New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[silverbullet999]

lol alright, well I sort of like your VCA in that case.

-Ninja

If my VCA implicated Pine (which it did), and you're curious about my VCA this game (which implicates you)...

If your VCA didn't implicate Pine, then it didn't implicate sub nor me and my confidence in subscum would drop a bit.
Your VCA implicating Pine, implicates me and Sub and I'm happy with that

I guess technically your possibly 50% correct either way in my mind, since I know I'm town and believe more and more that Sub is scum, but yeah.

[mastin2]

...Yeah, that looks like a scumclaim to me.

[silverbullet999]

mastin you lynch me first, if i flip town you lynch sub, if I flip scum... well you'll lynch sub anyway I hope but yeah, if I flip town you'll lynch sub anyway. Deal?

[mastin2]

My vote's currently on Sub, Silver. Who I believe to be scum more than I believe you to be. I still believe both of you are (currently, at least), but SubSith more than you. If someone's chances of being scum start at 25%, you'd be at 50 or so, whereas SubSith is a good 60.

("...That doesn't look too bad." Keep in mind, I aint goin' above 90 without a role result. I am not going to exceed 80 without having done a thorough read, which I'm in the process of doing. Considering 25 is the baseline--instead of some people who start it at 50--that means that SubSith is a full 35% more likely to be scum than the default. Which--for those who like to start at 50--is actually an 85% chance of being scum.
THAT is pretty high up, for so early in the game. Hence, keeping my vote.)

[mastin2]

Users browsing this forum: mastin2, MrZepher
^Another wall incoming, I presume?

[silverbullet999]

Rgr, Currently as long as sub ends up lynched today or tomorrow i'll be happy.

(Can possibly change)

[MrZepher]

I think Mastin hates me ._.

In other news:
My biggest scum reads happen to be Sub and Amor

Which now that I think about my vote is still on nhammen...
I'll double check to see if I want to keep it there...

In any case, I'd hate to use the argument "to town to be town" but Sub seems to fall into that argument. Idk. Something about the way he scumhunts doesn't sit well with me.
Silver come off as town, but ridiculous town. There's room for me to be proven wrong though.

I'll post back within the next couple of hours with some things for people to answer.

PRE-EDIT:

I only do walls when I post cases. and I hate it so I avoid it whenever possible.
That won't be the case here. I'm really awkward with placing votes on D1 sorry :\

[MrZepher]

EBWOP:

Not being the case here as in I'm not going to post a wall when I DO have a case...

[mastin2]

So, based off of my reads so far...
silverbullet999 (2) - Maxous,

SubzeroSith

<--Good wagon.
Amor (2) - nhammen,

Surye

<--Fairly good wagon, but not the best.
Pine (3) – Wraith, jmurph3, DeityKabuto <--This wagon needs to die, believe it or not.
Thor665 (1) – Knight of Cydonia <--Lesser alternative to Amor.
SubzeroSith (2) –

Surye

, silverbullet999, mastin2 <--Winwagon.
Toon Fighter (4) –

SubzeroSith

, Pine, MrZepher, Thor665,

Amor

<--Yes. This wagon DOES need to die, believe it or not. It's not the best wagon.

More or less. (Though, again. Initial reads and analysis might not hold accurate when I look at things in more detail.)

[mastin2]

For the record, Zepher's chances of being the fourth scum (if my initial reads are correct) just increased.

[MrZepher]

So, based off of my reads so far...
silverbullet999 (2) - Maxous,

SubzeroSith

<--Good wagon.
Amor (2) - nhammen,

Surye

<--Fairly good wagon, but not the best.
Pine (3) – Wraith, jmurph3, DeityKabuto <--This wagon needs to die, believe it or not.
Thor665 (1) – Knight of Cydonia <--Lesser alternative to Amor.
SubzeroSith (2) –

Surye

, silverbullet999, mastin2 <--Winwagon.
Toon Fighter (4) –

SubzeroSith

, Pine, MrZepher, Thor665,

Amor

<--Yes. This wagon DOES need to die, believe it or not. It's not the best wagon.

More or less. (Though, again. Initial reads and analysis might not hold accurate when I look at things in more detail.)

I could have SWORE my vote was on nhammen. Idk why.
I checked The Vote Count AND my ISO when I thought you were lying.

Idk what's wrong with me @-@ sorry. But at least that explains why i wasn't sure why I thought I had my vote on nhammen....

Unvote

Also, why am I scum exactly?

[DeityKabuto]

@Mastin2, you think that Pine never explaining his random vote as how SubzeroSith did isn't scummy anymore?

[jmurph3]

Stupid question time: what does VCA stand for?

Also, can someone explain to me the hate aimed at Subzero at the moment? I've read his ISO and I'm really not getting it.

[Pine]

@Mastin2, you think that Pine never explaining his random vote as how SubzeroSith did isn't scummy anymore?

Wait, what didn't I explain?

And mastin, isn't it clear by now that I vote for who I want, when I want, often for reasons not accounted for in your VCA theory? Your VCAs have an absolutely TERRIBLE track record with me, and for that reason I am loathe to give them any real credence in predicting others.

[Amor]

Wow, Mastin just showered some posts on us. Sorry, but there's no way I'm clicking every link in that wall to see what you're talking about. I'm not sure I really understand the VCA process you're using and since most of the people it implicates I think (or in my case know) are town I don't trust it, but it does seem like a solid attempt at scumhunting.

Users browsing this forum: mastin2, MrZepher
^Another wall incoming, I presume?

Please don't do this. I leave the board open in a tab while I go do something else a lot of times, it doesn't really mean anything.

Zepher, can you explain your suspicions a bit more? I'm really not seeing the SZS case and I'd like someone to lay it out for me.

[Toon Fighter]

Wow, mastin, you sure made a lot of walls. will read them and comment when I have time. now I'm busy

[Thor665]

Unvote: Toon Fighter
Vote: Amor

I'm actually sheeping Mastin, but combining it with my reads. He's totally wrong about Subzero, and I am suspicious he's wrong about silver, as the scummiest thing I've seen silver do was this and that came after his analysis so...meh.

[mastin2]

Also, why am I scum exactly?

You're not. You just have above-average chances of being scum by the

V

ote

C

ount

A

nalysis. (This is answering jmurph as well about what VCA stands for.)

Pine: you're obviously ignoring my posts, where I mention my VCA has actually quite effectively pinned you as scum, and me IGNORING the VCA caused my read to be wrong. (Also, I have the sneaking suspicion my VCA is far less accurate in two-scumteam games. >_<)

Wow, mastin, you sure made a lot of walls.

^Not reading the thread, but probably not scum. I only have one wall. Rest of my posts have been as short as I can possibly make 'em.

Interesting, how Thor goes after Amor. Interesting because my VCA suggests that if Amor isn't scum, Thor would be. Makes my town-view on Thor slightly larger, 'cause he'd know by now that if I thought he was scum, he'd get lynched pretty quickly.

[Thor665]

@Mastin - nah, not until you show an actual ability to shift the votes. But, me having a scum read on him, and you having a scum read on him that's larger the more likely I am town makes him look pretty tasty in my opinion. Plus, as noted, kinda meh on your other reads.

[MrZepher]

Also, why am I scum exactly?

You're not. You just have above-average chances of being scum by the

V

ote

C

ount

A

nalysis. (This is answering jmurph as well about what VCA stands for.)

As much as I'd like to have faith in that, I can't. I could state why, but I would have to cite information from an ongoing game so I can't, sorry.

Zepher, can you explain your suspicions a bit more? I'm really not seeing the SZS case and I'd like someone to lay it out for me.

I can try to the best of my ability. Also, I meant to get something out earlier but I fell asleep, sorry :\

With Sub, the way he approaches his scum-hunting is very nit-picky, and he is very eager to discredit arguments made against him.
At least that's why he's suspect with me. I'm still wary about the other cases on him, but the way he's reacted to them thus far hasn't sat well with me.
(take the interaction with Sub vs Silver for example, and then with Mastin too.)

With Amor, it's mostly gut (Sub has some gut in it as well) BUT I don't like the way you take Thor's "coaching" and Maxous' 122 and blatantly misrep them.
Also the stated reason for you unvote on KoC wasn't good.

No one seems to agree with me about Knight so...

Unvote
Vote: Toon Fighter

reads as: This wagon isn't going to kick off. Let's hop onto one that'll probably go through.
Of course this assuming you're scum, which I'm not sure what the likelyhood of that is yet.
Probably somewhat likely at this time and place.

Just as a note, I'm not voting yet because I don't think they need votes on them yet, or at least not from me if that makes sense.

[SubzeroSith]

I think my VCA nailed it, is dead-on what the scum are this game. And if not, is pretty darn close.

I'm honestly not sure if I'm supposed to be laughing or not. Do you really think you've actually caught multiple scum on day 1 just because of VCA with

zero

flips? The way you catch people with VCA is you look at who the CONFIRMED town are (we currently have zero), who the CONFIRMED scum are, and then look at whose votes made the most sense, whose were the weakest and most bus-like, etc. You cannot just say that you've caught anyone from who voted who on a random day 1 wagon that wasn't even built on anything particularly substantial, as in all the games I've played, probably only 2 or 3 of the day 1 lynches were truly based on something substantial.

Sure, there are things one could possibly note, such as Silver chainsaw defensing Toon by attacking me, which is plausible considering his wishy washy stance on Toon himself, and also makes sense considering my scum read on both players independently. This, however, means NOTHING until we have a flip of one or the other, which is why I didn't even bring it up before.

Silver, seriously think about this. You re-voted me because mastin

jokingly

said I'm a town read. This was literally you

entire

justification for voting me.

he is very eager to discredit arguments made against him.

Have you seen the arguments against me? I'd have to put effort in to NOT discrediting them.

the way he approaches his scum-hunting is very nit-picky

This is how ICE scum hunts for day 1. I find things that somehow don't match up or don't make sense, I.E. something that isn't a random vote, and push it as if it were a scum slip. It seems nit-picky to many, because well, it often is. This generates discussion, gets other people voting for reasons more serious than past histories, anime avatars, names, etc. and gets the ball rolling. Once said ball is said rolling, scum such as Silver come out and make terrible votes and push them without reason, thus outing themselves as scum. I personally think it's a great scum hunting tactic.

It essentially forces players in to action, and scum want to act as little as possible during day 1.

[mastin2]

SubSith, I stopped reading your post when I realized you were leaving out the second half of the quote, which changed the entire meaning. (Maybe not an intentional misrep, but it's at the very least a misinterpretation, and when I realized that the assumption behind the post was wrong, I decided to ignore that entire rant.)

Yes. I think my VCA nailed all the scum.

No. I don't know all the scum without flips. Because my INTERPRETATION of the VCA isn't perfect.

I made that quite clear. (I did, didn't I? I certainly thought I mentioned that at some point.)

[mastin2]

Right. I did.

My conclusions, however, FROM the VCA, I am not as sure on.

Context is your friend!

[SubzeroSith]

And to answer silver's question:

So.. I'm that paranoid from one vote in a large game?

Yes, that's exactly what happened. You completely stopped your scum hunting for several pages simply because someone asked you a question, and you asked a fairly inane question in response and expected said question to be answered before you could do any more scum hunting.

You haven't even done scum hunting since, you've just voted based on what mastin says.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: ANOTHER ramble about my VCA

Baseline for how I do VCA. This was made quite some time ago, so it's evolved somewhat since then (I made that before I had put it into use. Now that I'm actively employing it, it has gotten to be far more refined), but the essential formula is there.

It works. Really, it does. I already explained what my mistakes in using this have been. That I ignored the VCA--which had things RIGHT--and went with my reads OVER the VCA.

So, yeah. I'm going to be trusting that VCA a lot. Not so much now, for the reasons I've mentioned--I'm making educated guesses right now, essentially, as to who the scum are in the VCs. Without flips, there's only so much I can learn. If so much as a single assumption I make is off, my interpretation of the VCA changes entirely. I've learned as much as I can right now without making too many assumptions.

VCA is my most lethal weapon, what has most reliably caught scum for me. I have the process of CREATING the VCA down. That's why I say it's nailed the scum. I think it shows clear patterns, patterns which help condemn some individuals far more than others. However, I am still working on my PROCESSING of the VCA. My interpretation of the VCA has been far from perfect in past games. Incorrect assumptions change everything about the VCA. Assuming someone's town/scum when they aren't has historically been my largest mistake, for instance.

If that made sense. Don't make me ramble about VCA for a third time!