Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[ThAdmiral]

@ThAd: Do you think the setup is likely to be symmetrical with regard to capitalist and communist roles, or not?

I don't know. I know that when I'm mod I try to make it as hard as possible to "outguess" me, so assymetrical is definitely a possibility.

[PeregrineV]

If there are only 2 left:

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Town (dead): RB, Odd-vig, blacklister, neighbor, watcher, 5 VT

Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 6 VT

Scum Soviet (dead): Rolecop, Goon, Goon

Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): ??, ??

So, going with 2 left, this doesn't make sense. That would give the US two non-vanilla roles.
Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): Neighbor, Goon

For symmetry, I'm going with

East German Town Neighbor Feysal and West German Town Neighbor smargaret

. So, yeah, despite the glob of posts about her scumminess, I'm putting her in the town column.

[Sotty7]

@ mod: did you make an error in the opening post, or is gonnano indeed soviet mafia as opposed to Hungarian soviet mafia?

There is no mistake.

[Sotty7]

12th vote count of day 5

PeregrineV - 3 -

smargaret, Beasts of the Sea, The Fonz

bvoigt - 2 -

Enigma, Sathoris

Enigma - 3 -

Furcolow, ThAdmiral, bvoigt

Beasts of the sea - 1 -

PeregrineV

Not voting - 1 -

Lowell

• With
  10
  players alive, it takes
  6
  to lynch
  
• Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST
  
• sathoris
  is V/LA

[PeregrineV]

@ThAd- Do you believe in the 2 scum left or 4 scum left theory?

[ThAdmiral]

I want to believe in the 2 scum left theory. But 4 scum left is probably more likely. Unless the two remaining US scum have quite a bit of power.

[PeregrineV]

Ok with four left, and given all we know about nationalities and such, can you give your scumreads?

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[The Fonz]

But wouldn't that make them overpowered relative to the three flipped soviets?

[The Fonz]

That was at ThAd, lousy ninja.

[PeregrineV]

I want to believe in the 2 scum left theory. But 4 scum left is probably more likely. Unless the two remaining US scum have quite a bit of power.

Actually, I'm thinking last 2 American scum are goons.

[The Fonz]

Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left? I don't think i've seen you forward a good argument, balance-wise.

[ThAdmiral]

Ok with four left, and given all we know about nationalities and such, can you give your scumreads?

8 ThAdmiral - town
10 Furcolow - town
11 Lowell - town

22 The Fonz - prob-town
6 PeregrineV - prob-town

1 Beasts of the Sea - unsure
18 bvoigt - unsure
24 Sathrois - unsure

13 smargaret - scum
4 Enigma - scum

But wouldn't that make them overpowered relative to the three flipped soviets?

I actually was thinking there could be 4 soviets and 3 US scum, but the 3 US scum have more power. So that would mean 3 scum left.
It is true that if there is only 2 US scum left they are probably both goons.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- A few reasons.
1. One of top being that the scum teams, for power balance, have to be equal. That means if 4 Soviet, then 4 American scum. I don't think there are 4 American scum (3 left). The nationality claim kind of cinched it for me.

2. 6 mafia in the game is 25% mafia. 8 mafia is 33% mafia. That is the acceptable range, so I refer back to my first reason.

3. The flavor symmetry- 2 primary + 1 secondary on each scum team.

4. Vote patterns. 4 man scum teams could have 3 on the primary wagon and one off-wagon, and almost make up the majority. However, if you look over the patterns, it never happened, on either side.
IE, I have 3 votes now, it takes six to lynch. Assuming no american mafia on me, they could all now pile on and end the day (obviously each would give a "reason", but the net result is that with 4 remaining scum and 6 to lynch, 2 misvotes would screw town over. And it would only get worse each day.)

[PeregrineV]

Ok with four left, and given all we know about nationalities and such, can you give your scumreads?

8 ThAdmiral - town
10 Furcolow - town
11 Lowell - town

22 The Fonz - prob-town
6 PeregrineV - prob-town

1 Beasts of the Sea - unsure
18 bvoigt - unsure
24 Sathrois - unsure

13 smargaret - scum
4 Enigma - scum

But wouldn't that make them overpowered relative to the three flipped soviets?

I actually was thinking there could be 4 soviets and 3 US scum, but the 3 US scum have more power. So that would mean 3 scum left.
It is true that if there is only 2 US scum left they are probably both goons.

Goning to pop nationality into your list:

8 ThAdmiral-US - town
10 Furcolow-Sov - town
11 Lowell-Sov- town

22 The Fonz-Other Sov - prob-town
6 PeregrineV-Sov - prob-town

1 Beasts of the Sea-Other US- unsure
18 bvoigt-Sov - unsure
24 Sathrois-Other Sov - unsure

13 smargaret-Other US - scum
4 Enigma- US - scum

Based on 3+1 scum teams, Enigma, smargaret, and Beasts are the remainder of the US team? And bvoigt would be the remaining Soviet?

[The Fonz]

@The Fonz- A few reasons.
1. One of top being that the scum teams, for power balance, have to be equal. That means if 4 Soviet, then 4 American scum. I don't think there are 4 American scum (3 left). The nationality claim kind of cinched it for me.

That's not an argument. Explain what it is that suggests there are not three American mafia. Do you think it's beyond the scum to lie about their roles or something?

2. 6 mafia in the game is 25% mafia. 8 mafia is 33% mafia. That is the acceptable range, so I refer back to my first reason.

That's not a reason. I will point out that multiscum games are usually closer to 33% than 25%, and single group games closer to 25%.

3. The flavor symmetry- 2 primary + 1 secondary on each scum team.

All that symmetry requires is two American goons, and the final role being roughly equivalent to whatever the soviets have.

4. Vote patterns. 4 man scum teams could have 3 on the primary wagon and one off-wagon, and almost make up the majority. However, if you look over the patterns, it never happened, on either side.
IE, I have 3 votes now, it takes six to lynch. Assuming no american mafia on me, they could all now pile on and end the day (obviously each would give a "reason", but the net result is that with 4 remaining scum and 6 to lynch, 2 misvotes would screw town over. And it would only get worse each day.)

But we're not at lylo. Scum tend not to go out of the way to be ridiculously blatant.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- Theose were my reasons, not arguments.
I think there are three American mafia total, not 3 left.
I think scum (Scott) did lie about there being 4. That and my own calculations means it's 3 each.
I pointed out #2 was a null tell, but I checked that, so I mentioned that.
Your version requires 2 American affiliated goons, since the PR is already down. Is your 4th a goon or PR?

We are not in lylo becuase it is 8 town-2 scum.
In your version we are not in lylo, because to soviet scum is would be 1 scum - 9 town, and US scum see 3 scum-7 town. It is not lylo for anyone.

"Scum tend not to go out of the way to be ridiculously blatant."
My case on Beasts involves that same arguement, yet I'm wrong?

[Lowell]

As expected, this has turned into an "outguess-the-mod" fest rather than a scumhunting one.

Not quite caught up with all of it, but offhand I'd say that "balance between scumgroups" is more likely to be followed than "nationalities lining up", particularly since we've seen one scum already claim a fake nationality.

[Lowell]

vote peregrine

, on play rather than nationality-meta. Something about the way he's pushing people to decide

exactly how many scum

they think are left is bizarre. IMO it's reasonable to have doubt, and it's reasonable to hedge nationality-related reads because of those doubt. That pere instead wants folks to decide looks a bit like he's trying to reverse-engineer an explanation as to who can and can't be scum.

As for the other leading wagon-- enigma-- I've wavered on him, but lately I like his play: particularly that he's still going on reads and not mindlessly mod-guessing.

[smargaret]

There is so much mod-wifom on this page it's disgusting.

PeregrineV is the leading force behind it, too.

My vote remains.

[PeregrineV]

Yeah, it is in the mafia team's best interest to have us keep chasing ghosts and lynching town. Knowing what we are truly up against benefits us.

[PeregrineV]

@smargaret- I know you are looking to distance yourself from all players in case they flip scum or town, but we would still like you opinion on the game. Are we looking for 2 mafia? Four? More? Less?
May we have your reads on the following players:
1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[smargaret]

... earlier on this page I was town, now I'm scum.

I'll give those reads after you do the same.

[ThAdmiral]

Based on 3+1 scum teams, Enigma, smargaret, and Beasts are the remainder of the US team? And bvoigt would be the remaining Soviet?

That sounds about right, although probably sathoris before bots.

As expected, this has turned into an "outguess-the-mod" fest rather than a scumhunting one.

I'm surprised it's taken this long to be honest.

[Enigma]

My case on smarg is mainly going to be based on vote counts for now.
I have selected a few from sotty's official vote counts, although there are probably other situations I am missing out on that happened between vote counts. Alas.

I will more or less be looking at any large-ish wagon that had smarg on it. A major part of my theory is that when a wagon gets to around 4-5 there is bound to be at least one scum on it, especially in a game of this size and with multiple scum teams.
Anyway, to the analysis:

jmj3000 - 5 -

DavidParker,

LynchMePls

,

Ghostwriter

, smargaret,

LlamaFluff

This is not 100% damning as we don't know the alignment of DP, but if DP turns out to be town (and I do lean towards DP/peregrine being town) this will look a whole lot worse for smarg.

ThAdmiral - 8 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

, smargaret,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

Once again, we don't know EGL's alignment so this isn't completely dammning. But come on! One of them basically has to be scum.

Amrun

- 10 -

XScorpion

, Beasts of the Sea,

Stephoscope

, bvoigt,

RedCoyote

, ThAdmiral, smargaret, mothrax, DavidParker,

Scott Brosius

This has a bunch of unknowns on it, but is a good example of a normal wagon. Note the amount of confirmed scum on it. Once again: this is a good example of a normal wagon, because like a normal wagon there is scum on it.

ThAdmiral - 9 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

, bvoigt, smargaret

Once again EGL and bvoigt don't make this cut and dried, but common-sense and logic suggest that on a wagon of similar size to the one on amrun above there

has

to be scum on this.

You pick out a handful of wagons in a 100 pg large theme game which has dozens of them.
Then apply with 100% confidence a hypothesis that

every

wagon must have scum. Anyone who has done basic statistics can tell you that your logic is flawed.

And smarg claimed east German. She must be lying then yer?

Re setup:

Nearly

(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.

[bvoigt]

There are 6 communist claims and 4 capitalist claims, I believe. 4 communists and 6 capitalists would make it even. So if you do want to outguess the mod, we have 3 scum out of the communist claims and 1 out of the capitalists.

Re setup:

Nearly

(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.

That's true, but when you consider crosskills, 2 scumteams of 4 each make more sense. I was in a 16-player game that had 2 scumteams of 3. However, I don't really see the point of arguing about it. Peregrine, why are you so concerned about the number of scum remaining?