Open 300 - Mafia on Midol (Town Wins!)

[Plum]

Dude, if you really suspected Llama (and thought about why he'd do this as scum because 1-for-1 trade wouldn't be in scum's favor) you'd have stated your suspicions and called for any counterclaiming real Cop and gotten that 1-for-1 trade if you were right.

I'm not going to explain here in detail why a Cop would crumb his Innocent results (IF HE WERE KILLED OVERNIGHT), and it's possible you wouldn't have thought of that. The reaction is

still

off,

especially

if you had a Cop read on someone else.

[Ranmaru]

Yeah I wasn't thinking of that. I don't care about inno's. I kinda didn't want to out Crazy so quickly, but I guess you are right about that.

I'm looking forward to the new VCA.

[Punkin]

Well then, I've got some good news for you...

Here's the new VCA, raw version. It may help to read it along side yesterday's because we've shorthanded some of the expanded conclusions. Xine and I discussed Llama's claim at length and neither of us believes he is faking. However, old habits die hard and so he and his innocents got a different shade of green than those players confirmed to us by the mod.

AGar

(1): Zorblag

DemonHybrid

(4): Papa Zito, Crazy,

Fate

, Plum
Papa Zito (1):

DemonHybrid

Sudo_Nym

(2):

LlamaFluff

, Cyberbob
Plum (1):

Nobody Special

chkflip (1):

SocioPath

Crazy (2): Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

Not voting (6):

Punkin

,

AGar

,

Oman

,

Sudo_Nym

, Thor665, chkflip

DH starts out as all town and doesn't have staying power? Not likely. One scum among PZ/Crazy/Plum. THor and chk are not scum together.

Punkin

(1):

Sudo_Nym

AGar

(1): Zorblag

DemonHybrid

(7): Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum,

Punkin

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, chkflip

SocioPath

(1):

DemonHybrid

Sudo_Nym

(4):

LlamaFluff

, Cyberbob, Crazy, Thor665
Plum (1):

Nobody Special

Crazy (1):

Nikanor

Not voting (2):

AGar

,

Oman

AGar's flip really helps with this one. Major brownies for Ran. Scumteam is one of PZ/Plum/CES/chk + one of bob/Crazy/Thor.

Punkin

(1):

Nobody Special

AGar

(1): Zorblag

Nachomamma8

(4): Plum,

SocioPath

, chkflip,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(5):

LlamaFluff

, Cyberbob, Thor665,

Fate

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (5):

Nikanor

,

AGar

,

Oman

,

Punkin

, chkflip

Nobody Special

(2): Crazy, Papa Zito

Not voting (0):

Not much new here. Flips simply reaffirm scumpoints for CES/chk and brownies for Crazy. PZ left the crumbling replacement wagon to park at second on NS for the rest of the day; looks like someone who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and decided to play it safe.

AGar

(2): Zorblag,

LlamaFluff

Nachomamma8

(2):

SocioPath

,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(3): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip
chkflip (3):

Nachomamma8

, Plum,

Nobody Special

Crazy (2):

Nikanor

,

Oman

Nobody Special

(6): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Punkin

,

Fate

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

AGar

Not voting (0):

This VC continues to be awesome. Pressure was building on two scum slots and Sudo was clearly the mislynch du jour. Chk gets one billion scumpoints and the context should start showing a scum flow toward Sudo with a desire to end the day. AGar's defensive knee-jerk was to distance on the other big scumwagon. This is his goon-not-RB mentality showing through but also suggests he was the only scum on NS at that point: brownies for Crazy/PZ/CES. Bonus brownie for CES because bussing back-to-back is less likely.

The question then becomes, if Crazy/PZ/CES = town, where is the second scumbag? Cyber/Thor makes little sense because otherwise how did they manage the turnaround? Plum doesn't makes sense for the same reasons CES + AGar doesn't make sense. Zorb's vote wouldn't make him a likely candidate either except he was only there because of his meta-wide alphabetical lurker thing, which doesn't leave him a choice.

Most likley scumteam by this count is Ran + chk.

AGar

(1): Zorblag

Nachomamma8

(2):

SocioPath

,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(8): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

Punkin

,

LlamaFluff

,

AGar

,

Oman

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (2):

Nachomamma8

,

Nobody Special

Crazy (1):

Nikanor

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum

Not voting (0):

CES gets major scumpoints here. If one buddy parked on NS, it was Plum. Ran threw away his vote like nothing was going on. There is

at least

one scum among these three, maybe both.

Xine has pointed out that parkers from earlier counts (PZ/chk/Thor) may be skewing the logic here. Obv, we will deal with those caveats while formulating our conclusions.

Nachomamma8

(2):

SocioPath

,

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(7): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

LlamaFluff

,

AGar

,

Oman

, Cogito Ergo Sum
chkflip (1):

Nobody Special

Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru

Twilight Sparkle

(1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1):

Twilight Sparkle

Nobody Special

(5): Crazy, Papa Zito,

Fate

, Plum,

Punkin

Not voting (0):

Ran throwing his vote away again. Interesting that he is the only unconfirmed dissenter and the only one to move during this count, and yet is still acting like there is no such thing as a Sudo-NS dilemma. Really not liking the behavior here; we should read the context for this. At least one scum is entrenched, probably on Sudo.

Nachomamma8

(1):

Sudo_Nym

Sudo_Nym

(10): Cyberbob, Thor665, chkflip,

LlamaFluff

,

AGar

,

Oman

, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ranmaru,

SocioPath

,

Fate

chkflip (1):

Nobody Special

Twilight Sparkle

(1):

Nachomamma8

Crazy (1):

Twilight Sparkle

Nobody Special

(4): Crazy, Papa Zito, Plum,

Punkin

Not voting (0):

Obv, scum is 100% on wagons here. We were discussing the possible placement of both unconfirmed scum on Sudo and, by conventional wisdom, the most likely would be one of CES/Ran + one of Thor/chk. However, Ran's strange Goldilocks behavior suddenly makes sense when you think about him replacing in to have to choose between voting a buddy and jumping on the only mislynch option when two buddies are already on late. CES + Ran scumteam explains this perfectly.

SocioPath

(1):

LlamaFluff

Nobody Special

(5): Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, Papa Zito,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

Not voting (18):

Punkin

, Cyberbob,

AGar

,

Nachomamma8

,

Oman

, Papa Zito,

SocioPath

, Ranmaru, Thor665, Plum, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum,

LlamaFluff

,

Twilight Sparkle

, Crazy,

Nobody Special

I find it hard to believe there is not at least one scum on NS at this point. Scumpoints for CES/PZ. The former picked Sudo over NS yesterday.

Papa Zito (1): Thor665

SocioPath

(2): chkflip,

Nobody Special

Nobody Special

(8): Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, Papa Zito,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

,

AGar

, Cyberbob,

LlamaFluff

Not voting (5):

Nachomamma8

,

Oman

, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy

Scumpoints for Thor/chk for the obvious reason. Which of them is more likely depends on how NS was playing the game. Was his SP vote defense (aka jump on the all-town situation) or WIFOM-for-Yth (aka jump up behind a buddy to game the analysis). Looming self-hammer suggests the latter.

Papa Zito (1): Thor665

SocioPath

(1): chkflip

Nobody Special

(9): Cogito Ergo Sum,

SocioPath

, Papa Zito,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

,

AGar

, Cyberbob,

LlamaFluff

,

Nobody Special

Not voting (5):

Nachomamma8

,

Oman

, Ranmaru, Plum, Crazy

I was about to say there's not much information here but Xine caught something good. AGar was pushing for a quick day, as was NS, as was Llama due to his role. Mixed motivations means the rest of the scum were probably hanging back. This amounts to townpoints for bob, scumpoints for Ran/Plum/Crazy.

AGar

(5): Crazy, Cyberbob, Plum,

LlamaFluff

,

Twilight Sparkle

chkflip (2): Thor665,

Punkin

Cogito Ergo Sum (1): Ranmaru

LlamaFluff

(2):

SocioPath

, Papa Zito
Crazy (1):

AGar

Not voting (4):

Oman

, chkflip, Cogito Ergo Sum

Scum don't want to bus two buddies in a row, and certainly not their RB. There's a decent chance that the AGar wagon is all town at this point. Scum are going to be pushing a likely alternative or afraid to vote at all. Thor attacked someone who'd been on suspect lists for two days, PZ added weight to a town-on-town situation, one of these two is scum. Ran threw his vote away again and receives a delicious brownie. One of chk/CES is def-scum.

Looking at this VC and the context following, the reason for our Llama vote should be more clear. My intent was to create an all likely-town alternative to AGar. As a bonus, it was on his biggest detractor, tempting chainsaws. I think I might have been a little too overt and the scumz wouldn't bite.

AGar

(8): Crazy, Cyberbob, Plum,

LlamaFluff

,

Twilight Sparkle

,

Punkin

, chkflip,

SocioPath

Ranmaru (1): Cogito Ergo Sum
Thor665 (2): Papa Zito, Ranmaru
chkflip (1): Thor665
Crazy (1):

AGar

Not voting (1):

Oman

Assuming we were right about the all-town initial three on AGar: either chk is scum or this was an all-town lynch. Scumpoints for chk, especially because Llama said that AGar-scum meant chk-town.

This may be the most likley situation I've ever seen for an all-town lynch, so we're not ruling that out prima facie, but the remaining unconfirmed each seem unlikley to be scum with one another. The only exception to this is CES + Thor. Ergo, if chk is proven town, scumteam is Thor + CES and if one or both of Thor/CES are proven town, chk is def-scum.

Note also that the two unconfirmed non-voters became uncomfortable and jumped into the fray. CES throwing his vote away on OMGUS could go either way. Chk's vote makes sense as the late bus, especially with the only real alternative being the obv-trap on Llama. In examining this, we looked back at chk's voting habits. He has been a mid-to-late wagoner in every case except when NS was under heavy fire on D2, at which point he placed the initial vote on a townie. This discrepancy is odd from all perspectives but makes zero sense from a chk-is-town PoV.

[Punkin]

@Ran:

That "breadcrumb" you caught on Crazy is interesting because it also could have been taken as a veiled call for the double-bus. What was your read of Crazy before he made that statement?

Dude, if you really suspected Llama...

There is no way scum with a RB gambits a cop-claim by lynching said RB. That's staking the entire game on a coinflip and, frankly, Llama isn't that stupid. I have a hard time believing that anyone who put a moment's thought into this would even consider it. Is Ran really that clueless? Then again, if he's town, he's pretty clueless.

[Ranmaru]

It was null. I have a hard time reading him because I lynched him in my newbie, and he came up town. Null leaning scum though, because he says I may be town, but isn't sure. Still null leaning scum because he always has weak stances.

[Ranmaru]

I didn't think it was wrong to ask for a crumb since Llama claimed cop. What Plum says does make sense. I'll try to be more elaborate in the future when regarding claims/crumbs.

[Crazy]

Well, that wasn't a breadcrumb I made. I'm not the cop, and I believe Llama. I'm slightly disappointed that his innocents are outed already, but meh.

Ranmaru is giving me town vibes now. I think I'll have to reconsider some things. UNVOTE: Ranmaru

I'm glad that Punkin's VCA points to chk-scum, since he was my preferred lynch at the start of the day. I'll look over what I missed tomorrow; since I haven't read everything yet, but if a chk wagon formed I'd be quite happy.

[Crazy]

And yeah, a lot of the reason I voted Ranmaru was because I worried that chk and/or Thor were Llama's confirmed innocents, so yeah.

[Cyberbob]

It was null. I have a hard time reading him because I lynched him in my newbie, and he came up town. Null leaning scum though, because he says I may be town, but isn't sure. Still null leaning scum because he always has weak stances.

can we lynch you yet pls

[Ranmaru]

It was null. I have a hard time reading him because I lynched him in my newbie, and he came up town. Null leaning scum though, because he says I may be town, but isn't sure. Still null leaning scum because he always has weak stances.

can we lynch you yet pls

What?

[Ranmaru]

Thor, any thoughts?

[Thor665]

Considering the unconfirmeds;

Punkin is a solid town read, and I have Cyberbob as the same. Crazy as well, his actions Day 1 screamed town who was trying harder than most everybody else. If he's scum I'm eating my beard.
Plum is either town or is totally faking me out, but her early play of gunning down for both NS and AGar (and AGar off just vague gut - and she really got the conversation going that way) makes me call her a pretty safe town bet.
I'm still buying chk as scum off of Punkin's last VCA, and his new one still has him as a decent option.
I've got a town read on Ranmaru, her play is very reminiscent of my early town play.
I still get bad vibes off Papa Z.
CES I'll call scummy just for Day 1 and the hop skip twice onto Sudo and one of those off NS, but mostly his iso is gak and gives me nothing but bad vibes which is, unfortunately, his meta of choice.

Probably my call would be Papa Z and chk the scum, with CES as an outside angle.
I feel very confident with the town reads on Cyberbob, Plum, and Crazy. I don't think anyone cares about my read on Punkin.

Everything else is light fluff reads.

Possible support for this wagon exists.

Vote: chkflip

@Ranmaru - no.

[Thor665]

Oh, and I'm skeevy around Ran's PZ push. If she is scum I would say you should all pay *more* attention to my PZ opinion despite my town read opinion on her.

[Ranmaru]

I don't know what makes Zito so town. He makes less content than bob does.

[Thor665]

I don't know why anyone would think he's town either. I'm just surprised I'm the first saying it. Doesn't make him look town.
Though I think either you're the king on non-sequiturs or just really misread my last post.

[Ranmaru]

Meaning, I thought you were scummy for the DH wagon thing. Crazy too. Just thought PZ was lurking pretty hard, and seemed scummier than you at the moment I pushed him.

I was ok with pushing PZ because he wasn't at ALL townie and he even asked for a case on himself AS IF he was the towniest of townies.

[Ranmaru]

Oh and his vote on you seemed like he was WAITING for you to say something that would seem like you slipped up or something.

[Thor665]

You have convinced me, I now have a scum read on Papa Z...
I still stand by my logic in the post where I outlined that a scum flip from you increases Papa Z = scum in my book.

[Crazy]

PZ didn't know that Fate died. I see that more likely as being mistaken town than WIFOM-ing scum. I don't think that scum would think that people would fall for that kind of WIFOM, so that makes me think it's less likely that PZ is scum.

As for everyone else, I don't know, maybe they think the same thing, or they think PZ is town for some other reason.

Yeah, Ranmaru, I know you hate WIFOM arguments...

[Ranmaru]

No, I do not like wifom. Plus, I wouldn't rely on that to base PZ's alignment, because it is null. Scum could have forgotten, town too.

Crazy, what was your read on PZ before he forgot about fate, and give a brief description.

[chkflip]

Crazy, Crazy, Crazy, ooooh. Thought you always be miiine. Miiiiine.

Sociovote was prod-dodge. Simple as. Crazyvote was from my thought that you were scum.

Was there another question? I forget now.

Punkin's "connections" with me to the dead scum is mostly because I scumhunted them. That's silly.

Thor pretty much solidified my scumread of him with his response to the VCA.

UNVOTE: Ranmaru
VOTE: Thor665

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

PZ didn't know that Fate died.

He did know. He just forgot really quickly.

VCA is bunk.

Ranmaru is scums.

[singersigner]

Oman and Twilight Sparkle have been prodded.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Got the prod, sorry about that. Weekend + not catching up with other heads caused the lag.

Expect content sometime today.

[Thor665]

Thor pretty much solidified my scumread of him with his response to the VCA.

Since this is the line preventing your vote being OMGUS - I'd like you to explain 'how' I did this.