Newbie 1081: Showdown in Newbtown (Game Over, Mafia win)

[chkflip]

It's Saturday evening... we've given shotty more than enough time and he's AWOL. Go figure.

[Seeker99]

It's Saturday evening... we've given shotty more than enough time and he's AWOL. Go figure.

Yeah, I expected this.
I suppose we are giving him until midnight, unless there are objections.
He probably gave up, as he didn't really have any /actual/ evidence against anybody.

[Antihero]

Vote Count #22

chkflip - 1 (h3ll0)
drmyshottyizsik - 3 (Workdawg, Seeker99, chkflip)
h3ll0 - 1 (thunderwielder)
Workdawg - 1 (drmyshottyizsik)

Not Voting: Bulvious

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch. Deadline is May 9th.

[Bulvious]

/vote drmyshottyizsik

Obvious reasons.

[Bulvious]

Or I guess, if necessary...

Vote: drmyshottyizsik

[Antihero]

Final Vote Count of Day 2

chkflip - 1 (h3ll0)
drmyshottyizsik - 4 (Workdawg, Seeker99, chkflip, Bulvious)
h3ll0 - 1 (thunderwielder)
Workdawg - 1 (drmyshottyizsik)

Not Voting: No one

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch. Deadline is May 9th.

[Antihero]

I'm too lazy to write a mod scene right now. If shotty wants a flavored death, he can PM me.

drmyshottyizsik, Townie, has been lynched!

It's Night 2 now. 72 hours for choices.

[Antihero]

Bulvious, Townie, has been shot!

It's now Day 3. With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch. Deadline is May 31.

[chkflip]

MYLO, AWESOME.

I sincerely doubt everyone on Shotty's wagon was town. Discuss.

[thunderwielder]

It also seems less likely that both Mafia were on Shotty's wagon. My

FoS

is still on h3ll0.

Also, Chk, you can discuss the same question you posed to all of us remaining alive. Who do you think is Mafia then, WorkDawg or Seeker, since you obviously don't suspect yourself.
I need to reread everyone's slots and I'll get back to you.

[chkflip]

V/LA Friday through Sunday

- partying in the woods.

Well, we have two players alive with immense and strong logic. I don't think you're both town; if you were, it's only logical that we would've lynched scum by now. Yet, somehow, we haven't. I fail to see why "scummy behavior" would be strong enough for the level of your intellect. I just fail to see it.

NOBODY VOTE

! If you're town, both mafia can orchestrate a speed-lynch and boom. They win. We have to use this day to the max.

[Workdawg]

Geeze. This is bad news. I'm inclined to agree with the above that it's highly likely scum was in on that lynch. I'll have to go back and reread the end of the last day. I was so sure shotty was scum that I wasn't really paying that much attention to the end. I guess he just stopped caring about us.

[Bulvious]

Bah! Go town!

[Workdawg]

I've had a look over the end of D2 and here are some thoughts.

First of all, the fact that Bulvious was 1/4 the wagon and was the NK seems really strange to me. I agree with chkflip and thunder, it would be a terrible play (or REALLY risky gambit) on the scums part. Not only to be on the same wagon going into LYLO, but then to also NK someone else on the same wagon.

That said, I don't think chkflip ever replied to the questions brought against him before... I'd like to see that. (Post 471)

I checked out chkflip's voting pattern again now that D2 is over. (Ignoring RVS)

Post 232 he votes for ST (

chkflip

)
Post 247 he votes for Fatso (alnpka,

chkflip

)
Post 388 he votes for Zdenek (Workdawg, alnpka,

chkflip

)
Post 486 he votes for Workdawg (shotty,

chkflip

)
Post 553 he votes for shotty (Workdawg, seeker,

chkflip

)

I have to say, I find it a bit interesting. He's only ever once been first on someone's wagon... and he's also been third on both of the lynch wagons.

[thunderwielder]

I think the vote to kill Bulvious stemmed from the fact that no one had voiced suspicions about him. Or at least not very recently. Seeker even praised him about being the most understandable in posts.

Al has taken a lot of pressure. Also, why lynch the new inexperienced guy?
Chk has taken pressure right before the Day two lynch. So don't lynch him.
Workdawg has gotten pressure from shotty, who just died, so why lynch him.
H3ll0 has been very heavily suspected by me. Which I still think has a lot of legitimacy.
And I've been put under pressure for the actions of my predecessors Fatso and Kard.

So Bulvious is really the only vote.
(Also, funny post, Bulvious. I laughed.)

I would like h3ll0 to respond to my previous post, because he is my number one suspect. Especially now after the agreement of someone in the Shotty slot and someone outside of it are Mafia. And since there's only H3ll0 and I, I am really quite sure about his scumminess. Unless there's a couple really brilliant players in the duo of Work/Chk. If this happens... well, you will have fooled me completely.
I am torn about my secondary suspicions, and keep going back and forth and to and fro in my head through reasonings and logics. Right now, I'm really not too sure.

[chkflip]

I think we need to deal with primary suspicions and lynch scum before we delve too deep into scumpairs. That's what I'm doing with ISO's right now, at least, but you can do what you want.

Workdawg sure is trying to go for the easy mislynch, amirite?

[Seeker99]

Woah I didn't even know that Day 3 had started yet o.0

I don't really have any reads on anybody yet, but I think that Chk and h3llo should stop trying to evade the questions of players who are pressuring them.

And Thunder, your last paragraph is kinda confusing. What are you talking about?

[thunderwielder]

@Seeker
I was talking about the previous comment by Chk, saying that there's probably a Mafia who voted for Bulvious. Me, who said there's probably a Mafia who didn't vote for Bulvious. And Workdawg, who agreed with both of those statements.
I was using this argument saying that if we follow these statements, H3ll0 is definitely in my books for Mafia, since I know I'm town and we're the only two that didn't vote for Bulvious.
I feel Chk and Work are also both focusing around this argument, but looking at each other instead of outside who voted for Bulvious.

Also, saying that you don't have any reads is a little bit of a cop-out. Try to find some information on people, and back up your cases. Chances are, you'll be left by the Mafia until the endgame, and it may end up being your choice between who to lynch. If so, you need to have suspicions on people and be able to have reads on them. I'd suggest starting now and figuring out who your suspects are. You made minimal contribution to the previous day, only jumping on my bandwagon, and then on the shotty bandwagon, not really providing much to the town. I don't think you're scum, so it's time to start acting a bit more pro-town.

[Workdawg]

-snip-
Workdawg sure is trying to go for the easy mislynch, amirite?

LOL. Way to deflect and not address the case against you AGAIN. Were you just hoping I'd forget and you could slide under the radar? That seems pretty scummy to me. If I'm pushing for a "mislynch" then tell me why; so far you haven't.

@thunder

I actually hadn't really even looked at it from the "who wasn't on Bulvious' wagon" approach, but I think you have an excellent point. If there was only one scum on shotty's wagon, then there's also one scum who's not. Based on that logic, there is one scum in {chkflip, me, seeker} and one scum in {h3ll0, thunder}. Right now, I'd put my money on chkflip and h3ll0 based on that... However, as chkflip said, hunting in scumpairs isn't going to help until we actually know who scum is. We need to thoroughly analyze everyone and decide on ONE person who is scum for today. Once we've got that figured out we can start on who is the scum buddy.

My previous vote analysis

Sorry it was so short before, I was pretty tired and wanted to get some info out there. What his voting pattern says to me is that he's trying to avoid being an instigator (being the first to vote for someone) because that tends to draw more attention. He has also been in on both lynches right near the end. Scum usually want to be getting on the wagon in the middle because it makes them look more innocent if a mislynch occurs. They can try to hide under the idea that others have also voted and they weren't totally convinced. Both the first and last votes are usually subjected to extra scrutiny, which is something scum want to avoid.

[chkflip]

MODSKEE: V/LA from Friday, Mar. 13 through Sunday, Mar. 15

Getting shitfaced with my bro in the woods for his birthday.

A little rushed. Just thought I'd reiterate. Thanks!

I'll be honest, though. My head hasn't really been in this game. Expect that to change when I get back.

[thunderwielder]

For me, if h3ll0 isn't scum... well... I'll be gobsmacked. I'll poop my pants.


I'd also really h3ll0 to post some thoughts...
Because I'm getting agitated. It's been almost three days since the day started.

Chk, hope you have fun with your bro. Sounds like a good time.

[h3ll0]

I'm sorry, almost forgot about the game to be honest.

@thunderwielder: What is it that you want me to respond to? Your opinion that there is one scum in the wagon and one not in it? I'm not sure if it is valid, as while it is highly unlikely that both scums will avoid the wagon (ignoring the fact that I know my own alignment), it is also not implausible that both the scums are on the wagon. In fact, I believe that both scums would tend to join the shotty wagon, as it is pretty easy for the mafia to hide in it. Judging from the reactions/interactions between the three players, Workdawg and chkflip are unlikely to be both mafias.

I will re-read the thread later.

[Seeker99]

I haven't been coming out with logical arguments? Or are you too blinded with the fact that I attacked you replacee which he couldn't/wouldn't reflute?

Nope, I'm definitely not blinded. And a gibe is not a rebuttal.
(look, h3ll0, that's how you answer a question. With a sentence. NOT with another question.)
Show me your logical arguments. Because right now I haven't seen any. QUOTE THEM for me. I think I've provided enough of your non-arguments.

I had more than one reasons to vote him. First was that he was constantly fence-sitting on issues. The second was that he keeps saying that he was suspicious of me, and yet could not provide any examples of what he was suspicious about.

Well, if you had more than one reason to vote for him, why didn't you state that when you made your case for him. Instead of saying something that wasn't actually anything.

To be honest, I don't buy Fatso's "Medical Reasons" as valid reasons to drop out of the game. It seems too coincidental that his "medical reasons" popped out immediately after he was subjected to a valid, albeit harsh case.

I don't think it was very harsh at all. I think it was a good case calling him out on things that he was doing wrong (from Chk). However, after Chk made his huge case, and Fatso kind of responded half-heartedly, and Chk responded with another big list - Bulvious pointed out that Fatso's actions were more likely newb town, and it seemed like Chk agreed with him.
If your thoughts about Fatso being scum were so strong, why didn't you follow up with them? You could still be pursuing that case. Instead you jumped on the Chk bandwagon - the guy who made a much stronger case against Fatso than you, and are now trying to get him lynched, if my memory of the last vote count serves.
Either way, if you're still feeling so strongly about Fatso and now me being a member of the Mafia, why don't you pursue it and back it up with sound, logical arguments, instead of jumping on whoever you think's going to get lynched the quickest.
Other than Shotty, who I'm pretty sure is your scum buddy. I guess we'll probably see by Saturday.

@Thunder

Was this the post that you wanted h3llo to respond to?

[chkflip]

@chkflip

First of all, sorry for the unfortunate events occuring (sick and then getting kicked out).

I have to say though that your recent actions are coming off a bit scummy to me for a couple of reasons.

1. Your WTF stance on me and Kard. You said you'll reply to this, so I'll just wait for that.
2. Your "Zd is town stance." I find this mildly suspicious simply because the only time you ever mentioned him was in your first analysis post where you cite his meta as justification for a town read. Yet you are willing to join his wagon at a critical time simply because he was flip-flopping his vote? Then you end up not being around for last 36 hours of the day to compound the suspicion. I don't want to kick you while you're down, so to speak, but it seems quite convenient that you got in on the middle of the wagon with a fairly weak reason and then weren't around. A weak "town read" on someone, a weak reason to vote, and then some convenient absence.
3.

...
My next post will also have some death analysis because I think it'll help us now that

we lynched our power role

D1.

It's a mild slip, but it sure sounds to me like you KNOW that the cop is our only power role in this game. There could still be a doc around, unless you happen to know there isn't...

1. It's convenient almost to the point of insanity that both slots, regardless of who's in it, has had null to town reads on one another without much discrepancy toward one another. It has seemed and still seems quite convenient, that's all.

2. I still feel bad for going back on that, but I've never been one to give too much clout in meta regardless of the fact that I was the one that brought it up. Next time I think I find something that pertinent, I'll definitely be sticking to my gut's guns.

3. You've since said that this wasn't much of a slip. Did you still want me to reiterate?

p.s. Re-reading. Camping trip was quite entertaining. I'd like people's lists of reads and maybe a sentence or two on why each read is where it is if you don't mind.

[thunderwielder]

@Seeker

, yes that was the post.

@H3ll0

, I was still interested in a response to my previous arguments against you. Because I wasn't satisfied with your responses to much of what I've posted about you previously.
And I'd also like you to post your thoughts on who you suspect and why. I know, you're re-reading. I think we all are at this point.

And Seeker, although that was the post, how about you post some of your own material? I still have yet to hear original thought from you.

As for My

LIST

I need to read through again, but right now I'm saying

SCUM

h3ll0 - Read my previous posts about him for my evidence. He is flying just below the radar.

TOWN

Work - I think he's posted very logical arguments and thorough posts. The amount of information and conversation he has generated makes me think he's town. Also, I think Sarafish was a useless town, but a town none the less. I couldn't find any devious schemes in her posts, and she game me a town read too. In response to Chk's Work/Kard null reading, I can't base anything off of them, but for me Sarafish is screaming newb town, and Work hasn't done anything to disprove it.

NULL

Seeker
Chkflip

I'm not sure. I keep going back and forth. My gut says Aln was newb town, but the fact that they both haven't posted any original thought is also suspicious to me. I think Chk has had some in depth cases, but it seems pretty convenient that he went against his gut, helped take out Zd. Then also helped take out Bulv. I also think, and I'd have to look back again, but that his cases were usually directed at fairly newbie targets, and he was able to pick apart their posts and twist them a little bit more easily than he could of with other people. If I had to call it right now, I'd say Seeker Town, Chk Scum, but I'm still up in the air.

I agree, though, I would like to see everyone's lists.