Mini 1137: Long Overdue Mafia [Game Over!]

[Faraday]

Well that's a silly rhetorical question, isn't it? I think bub is town though, and I still think the neighbouriser thing is damning. I *suppose* there could be a 1-shot mafia roleblocker or something that fucked mike up, that might actually explaining him retaining his 1-shot abillity.

Eh, why is Bub scummier than Mikemike iyo? Or even cecily I guess, who's sort of dropped off everyone's suspicions (and still voting me, no?)

[havingfitz]

Eh, why is Bub scummier than Mikemike iyo? Or even cecily I guess, who's sort of dropped off everyone's suspicions (and still voting me, no?)

I'm not saying mikemike is less scummy than Bub and I actually think Cecily is scummier than both of them. My point is...if IMO I am to believe there was more than one scum on the D1 mislynch....and there are only two people still alive off that mislynch...then why would I look in a bigger pool of candidates? Especially when I am inclined to think one of the two players still alive is more likely to be town (you). I never really suspected PT and other than your push on me the other day I have not got a scum feel from you. That narrows it down to one person for me (Bub).

[Rhinox]

Votecount 4.1

Faraday (1) - Cecily
Bub Bidderskins (3) - Setael, mikemike778, havingfitz
mikemike778 (1) - Bub Bidderskins
Setael (0) -
Cecily (0) -
havingfitz (0) -

not voting (1): Faraday

Deadline is

Sunday, May 22nd at 4PM.

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Cecily is V/LA until Sunday.


Also apologies for the lack of VC's today. I knew there wasn't a lot of voting (until recently), but I didn't realize so many pages had passed.

[Faraday]

Eh, why is Bub scummier than Mikemike iyo? Or even cecily I guess, who's sort of dropped off everyone's suspicions (and still voting me, no?)

I'm not saying mikemike is less scummy than Bub and I actually think Cecily is scummier than both of them. My point is...if IMO I am to believe there was more than one scum on the D1 mislynch....and there are only two people still alive off that mislynch...then why would I look in a bigger pool of candidates? Especially when I am inclined to think one of the two players still alive is more likely to be town (you). I never really suspected PT and other than your push on me the other day I have not got a scum feel from you. That narrows it down to one person for me (Bub).

But...vote count analysis is susceptible to being very fucking wrong. With only 2 group scum (we know this for definite, pretty much) why can't there only be 1 scum on the day 1 mislynch? if anything I think the scum are more likely to be

off

the wagon to distance from each other. Traitor I've no idea about.

I mean I just think you should be voting your top scumread.

[Faraday]

I mean there are certain scenarios where you can say 'yep scum here' but it's hard to know how many.

[Setael]

I'm torn on Bub. I do think Jerbs gets town points for saying voided shouldn't be lynched and for his post replacing out. But Bub gets scum points for his voided vote, his play towards Pine, and his quickness to clear people for weak reasons. He later said that was a mistake, so meh.

Rereading Cecily's posts today, she's wishy washy and giving crap reasoning. She has a hard time believing Faraday's claim, and yet she thinks it's not completely unreasonable; she thought fitz was scum yesterday for attacking her, but now she's cleared him as town because Nacho was NK'd; mike's claim is suspicious, yet it's not.

I would like to know where you see fluff in my posts? I try to keep them concise and to the point and so far my posts have been shorter than most other people's... If you say you have opinions of me, state them. If you call me scum, tell me how.

Pretty sure I already mentioned this about Cecily, but this is a scum tell for me mostly since I've done it as scum before - insisting over and over people provide reasons for thinking she's scum.

Then I saw this:

Your reads on Pine were widely regarded as brilliant and everybody aside from chk was in on the bus, so how am I any different than anyone else?

This is Cecily calling the Pine wagon a "bus"... so uh...

unvote, vote: Cecily

Let's lynch her while she's V/LA studying for finals. She totally wouldn't mind, I'm sure.

[havingfitz]

But...vote count analysis is susceptible to being very fucking wrong. With only 2 group scum (we know this for definite, pretty much) why can't there only be 1 scum on the day 1 mislynch? if anything I think the scum are more likely to be

off

the wagon to distance from each other. Traitor I've no idea about.

I mean I just think you should be voting your top scumread.

What makes it pretty much definite that there are only two scum? We had you investigative role...we had a 1 shot vig. That's not very fair if there are two scum. And I have never played in a game with a traitor so I would not presume to know how to interpret a game to determine there was one. If there are only two scum (ie 1 left)...great! We aren't in MYLO. I think there are three (ie 2 remaining) and I think at least one other was on the D1 lynch.

Why do you think Bub is not scum? Based on one comment Jerbs made when he replaced out? That seems awfully weak.

If you are convinced Setael is town...and your investigation indicates I am town (for those who believe you at least and are not considering the traitor thing)...then that's two people you believe town who suspect Bub. And who along with you is avoiding the Bub wagon?

[Faraday]

Shrug, a 1-shot vig and a 1-shot gunsmith don't balance 3 scum. Check the recently completely mini normals, it's usually 3 full power roles vs 3 scum.

I don't think it is weak, that's the thing. And just because you're town doesn't mean you're right.

Hmm good point I suppose with cecily/mike avoiding the bub wagon. Thing is I think one of those 2 has to be scum.

Ugh. You trust that votecount analysis over your actual reads?

[havingfitz]

If I check recently finished mini normals I wonder what the percentages are of D1 mislynches with only one scum?

I guess I do trust my VCA in this circumstance over my actual read because I suspect Cecily more than I do Bub.

[havingfitz]

UNVOTE: for a moment.

[Setael]

I just finished a mini normal that had one actually.

Day one mislynch, and 2 of the 3 scums were off the wagon. (Scum were neko, darth yoshi and Zdenek - only neko was on the Day one mislynch)

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

[mikemike778]

Well that's a silly rhetorical question, isn't it? I think bub is town though, and I still think the neighbouriser thing is damning. I *suppose* there could be a 1-shot mafia roleblocker or something that fucked mike up, that might actually explaining him retaining his 1-shot abillity.

Eh, why is Bub scummier than Mikemike iyo? Or even cecily I guess, who's sort of dropped off everyone's suspicions (and still voting me, no?)

How is it damning? assuming you think I am lying what is your version of events, if I was scum - the chain of events just don't make sense at all. OK lets walk this back to the beginning.

Night 1 - your comment above suggests you think my failed attempt was a lie ? Assuming you accept that I am a neighbourizer what is your version of events then ? Am I a multiple shot neighbourizer or did I just not take my shot ? If I was a scum, why would I not take my shot ?

Day 2 - OK so if I am scum apparently and Pine has been outed by my the tracker. Given Pine was clearly going down why wouldn't I just claim and get town points for taking out a scum, there was no real benefit to try and protect him. And if I was going to protect him why did I vote him ?? This just doesn't make any sense from a scum perspective at all.

Answer is of course - Rhino confirmed my failure wouldn't show up by a tracker so I knew no more than anyone else. Pine seemed scum and as a town player I want to lynch scum so I voted him.

Night 2 - OK so again I'm scum and after outing but then trying to cover up for Pine what next ? Surely the answer would be not to use the neighbourizer power to avoid possible complications with Pine's claim. Why would I want to use the power here doesn't make sense from a scum perspective.

Answer of course being that as a town player, I saw the power as a way of getting some kind of read on someone who at that point I had very little on. And of course given Pine's claim and the off chance someone else claimed tracker (Rhino confirmed that a successfull neighbourizer would be picked up by a tracker) then I'd be in a better position to judge the claiim.

[Setael]

Interestingly enough, this was also the case in a recent completed Mini Normal where Cecily was scum.

nobody special, hiraki, cecily were scum and only nobody special was on the Day 1 mislynch

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

[havingfitz]

OK...I just did a quick check on the last ten games mini normals (in Completed Games) and came up with 40 percent of games having only 1 scum on the mislynch. That's more than I expected. Back to my favorite suspect.

VOTE: Cecily

[Faraday]

Mike which of bub and cecily do you think is scum? one both? (I read your post, just...not sure I want to respond to it now)

[Bub Bidderskins]

But then why didn't you counter-claim when Voided claimed? This is what you had to say on the subject:

Not buying the Voided wagon yet. Maybe WIFOM but I don't see a scum with a guilty claiming Neighbour/izer. If he was scum, he would probs assume the claim was legit - if he was going to fake claim why fake claim a relatively minor role as opposed to a Doc or Normal Cop to try and draw them out. After all, without Rat's revelation Voided would have been lynched fairly quickly.

Why didn't you? The answer is simple: because you knew that Voided was town. You knew that if you counter-claimed, and voided was lynched, then the suspision would fall onto you. A townie would instantly jump onto somebody who claimed their exact same role, but you backed off and distanced yourself from that very wagon.

CONFIRM VOTE: MIKEMIKE

[Bub Bidderskins]

As far as him not getting a tracker result when you targetted him, I doubt that's true. It is my understanding that if an information role is tracked and targets the player who dies that night, then the tracker would recieve the result.

[havingfitz]

As far as him not getting a tracker result when you targetted him, I doubt that's true.

Bub...what are you talking about here? What result are you talking about from when who targetted who? You aren't referring to Pine's fake tracker claim and the result he said he got on mikemike are you?

And how does mikemike's actions around the time Void claimed make him scummy? You say he should have immediately counter claimed. How many times have any of us ever seen a 1-shot Neighborizor in a game? If I had got that role PM I would have been like...whuh? And to have that role and see another player claim the exact same role had to make a player really wonder what was going on. I would have taken the claim as truthful (whether I was a scum or town neighborizor). How would mikemike KNOW that Void was town? Based on Void's claim or based on the fact you think he [mikemike] is scum? When you were neighborized by mikemike did any of the QT conversation revolve around the fact that there we two 1-shot neighborizors in the game?

...you knew that Voided was town. You knew that if you counter-claimed, and voided was lynched, then the suspision would fall onto you. A townie would instantly jump onto somebody who claimed their exact same role, but you backed off and distanced yourself from that very wagon.

I'm not sure mikemike ever backed off Void...I don't recall him ever being ON Void to begin with. What would mikemike coming out and claiming 1-shot neighborizor in response to Void's claim have accomplished? It would have either sealed Void's fate (which wasn't necessary) or just confused people's views towards mikemike (whether he was town or scum). If I was scum and had a 1-shot neighborizor role I'm not sure if I would have ever even botherd to use it after Void's claim. I think I would have avoided using it and if the need to claim came up later in the game...either claim VT or some other PR fakeclaim that did not mirror Voids's.

tl:dr; I'm not sure mikemike's actions are as unreasonable as you have portrayed them to be Bub.

Who are your #2 and #3 suspects Bub?

[mikemike778]

But then why didn't you counter-claim when Voided claimed? This is what you had to say on the subject:

Not buying the Voided wagon yet. Maybe WIFOM but I don't see a scum with a guilty claiming Neighbour/izer. If he was scum, he would probs assume the claim was legit - if he was going to fake claim why fake claim a relatively minor role as opposed to a Doc or Normal Cop to try and draw them out. After all, without Rat's revelation Voided would have been lynched fairly quickly.

Why didn't you? The answer is simple: because you knew that Voided was town. You knew that if you counter-claimed, and voided was lynched, then the suspision would fall onto you. A townie would instantly jump onto somebody who claimed their exact same role, but you backed off and distanced yourself from that very wagon.

CONFIRM VOTE: MIKEMIKE

Lol ...

You are getting desperate now aren't you ? Why would I counter-claim it wouldn't confirm anything one way or another all it would do would be to provide free information to the bad guys (if they knew I was neighbourizer then they knew I wasn't anything more important).

If I counter-claimed it would be because I thought scum had lied about the role - I didn't think that, given the co-incidence, I was pretty confident Voided hadn't just made the role up, believed his claim and therefore thought he was probably town. I wanted to defend his claim (when people were trying to lynch him just for mixing up neighbour/izer) and deter a wagon on him without actually claiming myself and giving the info away.

Again to claim that my response is scum motivated is just illogical.

[mikemike778]

As far as him not getting a tracker result when you targetted him, I doubt that's true. It is my understanding that if an information role is tracked and targets the player who dies that night, then the tracker would recieve the result.

Then you are wrong.

[Faraday]

Mike who's scum and why aren't you voting them?

[Faraday]

Wow never mind I'm an idiot.

[Faraday]

Vote cecily

All town wagon. Fuck it.

Better chance of being scum than bub.

[Faraday]

Mikemike is online.

I think it's a him/cecily scumteam if I had to guess.

[mikemike778]

Mike which of bub and cecily do you think is scum? one both? (I read your post, just...not sure I want to respond to it now)

I actually have a hunch that Bub may be traitor in which case him and Ces are the scum team as Fitz would be pretty much cleared and I don't think Sat is in the main scum team.

If Bub is scum but not traitor and you are correct in your thinking that there is a traitor then it could be anyone as Fitz wont be cleared of this role and even Sat could be (if he was traitor and didnt know the scum team his case on Pine wouldn't be quite so much a confirmed town tell). But then it wouldn't matter as we would have won anyway - assuming your set-up analysis is correct.

So its lynch Bub and then if there is a day 5, lynch Ces and game won