Post 1: the push on Oso for his weak case on EA. Doesn't really look like a bus, but I'm reconsidering this in the context of the unvote fairly soon (post 3) and the later insistence that Oso is town.
3: sets up a choice between Prosaurus, TS and Ender, based on the heat Javert was getting for not answering questions. I'm going to quote part of this one because it's telling how he builds the case and then draws a conclusion.
Necessary Evil wrote:I'm not liking the heat that Javert was receiving for not answering quesitons. That's a playstyle issue, not an alignment issue. Unforunatley, townies will jump all over people for this sort of thing all the time and it's easy for scum to hide among them. So, let's see; farside22 wasn't really voting Javert for not answering questions, so I'm not counting her. Twistedspoon has been active lurking for the most part and he voted Javert, so he might be scum. Prosaurus is very similar: he voted for Javert and he has been active lurking. ender241 voted Javert for not answering questions and Oso makes a compelling case for ender, but I don't think Oso is town and I'm not going to sheep his read whithout a strong town read on him. ender posted this:
ender241 wrote:You have misinterpreted what i'm saying, i'm saying he's either doing one of three things.
1. He is scum and basically trying to make himself stay alive for ages.
2. He's just a normally townie who's got himself into a sticky situation.
3. He's a DayVig and just a total dick who can't be assed posting and is just being a total dick about the whole game.
Thats what i'm trying to say, i don't want dicks in the game.
This looks like a scummy reaction to Oso's vote. He's trying to scramble away from what he said before:
ender241 wrote:UNVOTE: VOTE: Javert Start answering questions, i doubt your a DayVig.
ender241 wrote:Basically your using "Day-vig" as your excuse to say what you want.
Also, ender thinks there are three possibilities regarding Javert and only one of them invovles him being scum, why vote? Between the vote and his posting, his behavior does not suggest the other two possibilities. Then he unvotes and votes me for lurking for a whole day (oh, for shame!). That's rather suspicious.
It's hard to pick between Twistedspoon, Prosaurus, and ender, but ender is just enough ahead that he deserves my vote.
UNVOTE: VOTE: ender241
So TS and Prosaurus he basically has only two points against: the objection to Javert's attitude, and active lurking. In contrast, he clearly builds a case on Ender based on a couple of additional points, so why is he only 'just enough ahead'? The phrasing implies a more equal level of scumminess than the post actually indicates, so I'm wondering whether he's making an effort to look like he suspects TS or Prosaurus more than he actually does. This makes me more inclined to believe that at least one of TS and Prosaurus is scum.
4: features a clarification to Prosaurus that active lurking means he has been posting but not contributing. Gives me pause for thought about coaching.
5: says Javert should 'shoot whoever he wants' rather than letting it be decided by vote. Good way to distance yourself from any decision-making to avoid implication; bear in mind that Ender is the vote leader at this stage and Javert is personally voting Ender, so this doesn't really tell us too much else other than NE probably wasn't particularly worried about scum getting vigged.
6: now 'Oso is looking more town by the post'. NE's focus has not really been on Oso since post 3, and there's not much clarification of this townread, although the implication is that Oso's case on Ender is pro-town. There's also what is basically an OMGUS reaction to TS's vote based on NE being 'under the radar', as we can see here:
Necessary Evil wrote:
Twistedspoon wrote:indeed, NE has gone under the radar for too long
I'm fine with this wagon. My vote on Javert is utterly redundant anyways now that his wagon is gone and he's claimed :/
VOTE: NE
Twistedspoon is still active lurking for the most part and he's now sheeping Me=Weird's terrible vote on bad reasoning. I'm not "under the radar" just because I don't post as much as some people.
UNVOTE: VOTE: Twistedspoon
There's a slightly hostile tone to this response that makes me think that NE is a little too angry at TS for sheeping M=W's vote; potential here for a buddy getting annoyed that TS has decided to hop on his wagon based on what he perceives to be a weak case.
7: Very interesting snippet here on the vig:
Necessary Evil wrote:Really the best way to play a vig is to kill problem players like VIs, lurkers, etc. It sounds like that's what Javert is planning on doing anyway.
So we can tell two things from this:
1. NE's not overly concerned about any of the VIs/lurkers dying.
2. NE's perception is that Javert is going to kill someone who he considers a VI/lurker.
Players NE has stated are 'active lurking' at this point: Prosaurus, Twistedspoon. The only other player he's discussed lurking in relation to is himself, although Klazam is obviously a major absentee at this stage and would be a prime lurker vig target. NE hasn't actually stated he thinks anyone is a VI at this stage, so again this may be as simple as him thinking Javert is going to shoot Ender/Klazam. I still count this as a slight point in favour of Prosaurus and TS being town, given that he'd have to agree with a choice of shot on either of those given his repeated accusations of active lurking.
8: tells Prosaurus that Klazam's appearance at an opportune moment is a null-tell. Why warn someone off suspecting a player who has done nothing all game? Possible coaching again.
Farside also challenges NE about Pro, and NE responds by saying that neither TS nor Pro are scumhunting, but TS is far worse. He even goes so far as to call him 'obvscum' here. Pro looks like a more plausible buddy than TS here.
9: Response to TS's claim. Worth quoting:
Necessary Evil wrote:I won't have time to write a full post until tomorrow, so just a couple of thoughts:
a) Javert needs to post ASAP.
-and-
b) TS is just dripping with scum, but his claim fits with his speculation about a one-shot themed game and it looks like we're going to give him at least a night anyway. I wouldn't loose any sleep if he was killed/lynched, but if the rest of you are moving on, I'm fine with that.
UNVOTE: Twistedspoon
Definitely going with the town on this one. Perceives that people might be buying TS's claim and openly admits that he'll give him a chance if everyone else is. The thing that irks me about this is he's unusually eager to drop his number one suspect, which makes me suspect TS. However, this probably does help NE to appear pro-town, so it cuts both ways.
10: Putting up a huge red flag on this one:
Necessary Evil wrote:Erratus Apathos wrote:Necessary Evil wrote:@EA: I'm surprised that you were grilling Klazam over lurking after the last game the three of us were in (it's completed, so no worries). At least he posted that he was V/LA this time. Why are you attacking him over it now?
What are you talking about? Klazam didn't lurk in Mini 1133 at all. He had 59 posts which is pretty damn good considering he was only alive for roughly nine RL days. For comparison this game has been active for roughly eight RL days and he's made ten posts. Half of which are worthless saporovirusy fluff.
Well, I disagree with you about the other game and your standard for lurking is odd. But that's neither here nor there. I looked at his ISO and you do have a point about him. I was going to say that ten posts in eight days can hardly be described as lurking, but as you pointed out, a lot of those posts don't contribute much. I get the feeling that something is up with him, but I can't really put my finger on it yet.
It was definitely odd to me that he was soft with TS before his claim.
Bolded for emphasis. This absolutely screams of subtly trying to tie Klazam to TS, and there's only one reason NE would do that. I feel very much more inclined to believe TS is scum after this.
At the end of this post, NE also sets up a Prosaurus-M=W dichotomy by saying that he thinks only one of them is scum. Vote count context: Prosaurus is the vote leader with 2 votes, with 5 other players on 1. That means that this has a hint of NE covering his back with Pro; he doesn't seem to be looking at him critically and really has just commented on his active lurking and lack of contributions rather than trying to prod him into anything.
12: NE follows up by making a case and voting for M=W. He doesn't appear to have looked at Prosaurus here; he just concludes that he doesn't think Prosaurus is scum because he believes that M=W is. At this stage, it looks a bit more like NE is just trying to set up mislynches; he pushes the idea that M=W and Pro aren't buddies, and he knows M=W will flip town, opening him up to fake reconsidering his reads D2 and change his attitude to Pro. That said, the lack of analysis of Pro's posts still concerns me slightly.
13: mostly a long rant against M=W that I won't go into for obvious reasons. There is an interesting note at the bottom that he's read EA's case on Oso and doesn't really agree with it (although it's not 'awful' either). He also restates his town read on Oso after the early part of the game. The vote context here is that M=W has switched his vote to Oso and EA is repeatedly shouting 'Vote Oso' at everyone. There's not really much danger of Oso getting lynched, though - M=W now has 4 votes and EA isn't garnering much Oso support. I'm inclined to think this is more likely just NE being consistent with his Oso 'townread' than it is defence from a buddy.
16: TS has just claimed his guilty, so NE naturally immediately votes for him. He also agrees with Maxous about his wagon being too fast. For the record, these votes, in order, are: Twistedspoon, Quilford, Farside, Rhinox. Of the wagoners, we have a confirmed townie and a flipped townie, so the only person left that NE could be pointing the finger at here is Farside. Obviously we have to take everything from here on with a grain of salt, but this makes me feel better about Farside-town.
The rest: from here on it's basically just an effort to make TS look bad and asking how he could survive without claiming a guilty. He also makes some attempts to implicate Rhinox based on him believing TS despite previously thinking he was scum. I think this probably lends weight to the gambit theory; if TS gets lynched in this situation, NE's not only going to get lynched the next day himself, but he's also cleared Rhinox because of this push. Bear in mind that Quilford and Javert are both already practically confirmed town at this stage, and NE pushing on Rhinox doesn't make much sense unless he knows there's something to link him to. There's absolutely no way Rhinox would get lynched at that stage, and if NE knows TS is town, then all he's doing is giving town a boost by going after Rhinox so strongly as to clear him when TS gets lynched. That would leave NE + scumbuddy against three fairly obv-town players with NE guaranteed to get lynched the next day.
