Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[singersigner]

Aaand that's a Lynch..."scene" forthcoming.

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Punkin (0):
Cyberbob (0):

AGar (8): Crazy, Cyberbob, Plum, LlamaFluff, Twilight Sparkle, Punkin, chkflip, SocioPath

Oman (0):
Papa Zito (0):
SocioPath (0):
Ranmaru (1): Cogito Ergo Sum
Thor665 (2): Papa Zito, Ranmaru
Plum (0):
chkflip (1): Thor665
Cogito Ergo Sum (0):
Llamafluff (0):
Twilight Sparkle (0):
Crazy (1): AGar

Not voting (1): Oman

Prodding Plum. She'll have 48 hours to respond via PM.

[singersigner]

AGar, a

Mafia Roleblocker

, has been lynched.

It is now Night 3. Everyone has 3 days to send in their night actions. If no night action is sent in, I will choose one at random using random.org; "no action" is an acceptable option. The deadline for Night 3's night actions is May 5th, 2011 at 5pm MST.

[singersigner]

SocioPath, a

Vanilla Townie

, has been killed with a violin string.

Day Four Begins!

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Punkin (0):
Cyberbob (0):
Oman (0):
Papa Zito (0):
Ranmaru (0):
Thor665 (0):
Plum (0):
chkflip (0):
Cogito Ergo Sum (0):
Llamafluff (0):
Twilight Sparkle (0):
Crazy (0):

Not voting (12): Punkin, Cyberbob, Oman, Papa Zito, Ranmaru, Thor665, Plum, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamafluff, Twilight Sparkle, Crazy

Deadline is May 19th, 2011 at 5pm MST.

[Punkin]

VOTE: Thor

AGar iso and all that jazz incoming over the next couple days.

[LlamaFluff]

Hi.

Time for me to claim, specifically cop.

I have two living innocents, and a dead Guilty in AGar (why I wasnt going to budge yesterday).

So the doctor that I now know exists, I could use a little bit of protection

[Papa Zito]

Cool story bro.

We've had a kill every night, why do you think a Doc exists.

But I'm all for a VOTE: Thor yes sir.

[LlamaFluff]

The obvious reasons for thinking a cop exists of course.

[Papa Zito]

Oh right setup.

Hay Thor still waiting for PZ case.

[Ranmaru]

Llama did you crumb? I was wrong on Agar... ;-;

I also agree with a Thor lynch.

Vote: Thor

[Ranmaru]

Oh right setup.

Hay Thor still waiting for PZ case.

Zito, why should you? (Meaning what have you done to help the town) Of course, to me you are now null. Didn't your vote on Thor seem a bit, omgusy? (Since he had you as a scumpick)

[Cyberbob]

Vote: Ranmaru

[Ranmaru]

Sup Bob. Explain your vote on me please, and post some content too.

[Cyberbob]

third vote on thor wagon with no own justification + still asking empty questions as the entirety of your posts

blammo

[Papa Zito]

Zito, why should you? (Meaning what have you done to help the town) Of course, to me you are now null. Didn't your vote on Thor seem a bit, omgusy? (Since he had you as a scumpick)

Why should I what? Ask for his case?

And I thought I provided ample justification for it already. You just skimming boy?

[Twilight Sparkle]

AGar's ISO paints Crazy and PZ brightly town. The tone of his attack on Crazy doesn't strike me as bussing and seems to be blaming Crazy for DH's wagon collapse in post 256. From there he keeps pushing all over Crazy in a pretty bad away.

As for PZ, AGar calls him town a couple of times but still attempts to discreidt him a little. Felt out of place with how he was insiting PZ was town (“I hate meta, but here's some to buddy to PZ”) It was like he wanted PZ to return the favour a points.

In contrast Thor's interactions with AGar look horrible. There is a lot of posting between the two of them that never seems to go anywhere.

Post 256
Post 266
Post 297
Post 317

All these posts have AGar and Thor chatting about what's happening in the game. Softball questions litter these posts and no real suspicion is expressed by either at any time. It's busy work.

I have a lot of town reads at this point. My preferred lynch pool is

Ranmaru
Thor665
Cogito Ergo Sum

CES is something of a wild card. Ran was defending AGar yesterday as well as posting a hella lot of fluff. Thor for reasons I have gone into slightly in this post.

Everyone else is pinging different degrees of town. Chkflip and Plum are the only other two I would be open to moving down towards the lynch pool. I'm unsure about Plum a little after seeing how bare her ISO is. She did make an excellent AGar vote though so.. chkflip I'm reading town, but it's mostly a strong gut read. I can't really explain it. Tone of posts maybe? Something like that.

Vote: Thor

~Sotty

[Crazy]

VOTE: chkflip

I see bad interactions with both dead scum there.

-Voted NS for lurking Day 1.
-Switched his vote off of NS and onto me the next day, after the wagon on me picked up. He never explained this vote. He then switched to the Sudo wagon after that became the popular choice.
-Voted SocioPath on Day 2 instead of NS for no particular reason at all. He had never mentioned SocioPath as one of his suspects before this.
-When I asked him if he would wagon AGar, he kind of dodged the question and said he'd look over the case again later. He put AGar at L-1, after it was already clear that AGar was the only possible lynch.

AGar also voted for NS because NS voted chk instead of me (when I had a bigger wagon than chk). I was trying to figure out if that pointed to chk being scum or not (as in a "NS, stop bussing.") thing, which is why I was asking AGar about that yesterday. I'm not sure, though.

***

So, in short:

-Chk's NS -> Crazy -> Sudo switch Day 1
-His unexplained SocioPath vote Day 2, when tons of other people were willing to lynch NS, one of chk's

actual

"suspects."
-His stalling on the AGar wagon, until he placed the L-1 vote.

[Crazy]

Oh, and AGar, if you're still reading this, I didn't mean "suboptimal scum play" to mean "poor play;" my intent was just to point out to Thor that you can't always assume that scum are playing

perfectly

.

[Plum]

Helooooo friends.

Right, so. Doing a bit of a reskim to try to consolidate and analyze what I felt came out of the Thor discussions yesterday and stuff (amusing in retrospect to see multiple players see Llama/AGar connections, sometimes the wrong way around). Anyway, while I was there,

3) I'm not convinced re: AGar. He hasn't always looked good, but he put up 2 walls right around the time people started saying he felt off - that's a clear town tell in my book.

Whaaaaat? What is this? In the same post he manages to promote the smiley tell.

Llama did you crumb? I was wrong on Agar... ;-;

Rrrr. Weird reaction to this sort of claim (fishing for crumbs of the innocents/wants to know where/whether to look?). Bad fish.

Anyway, ISOing Thor

I would flip AGar and OMan on Sotty's list above personally, though I agree I feel off about AGar but I am aware of his time issues that are valid and I'm having a hard time deciding if he's playing weakly due to time or weakly due to scum.

Before this you had AGar down as null. Can you pinpoint when and why you felt 'off' about him?

@Llama - my issue with a lynch on AGar is simply that I would have expected AGar scum to do more of a slam dunk style bussing on Day 2. His and my scum styles are similar in how we like to treat less than optimal comrades in scum - hence why I'm not fond of the current case.

I'm just putting this down for future evaluation.

That's assuming optimal play. Couldn't he just as easily be scum playing suboptimally?

That's a WIFOM debate - I personally believe AGar is a decent player and would tend to expect above average play or, at least, optimal play from him. Do you have any particular evidence or opinions to support the belief he's scum playing poorly?

But didn't you just say his play overall was weaker than you'd expected???

Agar, give me your reads on: Zito, Thor, Llama, and SocioPath please.

Zito - Town. Elaborated on this.
Thor - Mixed. I get fairly good logic from his posting, but Zito's 725 highlights some pitfalls in Thortown.
Llama - Town. Mislead, but town.
SocioPath - Leaning scummish because he seems to be playing in a way that makes him intentionally difficult to read.

This after that whole Day 1 mess I nearly forgot about directly between AGar and Thor.

Regarding Punkin's case on Thor: Most interesting about Thor leaving NS off the wagons list and responding to being called out on that is the following:

NS is now a lurker wagon that just sprang to L-2 in a matter of moments. People seem too happy there, consequently I am not happy with it. I'm going back to look at where that thing came from and will have thoughts later tonight.

Fair enough . . . if Thor posted thoughts after looking. I can't see that he

did

, though. The next day he does say

Of the current wagon leaders I'd be most behind NS, but I still feel it's kind of 'meh' and would really like people to at least verify they got a town read off Sudo when they fled like rats. Because I didn't get that memo and I'm still saying scum over here, and I haven't seen anyone waving 'Sudo and Socio are awesometown' flags around lately and I'm really wondering what's up with that.

This is a liking NS-lynch but keeping vote on Sudo.

^
I will point out that applies equally for Sudo, amirite?

Psssh, if it stays this slow I'll vote NS tomorrow just for kicks.

Another fake promise to vote NS (did the game get faster? In this context, does it matter? I'm too lazy for the former and tempted to say no on the latter) - or at least a suggestion that he might've voted that way but didn't put a vote on NS. Onto another point Ythill made and elaboration of how I think it works out:

I feel out of the loop for this game at the moment. I'm not sure i but the NS lynch based off being a counter wagon to Sudo - is there more to this case than that? Are we that sure the counter was on a scum? Meh.

This makes fairly little sense on Day 2 from someone whose main aversion to voting NS Day 1 was, as far as I can see, the speed from which people left the initial Sudo wagon for the NS wagon. Basically, logic Day 1 went 'Sudo seems scum, everyone's leaving it for NS, I don't see why they're all leaving so it's probably a bad wagon', logic Day 2 was 'the only reason to vote NS would be that Sudo might've been the scum-counterwagon, and that's highly inconclusive'. There's

something

I'm missing here. Especially for choosing Zito wagon there:

Gut and the way he acted at start of Day. On top of things enough to notice a vote count error about Zorblag, but "lol, obviouslly not scum" enough to not pay any attention to who was NKed? Naaaaah.

Eh, everyone pays attention to his own vote. I don't know what the gut/start of Day 1 means because Thor didn't mention it at the time - no wait:

I actually find Papa Z to be town, his reactions to DH felt the most town-like of anyone, which is just sad again.

Huh?

Anyway, of the two votes Day 2 not on NS, I'm willing to take Thor over Chk because Thor is over-justifying a very weak vote when by all indications he ought to have found NS much scummier at that point. It certainly seemed like more of a scumteam-oriented reaction to AGar's weak bus (as in one of the scumteam would want to do something black-sheep against the lynch momentum after that) and Thor's looks more deliberate.

That said, Crazy, your thought process on Chk is temptingly pretty.

VOTE: Thor

[Crazy]

Looking over his ISO again, a Thor lynch really isn't a bad idea, either, since he also had scummy interactions with both NS and AGar, perhaps even more obviously than chk did.

I'll be happy either way.

[LlamaFluff]

Looking over his ISO again, a Thor lynch really isn't a bad idea, either, since he also had scummy interactions with both NS and AGar, perhaps even more obviously than chk did.

I'll be happy either way.

Well its not both, and I lean way from chck either way

Is there anything wrong with me just claiming my innocents at this point? Scum have to doc hunt either way already.

I think all scum are just in about four players at this point though unless im reading a few people very wrong.

[Papa Zito]

I wouldn't claim them unless we're wagoning them.

[singersigner]

Frank Sinatra

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Punkin (0):
Cyberbob (0):
Oman (0):
Papa Zito (0):
Ranmaru (1): Cyberbob
Thor665 (5): Punkin, Papa Zito, Ranmaru, Twilight Sparkle, Plum
Plum (0):
chkflip (1): Crazy
Cogito Ergo Sum (0):
Llamafluff (0):
Twilight Sparkle (0):
Crazy (0):

Not voting (5): Oman, Thor665, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum, LlamaFluff

Deadline is May 19th, 2011 at 5pm MST.

[Thor665]

Before this you had AGar down as null. Can you pinpoint when and why you felt 'off' about him?

His initial posting was pretty weak for the AGar I know and love. If you really think it will matter considering my obvious mislynch status today I'll attack that when I'm sober and if I'm still alive - ask me again if you want it.

@Llama - my issue with a lynch on AGar is simply that I would have expected AGar scum to do more of a slam dunk style bussing on Day 2. His and my scum styles are similar in how we like to treat less than optimal comrades in scum - hence why I'm not fond of the current case.

I'm just putting this down for future evaluation.

Also - I hate AGar.

That's a WIFOM debate - I personally believe AGar is a decent player and would tend to expect above average play or, at least, optimal play from him. Do you have any particular evidence or opinions to support the belief he's scum playing poorly?

But didn't you just say his play overall was weaker than you'd expected???[/quote]
Define 'just'. I got $5 that says those two posts were many days apart and probably seperated by the pickup in AGar's play. Wasn't one of those Day 1 and the second Day 2 - so they were made weeks apart. Don't be silly.

Fair enough . . . if Thor posted thoughts after looking. I can't see that he

did

, though. The next day he does say

You'll note I was corrected on the L-2 thing. i dropped going back because I'm lazy as all get out.

The extent of my defense is I would never blatantly defend multiple scumbuddies back to back to back. Unfortunately that's all I've got, I really have just had really off reads this game and was defending the living hell out of two scummers. So I do have to go. Feel free to ask me for whatever reads you think may help. When I sober up and have some time I'll try to offer a last review of this wagon train on me, but it's chugging fast (and I'm lazy) so we'll see if I'm even around for it.

Apologies to town for my gak reads this game, and fie on AGar for playing me like I did to him when our roles were reversed (jerk!).

[Thor665]

Oh right setup.

Hay Thor still waiting for PZ case.

Hay PZ - I provided it already.

[Papa Zito]

wat? Where?