Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Sotty7]

13th vote count of day 5

PeregrineV - 4 -

smargaret, Beasts of the Sea, The Fonz, Lowell

bvoigt - 2 -

Enigma, Sathoris

Enigma - 3 -

Furcolow, ThAdmiral, bvoigt

Beasts of the sea - 1 -

PeregrineV

Not voting - 0 -

No one

• With
  10
  players alive, it takes
  6
  to lynch
  
• Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST
  
• sathoris
  is V/LA
  
• Furcolow
  has been prodded

[PeregrineV]

There are 6 communist claims and 4 capitalist claims, I believe. 4 communists and 6 capitalists would make it even. So if you do want to outguess the mod, we have 3 scum out of the communist claims and 1 out of the capitalists.

Re setup:

Nearly

(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.

That's true, but when you consider crosskills, 2 scumteams of 4 each make more sense. I was in a 16-player game that had 2 scumteams of 3. However, I don't really see the point of arguing about it. Peregrine, why are you so concerned about the number of scum remaining?

Because of this:
Yeah, it is in the mafia team's best interest to have us keep chasing ghosts and lynching town. Knowing what we are truly up against benefits us.

If you knew for a fact there were 4 mafia left and 6 town, your entire scumhunting strategy is different than if you are only looking for 2 that are on the same team.

For example, this is Scott's post:

It's looking like 8 vs 4 vs 2.

Why so pessimistic? 8-4-2 could be possible, but I think 10-3-1 is at least equally possible.

I think a 3-man scumteam would have a tough time in a 24-player game. With a Day 1 lynch, crosskill, and good vig shot, they could be eliminated by Day 2 in a worst-case scenario.

Yeah I would guess more likely 8-4-2, small chance of 3 man teams with some random third parties running around but given no flips and seemingly no SK 8-4-2 makes the most sense.

Now, at this point, we have 2 dead soviet scum, and are speculating on the total mafia team size. Would you just out and out tell the size of your team, "hey guys, only one left!"? Or would you strongly hint at the correct number? Or would you grudgingly admit the correct number, but speculate highly that the incorrect number is correct?

I'll elbaorate more in another post where I give smaraget my player reads.

[PeregrineV]

... earlier on this page I was town, now I'm scum.

I'll give those reads after you do the same.

I still have you in a town spot. But, I could be wrong. And your still scummy (if it's this word which is confusing, then I can use "making posts and doing things that make me think you are a mafiate

and/or

that make me want to lynch you for them."

Since I think there are two:
ThAd-us, TheFonz-othsov, bvoigt-sov, PeregrineV-sov, smargaret-othus- town

Sathoris-othsov, Enigma-us- I think town but can't be 100% sure

Furcolow-sov, Lowell-sov- Maybe of the last US scum that lied about nationality. If not, then one of two above.

Beasts of the Sea-othus- US scum

If there are really four left-then 4 of the bottom five. But, logic tells me 2.

[The Fonz]

You see, PV, it kind of looks like you're trying your hardest to convince people that the setup is the possibility more likely to 'clear' Smargaret.

[PeregrineV]

@TheFonz- I happen to believe she is town. To me, the setup helps confirm this (once again, to me). And I think the setup is one tool the town has. Apparently most people think the lynch is the only tool, and so post one or two lines with lynch so-and-so.
Like here, and here and here and here

And

here, here,and here.

My point is that it's kind of common and accepted in the beginning of a game. But with 10 players left, 5 days of voting, 4 flipped scum, understanding the flavor somewhat, and trying to guess how the setup affects the endgame, we have a ton more tools to use.

But, it seems like the more I use them instead of one-liners, the more votes I get.

[PeregrineV]

@ Eveyone else who hasn't yet:
Please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining us scum, 3 us +1 sov scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.

[PeregrineV]

EBQOP:
@Everyone else who hasn't yet:
Please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining US scum, 3 US +1 Soviet scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[bvoigt]

@Peregrine: I'm still thinking 3 US + 1 Soviet remaining.

For scum in the capitalist claims, I'd say either smarg or Enigma. ThAd and BotS are pretty town.

From the communist claims, my top candidates are Sathoris and Lowell. That leaves Fonz, Furc, and you. Unfortunately, I had town reads on all 3. Hmm...is it a bad idea to assume the game is 12 capitalists and 12 communists?

[PeregrineV]

@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?

I still haven't done the nationality analysis, but 12-12 makes sense, for flavor balance.

[bvoigt]

@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?

I still haven't done the nationality analysis, but 12-12 makes sense, for flavor balance.

No, I don't think that makes them both scum.

[Furcolow]

I am considering shifting my vote to PeregrineV due to interactions over Janos Kadar

[Beasts of the Sea]

ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.

I wouldn't be surprised if the American scum claimed soviets since the heat is obviously on the Americans now and less on the Soviets.

So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

I think you are the remaining Soviet scum and I think Enigma is USA scum, with The Fonz being USA by association. To be honest, my scum read on The Fonz has gone down today since he is now doing some actual scumhunting instead of standing by his policy lynches only. I'll revisit this when Enigma flips.

4 Enigma - USA Scum
6 PeregrineV - Soviet Scum
8 ThAdmiral - Leaning Town
10 Furcolow - Town
11 Lowell - Town
13 smargaret - Leaning Town
18 bvoigt - Leaning Town
22 The Fonz - USA Scum, pending Enigma's flip
24 Sathrois - USA Scum, POE

Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left?

Yes, because he's the remaining Soviet. It couldn't be anymore obvious.

The question is, do we want to kill off the remaining Soviet team (PV) and eliminate a night kill, or kill a USA scum (Enigma) and hope for cross kills? I'm leaning towards eliminating a night kill for sure, because hoping for cross kills is not as sure of a bet as killing off a scum team for certain.

[PeregrineV]

ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.

I wouldn't be surprised if the American scum claimed soviets since the heat is obviously on the Americans now and less on the Soviets.

So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

I think you are the remaining Soviet scum and I think Enigma is USA scum, with The Fonz being USA by association. To be honest, my scum read on The Fonz has gone down today since he is now doing some actual scumhunting instead of standing by his policy lynches only. I'll revisit this when Enigma flips.

4 Enigma - USA Scum
6 PeregrineV - Soviet Scum
8 ThAdmiral - Leaning Town
10 Furcolow - Town
11 Lowell - Town
13 smargaret - Leaning Town
18 bvoigt - Leaning Town
22 The Fonz - USA Scum, pending Enigma's flip
24 Sathrois - USA Scum, POE

Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left?

Yes, because he's the remaining Soviet. It couldn't be anymore obvious.

The question is, do we want to kill off the remaining Soviet team (PV) and eliminate a night kill, or kill a USA scum (Enigma) and hope for cross kills? I'm leaning towards eliminating a night kill for sure, because hoping for cross kills is not as sure of a bet as killing off a scum team for certain.

The question is more like, do we lynch Beasts today, and if he is town, I'll shut up and be the lynch tomorrow. Wouldn't that be groovy?
No more me and my craaaaaaazzzzzzzzyyyyyyyyy ideas.

[ThAdmiral]

No way are we lynching the guy who is clearly trying in this game, who is posting this game when hardly anyone else seems to be bothered, when there are much MUCH better options out there.

[The Fonz]

@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?

SCUM. LIE. ABOUT. THEIR. ROLES. ALL. THE. FUCKING. TIME. If there were two US mafia remaining with actual American rolenames then the absolute last thing in the world I'd expect them to do is both claim American.

There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.

Also, you know who hasn't really produced any original scumhunting content today, and has completely not been called on it? Sathoris. I know he's had v/la issues, but he's also made filler posts like these:

Che flipping town cuban roleblocker raised a few eyebrows.

Enigma just claimed Lyndon Johnson

vote: Enigma

LBJ isn't out of place here, unless there's something I'm missing?

One, you're sheeping Enigma here. Two, let me rephrase that without the spin you put on it: "Fonz is creating content, giving opinions and reads, and trying to convince other people of them."

I'll respond to BoTS separately.

That's your side of the coin.

@smargaret- I'm sorry you feel that way. I will try to be more like you.

You promised analyis aswell. But your latest post was just the same, plus you added a (useless) question.

Don't assume anything based on nationalities and names. Scott turned out to be J Edgar Hoover. Someone you would classify as 'the protector of peace and common sense'.

The only real argument he's made all day is 'Peregrine is scummy for thinking it might be 8-2.' And that's a bad one. He's said a lot of things that kind of look semi-relevant, but don't actually help figure anything out or shed new light on the game.

You know what? Fuck it. I'm not going to continue to support a wagon pushed by smargaret and Sathoris, along with Beasts, who despite saying Enigma is scum and I am his partner with unspecified 'ties' is quite happy to push the counterwagon.

Unvote, vote: Enigma

[The Fonz]

Also, by the way, beasts: policy lynching IS scumhunting. It's probably its purest form. Saying 'X action almost always comes from scum, so lynch for it.'

[ThAdmiral]

Yeah my invitation of joining the voting bloc is officially revoked from BotS. And is re-extended to fonz.
Lowell and Furc are, as always, welcome.

[ThAdmiral]

In fact...

@ peregrine: I don't agree with you on a lot of things but I like the cut of your jib. Consider yourself invited into the voting bloc!

[The Fonz]

ThAd, do you agree with this statement?

There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.

[PeregrineV]

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

11 US and 13 Soviet. One of the Soviets is lying.

[PeregrineV]

Since I also did a quick re-read of Furcolow, I'm now putting him in my town category. And Soviet at that.

But not bulletproof.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- Beasts has to say that in order for his "3 american scum team + Peregrine" to make any sense. He knows your not scum.

[PeregrineV]

Revamp:
Since I think there are two:
ThAd-us, TheFonz-othsov, bvoigt-sov, PeregrineV-sov, smargaret-othus- town, Furcolow-sov

Sathoris-othsov, Enigma-us- I think town but can't be 100% sure

Lowell-sov- Last US scum that lied about nationality.

Beasts of the Sea-othus- US scum
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

@smargaret- Can we have your remaining scum thoguthts and player list please now?

@Lowell- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

@Sathoris- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

@Enigma- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

[ThAdmiral]

ThAd, do you agree with this statement?

There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.

This is probably right. Unless there are 4 soviet and 3 us.

[bvoigt]

@Peregrine: Wasn't Che Guevara Communist?