Mini 1137: Long Overdue Mafia [Game Over!]

[mikemike778]

rhinox if a 1-shot gunsmith investigated a player who died would they be able to re-use their abillity the next night

And a reminder that given I've been accused of lying about the 1-shot use of my power that answering this in relation to a Neighbourizer may be more relevant.

[Faraday]

YOU FUCKIN GUCJ FUJDEIDjdjdjdddddddddddddddddddddddddddd FUCK J SPASTIC

[Faraday]

I CAN'T FIND THE FIRST HALF OF MY ANALSYS.AWESOME. WRITING LONG POSTS IS SO MUCH FUCKING FUN I CAN'T WAIT TO SPEND AN HOUR DOING IT AGAIN LIKE. FUCK.

[Rhinox]

No comment on the various 1-shot mechanic questions.

[Setael]

If both Cecily and Mike are town, and you're scum and people believe your claim then yeah, it helps you a lot wouldn't you say? You knew you were up for a lynch if chk flipped town, so your motivation to fake claim is to avoid that happening. If enough townies believe your claim, it would likely save you. Especially where Cecily is one of your targets, she should be pretty easy to get lynched after yesterday's wagon.

Eh? If I'm scum I don't know what power town have left and risk exposing myself to a counterclaim from an investigative role or w/e (hint there won't be, it's just me). if I REALLY want to lock it onto me and cecily why not claim a guilty somewhere?

Now that no investigative role has flipped, I'm more inclined to believe Faraday, since I don't see scum claiming an investigative role when there could be a full cop out there. If he's lying the only PRs the town had were 2 1-shot Neighborizers (assuming Mike is telling the truth, which I think is likely), and a neighborizer is the weakest no use role ever. It can be a scum role so it doesn't confirm anyone to us. Even if there are only 2 scum to make up for the lack of town power, it still doesn't seem very balanced. Frankly, even with a 1-shot gunsmith and 2 1-shot Neighborizers, there could be just 2 scum since this is the weakest town setup I've ever played. I'd love for others to weigh in on this since I'm not as familiar with setups, but yeah.

@Faraday - Hi. Why are you so sure Bub is town? He posted to claim and didn't bother to acknowledge my case. Maybe he thought he could get away with that because

you

totally dismissed it. If you are town, you're being way too quick to confirm townies with very little reason to.

vote Bub Bidderskins

Ignore

that

.

[havingfitz]

I think Faraday is giving Bub a town pass for comments made by Jerbs....iirc. I don't think I'd feel safe excluding anyone from consideration though like you [Setael]...I would be inclined to believe faraday as 1) I know his coments regarding me are accurate and when he made them...there could have been a chance that I was a pro-town PR with a gun (a 1-shot vig?) though unlikely, and 2) a 1-shot gunsmith does at least give the town a little bit of info and if it didn't exist...then town would have a pretty crappy hand dealt to them.

Based on the fact I believe there is a 2nd scum on the Void mislynch...and if I am to believe Faraday's claim...that would leave Bub for serious consideration. But I need to look at him closer.

If he's not scum then scum are poised for a quicklynch and a win. Something worth considering Setael.

Anyone interested in a no lynch?

[Faraday]

I can tell you guys we're almost certainly working with 2 scum + a traitor, so 1 + a traitor left. I'll tell you why later, but we're underpowered for 3 group scum even if everyone's telling the truth and probably overpowered for 2 scum just because of the 1-shot vig alone.

[Faraday]

wait I just told you why ;_; but I meant i'll make it look super sexy later when I explain the possible set-ups and what I think we're dealing with.

[havingfitz]

I would prefer to not assume we only are dealing with a 2 player scum team. And where is the traitor idea coming from? Did I miss something or are we (ou Faraday) just hypothesizing?

[Faraday]

yeah set-up spec is kinda my thing, i enjoy it, so yeah it's complete guesswork, but educated guesswork based on the fact i've modded a fair bit and review way too many set-ups. working on a post now inbetween other stuff.

[mikemike778]

OK, agreed with Satael that given the massclaim Faraday is almost certainly telling the truth. Neighbourizer is pretty much a glorified vanilla role really so if Faraday is being economical with the truth then it would leave us with only a one-shot vig which is probably unlikely. Therefore I'm reluctantly wiping faraday off my scum list and on the same basis Fitz (even if he was some sort of traitor then without a gun he's harmless).

So that leaves

Bub
Cesily
Satael

In that order. When ISO ing Bub during Day 3 I did become pretty convinced he was scum so on that basis he is back to my number 1 choice to lynch with Ces as his buddy or possibly Fitz if faraday is right with his traitor thoughts.

[Faraday]

Possible set-up's

Option 1: 3 scum started (2 left)

The only actual realistic posibillity here is that all the claimed Pr's would need to be telling the truth, not remotely close to balanced if not. 2 1-shot neighbourisers and a 1-shot vig and a 1-shot gunsmith versus 3 goons? I mean I guess it actually might not be completely unbalanced but we have a problem!

Oh, actually, my bad re-writing this now and I suppose cecily/bub are a possible scumteam since people seem to think my town tell is retarded I dunno, lots of 1-shots but it seems like an underpowered town to me, based on my vague idea of game balance (faramod unite!). Maybe Setael is scum?? (yes I'm joking shut up)

Option 2: 2 scum started (1 left)

This leaves the following posibillites afaict: (acronyms like a boss, btw)

a)Mikemike is a scum neighbouriser

. This means the set-up is 1-shot gunsmith/1-shot vig/1-shot neighbourisers vs goon and 1(?) shot neighbouriser. POSSIBLE. I think it's the only realistic way to balance a 2 scum group set-up but on the other hand something like 1-shot rb'er, or 1-shot rolecop would make much more sense? And even then, eh. 1-shot vig in a 2 player scumgroup game is harsh. 13 players. town get 5 possible mislynches? Meh. Seems unlikely.

b)I'm scum

:

Yeah I know this isn't true, but you guys do not. 1shot vig + 2x1shot neighbourisers versus scum goon and scum ???. Not impossible, but once again a lot of the same problems apply as above. 1-shot vig and a 2 man scumteam just doesn't work for me. Oh 4 mislynches if the vig vig's wrong, but if he hits scum then like scum need 6? That's yeah, I don't think that's likely.

c) me and mike are both town, a vt is scum

Yeah, no. if the above isn't likely this is even more unlikely, although I guess not theoretically impossible it's just bad on scum. So nope, ruling it out.

Okay, see I don't think either of those are very likely

at all

. The blue one is the most likely out of these from my pov, but even at that I think it's a stretch. Not 3 scum, not 2 scum. Traitor fits this set-up perfectly in terms of power.

So if we're dealing with 2+traitor it throws the cat amongst the pigeons. We can fairly much assume mikemike's not the traitor, as he'd know the mafia and be able to neighbourise one of them. Ooh, actually mike's neighbouriser thing could be a recruitment abillity for bub traitor [/tinfoilhat] but bub is town I think

Sorry anyway.

Option 3: 2scum + traitor
A) I'm lying.

The set-up is 1shot vig +2x1-shot neighbourisers vs 2 scum + traitor. Obviously you have to assume I claim gunsmith here as a gambit in this case, if I'm traitor havingfitz is who I'd clear I guess? I mean, I dunno I think the town are fairly weak here if scum have any sort of pr, and even without it. plus there's the fact I as scum would have no idea if there was a hidden investigative role and would be risking myself to a watcher/tracker/cop/gunsmith god knows what counterclaim. This probably works best for me traitor as IIRC if the 2 group scum are lynched the traitor can't win UNLESS he can be recruited, which I guess is possible. Eh.

B) Mikemike is a scumneighbouriser.

This is possible, definitely possible. 2 1-shot neighbourisers on each side is pretty cool, actual has nice parity. vig/gunsmith is probably enough to balance the role. His reason for not reacting to voided's claim is okay, actually. But I'd question why he didn't push to defend him more if that was the case. Mikemike you say you thought the claim made him more likely to be town? Can you show us in your iso where you defended him, I don't really remember you doing that. Thanks.

C) We're both lying (lol).

Uh, anyone actually think there's 2 scum + traitor vs 1x1-shot vig and 1x-shot neighbouriser vs mafia neighbouriser? And that'd mean I'd be a traitor or something and locked myself into a fucking 50% chance of lynching my only chance of winning. This is impossible fmpov, but pretty much impossible from yours too. Actually literally impossible, bub confirmed him as having it, so that'd require all 3 of us to be scum.

D) We're both telling the truth

. 2x1-shot neighbourisers, my role + 1shot vig. Scum have traitor + goon +??? (maybe a rb'er?). I could see this too, except I think mikemike's responses have been scummyish. I don't know though, he's not scumlying about his roleclaim unless he's scum with bub. Sigh. This makes the most sense from a set-up point of view I think, but I'm having a hard time buying bub scum. Havingfitz traitor is POSSIBLE here with this, but ugh.

RhinoxWould a mafia traitor show up as 'having a gun' to a gunsmith, hypothetically

(just so you can see I got the same answer)

Did I miss any possibillites? Those are the ones that make sense right? Imma give more playerstuff in a bit but this post is long enough to give me some sort of disease.

Yes this post relies on a fair bit of assumptions and things like that but EH, fuck it I'm a baller >_>

[Faraday]

@Faraday - Hi. Why are you so sure Bub is town? He posted to claim and didn't bother to acknowledge my case. Maybe he thought he could get away with that because

you

totally dismissed it. If you are town, you're being way too quick to confirm townies with very little reason to.

vote Bub Bidderskins

Ignore

that

.

Hello Uh? >_> I don't know what to say.

Can you at least post a couple of sentences as to why bub is scummier than mike/cecily or have you changed your opinion on mike due to the claim? I mean, do you think jerbs scum replacing out is very likely to say that? I don't think i've ever seen a scumplayer do that it just seems something town would say when replacing out, ya know? Oh wait you did post a case, i'll look back and see, and maybe review his play but eh. I don't know Setael.

What do you think of my analysis? I.e. do you see bub as a traitor or as scum or do you think my analysis is way off >_>

[Rhinox]

RhinoxWould a mafia traitor show up as 'having a gun' to a gunsmith, hypothetically

A gunsmith would see a gun result on any player who could make a kill.

[Faraday]

RHINOX TELL THEM I'M A GUNSMITH

[Setael]

OK, agreed with Satael that given the massclaim Faraday is almost certainly telling the truth. Neighbourizer is pretty much a glorified vanilla role really so if Faraday is being economical with the truth then it would leave us with only a one-shot vig which is probably unlikely. Therefore I'm reluctantly wiping faraday off my scum list and on the same basis Fitz (even if he was some sort of traitor then without a gun he's harmless).

So that leaves

Bub
Cesily
Satael

In that order. When ISO ing Bub during Day 3 I did become pretty convinced he was scum so on that basis he is back to my number 1 choice to lynch with Ces as his buddy or possibly Fitz if faraday is right with his traitor thoughts.

This post gave me the creeps.

@Mike - I can't look back at what you posted D3 right now, but if you thought he was scum why is this the first you've mentioned it today? What made him get bumped from your top scum slot, and what made you want to put him back there?

[Faraday]

>_> can I take that one? Can I?

[Setael]

Faraday, hypothetical question. if you were part of a 2-man scum team and neither you nor your partner had a PR, would you be confident that the town had no investigative role?

I don't know though, he's not scumlying about his roleclaim unless he's scum with bub. Sigh. This makes the most sense from a set-up point of view I think, but I'm having a hard time buying bub scum. Havingfitz traitor is POSSIBLE here with this, but ugh.

So if you remove the statement made by whats-his-face when he replaced out, what's your read on bub? (yes I think scum replacing out might say that and surely have before. No, I won't be looking up examples.)

What do you think of my analysis? I.e. do you see bub as a traitor or as scum or do you think my analysis is way off >_>

I think he could be either. Maybe there's some merit to the possibility that scummike recruited bub.

[Faraday]

Eh, mikemike what changed your opinion on me? I thought I was scum a page ago, but as soon as Setael says I'm town I'm town?

[Faraday]

Faraday, hypothetical question. if you were part of a 2-man scum team and neither you nor your partner had a PR, would you be confident that the town had no investigative role?

Yes. Why do you ask?
>_>

<_<

But yeah, there wouldn't be. On the other hand if there's a 2 man scumgroup this

isn't

mylo.

[Faraday]

So if you remove the statement made by whats-his-face when he replaced out, what's your read on bub? (yes I think scum replacing out might say that and surely have before. No, I won't be looking up examples.)

No clue. Didn't pay much attention after that post, as I wrote him off as confirmed town. Will get on that now? Mehhhhhhh. Ignoring a town tell is weird but let me see.

[Faraday]

So if you remove the statement made by whats-his-face when he replaced out, what's your read on bub? (yes I think scum replacing out might say that and surely have before. No, I won't be looking up examples.)

No clue. Didn't pay much attention after that post, as I wrote him off as confirmed town. Will get on that now? Mehhhhhhh. Ignoring a town tell is weird but let me see.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Faraday is telling the truth. From the claims given, if he's lying then this setup is hilariously scum-favored.

I've done some thinking, and right now I'm pretty confidant that MikeMike is scum.

Back on D-2 when Pine fake-claimed tracker, he said that he tracked MikeMike and got nothing. However, if he was an actual tracker and tracked MikeMike on N-1 he

would

have found that MikeMike targetted Jahudo, assuming that MikeMike's telling the truth. However, he said that he got

nothing

. After that declaration was made, MikeMike had this to say:

Ok, I've been thinking about doing this for a while and I think it's a good decision because right now the alternative seems to be just lynching Pine then starting on tomorrow after someone else is nightkilled. I think that giving town a real incentive to use the full length of the day to discuss should give us more of a chance to draw out scum responses and that this will do that.

I am a One-shot vigilante. I am willing to shoot whoever the town thinks is the most scummy besides Pine by a democratic choice in night 2.
If you want me to count you as voting for someone to be shot tonight, put NightVote:playername in the last line of any post in normal text (unvotes likewise).
The decision will be made if any player has a)more than 50% of the votes, or b) significantly more votes than their nearest contender.

Given a Pine lynch seems pretty much a sure thing following his voided hammer and subsequent abandonment of the thread, this should give us a reason to extend the day as long as possible.

Well the problem with that is that scum may be able to intefere with your kill, not a good idea to discuss who you are planning to target (if you aren't telling fibs that is). Us naming names isn't the way to go ... use the info available to make your own mind up. This doesn't clear TO completely as scum could themselves have an extra kill one night but TO seems pretty risk averse to me - the way the game's gone so far, I don't see her fake claiming this.

Pine is obviously going to be the lynch for today ... was probably still trying to fabricate his story when he was rushed into revealing it before he was ready (he hadn't got to the bit about who he was going to track yet it seems).

Nontheless plenty of time no rush, we can wait a bit for his second and third posts before rushing anything.

And that was it for the day. If MikeMike was telling the truth, why didn't he claim right then and there? It isn't like neighborizer is a powerfull role that would be a huge loss to the town. Furthermore, here's Pine's self-hammer:

Yeah, there really isn't. I fucked up royally, and there's absolutely no way I'm going to talk my way out of this, and I'd rather deny you the rest of the discussion time.

VOTE: VOTE: Pine

Apologies to my scum partners.

I think Pine just realized that he implicated his scum-bud in his tracker claim and didn't want the truth to come out.

vote: MikeMike

That leaves the setup as:

One-shot vig
One-shot gunsmith
Town one-shot neighborizer

And 2.5-3 scum with a neighborizer. However, given what Rhinox said, Havingfitz may not be cleared by the gunsmith if he is the traitor, since traitors can't kill unless they are recruited by the scum team.

[Bub Bidderskins]

In response to Setael:

I voted Neil because I viewed him as the scummiest player at that time. I also viewed Pine as scummy, but not as much. I asked Neil what he thought about the Pine wagon because I wanted to get his reaction to it because at that moment I was thinking of a Pine/Neil scum team.

[Faraday]

Holy shit you fucking absolute beauty.

Vote mikemike