Mini 1152~Over!

[darkdude]

Shall I claim?

I have not done the calculations for No Lynch. But it's probably a bad idea as I'll just get lynched Day 4.

After you lynch me, DON'T FORGET:

In the case that 2 townie dies (40%), you must lynch mafia. And then you must pray for mafia and wolf to kill each other Night 4.

In the case that only 1 townie dies (13%), you must lynch mafia. Then, if scum kill each other, you win. If only 1 town dies, Day 5 must go No Lynch to hope scum kill each other. If 1 town and 1 scum dies, you're in LyLo. If two townies die, the last townie must vote No Lynch Day 5 and pray for scum to kill each other.

In the case that 1 town and the wolf dies (13%), you're in 3vs2 LyLo.

In the case that 1 town and 1 mafioso dies (26%), treat it like LyLo. If you fail, however, you can still pray for them to kill each other.

In the case that a wolf and a mafioso dies (6%), laugh at the remaining mafioso and lynch him.

LYNCHING WOLF IS AUTO-LOSE in the first two cases. You better not let Internet or Kanye convince you to lynch wolf if that's the case.

[darkdude]

Jeromus: If you're alive after this, you better put some effort into the game. Your Kanye theory sucks and you should discard it, though he might be scum for other reasons. Not me, but the other town, including the ones who have died, will probably be pissed (and rightfully so) if you cause us to lose because of your inactivity.

Rufflig: Your wolf reads are probably wrong if you keep going on the track that lead you suspect me to be wolf. START OVER and reread without preconceptions (as much as possible). Same with your mafia reads. Internet might not be best mafia candidate after Night 3.

Vollkan: After I flip, DO NOT mindlessly go for Internet. Right now he is biggest scum, but things might change with the night kills.

Empking: Your town read on Internet is unjustified. It might be a good balance of opinion against Rufflig and vollkan though. POST MOREEEE.

Kanye: you don't seem that likely to be making up bullshit to mislead town as Internet is, so I'll just say that your understanding of probability and its application SUCKS.

Occult: you can't possibly think Internet is that high-prob-town after my flip. REEVALUATE your tells.

Internet: HAHAHAHA you're not getting away!

[darkdude]

That was, by the way, my list from most likely town to most likely scum. Here it is again:

Town -> Jeromus Rufflig Vollkan Empking Kanye Occult Internet -> Scum

My flip will prove that wolf was bussing. DO NOT assume that he must have jumped on at last minute (although it is of course possible as well). I think Internet has enough experience to bus early, so just be aware of that. Empking is very unlikely though, and should probably be considered confirmed-non-wolf.

Somethings other things to remember:

Occult hammered Riceballs without waiting for claim. (implication: he was bussing so he wasn't afraid that it may be a power role)
Occult's Day 1 posting was okay. Today (Day 3) though, I had some bad feelings about his posts. Never bothered to look too much into it. You guys should do that when you have the time.

Empking's suspicion of Rufflig seems unjustified. I don't see why he would think that there's no more town power roles. What exactly is the use of scum role cop claiming a innocent? What exactly is the use of a scum pretending to be a power role with such info?

Rufflig and Jeromus should be considered confirmed. They could be scum, and we would be screwed. But the others are just so much more likely to be scum.

At this time, I would like to see Internet lynched tomorrow. Again, however, please do consider the new evidence that will come with the conclusion of Night 3.

[darkdude]

If there is someone willing to hammer me, say so. I will claim.

[kanyeknowsbest]

I thought you were of the opinion that dd is town empking? Why the change of heart?

Why don't you do the math on no lynch dd? If there is a higher chance of town win from a no lynch than a wolf lynch, I will happily go along with it seeing as we can hit a no lynch with absolute certainty. And if you're town, I'm sure you must believe its better than a mislynch even if you'll just die tomorrow.

[Empking]

Empking's suspicion of Rufflig seems unjustified. I don't see why he would think that there's no more town power roles.

Lokk at the set up. No power roles would be a balanced game let alone adding a Cop, a Doctor and a Nurse to that.

I thought you were of the opinion that dd is town empking?

Not as town as IS or No Lynch.

[Me=Weird]

votecount

Internet Stranger(2): vollkan, darkdude
darkdude(4):Internet Stranger, kanyeknowsbest, Occult, Empking
No Lynch(1): The Rufflig
Not Voting(1): Jeromus

With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Day 3 deadline is on May 14, in (expired on 2011-05-14 12:00:00)

[jeromus]

I'll hammer, claim, good sir.

[The Rufflig]

So, Empking shows his true colors. Ha! That townie feeling for DD didn't last long - as soon as I bowed out, he couldn't wait to jump in.

Hammering the werewolf is a bad idea - once he is gone the mafia will be able to turn their full attention to townies -- guess which sort? We need a shot at killing a mafia and if the town isn't willing to do it - let the werewolf run with it.

[The Rufflig]

Oh, as far as that 40% chance of scum hitting two townies? That is only from a random point of view. The werewolf needs a mafia kill just as badly as we do. If he gets it, that puts the mafia in a bad spot -- especially if they went off killing townies instead of eliminating the night threat to them. So, I suspect the mafia will go after the werewolf over confirmed townies -- after all, until I flip they can still try and discredit me and use the fact that I didn't die as evidence that I must be scum.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Are you saying you would rather mislynch than lynch wolf?

[darkdude]

I'm town citizen. No powers here.

I'll do the calculation for No Lynch, then. But why would you do that if you're set on lynching me anyways? If you already have a target and won't change your mind, the probability isn't random.

[Empking]

Unvote

Vote: Volkan

- No, DD is town.

[Occult]

Are you saying you would rather mislynch than lynch wolf?

No, he's claiming that a no lynch is best for town, not a mislynch, so let's not go twisting words...

A No lynch puts our town straight in the hands of anti-town elements, that's the biggest problem I have with this. If we do a No lynch we come back with 6 people tomorrow and we can only hope that one of those kills turns mafia or wolf biggest otherwise we hit Lylo. Unless someone comes back with a damn good argument for no lynch, I don't think I can support it.

I will say empking's vote hopping has raised concerns for me...

[The Rufflig]

True and if we lynch the wolf in lylo - we lose - we'd need to lynch mafia to stay in the game.

If we lynch the wolf today, we'll be in mylo tomorrow anyway - and would need to lynch mafia. Think through the combinations of nightkills possible - a no lynch in mylo would likely cost us one of our confirmed townies - the odds of both Jeromus and I being nk'd is fairly low.

We need a mafia killed. Today would be better than relying on our wolf's bad aim tonight or waiting until mylo/lylo, but we really need a mafia killed off.

[Internet Stranger]

No lynch is still lallowing the scum to dictate the game while us town get herded up like sheep. FUCK. THAT.

My arguement is still the same. The scummiest person gets lynched. Sure it might be awesome to lynch a mafia. Hell it would be awesome tpo just lynch all the scum. So then who's holding the crystal ball that knows with 100% certainty who all the scum are.

Until someone claims a role called nostrafuyckingdamus I'm voting darkdude for being the scummiest person here.

[Empking]

Until someone claims a role called nostrafuyckingdamus I'm voting darkdude for being the scummiest person here.

Who o you think his scumbuddy is?

[The Rufflig]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Internet Stranger

Fine, I'll take my "no lynch" back, but it looks like we might get one anyhow.

[Internet Stranger]

The only person of whom I'm convinced of being an evil scumbag is darkdude.

Anyone else are less probable. Maybe Occult and Vollkan? I have no way of being certain though , so I want to go with my best possibility. The scummiest of the three. So I'm going with darkdude.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Are you saying you would rather mislynch than lynch wolf?

No, he's claiming that a no lynch is best for town, not a mislynch, so let's not go twisting words...

I'm not twisting his words. It was worded pointedly, but the 40% he mentioned and is justifying as "not really being that bad" comes from a mislynch, not a no lynch.

[darkdude]

Chart updated with No Lynch probabilities (at the bottom).

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreads ... utput=html

The options today and their win rates are:

L_wolf = 0.13333
L_town = 0.14122
L_mafia = 0.28974
L_none = 0.18122

Therefore, optimal play (if subsequent lynches and kills are random) is:

No Lynch, unless

P_wolf L_wolf + P_town L_town + P_mafia L_mafia > L_none

Where P is the probability of your best suspect being wolf, town, or mafia, and L is the win rate for each type of lynch.

The accuracy of this is of course restricted to its assumptions of random lynches starting Day 4 and random NKs. I really don't think our lynches would be significantly better than random, though.

[darkdude]

Vollkan, if you were using a true probability system you would have numbers for P ready to be plugged in. Too bad, eh?

[kanyeknowsbest]

Unvote, Vote: vollkan

I think vollkan is scum. I also think I like no lynch better than a wolf lynch. I'd say this is a safe place to park my vote.

[darkdude]

My best estimate of Internet:

30% mafia, 65% town, 5% wolf

8.6922% + 9.1793% + 0.6666% = 18.5381%

Hm....slightly better than No Lynch, and only 1.4% better than random lynch. I'm embarrassed.

[darkdude]

Actually let me correct that.

I based that off of my prior 2/7 mafia chance for any player. Made a mistake and used 2/8 instead. Prior chance of Internet being mafia is not 25%, but 28.6%. My estimate for adding my scumread of Internet on top of that will then be around 35%.

But oh wait, it might not even be 2/7 !

Doesn't our situation (NK flips) bear some similarities to the Monty Hall problem? Nah...I don't feel like calculating that right now. Maybe later.

10.1409% + 9.1793% + 0.6666% = 19.9868%