybe.

but...

1a: Twistedscum lynch yesterday would be a null on NE. We'd be having a discussion about whether he would claim a guilty on his partner or an innocent. 3: You say yourself NE's lynch was highly likely anyways, so you can't make the argument that twisted scum would imply NE town, if you're also making the argument the since twisted's lynch was likely, NEscum DOES NOT imply twisted town. you can't have it both ways.

[Regfan]

I don't think they'd have expected people would discuss or believe the likelyhood of a buss, thus them doing it is optimal. The fact you're so adamant that it wasn't a buss if anything shows reason why bussing would be optimal there.

[Duplicity]

The above post is mine for clariffication purposes.

[Twistedspoon]

I don't think they'd have expected people would discuss or believe the likelyhood of a buss, thus them doing it is optimal.

but you're doing it now, no :/

[Twistedspoon]

I know that I'm not bussing so I'm not going to bark up that tree myself. Discuss it between you if you must

@Quilly and Locke: why the maxous suspicions?

[Maxous]

Javert was pratically confirmed town. I know Rhinox suspected him but there was very little chance of him being lynched.
No offence to Quilford but Javert would be seen as the stronger confirmed town player.(He seems quite experienced).
Maybe once NE flipped scum perhaps they feared Javert would turn his attention away from TS unto everyone else.
But that's just my speculation.

There's a couple of 'X and Y might be mafia' but no real reasons given yet to look at :L

[Quilford]

what Maxous said (about Javert) was also my reasoning

[Prosaurus]

Err... Why am I so scummy for think scum have daytalk?
I thought they had a quicktopic that they can always post in, like (I think) masons.