Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[vollkan]

Vollkan, I did not raise the possibility in a "derisory way".
I listed:
- conceivable possibilty no. 1
- conceivable possibilty no. 2
- conceivable possibilty no. 3
Yes myself bussing him *was* a possibility, I was not going to purposely omit it.
It entered my head becasue I thought of it, regardless if others did'nt.

This:

I can't be a mafia tracker because my buddy would have to be a roleblocker and if the two of us used abilities then who sent in the kill? Oh wait! Actually I could be mafia with Hinduragi and we set this whole thing up.

sounds very much like you are deriding the notion that you could be scum bussing.

I can accept that you might have thought of it; but it just seems unlikely given none of us also thought of it.

[Maxous]

Hmm, well regardless.. I did think of it. I still don't get why you see me as "deriding the notion"

This does not add up!

I suspected there might be 2 mafia before N3 due to comments but it was'nt a strong suspicion(convincement even) until after the night when I tracked Hinduragi to killing Scott.
In N3 I worked off the assumption that there was 3 mafia. Hence I tracked Hinduragi to see if he would lie about using his JK power.

___________________
__________________

Subgenius' actions as mafia has been simple in this game. Distance from his buddies to avoid suspicion and avoid being pegged as a scumteam.(honestly, doing a quick read through the ISO I still find it hard to beleive he was Truant's partner)
The only time he deviated from this was the time he saw a chance to get suspicion away from CMAR. (Scott noticed this and started to suspect Subgenius for it. This was actually all forgotten in the mist of busting Haylen and Scott's elimination afterwards. This is clearly the reason why Scott was killed over Bgg, Scott would'nt of forgotten that)
He saw that defending CMAR would'nt work so went back to distancing and beleived my claim etc. He notices Regfan's doubts at the end and kills Bgg who was more inclined to beleive me. He then tries to suggest some of my comments were scum-motivated and try to get me mislynched.

If you guys are more willing to beleive that myself as mafia night killed the people more inclined to beleive me in LYLO, fake claimed a power role, argued against the set-up speculation reasoning during Haylen's lynch inviting the suspicion on me, cleared Regfan as a gambit on Day 3(him being a realistic mislynch), cleared Vollkan as a gambit(reducing the lynch options to myself and Subgenius), suggested there was only 2 mafia as a deliberate misleading town tell, gloated and suggested myself as bussing Hinduragi in a derisory way to pour cold water on it, and whatever else you guys think I gambited on - simply to create a motherlode of WIFOM to bring into a deliberate one vs one confrontation against a very pro-town looking player then you guys are over-complicating things here.

Subgenius' suggestions have been now been concluded as explainable by myself "thinking differently at the time than the other town players".
The reasoning that I did'nt kill Regfan in case he flipped as a gun role was reaching. He has now admitted it was an "outlandish reason". Particualry because eliminating Bgg from my perspective is "strange". But crucially, not from Subgenius' perspective

He has decided to mention various possibilties(i.e. he of could of been... etc. etc.) and hope one of them stuck(which one has on vollkan unfortunatly :I).
He again tried with my comments about targeting Hinduragi 'not adding up.'

Sure Regfan may not agree that tracking Hinduragi was the best course of action for me to take in those circumstances - however

I did

and I made that choice.

VOTE: Subgenius

[subgenius]

I suspected there might be 2 mafia before N3 due to comments but it was'nt a strong suspicion(convincement even) until after the night when I tracked Hinduragi to killing Scott.
In N3 I worked off the assumption that there was 3 mafia. Hence I tracked Hinduragi to see if he would lie about using his JK power.

The following quotes show that you were suggesting two members before N3.

That group you listed, is there scum in that? I'm unsure to be honest. I'm thinking maybe the mafia pairing is Haylen - Hinduragi (due to predeccessors actions of course). If there is a third member - I'm a bit stumped.

(ISO 80)

Maybe.
Alternatively it could be a 2 mafia set-up.

(Max ISO 78)
Whether you were sure about 2 mafia or not, you were certainly giving it credence before you tracked Hindu, which means that it should have entered your thought process that Hindu would be sending in the kill.

He saw that defending CMAR would'nt work so went back to distancing and beleived my claim etc.

Yes, I got cold feet about the CMAR lynch towards the end of D3. I thought people were settling on his lynch without much discussion, and I found it concerning considering we were most likely in MYLO. If most of the people on that wagon had given compelling evidence for their voting intentions, I wouldn't have been as concerned. I just thought the lynch was proceeding suspiciously easily. Proclaiming him almost certainly town at the end of D3 really was a bluff in the hopes of getting Mafia to kill him during the night. It didn't work for obvious reasons.

If you guys are more willing to beleive that ....argued against the set-up speculation reasoning during Haylen's lynch inviting the suspicion on me,

I love how defending a confirmed Maf is scummy when I was hesitant to lynch CMAR, but it was townie when you defended Haylen. We both did essentially the same thing, and you're being pretty hypocritical by trying to say that it's only scummy in my case. If Regfan and Vollkan care to look into both events and decide which seemed more genuine, I'd welcome it. I still don't know why you didn't find it interesting that Haylen's role was against the stated rules.

cleared Regfan as a gambit on Day 3

Again, this served to bolster your credibility, and you only need to lynch one town player, not three. As long as you didn't confirm all of us, you're in good shape.

...cleared Vollkan as a gambit

To be honest, I'm not sure you thought that part through. I noticed when Regfan suggested the roleblocking plan that you didn't seem especially enthusiastic about it. In hindsight, it might have been because you didn't realize that role blocker would be useful for further narrowing down the suspects. I also recall you questioning a few times today whether or not role blocking blocked night kills, further showing that maybe you hadn't taken that plan into account when you picked roleblocker as your final ability.

suggested there was only 2 mafia as a deliberate misleading town tell

Again, you were the only player that claimed to think this was likely. Everyone else correctly assumed there were three. You're a smart guy, and so are Vollkan and Regfan. They should ask themselves how much in question the setup actually was. To me, it really wasn't, and we already have two examples of other scum players misleading town in this way. I think it's compelling.

gloated and suggested myself as bussing Hinduragi

Again, you seem to be missing the point about this piece of evidence. It doesn't matter why you mentioned the possibility of you busing, the fact is that it never crossed the mind of any other player, because it seemed so absurdly unlikely that you would have a connection to Hindu. It's odd that you would have thought of it unless it was actually the case.



I suppose I'll go ahead and throw my vote in as well. If either Regfan or Vollkan would like any clarification of anything or questions, please ask them.

vote: Maxous

[havingfitz]

Votecount 5.2

subgenius - 1 (Maxous)
Maxous - 1 (subgenius)

Not voting: (Regfan, vollkan)

With 4 players left it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is 1200 est, Friday May 20th.

[vollkan]

If you guys are more willing to beleive that myself as mafia night killed the people more inclined to beleive me in LYLO, fake claimed a power role, argued against the set-up speculation reasoning during Haylen's lynch inviting the suspicion on me, cleared Regfan as a gambit on Day 3(him being a realistic mislynch), cleared Vollkan as a gambit(reducing the lynch options to myself and Subgenius), suggested there was only 2 mafia as a deliberate misleading town tell, gloated and suggested myself as bussing Hinduragi in a derisory way to pour cold water on it, and whatever else you guys think I gambited on - simply to create a motherlode of WIFOM to bring into a deliberate one vs one confrontation against a very pro-town looking player then you guys are over-complicating things here.

The clearing of Regfan and myself both make sense as a WIFOM gambit - presenting it as implausible, when you clearly have the intellectual capacity to plan a gambit like this, is just wrong. Also, you couldn't plausibly have claimed to want to RB anybody other than me, and so it makes perfect sense that you'd want to keep me alive, given that you probably would have thought that clearing me would make me more likely to side with you.

Again, you seem to be missing the point about this piece of evidence. It doesn't matter why you mentioned the possibility of you busing, the fact is that it never crossed the mind of any other player, because it seemed so absurdly unlikely that you would have a connection to Hindu. It's odd that you would have thought of it unless it was actually the case.

^ This.

I don't think it will surprise anybody to know that at this stage my vote would probably be going to Maxous. The evidence on either of them is slim, though; so I will be kicking myself if I get this wrong. Obviously, I'm not ready to vote yet, though.

[subgenius]

Re-reading an exchange between Max and Hindu:

Post 1268

Preview edit: For myself to be in a mafia team that would require the mafia to brillaintly double-guess who Hinduragi would roleblock/protect and take a big chance in revealing that he visited Scott to frame him.
I can't be a mafia tracker because my buddy would have to be a roleblocker and if the two of us used abilities then who sent in the kill?

Oh wait! Actually I could be mafia with Hinduragi and we set this whole thing up.

Ah still, anyway you look at it Hinduragi has to be mafia unless I'm like, half-psychic

Post 1270

Regarding the p-edit:
Yes, it would, that's why I explained how far-fetched it seemed. It's a huge stretch.
Good point.

LOL, that would be awesome.

Yeah, half-psychic, I'm still thinking about how you figured it out.

So, this is Hindu responding to the post where Max mentions the possibility of the two of them being in cahoots. He responds to each of Max's statements in sequence, and I've bolded Max's mention of busing and Hindu's response to the busing idea, which is, "LOL, that would be awesome." Why on earth would he say this? This is almost a covert high five between the two of them.

Additionally, why in the world does every one of Hindu's responses to Max in this post serve to give more credibility to Max's claim? This is the last thing Hindu should be doing unless he is part of a team that is banking on Max's credibility going into the next day. I've brought up this point before, but good lord, just look at it. That is not how scum responds to a town power role.

@Vollkan
Are there any loose strings that you would especially like to see addressed?

[vollkan]

So, this is Hindu responding to the post where Max mentions the possibility of the two of them being in cahoots. He responds to each of Max's statements in sequence, and I've bolded Max's mention of busing and Hindu's response to the busing idea, which is, "LOL, that would be awesome." Why on earth would he say this? This is almost a covert high five between the two of them.

There's a risk that Hindu may have done that deliberately, but if so I would have expected his response to be something more like over-the-top denial, rather than joking about it being awesome.

@Vollkan
Are there any loose strings that you would especially like to see addressed?

My questions have been answered; and, given where I started at the beginning of the day, I think you've made the case against Maxous (what little there is) clear enough. Neither of you is scummy, but there is just a much greater amount of things from Maxous which don't make sense but which are consistent with the bus ploy.

[Maxous]

The clearing of Regfan and myself both make sense as a WIFOM gambit - presenting it as implausible, when you clearly have the intellectual capacity to plan a gambit like this, is just wrong.

My point with all I mentioned is'nt that I don't have the "capacity", it's the praticality.
The actions as mafia would be counter-productive simply to get myself into a situation where I would have to attempt WIFOM my way into a mislynch.

That's my entire point here.

[vollkan]

The clearing of Regfan and myself both make sense as a WIFOM gambit - presenting it as implausible, when you clearly have the intellectual capacity to plan a gambit like this, is just wrong.

My point with all I mentioned is'nt that I don't have the "capacity", it's the praticality.
The actions as mafia would be counter-productive simply to get myself into a situation where I would have to attempt WIFOM my way into a mislynch.

That's my entire point here.

I agree - it doesn't make sense (other than as a gambit) for you to declare Regfan innocent, shrinking the field.

Ugh...I'm getting really frustrated by the WIFOM swinginess of this. Behaviour gives nothing to separate the pair of you and, whilst SubG is being convincing, everything just collapses into WIFOM.

[havingfitz]

FYI all...Regfan was prodded earlier this morning and has until 0800 EST tomorrow to post.

[Regfan]

Sorry, I have been following the thread, just having trouble making a decision.

Should have a more detailed post up tommorow evening sometime.

[subgenius]

Ugh...I'm getting really frustrated by the WIFOM swinginess of this. Behaviour gives nothing to separate the pair of you and, whilst SubG is being convincing, everything just collapses into WIFOM.

I'll admit that in this case I think I'm more comfortable having my neck on the line but knowing the truth than being the one who has to make the decision on little more than a gut feeling.

I don't think every part of the case against Max is WIFOM. In particular, the fact that he did not list the possibility of tracking Hindu to a kill shows an inconsistency in his story. There are quotes from before N3 that show him toying with the possibility of there only being two mafia. If he truly thought a two mafia team was a possibility, he would have also considered the possibility that Hindu would execute the kill, but he didn't mention that at all when he explained his choice to track Hindu. The fact that his explanations for his actions don't fully take into account the opinions he claimed to hold at the time he made his decision shows that he is lying. That is not WIFOM.

Secondly, I don't think Hindu's response to Max's claim has much WIFOM in it. Technically, it is possible that Maxous is town and Hindu went down easy in a conscious effort to look like a bus, but even when I try to look at it completely objectively (after all I'm quite biased when I consider this scenario), it just strikes me as exceedingly unlikely that a scum player would execute that kind of tactic on the fly without having any opportunity to discuss it with a scum partner. He would be handing a great deal of credibility to Max in the hopes that his partner would pick up on it the next day and be able to make a strong case without ever having the chance to confer with him. It's possible, but it seems overly complex and unlikely. The Max/Hindu bus plan is also complex, but they had an entire night period to plan it, so it seems far more plausible. Admittedly, there is some WIFOM, but one option seems so implausible that I really can't imagine anyone actually executing it. It's possible that I only hold this opinion because I'm not looking at it impartially, but I don't think so.

[Regfan]

This might sound strange but I just woke up a few minutes ago because I just realized something.

Maxous, there WAS a point where you believed the validity of Haylens claim, explain how you could possibly have considered the setup having:

-Town sledgehammer
-Town cop
-Town weakdoctor
-Town JOAT
-Town redirector?

[Regfan]

Sorry, posting my thoughts as they come.

Had you believed that was the case the setup would include 3-4 VTs with 5 town PR's.

[Maxous]

This might sound strange but I just woke up a few minutes ago because I just realized something.

Maxous, there WAS a point where you believed the validity of Haylens claim, explain how you could possibly have considered the setup having:

-Town sledgehammer
-Town cop
-Town weakdoctor
-Town JOAT
-

Mafia

redirector?

Fixed.
Particulary with the SK and town PR's

[Maxous]

Oh wait you're probably referring to my 'town Haylen' arguements to keep it MYLO.

I was using an excuse Regfan. I had a roleblocking ability in my arsnel.
If we got the lynch wrong I figured I had an informed shot at roleblocking the mafia sending in the kill.
Particulary if they quick hammered or something similar

[subgenius]

If you thought Haylen was a mafia redirector, why were you defending her at the end of D3? Also, if you thought Haylen's claim could be valid (which you must have if you were trying to slow down her lynch) how could you have also thought that town would have so many power roles while still entertaining the idea that there were a mere two mafia?

Why would you prefer to keep a maf alive to possibly role block than simply lynch the mafia? That's silly as hell.

[Maxous]

I said the set-up speculation reasoning was a bad idea. Just because I think somebody is mafia does'nt mean any reasoning goes. I could of been wrong about her being mafia, and there was mafia taking advantage for an easy lynch.
I thought it was valid claim...as a mafia power.
I did'nt prefer to keep mafia alive I was stating my willingness to lynch Haylen most of Day 3.

For further clarification the arguement for bringing the game into LYLO was to make 100% certain of Bgg's alignment. We were likely going to lynch the same people(Haylen or CMAR) regardless of it being LYLO or MYLO. I was certainly going to push for the same people.
I saw it as more advantageous to keep it at MYLO as if we mislynched I had one last chance to save the game with my night ability.

[Maxous]

I don't think every part of the case against Max is WIFOM. In particular, the fact that he did not list the possibility of tracking Hindu to a kill shows an inconsistency in his story.

For the last time, yes I speculated on 2 but acted under WCS assumption of 3.
As it turns out I would of targeted the same person

anyway

but that was'nt my thinking when I decided the target.

Technically, it is possible that Maxous is town and Hindu went down easy in a conscious effort to look like a bus, but even when I try to look at it completely objectively (after all I'm quite biased when I consider this scenario), it just strikes me as exceedingly unlikely that a scum player would execute that kind of tactic on the fly without having any opportunity to discuss it with a scum partner.

He likely just made a mistake, since he did'nt have much time to react.
I doubt he purposely confirmed he targeted Scott just to make me look bad.

To be honest that second paragraph in particular is really quite streching the reasoning here.

[Maxous]

Edit: Oh it turns out he had a few hours. Huh, I thought it was a lot less.

Still if Hinduragi intentionally planned that then I will be extremely impressed.
More feasible he simply made a mistake...

[subgenius]

I said the set-up speculation reasoning was a bad idea. Just because I think somebody is mafia does'nt mean any reasoning goes. I could of been wrong about her being mafia, and there was mafia taking advantage for an easy lynch.
I thought it was valid claim...as a mafia power.
I did'nt prefer to keep mafia alive I was stating my willingness to lynch Haylen most of Day 3.

This is riddled with contradictions. I can understand not being sure that someone is mafia and being wary of mafia pushing an easy mislynch (after all, that is pretty much what happened when I unvoted CMAR), but I cannot understand trying to take the wind out of a case against one of your top suspects without fully researching the accusations. Not only did you say that the setup speculations were invalid, but you also tried to argue that my point about her choice of defense was also invalid. My point was only indirectly related to setup speculation, but you still chose to dismiss it and add your support to Haylen's defense (and try to incriminate me in the process), and now you're trying to say that you thought she was mafia the whole time. I don't see how anyone could buy this.

He likely just made a mistake, since he did'nt have much time to react.

He had as much time to react as he wanted. It's not like we were close to deadline or anything. He could have taken as much time to make a non-idiotic response as he wanted. There was no rush, and he chose to help confirm your role.

I doubt he purposely confirmed he targeted Scott just to make me look bad.

Exactly, he purposely confirmed he targeted Scott just to make you look good. That's the whole point. It's possible that he simply made a mistake, but as I've argued before, Hindu seemed to have a solid understanding of the game, and admitting that he targeted a newly shot player is dumb beyond belief, so that seems unlikely.

[vollkan]

I said the set-up speculation reasoning was a bad idea. Just because I think somebody is mafia does'nt mean any reasoning goes. I could of been wrong about her being mafia, and there was mafia taking advantage for an easy lynch.
I thought it was valid claim...as a mafia power.
I did'nt prefer to keep mafia alive I was stating my willingness to lynch Haylen most of Day 3.

This makes no sense to me, so I'll try and break this down:
1) At the end of D3, did you or did you not think Haylen was more likely scum than not?
2) At the end of D3, did you or did you not want Haylen lynched?
3) If you DID think Haylen was scum, but did not want here lynched, why not?

[vollkan]

He likely just made a mistake, since he did'nt have much time to react.

I doubt he purposely confirmed he targeted Scott just to make me look bad.

Aside from what SubG's already said, I'm not sure what "mistake" you are alleging he made here. Hindu was a competent player and clearly had the ability to understand the game. Hence, I can't see how you can seriously say that Hindu might have thought he was achieving *something* but that he was, in fact, mistaken.

[Maxous]

This is riddled with contradictions. I can understand not being sure that someone is mafia and being wary of mafia pushing an easy mislynch (after all, that is pretty much what happened when I unvoted CMAR), but I cannot understand trying to take the wind out of a case against one of your top suspects without fully researching the accusations.

If you can't understand why did you earlier say you accepted my explanation? #1253

but you also tried to argue that my point about her choice of defense was also invalid.

You're going to have to point this one out.

I would'nt call Hinduragi dumb but yeah he made a silly mistake(unless he is

far more manipulative

than I first thought :p).
It happens in games, especially when you have to lie.

1) At the end of D3, did you or did you not think Haylen was more likely scum than not?
2) At the end of D3, did you or did you not want Haylen lynched?
3) If you DID think Haylen was scum, but did not want here lynched, why not?

1) Yes
2) Well, no. I wanted CMAR/Hinduragi lynched. Haylen was my secondary choice however.
3) I was'nt again her lynch per se but was concerned at the reasoning given. I thought if she was town mafia might of been taking advantage for an easy mislynch. Ironically the main one was Subgenius(hence the questioning) Read this again.

Aside from what SubG's already said, I'm not sure what "mistake" you are alleging he made here. Hindu was a competent player and clearly had the ability to understand the game. Hence, I can't see how you can seriously say that Hindu might have thought he was achieving *something* but that he was, in fact, mistaken.

Emm..huh?
I think he made a mistake saying he jailed Scott o_O

[subgenius]

If you can't understand why did you earlier say you accepted my explanation? #1253

Two reasons:
1. I really wanted to believe your claim and I was willing to cut you a bit of slack since everything else seemed to add up quite nicely.
2. When you were defending Haylen and making your later explanations of your defense, you hadn't said that you thought Haylen was scum at the end of D3. Now you're trying to say that you defended Haylen while also thinking she was scum, which doesn't make sense.

You're going to have to point this one out.

ISO 81

Further, I find Haylen's method of defense suspicious. If her role was valid, I would expect her to be legitimately surprised as well as irritated with the mod for assigning a role that could potentially put so much heat on her. Instead,

her first reaction is to explain why the role makes sense based on her understanding of normal rules

, which is pretty clearly incomplete, which would explain why she claimed redirector in the first place.

vote: Haylen

I raised an eyebrow at this vote..
She explained why her role can be in the game, why should she be outraged and surprised if she moderated a game that had a couple of these 'unusual' or whatever roles?

My point there was that besides her claim being against the rules, her defense was suspicious. This was a point based on psychology rather than set up speculation. The point was that a townie in her situation would have read the rules and realized that her role was explicitly forbidden and set about trying to convince town that regardless of the stated rules, the mod or game reviewers must have made a mistake. Instead, Haylen chose to present a lame series of arguments to show that her role was actually allowed. For some reason you immediately bought Haylen's explanations, came to her defense, and tried to transfer suspicion to me, yet now you're claiming you thought Haylen was scum the entire time.

I think he made a mistake saying he jailed Scott o_O

We're just going to have to disagree on this, and Regfan and Vollkan will have to decide which they think is more likely: Hindu made a series of boneheaded mistakes or Hindu presented a lame (even counterproductive) defense to help ensure a smooth claim and bus.

I think that between Hindu corroborating your tracking investigation and explicitly agreeing with all of your points about how unlikely it was for you to be scum (and bear in mind, these counterproductive behaviors continued through several posts), you're suggesting that Hindu had a remarkably sustained brain fart, while in my version he's following a previously agreed upon plan.