Newbie 1086 (GAME OVER)

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we believe that Space Pope is scum, we believe that the mafia NK'D the night Jason died. Just pointing that out.

I agree. And I find that a very hard thing to believe given the existence of a Role-blocker. Scum would be using a double gambit on the risk that they were in a Zero Town PR game as opposed to a Two Town PR game.

That's a huge risk to take.

[Space Pope]

Now that that is over, here is what I've been thinking since MoI claimed cop:

There are no confirmed town.

MoI-scum: Seeing a cop claim and knowing that there is only 1 PR (since it would be goon/goon), tried to kill me. This was heavily pushing on my mind as it makes little since for a RB not to think the doc would protect the cop claim. A RB should have RB'd me and then killed anyone who gave off doc vibes. Now, if it is goon/goon, they thought that there was only 1 PR and it was the outted cop so it was safe to kill me. Now when that happened, MoI was in the perfect position to counter me as the cop since he would have known I was lying (thinking that he would be believed over me, getting me mislynched [which is backed up by the fact that he threatened to vote me until, I believe, others voiced support in believing I was fakeclaiming, but I need to go back and read that again to be sure] or get me to back down like I did).

Projectmatt-scum: Last to claim, claimed doc. If there are 2 goons, then matt-scum would know there is no doc, and in fact, no NK'd just for the doc claim later.

I just wanted to point that out. With that in mind, I'd suggest everyone go reread or read some ISOs, ignoring the claims.

However, before I go back and read, I must say that I'd rank TOGTFO as most likely scum, followed by MoI, followed by Matt. MoI over Matt because Matt-scum would of had to believe I was the cop, and not killing someone that found him scummy and was likely to investigate him would be very bad scum play. MoI-scum scenerio is less risky.

[TOGTFO]

Think of it from SpacePopes perspective. You had claimed cop as last scum. Your partner just got lynched which essentially means that you know doc will be on you if there is one. What is the best course of action? You no-kill. There is no risk because doctor will be on you and if there isn't a doctor, then you go into a 4 way lylo which isn't so bad either.

I can't understand why mafia would risk killing spacepope when they would know that a doctor is in play unless they thought they could get lucky with a wifom from doctor.

@SpacePope- One scum left. Please re-read cause I am the only other person you can possibly lynch.

[TOGTFO]

This would have been so much easier if MOI had just investigated the person who claimed cop. Obviously you had doubts of him being scum, why not make sure?

[Zachrulez]

1st vote count of day 4:

Space Pope - 1 (TOGTFO)

Not Voting: (projectmatt, Space Pope, MagnaofIllusion)

With 4 alive it's 3 to lynch

Day 4 shall end no later than Wednesday, June 1st at 2pm CST

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I will be V/LA from today at 4pm EST until Monday for my regular family duties.

At this stage I’m going to re-read ISOs of TOGTFO and SpacePope. Unless I see something that just jumps out at me I’ll likely place my vote Monday for TOGTFO.

--

This would have been so much easier if MOI had just investigated the person who claimed cop. Obviously you had doubts of him being scum, why not make sure?

Because his counter-claim on Jason may have been suspect but didn’t make a lot of sense given how Jason immediately self-hammered. Scum only self-hammer to quick end discussions and protect partners from having to comment. I also doubt SpacePope would have been so quick to counter if he was Jason’s partner.

It is one of the reasons I went after those I called low profile with my investigation. Because that pool was much more likely to yield scum, IMO.

@TOGTFO

– I’d like you to explain why you immediately voted SpacePope without the completion of the mass-claim. Furthermore I’d like you to explain why your reaction to SpacePope’s “I’ve got more to say post” was “It better not be that you are the Doc”

[TOGTFO]

Jason probably quick hammered to prevent another cop claim from you, assuming there was one.

I knew that since Pope claimed VT, Matt had to be doc. So I voted scum.

However, SpacePope said he had something else to say which made me think he might actually claim doctor after Matt claimed doing what he did with the cop. That would have made me look bad to have voted him if Matt claimed VT.

[Space Pope]

Confirming my last post, rereading does show that MoI did want to vote for me until everyone that was active called me town.

TOGTFO 365- This is interesting because lately TOGTFO has been saying the only possible scum is us two, even though here he states that MoI is town because he is the cop and I am town because gambit would be bad scum tactic.

Why now do you believe the bad scum tactic is most likely scum over unconfirmed cop?
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TOGTFO in ISO:

Comes in and is pointing out the banter between Experienced vs Noobs (might be a where he is trying to get us to talk to each other more to avoid being looked at too closely as a scum PR), enhanced by the fact he called himself the most newbie (which also raises up to excuse his scummy behavior as noobtells).

First mentions Jason (besides the above) by agreeing with him against Matt

Defends Mogri, but not in a “I feel he is town, but in that he is playing well-esq” Then coaches him into how to appear townie by scumhunting instead of trying to act overly town/defending

Then he distances from the Mogri wagon again by saying he is focused more on xxx, and that he won't hammer. But mentions that it is too late to get another wagon to lynch.

Calls his actions anti-town instead of scummy for not claiming.

D2, agrees that Jason is a good start for discussion, but then defends his actions as being a bad scum tactic, then puts Jason in middle of town/scum list.

D3, instantly believed cop claim and that there was a doc. Realizes later that scum must be between him and Jerako. Puts himself as self-sacrificing by agreeing to be on the chopping block, but then puts pressure on Jerako lurker to post
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Overall, I'd say TOGTFO has been trying to appear townie, through mislynch distancing and lurking (to avoid posting scumtells); and he has seemed to subtly tried to defend Jason like he wanted to be able to bus him if he has to.

My vote is going to TOGTFO, but not voting yet until more discussion since this is MYLO.

[TOGTFO]

@SpacePope- MOI and ProjectMatt are confirmed town. There is no way one of them would lie for the other as town since there is only one scum left. Your only option is to put pressure on me.

Likewise for me, I

have

to assume you are scum because MOI is cleared cop. And for the record it was a bad scum tactic for you to play against your buddy.

[Space Pope]

How are they confirmed? Because the only way they'd be confirmed is if a RB flipped, which it didn't. There could be 2 goons, in which case, only 1 of them is an actual PR.

However, I find you independently scummy.

[projectmatt]

Sorry for the sudden drop in activity, there's a huge play coming up and it'll all be over with Sunday evening. Will post in depth thoughts then.

What a very difficult situation.

First question, the mafia would be aware of the setup they are in, yes?

[TOGTFO]

I have done some thought and I believe on Matt is cleared at this point.

Set up 1- SpacePope is scum because both PRs are clear.
Set up 3- Matt is scum cause there is no doctor
Set up 4- MOI is scum cause there is no cop.

Matt can not be scum because MOI claimed to have been roleblocked which means that if he is legit town then it is set up 1. If he is not town then it is set up 4. Thus Matt is clear.

I realized, however, that MOI could have known there wasn't a cop since there was a doc save on spacepope.

unvote

I was wrong and in that aspect and I am sorry. MOI has played smart and scum-MOI would know that there is not a cop after doc saving SpacePope. This means that he would claim cop cause town wouldn't know the difference. This makes it a difficult choice for me and seeing as I still agree with my original theory of scum not counter claim bussing their parter, I am leaning more towards MOI being mafia.

[Zachrulez]

bump

[projectmatt]

More active now. Trying to figure this out. I'll ask the question again: At the start of the game, the mafia is aware of the setup that they are in, is this statement correct?

[TOGTFO]

No, mafia would be able to eliminate half of the set ups but would not know the exact one.

[projectmatt]

Meaning that, the mafia, at the point of Space Pope claiming, were not aware if there was a doctor in the setup? Meaning that they could have just tried to kill him and tested their luck. If the mafia KNEW for sure, then I would suspect Space Pope had NK'd that night.

[TOGTFO]

Mafia did not know.

If SpacePope is mafia, then he is a roleblocker and would know that there is both a cop and doctor. That means he could have NKed easy since he knew that the doctor was on him. However, that also means that he would be taking a HUGE risk in that the real cop would not investigate him for having claimed cop. It is easy enough to retract a claim but you cant get out of a result.

MOI-scum, however, would have to assume that only a cop was in the game as Jason-scum claimed it and SpacePope cced. That would mean an easy kill of the only PR in the game. If he was wrong and SpacePope gets protected (which happened) then he knows there is no cop and super-duper-easy-claim-cop-time-for-the-win.

But to play devil's advocate, me being scum would mean that I too have to be a roleblocker. Does it not strike anyone as odd that I would try to kill SpacePope when I know full well that there is a doctor among us? Instead, I would block him and try to shoot for the doctor. Just getting that out there...

[Space Pope]

TOGTFO- So who do you feel is scum right now?


Also, if I was the RB, the day I CC'd I would know if there was a doc to protect me. I would either think that there were no PRs or 2 PRs (50/50 chance).

At Matt's post- 2xgoon would think that there were no doc when I claimed. If there was a RBer, then they thought there was a doc. If I am scum, I have to be the RBer and therefore would not have known if there was any PRs at the time I CC'd, therefore, wouldn't have known if I had to pretend to be saved by the doc by no NK or "hunt for the doc" and submit a NK.



Basically, we are at a stage where we are trying to guess the game intelligence of the remaining scum. Either they made a mistake and targetted a cop when their role would indicate there being a hidden doc (TOGTFO), saw an opening and took it to safely claim cop (MoI), or tried a risky scum gambit that would make the town think it was too risky to be scum (myself).


This makes it more difficult to access, because at any time a good player could play badly or a bad player could play well. It's very, very difficult to figure out. That is why I suggestted rereading each of us to see who played scummily. Keep in mind their later claims and if they fit the scum role (TOGTFO or myself had to be a mafia RBer, MoI a goon). Ignore the claims. Whether someone played scummy ranks higher than trying to say that xxx is town because scum wouldn't make that mistake or whatever.






Side point- Matt, do you use NK'd to me no killed or night killed?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@SpacePope- MOI and ProjectMatt are confirmed town. There is no way one of them would lie for the other as town since there is only one scum left. Your only option is to put pressure on me.

He’s later backed off this because SpacePope has laid out why from T’s perspective we are both not confirmed. But the underlying psychological tell is valid – he knows we are both confirmed because he knows the set-up.

But to play devil's advocate, me being scum would mean that I too have to be a roleblocker. Does it not strike anyone as odd that I would try to kill SpacePope when I know full well that there is a doctor among us? Instead, I would block him and try to shoot for the doctor. Just getting that out there...

Yes, I thought it was odd too when the Day broke. Which is why I suspected SpacePope of No-Killing as a Goon. But that went out the door when I got RBed N3. Of course you could have tried to kill the Cop and block the Doc if you had a good Doc read. All in all this is a bit of WIFOM.

--

First question, the mafia would be aware of the setup they are in, yes?

Dons IC Hat –

The explanations given here are correct. Scum are not told which of the set-ups they are playing in during Newbie games.

[TOGTFO]

@SpacePope- MOI and ProjectMatt are confirmed town. There is no way one of them would lie for the other as town since there is only one scum left. Your only option is to put pressure on me.

He’s later backed off this because SpacePope has laid out why from T’s perspective we are both not confirmed. But the underlying psychological tell is valid – he knows we are both confirmed because he knows the set-up.

I assumed the set-up cause we had three separate people claim cop. There are only two scum so what are the odds that cop is not legit?

But after thinking about it, I just can't see SpacePope taking that big a risk.

FoS: MOI

[Space Pope]

Matt- Have you reread or read ISOs yet? (Last question I asked you I meant to say mean and not me)

MoI- How about you? You seem to be relying on my CC'd as the reason why I'm not scum and then working from there to figure TOGTFO as scum. Have you read ISOs?

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI- How about you? You seem to be relying on my CC'd as the reason why I'm not scum and then working from there to figure TOGTFO as scum. Have you read ISOs?

That’s not an accurate assessment of how I have my read on you as Town. I’ll give you the overview of how I got to my read.

Night 2 / Day 3 I was had you as a possible Partner for Jason. You CCed him while not actually being the Cop. The lack of Nightkill was reasonably possible for Scum hoping to fake a Doc protect.

That changed N3 when I got role-blocked. At that point I knew that we had a Doc in the set-up and the chances that you were double-gambitting dropped dramatically. Not to absolute zero but close enough.

Now fast forward to today’s Mass claim. Project’s uncounterclaimed Doc claim to me 100% confirms him. It also confirms you via the protect.

--

I have reviewed everyone's ISO and based on the above don’t see any reason to hold off voting any longer. I can’t see my vote changing unless something drastic (like Project claiming he faked the Doc claim) happens.

TOGTFO looked like the most likely Jason parter before based on VC analysis and day-play. That hasn't changed at all based on today's posting.

VOTE: TOGTFO

[projectmatt]

Ugh..

I have indeed re-read and gathered my thoughts. I think that it may be TOGTFO for the remaining scum.

I'm going to analyze his play, starting with d2, (I admittedly still need to look over d1.)

I am going to get my reads up on everyone soon. For the moment, I am going to agree with MOI and Mogri that Jason is a good start for today. Although I can not fathom scum being so adamant about a lynch when it will draw attention to themselves. Scum may try to lead a lynch but they would not do so at the expense of drawing a lynch to themselves, especially in a smaller scum game as this.

Okay..nothing that bad, but subtly defending Jason.

*Prod dodge*

I am not being very helpful I know. Sorry. I am going to get my reads out I just need time to be able to focus on this.

Brief overview of reads, more townie people are up top. I will explain my reads soon as I can.

Town:
TOGTFO
Jerako
MOI
Stefunny
Jason
ProjectMatt
SpacePope
Scum:

Anyone else who finds it odd that Stefunny died as soon as another kill could be made? This list of "town" reads could have been interesting, but all in all, it's just a list of names without reasoning. He never really does explain why he thinks what he does, either.

(The above is his last post of day 2, by the way.)

Doctor must have saved SpacePope which means that there is a roleblocker.

SpacePope should out all reports.

Matt is not scum with Jason imo. MOI could be.

MOI was second on his town list his last post. Where did that go?

Vote: Jerako

MOI=cop
Stefunny= innocent
SpacePope cced Jason and consequently got him lynched. Not a tactic scum would use.
Matt would be a hard buss but possibly aligned with jason had they planned it that way.
Jerakos vote on jason seemed the most reluctant out of everyone and therefor the most scummy.

If there is a doctor between matt and jerako, then this game is looking to be a town victory.

Quickly jumps on Jerako, which is okay..

I could honestly care less who we lynch today. It seems evident that the best lynch today is between me and Jerako and since we are not in lylo yet, I dont mind being on the chopping block.

I would, however, love to hear from Jerako soon.

"I don't mind being on the chopping block", and then proceeds to pressure Jerako into posting, as SpacePope has already pointed out.

Not.... really the answer I was expecting.

This is after Jerako's replacement offers himself up for a lynch. TOGTFO had previously outlined everyone as "town", so if Jerako had been lynched he would be put in a sticky situation. This post honestly just felt like he was trying to distance himself away from his scum read and note that:

I feel like anything is possible.

.

Now, d4.

I would rather nl today and bring it to a three way lylo. Either way, there will be two unclears but at least this way town has a chance for mafia to miss and hit another townie as opposed to the doctor which would mean a win for town.

Nevermind. I just wanted you to see my thought process but now I realize that wouldn't work because mafia can claim doctor. In that case, lets mass claim today.

I have no idea what this post was about. There is no "edit" function so clearly TOGTFO was just outing his thoughts as they came. But, what was the point? He made a giant wall then he just said "I retract".

Claim VT

Vote: SpacePope

What this means, is that mafia took a gambit and hoped there was not a cop. If there wasn't, then SpacePope could have been cleared as cop for an easy win.

Ugh..

Let's look back at his post from d3, okay?

SpacePope cced Jason and consequently got him lynched. Not a tactic scum would use.

And yet, before the massclaim had even ended, he was quick to jump on Space Pope.

Think of it from SpacePopes perspective. You had claimed cop as last scum. Your partner just got lynched which essentially means that you know doc will be on you if there is one. What is the best course of action? You no-kill. There is no risk because doctor will be on you and if there isn't a doctor, then you go into a 4 way lylo which isn't so bad either.

I can't understand why mafia would risk killing spacepope when they would know that a doctor is in play unless they thought they could get lucky with a wifom from doctor.

@SpacePope- One scum left. Please re-read cause I am the only other person you can possibly lynch.

Again, he's SO SURE that SpacePope is scum, but in the post directly after he still decides to question other players and add a giant dose of cynicism..

This would have been so much easier if MOI had just investigated the person who claimed cop. Obviously you had doubts of him being scum, why not make sure?

Likewise for me, I have to assume you are scum because MOI is cleared cop.

And for the record it was a bad scum tactic for you to play against your buddy.

Dear lord I hate this post. This is the most common thing for scum to say when they are up for a lynch. It only makes TOGTFO scummier, pushes like these have always been very bothersome to me.

Set up 1- SpacePope is scum because both PRs are clear.
Set up 3- Matt is scum cause there is no doctor
Set up 4- MOI is scum cause there is no cop.

Matt can not be scum because MOI claimed to have been roleblocked which means that if he is legit town then it is set up 1. If he is not town then it is set up 4. Thus Matt is clear.

I realized, however, that MOI could have known there wasn't a cop since there was a doc save on spacepope. unvote

I was wrong and in that aspect and I am sorry. MOI has played smart and scum-MOI would know that there is not a cop after doc saving SpacePope. This means that he would claim cop cause town wouldn't know the difference. This makes it a difficult choice for me and seeing as I still agree with my original theory of scum not counter claim bussing their parter, I am leaning more towards MOI being mafia.

Jesus...this is odd scum play for TOGTFO, I must admit. He randomly decides to change his FOS even after being so bent on it being Spacepope.

But to play devil's advocate, me being scum would mean that I too have to be a roleblocker. Does it not strike anyone as odd that I would try to kill SpacePope when I know full well that there is a doctor among us? Instead, I would block him and try to shoot for the doctor. Just getting that out there...

Trying to defend himself in terrible ways.

But, with that being said, he has made some town posts and notions, and I am not completely bent on him being scum yet.

Also, I am now 100 percent sure that the scum is between MOI and TOGTFO. I am pretty much convinced that Spacepope is town. I need to do a re-read on MOI later. Sorry for the wall.

[TOGTFO]

I have only one point to address and that is for Matt.

My play today was an oops on my part because I did not sit down and think about the set-ups. That is why I just assumed MOI and you clear which left SpacePope as scum.

After gathering my thoughts and I realized I was wrong which is why my FoS has changed.

[Space Pope]

Vote: TOGTFO

I feel MoI's play has been more town than TOG's, therefore the vote.