Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Quilford]

Catch up post:

@Pro: How do you know what a day talk is if you never played scum before?
I see you said something about Mason. Have you been in a game you were mason with a day talk?

Well I knew scum have a quick topic, I didn't think there were rules against them using it during the day.
I think Mason must have daytalk, how else could Quilford post Juls' final reads on Day 1?

She made them on Night 1.

I'm seeing some convincing arguments against EA/LL.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox: Do you have any reason why you beleive Farside is town apart from the Javert kill?
Also, you said you agree about Locke on his assesment of myself? With all of his points or just the conclusion?
Is there any points you disagree?

Yes there is the fact that Farside adamantly left her vote parked right next to NE in the VC all game day. Scum partners don't often take identical stances and leave votes in the same places. ESPECIALLY not when 1 of them was guaranteed to get lynched either yesterday or today.

Points and conclusion, and no I'm not going to go through and address all the points one by one. There's nothing productive about that.

This weekend on my to do list is to finish the reads I've promised and then vote for Maxous if the reads don't change my opinion.

[Locke Lamora]

Quilford: are you having a laugh?

[Quilford]

Why do you ask?

[Locke Lamora]

I thought it was funny. I mean, I think the only person who's expressed strong suspicion of this slot recently is Prosaurus, who upon being questioned, admitted he hadn't read the game properly.

[Locke Lamora]

The more I read this TS response to Oso, the more it sounds like cognitive dissonance:

4 strong reasons there why his claim is not false:

• No reason, that I can think of, for scum to claim just out of the blue like that, especially not a day role where we can see the result in-thread.
  
• He has committed himself in such a way that he can't really back out of it. So he's not bluffing about being able to kill. He can day kill.
  
• He has shut off his options. Rarely (I mean as in never) have I personally seen scum shut off their options as completely as that this early in the game.
• He never does mention vigging anyone who votes him.

From where I stand right now, Javert is exactly what he claims to be.

:goodposting:
It doesn't matter though really if his claim is false at this moment in time though, since he'll be making his kill before the end of the day

[Quilford]

Locke:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p3014523

[Maxous]

Hurm Prosaurus using 'I have'nt paid much attention to the thread' card... bleh but I've had a town read on him from day 1.

Unless I missed something, which seeing LL still talking tells me I haven't, EA hasn't flipped so I have no feel for it.

Yeah..I fail.

I meant to say after NE's flip.

ESPECIALLY not when 1 of them was guaranteed to get lynched either yesterday or today.

Who?

Farside and Neccessary Evil?

Let me ask you this: if NE was such an obvious target for TS, why do you think he was still given the chance to use his investigation?

3 confirmed town in this game. Thier choices for night kills has been forced.
I was a bit surprised he was'nt roleblocked though.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, I guess Rhinox brought up some interesting potential EA-NE links. I think EA's approach to NE was unfortunate in that he read him completely wrong, but he was pretty unashamed about stating his suspicions and wasn't playing with caution indicative of scum, but then I would say that. Contrast that with Maxous, who does not look like a townie critically reading NE at all.

In any case, despite his points, Rhinox's conclusion indicated a lack of suspicion on my slot largely due to PoE, so it didn't really seem like it was actually a 'convincing argument'. It was more 'this is interesting...but I don't really think he's scum'.

Maxous: I don't think that really explains it. Say you're scum with NE. You see TS do two things:
a) claim 1-shot cop
b) spend all day stating suspicion of NE
What reason do you think there could be for not killing/blocking TS? Why is Juls a better kill than a claimed cop who the scumteam know is going to investigate scum?

[Maxous]

Okay quick before I go.

Confirmed town - unlynchable

Cop claim - still lynchable. Espicially considering the level of suspicion on TS during day 1. Ender got killed on day 1 despite claiming cop.
I can only assume the mafia does'nt have a roleblocker.

That would be my speculation.

[Locke Lamora]

I guess it's plausible. TS's flip would then confirm NE as scum, though, so the scum would effectively be conceding that they'd lose a member one way or another. My other issue with that is 2 1-shot cops and a mason pair is pretty powerful (if I remember rightly the stats indicate that vigs don't actually increase town's win chances, but I might be wrong). Either way, you've got to be thinking that any scumteam would have at least a couple of PRs to counteract those. I'd expect a Godfather with the two cops, so what else is there if not a blocker? If there was a Framer they just would have made NE show up as innocent. The only other thing I could see to plausibly counteract town's power is a rolecop so that the scum could find the PRs, and that makes me feel a whole lot worse about TS.

[Twistedspoon]

I was a bit surprised he was'nt roleblocked though.

so was I tbh
maybe they puposely ddn't roleblock me for this exact reason; so that you'd think this way

other than that I have no idea unless mafia don't have a roleblocker or the mafia roleblocker was roleblocked by a town roleblocker or something...

@Twistedspoon and Prosaurus: Number one suspect for mafia please. ^_^

tbh, I really don't know :/
I spent much of my time tunneling on NE that i'm outdated slightly with the rest.
Farside would be a reasonable lynch I guess. It looked as she was trying to protect NE in D2. :/

[farside22]

I meant to say after NE's flip.

I honestly don't know. I keep debating with this back and forth. If TS is scum he earns town points after looking scummy all of day 1. However this puts him in a corner as the game goes on with why is he still alive. I also have to wonder about 2 - one shot cops in the game if real shouldn't the scum team have something to counter that like a GF or RB or even Framer.
Then I think about what Maxous says about TS and claiming time. I ask is TS scum smart enough to do this, he did do it in another game but later.
His play is lackluster to say the least. I feel like he's floating by without giving his own thoughts that he observed without following someone else. That to me usually comes from scum more then town.

[Rhinox]

Why are we even talking about TS today? We shouldm't even be considering lynching him today. If he's still alive in LyLo, then we can argue whether or not he's scum.

[Duplicity]

I have been lax in keeping up with the thread, this is just brief catch-up post while I work on some serious analysis

Duplicity: what is it that makes you think NE/TS weren't bussing D1?

They both went after each other fairly strongly day 1, TS kept his vote on NE all day and never budged it, which doesn't seem like a scum move to me. Yes, bla bla distancing, but I think he would have looked for an excuse to join another wagon, or been weak with his vote, but he doesn't and NE votes him back, overall right now it just doesn't look like interaction between two partners.



[quote="Maxous@Duplicity: You mentioned you were having serious doubts on EA? What doubts?
Also if you are regaining a town-read on EA(locke) does that mean myself and twisted are the mafia pairing then?[/quote]

Can't answer for the second half because that's Regfan's idea about pairings, but reasons for being wary of EA slot are as follows: he had some slight interaction with NE day 1 and then wrote him off as town, put NE on the list of targets he didn't want to get vigged with very little discussion. NE drops this statement in his ISO #1:

The case on Ender is even worse. That was just a random vote. Any suspicion regarding that vote depends on EA being scum, and it's too early to tell that especially since Oso's case on EA is so weak.

which just feels all kinds of bad to me - looks like newbie scum making the mistake of defending their partner from a lolRVS case.

better post later today, hopefully

-gorilla

[Twistedspoon]

His play is lackluster to say the least.

How can you say my play is bad after I investigated one of the mafioso?

Clearly that's bad for you.

Gentlemen, methinks we have our second scum

VOTE: Farside

[farside22]

His play is lackluster to say the least.

How can you say my play is bad after I investigated one of the mafioso?

Clearly that's bad for you.

Gentlemen, methinks we have our second scum

VOTE: Farside

Which also can be scum bussing.
Seriously did you even write up or have a case on NE? I don't believe I ever saw one. That's my point in a nutshell. You do nothing of your owe point of view but put comments that already been stated. That is what I call lackluster

[farside22]

Okay I sat down to reread the EA/NE interaction inbetween chaos.
Finally got my head set an my instinct in place. Although I don't like how at the end of day 1 EA defends NE. I believe that is the only thing that bothered me. I felt that his push on Oso over NE or even MW was weak. However EA pushes through more in a case. He poked, prodded and even got what I usually feel is a town move accepting of how he behaved in the game instead of talking circles like I have seen scum do.
I think if EA was scum he had balls of steel and I don't get that from reading his post. Plus I notice EA pushed more on NE during the day then anyone else. I know scum buss, I just don't get that impression. The case, the push on NE and although I disagreed with his Oso read it reads as someone who is looking through and scum hunting.

[farside22]

Next up is Maxous.

He found NE town day one other then that he said nothing to or about NE during day 1. I usually see either light interaction or no interaction with scum buddies. Some scum are bad about bussing and sometimes they almost type a sort of akward exchange that looks like they are questioning their buddy but really is for town points, or they avoid them if they don't want to create any link.

Day 2 is more of a doozy.
Here Maxous waits for NE thinking the votes are too quick.

Let Neccessary Evil respond at least.
Those votes are too quick.

Apart from that, not much to discuss.The town decides to lynch NE or not at this stage. Discussing other suspects would be pointless until that is decided.

Here he has tries to dirty TS a bit, but then saying he didn't see TS scum fake claiming do to the timing.

Twistedspoon is at L-2

Going into WIFOM yes, but I'm having serious trouble beleiving that a mafia who claimed a one-shot cop would fake a guilty result on town. That makes little sense, one mislynch of the target and the mafia player is screwed. Good mafia play does not involve a trade off between town and mafia players. It would of made tons of more sense to clear one single town player than to trade off.
The only scenario I see TS being mafia is if NE is mafia as well. They decided to bus in an attempt to clear TS. Seems a bit risky but plausible.

Also when considering wheter or not TS is mafia you have to take his reaction to Ender's claim. Did he decide to fake a one-shot cop claim right after Ender-claimed with this reaction? Maybe, but it would of had to be quite off the cuff and quick thinking to breadcrumb the role, unless he has a one-shot mafia ability. And if he was mafia why ask if it was day or night? That makes sense if TS is legit because he would be confused because Ender that claimed the same role as him.
No offence to Twistedspoon but it would be serious quick thinking to do this in the next post

2 minutes

after Ender's claim.


I know TS and NE suspected each-other on day 1 and voted accordingly so I will take more of a look at that.

By the way I never saw any feed back on if or what he took of NE/TS after.

hmmmmm
Rhinox did you ever answer this question from Max?

@Farside and Rhinox: Why did the two of you instantly beleive the result from Twistedspoon? As far as I remember he was on both of your suspect lists.

[Twistedspoon]

Maxous is prob-town to myself

course at times like this I wish I had another investigation

@Quilly: any news from yourself? I want to hear from our confirmed townie

[Maxous]

@TS: Why do you think Farside is mafia?

Why are we even talking about TS today? We shouldm't even be considering lynching him today. If he's still alive in LyLo, then we can argue whether or not he's scum.

*does'nt get it

What is the difference when we do it if we determine TS the most likely to be mafia?

[farside22]

Maxous: Why are you questing about TS when you were the one pointing out the timing of his claim? Are you suspicious of him? If so why defend him yesterday? If not what is the point of your questions then?

[Maxous]

I think Twistedspoon is town.

~~There is nothing more useless in this world than an unasked question~~ O:)

Even if I read somebody as town I will question them if I would like something explained. There is always the possibility my read of that person's alignment is wrong.

And just because I read somebody as town does'nt mean I don't want thier suspicions and votes explained.

[Duplicity]

I should be caught up within 24 hours.

[neil1113]

Bump for vote count...