Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

havingfitz · Post Post #525 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 5:03 am

Checking in. I'm about 2/3 through my read of the game.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@Havingfitz - Now would be a good time to get your thoughts into the thread
. I very much want to see your opinions today.

I'm very glad you want to see my opinions today.

I'll post my thoughts when I finish my read (should be today...tomorrow at the latest).

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #526 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 7:43 am

CJDrum ISO Review –

ISO 1 wrote:Now, I know it's page 6, but I haven't really posted yet... What do we think of the MafiaSheep? It's not like they can kill us... But it's hard to differentiate between Werewolf-tell and Mafia-tell. I think we should only kill Mafia if we don't have a Werewolf in hand.

In review this was a clear tell by CJ.

People CJ voted for

–

Day1 – Empking and Twisted
Day2 – Sloth and himself.

Still living players with any significant interactions coming from CJDrum –

Wicked and Neil

--

Not much to see there. What I can take from this –

Given CJ’s play I’m inclinded to thing his partners will be found in the players he was more or less ignoring completely. Of the remaining alive that would be Hez, Regfan, DK, and Muffin. I’ll be ISOing those players to see who best fits partners.

Regarding his Sloth Vote –

I’m going to dig at this a little bit because

1. I don’t think it is bussing
2. It will probably give more insight into CJ’s partners.

CJ’s vote for Sloth comes at 465. The previous official Vote-Count is as follows –

Mod at 459 wrote:Vote Count:

HezLucky (3) - LynchMePls, zMuffinMan, Regfan
DeityKabuto (2) - MagnaofIllusion, neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
neil1113 (1) - DeityKabuto

Not Voting: cjdrum, Sloth, Wickedestjr.

Following this LMP moves the vote from Hez to Sloth at 464. Thus the wagons were

Hez (2) – Muffin and Regfan
DK (2) – MoI and Neil
MoI (1) – Hez
Neil (1) – DK
Sloth (1) – LMP

4 minutes after LMP (confirmed Town) votes for Sloth and CJdrum immediately elevates it in a 2 way tie with Hez and DK.

The lack of push on both Hez and DK means to me both are more likely to be partners with him. And it looks like he simply selected the easiest target (Sloth) to go after.

DeityKabuto · Post Post #527 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 8:54 am

I am more positive that he may be werewolf, nobody agreed when I said to lynch him D2.

Vote neil1113

At the end of D2, I was also right about the fact that the most scummiest were the last on his wagon, which in that case the guy hammered himself. I am also a bit suspicious of Regfan being scum. But I feel more safe with neil1113 gone.

Regfan · Post Post #528 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:09 am

Welcome havingfitz.

In light of the scum flip I'm going to need to do some re-reading should have my thoughts up later tonight or by latest tommorow. Deity, the fact that it's a new day doesn't mean that you can continue to avoid answering the questions I've constantly had to ask you, here they are:

1. Post #476 by DeityKabuto - Be more specific please, who do you think the 'several scum' pushing on you are. Can you provide examples of them pushing on you?

2. Post #487 by DeityKabuto - You say that at least one, likely both of zMuffinMan and Neil are scum, do you believe they're on the same scum-team? Yes or no. What makes you believe they are if the answer is yes?

3. You state you believe Cjdrum is mafia, therefore what would it matter if he was 'right or wrong' about his suspicions?

DeityKabuto · Post Post #529 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 12:26 pm

Regfan wrote:Welcome havingfitz.

In light of the scum flip I'm going to need to do some re-reading should have my thoughts up later tonight or by latest tommorow. Deity, the fact that it's a new day doesn't mean that you can continue to avoid answering the questions I've constantly had to ask you, here they are:

1. Post #476 by DeityKabuto - Be more specific please, who do you think the 'several scum' pushing on you are. Can you provide examples of them pushing on you?

2. Post #487 by DeityKabuto - You say that at least one, likely both of zMuffinMan and Neil are scum, do you believe they're on the same scum-team? Yes or no. What makes you believe they are if the answer is yes?

3. You state you believe Cjdrum is mafia, therefore what would it matter if he was 'right or wrong' about his suspicions?

1. You are potentially one of the scum pushing on me, neil is also one of them. This is not an OMGUS. You are so eager to have me answer your questions. And Neil is so eager to get me off his d**k.

2. I can see you and Neil as werewolf, but I can't see Neil and ZMuffinMan as Werewolf.

I can see ZMuffinman and Cjdrum as Mafia.

Werewolfs: You, and Neil

Mafia: ZMuffinman and Cjdrum

There are not much towns left, and I am one of the few townies alive, by this post, I will most likely be the next victim of the Werewolf, and I think we already lost, so as of now, I would have the Mafia people claim, and they should side with Townies to at least get rid of the werewolves.

neil1113 · Post Post #530 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 3:27 pm

Nice to see you too Deity.

Now onto actual scum hunting:

ISOing CJ was to no avail, as my suspicions brought me with 4 possible suspects of his partners (which obviously is wrong, as there can only be 2 partners of his.) They are:

Hez, Deity, Sloth, and DK.

However, I'm not so much concerned with trying to find his partners, as I am trying to find the werewolves. Considering Mafia are just useless, and it's the Wolves that do the killing, it'd be nice to try and lynch one of them. Considering the circumstances, I'll eliminate VI Deity, and easy wagon'd Sloth from my main suspects and focus in on Hez and DK. I'll be ISOing each of them individually, and posting what I find (or don't find) in these ISO's.

I'm wondering why LynchMePlz was night killed though. I could speculate and say it's because others believed him to be scum too, and so the Wolves were hoping to kill a Mafia member. But to be honest, that then makes me look bad because I was pressing him so hard as scum before the day ended.

Also, though I'm trying to mostly ignore your useless posts in this game Deity, I do have one question. "I will most likely be the next victim of the Werewolf" why did you post this? And what makes you think anyone in this game that could kill would waste their time getting rid of you in particular? Do you really think Wolves are more interested in killing town, then Mafia? Or did you post the "Rational Night Kill Fear" tell in order to look townie, when in reality (WIFOM here, bare with me) you're the second Werewolf, and you're wanting to distance yourself from that term so that you can be seen as town, but in reality are scum in disguise? (/end WIFOM)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #531 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 4:16 pm

Well, my suspicion of Hez hasn't changed at all. Although if Hez+Wicked are scum of the same faction, they're likely werewolves and not mafia. It's also entirely possible I'm completely off in my Wicked read, but I'm very sure Hez is scum of some sort at this point.

VOTE: Hez

havingfitz · Post Post #532 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 6:00 pm

OK...I finished my read. When I replace into game I usually go through the game and post my thoughts on posts as I go along. I'll post my notes below and provide more input later but I'll give my initial reads now.

Leaning scum - DK, MOI, ZMuffin, and neil. I'm not confident enough in my scum radar to believe I have pegged all four but these four have most of my suspicions. After I look through my notes again later they might change due my impending VCA....which will probably not be until tomorrow.

I'm leaning town on Hezlucky, Regfan, and Wickedestjr. Same as above...this might change after my VCA. If I left anyone out they would be a null atm.

I'll put a vote down after I have a chance to look my notes over again and do a VCA.

Feel free to fire away with any questions.

To reiterate...these scum and town reads are subject to change as I'm in no shape atm (have been out watching some playoff NHL) to elaborate on them and I'm a bit impaired. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Spoiler: My read through thoughts:

HezLucky · Post Post #533 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 7:35 pm

I'm here. Want to lynch Magna or Muffin today. Don't really care which but it'll be hard to convince me otherwise. Going to do a reread though I'm not sure how useful that will be. Maybe I'll ISO.

Regfan · Post Post #534 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 9:52 pm

DeityKabuto wrote: 1. You are potentially one of the scum pushing on me, neil is also one of them. This is not an OMGUS. You are so eager to have me answer your questions. And Neil is so eager to get me off his d**k.

I'm eager to get you to get answers from you because because you avoiding doing so appeared as if you were scared or had no answer to them. I haven't attempted to push on you at all, infact I don't see you being mafia with cjdrum due to threatening a deadline and attempting to push his lynch without him having a chance to respond to it.

DeityKabuto wrote: 2. I can see you and Neil as werewolf, but I can't see Neil and ZMuffinMan as Werewolf.

I fail to see any possible way you could believe that Neil and I were a team after I attempted to push his lynch during a portion of yesterday.

Given the interactions yesterday and the fact that Wicked pushed the Cjdrum case almost signle-handly I don't believe there's any possible way he's mafia as he'd know that bussing could potentially lead towards him being night-killed and the town-cred gained and lynch of his partner all being for nothing.

Although I can understand most of Havingfitz's thought process in Post #532 a great deal of his summary is just commentry on what has occured without stating if he believes it's a scum-tell, town-tell or unallignment related. I'm interested in hearing exactly what his reads are based on, the mention of zMuffins avatar being possibly related with this game is a massive stretch. Though I really don't see Havingfitz as mafia, the interactions between Sloth and Cjrum in Post #275, 276, 277 and 278 make them very unlikely to be partners. Cjdrums vote on Sloth in Post #465 solidfies this. So with all that in mind, HavingFitz is either Town or Werewolf.

Cjdrums mentions the fact he believes one of Neil or Empking are mafia in Post #133. Due to his massive lack of actvity in the game you would believe that his vote would be straight towards Neil on day two giving the reasoning he stated in this post exactly allowing him to seem as if he's scumhunting while pushing towards a town-lynch. The fact he didn't do this at all screams as if his intial post was an attempt at distancing between Neil and himself.

I still am failing to see the case put up against MoI at all, from what I can tell it revolves around his interaction with Empking however I find his frustration with Empking and push towards him a town-tell if anything and can understand his annoyance at Empkings refusal to quit discussing semantics. Could someone summarize it for me because I'm reading him as town at the current moment.

I'm unsure of how to read zMuffinMan, I can understand part of the case against him but I'm unsure if I agree with it. His behaviour is drastically different from the previous game we played together however he replaced into that game and it didn't involve any players such as the players in this game ie, there were a lot of lurkers in that game. I'm going ISO and read into him in the upcoming days.

I still believe HezLucky is scum, I've noticed he has almost avoided him completly in his rating system while still commenting on his posts, an example would be he pointed out he beleived Cjdrum was confused between the werewolves and the mafia, confusion of that sort is a town-tell or that's how I generally read or in this game misread it however HezLucky never accounted for that comment when it came to rating Cjdrum.

Overall Reads

Town Reads:

Wickedestjr, MagnaofIllusion.

Town or Werewolf Reads:

HavingFitz, DeityKabuto

Mafia Reads:

Neil113, HezLucky

Null Reads:

zMuffinMan

Vote: Neil113

Though, to be honest I'm unsure if it's optimal to aim for werewolves or mafia today, MoI I'd like your thoughts on this.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #535 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:06 pm

@hf,

I sort of skimmed over the wall.

As far as I can tell, you think I'm scum because of links to DK and... my avatar?

@Regfan,

I don't actually think I'm playing drastically different in this game. There's probably a few differences because the setup and activity levels are different, but apart from that, I'd like to know what you think is so different.

Regfan · Post Post #536 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:19 pm

zMuffinMan wrote:I don't actually think I'm playing drastically different in this game. There's probably a few differences because the setup and activity levels are different, but apart from that, I'd like to know what you think is so different.

In the previous game that we played your thoughts and opinions on people weren't held back in any respect you were willing to state when you believe bad play is occuring as well as when you believe bad play is being misread. You avoided doing that throughout most of the attack against Empking and again on Twistedspoon.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #537 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:54 pm

eh, I disagree. I wasn't as active as I was in our other game, but I do think I called the attack on Empking bad when a wagon actually formed on him (although I don't think he was playing badly, it was just a bad wagon because he wasn't playing in a scummy way). As for TS, I think he was playing in a legitimately scummy manner; it wasn't as simple as bad play like Tragedy's.

Regfan · Post Post #538 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:44 pm

zMuffinMan wrote:eh, I disagree. I wasn't as active as I was in our other game, but I do think I called the attack on Empking bad when a wagon actually formed on him (although I don't think he was playing badly, it was just a bad wagon because he wasn't playing in a scummy way). As for TS, I think he was playing in a legitimately scummy manner; it wasn't as simple as bad play like Tragedy's.

A great deal of the reasoning against Empking was worse than logic you attacked me for in regards to Tragedy, though to be bringing up the flaws in it would likely not have changed anything. Though I do agree in regards to finding Twistedspoon legitimatly scummy.

DeityKabuto · Post Post #539 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:52 pm

Neil, it is pretty obvious you are a Werewolf, you and Regfan.

My word is pointless, since I'm one of the few towns alive.

2 Mafia alive
2 Werewolf

As I said, I want the Mafia to claim now and help the town.

Regfan · Post Post #540 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 12:05 am

DeityKabuto wrote:As I said, I want the Mafia to claim now and help the town.

It's literally impossible for mafia to joint with town, if you're attempting to gambit it's rather pointless as everyone left in this game is rather experienced. At this point we need a cross-kill to have any chance in the game. Can you explain what makes you believe that Neil is a werewolf and not a mafia?

neil1113 · Post Post #541 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 1:29 am

Deity, thanks for answering my questions.

Regfan, "what makes you believe that Neil is a werewolf?"

Because Deity is Mafia? Scum slip?

Also Regfan, you didn't make a case against me. You made a cast against CJ, then voted me. I can't accurately defend CJ's actions no more then you can defend anyone else's actions? While some of your points would be valid (some, not all) against CJ, that's the problem. They are against CJ.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #542 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:43 am

VOTE: Havingfitz

Now that he’s actually committed to reads in thread in his ‘catch-up’ post I feel there is information to work with.

I’ll address that monstrosity of a catch-up post later in an independent post. For now LMP’s strong suspicion of Sloth is a great jumping off point for my vote today. Especially since CJdrum's play against your slot before he was under pressure means you are very likely NOT Evil Sheep.

--

DK wrote:Mafia: ZMuffinman and Cjdrum

I’m going to go ahead and label this as an off-shoot of my Newbie game “Player messing up the number of Mafia tell”. DK specifically has listed only 2 Evil Sheep including the now deceased CJ.

Thanks for confirming my suspicion in that regard DK.

DK wrote:There are not much towns left, and I am one of the few townies alive, by this post, I will most likely be the next victim of the Werewolf, and I think we already lost, so as of now, I would have the Mafia people claim, and they should side with Townies to at least get rid of the werewolves.

1. Not much Town left? 8 players are alive – 4 Town and 4 scum of two flavors.
2. Appeal to Fear (we’ve already lost) noted.
3. This pretty much is poorly designed grandstanding meant to grab “Town” cred. It is quite clear that the Evil Sheep aren’t going to out and claim.

I’d be strongly pushing your wagon today if I didn’t think you were likely Evil Sheep.

--

Neil wrote:I'm wondering why LynchMePlz was night killed though. I could speculate and say it's because others believed him to be scum too, and so the Wolves were hoping to kill a Mafia member. But to be honest, that then makes me look bad because I was pressing him so hard as scum before the day ended.

Interesting that you would choose to post this when you specifically say it makes you look bad.

I, however, am more than happy to speculate on why LMP was dead. I certainly anticipate the cries of WIFOM … there is a solid grain of truth to that argument.

But in this set-up (known roles) there is one strong reason for the Werewolves to kill anyone after the Seer is dead – they are the greatest threat them. With that in mind I would guess that the bottom of LMP’s scum list is very likely to contain a Wolf.

That list was –

TOWN
MagnaofIllusion
Regfan
neil1113
DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan
Wickedestjr
cjdrum
HezLucky
Sloth
SCUM

Furthermore this makes me encourage to look at your ISO in more detail. Especially since my gut says you probably avoided Sloth like a plague both days.

--

Muffin wrote:It's also entirely possible I'm completely off in my Wicked read, but I'm very sure Hez is scum of some sort at this point.

At this stage that’s not good enough. Which faction do you think Hez is more likely to be in?

--

Hez wrote:I'm here. Want to lynch Magna or Muffin today. Don't really care which but it'll be hard to convince me otherwise. Going to do a reread though I'm not sure how useful that will be. Maybe I'll ISO.

Glad to see that the flip of CJ as Evil Sheep (who avoided mentioning you like you had the cooties, BTW) doesn’t make you look at your reads with new eyes.

That’s sarcasm. But given I think you are very likely Evil Sheep I’d rather cast about for Werewolves for lynching today.

--

Regfan wrote:Though, to be honest I'm unsure if it's optimal to aim for werewolves or mafia today, MoI I'd like your thoughts on this.

I believe the optimal play for today is lynching a Werewolf. The Evil Sheep only remain a threat to them from the standpoint of victory due to numbers. Eliminating another Evil Sheep more or less eliminates that threat to the Wolves.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #543 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:48 am

Werewolf.

I see more of a hez-wicked connection than a hez-cj connection, and I see no real reason to think wicked-hez-cj are mafia because I don't think wicked is mafia with cj. It's possible, but I doubt it.

But if hez were lynched and flipped mafia, I'd need to re-evaluate my read on wicked.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #544 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:21 am

Hez ISO

–

RVS vote for Wicked.

ISO 2 – Votes DK for having a ‘stupid’ statement.

ISO 3 – First content wall post … does not mention DK, CJdrum, Wicked, Muffin, or Regfan or Having’s slots.

ISO 6 – Second large content post –

Recomments on DK’s stupid post at 99. Says DK’s 118 is ‘retarded’ and calls him his ‘new number 2’. Yet agrees with DK’s read on Caboose (saying 132 was a Good Post).

Says CJ’s 133 raised a good point.

Given my slight suspicion of Sloth (not mentioned here) and stronger suspicion of MuffinMan, if I were in Magna's shoes i would definitely have asked them something as well. Maybe Magna is not paying attention to one of his buddies on purpose?

1. Hez at the point of this comment had not mentioned a single point about Sloth. Why is there suspicion?
2. Attempting to draw immediate links between players. Behavior which continues consistently Day 1 before any flips happen.

No other mentions of CJ drum in this ISO at all. Note that he slots DK as his second place suspect but gives a ‘reason’ to not vote him – “Esp given I am afraid that DK might be the biggest noob ever.”

ISO 7 – Votes DK as his highest vote getter after Empking claims.

ISO 8 – Yet another large wall o content –

CJDrum #274 makes it seem to me like he isn't bothering to READ the game. it's possible he hasn't foudn enough time for it, thanks to Empking's
spam. It's also possible he's scum adn has no motivation to scumhunt. This will be cleared up in future days, I hope. {no points}

So he identifies behavior that is suspect, but specifically goes out of his way not to ding CJdrum for it (since it will be cleared up in future days).

Gets ‘a good feeling’ from DK’s 296 while simultaneously saying it comes from a “huge VI”.

CJDrum's posts are useless to me now, but are goign to be interesting once we get some flips. I am going to refrain from trying to read him
until that time.

Specifically fence-sitting on CJ. His posts are ‘useless’ but he doesn’t want to commit to a read on him until flips happen.

In this post he unvotes DK (still his number 1 actual viable suspect per points) to vote me with “DK could be a VI” as an excuse.

This is the last post of Day 1

ISO 9 – Opens the day with DK still as his Top read via his ‘points system’ but specifically avoids once again voting for him because he is a VI. Slots CJ right in the middle of the pack saying “he has a hard time getting a read on him”

ISO 11 –

Corrects CJ on his ‘mix-up’ of Evil Sheep and Werewolves at 430. Given we know CJ flipped Evil Sheep this screams “Hey look at my partner Town-telling right here!!!!”

Dings DK’s 439 as scummy voting.

Still doesn’t vote for DK who remains at the top of his ‘list’ despite specifically calling 439 a scummy post that distinguishes from VI behavior.

ISO 13 – “Why do I have three vote?” Nervousness in face of pressure.

(FTR: I don't inherently oppose a Drum lynch but there are at least 3 people I would rather lynch first - Magna, Muffin and Sloth)

Poorly managed distancing on CJ. He doesn’t oppose a CJ lynch even though in his last Points list CJ is in the “all others – 50/100” category? That makes no sense from an honest Town perspective. There are 6 other players above CJ on his list. Town Hez should not agree to a slot that falls well below the "alive number of scum" line on his 'calculator'.

--

TL DR Summary

– Hez’s behavior towards CJ is highly indicative of partnership. No strong reads on the slot. Soft distancing but keeps a strong focus on others.

His DK read supports my thougthts as well – DK has been riding the top or second slotof his “points computer” but he’s carefully managed to avoid actually voting for him based on weak “VI” defense. Not he specifically didn’t touch the DK wagon Day 2 when it was the Top competing wagon.

I’m happy sloting Hez and DK as the remaining Evil Sheep after this re-read. It will help me narrow down my focus on the Werewolves today.

Wickedestjr · Post Post #545 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:26 am

zMuffinMan wrote:I just checked Hez's meta. There aren't many games, but his playstyle is different in the games he's flipped town.
There's none of the complaining that he's doing in this game
, and when I was reading through his posts in games he was town I didn't get the same feeling that his posts were forced and insincere like I'm getting in this game.

Have you looked at his scum play? Did you find any instances where he was complaining as scum?

MoI wrote:If you can point me to post numbers where you feel I am ignoring your post and you expect response from me please let do so and I’d be happy to respond.

Did you have anything to say in response to 356? I had issue with your plan for handling the seer.

Hmm... I thought DK was probably town, but that read has weakened after he voted neil1113. Yesterday he voted both neil and I for pushing for the Empking lynch and Twistedspoon lynches respectively, because both players flipped town. However, there is an inconsistency: he goes into a lot of effort to justify his original vote for neil, but justifies his vote for me with a one-liner. Why is that? Possible DK-neil connection. Or DK could be scum that is more confident in his vote for neil because he's gotten more attention than me.

While I don't like DK's vote for neil, neil's response is terribly scummy. I suspected that some of his previous suspicions/accusations in this game were based on OMGUS, but I am 110% certain that that is the case for his DK vote. Firstly, he is voting DK because he thought the reasoning DK gave for voting him was bad, however, this was the

same

reasoning DK used against

me

. So, if neil1113 really had a problem with this logic, then why didn't he say anything when

I

was being attacked for it? Secondly, I also believe it is OMGUS, because prior to the vote, neil had made

no mention

of suspecting DK (at least from a skim of his iso). So all of a sudden, DK makes one post he has issues with and he becomes more voteworthy than anyone else. I'm not buying it. Thirdly, I'm surprised he didn't vote for HezLucky: after skimming his ISO from day 2, he

never

expressed any interest in voting HezLucky despite not ever giving any sign of that suspicion diminishing (that I can remember) and considering that was who he had been voting at the end of day 1, I find this suspicious. Also, he hadn't been voting anybody at the time of his vote for DK almost as if he was waiting for something suspicious to happen, which seems odd considering he was able to find a place for his vote at the end of day 1. I'm pretty sure neil is scum after this. I'd move my vote there, but I'm not necessarily certain he's a Werewolf (the group I would like to go after today) and I'd also like to finish catching up.

Regfan wrote:1. WickedJestrs post with his reads screams town here, mafia generally attempt to avoid stating certain thoughts on other players as it cuts down possible future mslynches.

While I'm glad you correctly see me as town, I find it hard to believe you actually get this impression from the post where I gave my reads. It seems like fairly weak evidence to say that it 'screams town'. Regfan, can you elaborate on this point? Posting reads seems to be something that many players do all the time regardless of allignment. While I can see how it could be a very slight towntell, I don't see how it 'screams town'. Also, you make no mention of LynchMePls despite him doing the exact same thing (and even putting his reads in order of scummiest to towniest). Any particular reason?

Regfan wrote:2. Wicked, if you had to name two people were town for sure here, who would they be and why?

Why do you need to know this?

Hopefully I'll be able to catch up a little more... Most of my MS time was spent making this post.

Wickedestjr · Post Post #546 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:30 am

Also, as I said in the previous post, I think we need to aim for a Werewolf lynch today. Werewolves are our biggest threat right now and if we don't lynch one of them today, it will be MyLo tomorrow and they'll be very close to winning whereas two mafia surviving to tomorrow isn't as much of a cause for concern (especially considering the possibility of one of them getting nk'd).

I haven't read the whole thread yet, so I'm sorry if you guys have already given your thoughts on this, but if you haven't, what do you guys think of the idea of aiming for a werewolf?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #547 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:36 am

Wicked wrote:Have you looked at his scum play? Did you find any instances where he was complaining as scum?

He hasn't flipped scum yet that I've seen.

HezLucky · Post Post #548 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 8:05 am

Magna wrote:Interesting that you would choose to post this when you specifically say it makes you look bad.

I, however, am more than happy to speculate on why LMP was dead. I certainly anticipate the cries of WIFOM … there is a solid grain of truth to that argument.

But in this set-up (known roles) there is one strong reason for the Werewolves to kill anyone after the Seer is dead – they are the greatest threat them. With that in mind I would guess that the bottom of LMP’s scum list is very likely to contain a Wolf.

That list was –

TOWN
MagnaofIllusion
Regfan
neil1113
DeityKabuto
zMuffinMan
Wickedestjr
cjdrum
HezLucky
Sloth
SCUM

Vote: MagnaofIllusion

who is a --WEREWOLF-- after this post.

Let me tell you why:

Magna is trying to speculate on why LMP is dead, which is fine. However, it's more than likely that he killed LMP himself, looked at his scum list
and thought "there aer some easy lynches I can push on the scum side", then tried to justify LMP's death by stating that LMP "knew something special"

This is not AT ALL how a town person thinks. I'm about to tell you how a town person (myself) thinks:

The reason LMP is dead is because he is no longer an easy lynch. I distinctly remember being asked WHY I HAD A TOWN READ ON CABOOSE and then I distinctly remember from yesterday him (MoI) asking me for an explanation of the Caboose town-read.

So what happened? After I explained it, he decided Caboose was no longer really lynchable, stopped attacking him altogether, and killed Caboose/LMP in an attempt to make his lynching of Sloth easier. He even tried to setup today's lynch with his

Regardless I’ll make you a deal – support the CJ wagon today and I’ll back you on Sloth tomorrow. Sound good?

towards LMP. Then killed him so he would not be committed to Sloth incase a better wagon came up.

I felt Sloth was scum yesterday, but havingfitz is a definite townread right now, and {Muffin - your scum-ass can meta this from Draft Mafia} I've been in situations before where teh replacement is far more town than the initial player, and it's usually because they ARE town.

As for people I don't comment on:

That's ... everyone ... besides the people I am largely suspiciouso f. It's because those people haven't received any scumpoints, and so I will not be justifying my null or barely town read on them.

I must be partners with them right? Yes. Town buddies. Though it won't help very much.

If nothing interesting happens before my next post it will likely be a full game summary of the MoI case. CJ's flip truly changes nothing for me. Sorry.

Wickedestjr · Post Post #549 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 8:07 am

zMuffinMan wrote:
[1: It's a direct misrepresentation of what I said]
, and
[2: it's also extremely hypocritical because it's what you did.]

Considering my rebuttal of your terrible argument against a much earlier post of mine as by referencing a much earlier post of yours, it's actually funny that you're even trying to use this against me.

1:

How is it a misrep? Elaborate, please.

2:

I'm assuming you're talking about me 'waiting so long' to bring up you not having a read on Empking vs. neil. If so...
a.) It wasn't something I had realized you were guilty of until you made a post in which you commented on a point against Empking without giving your read on him.
b.) There is a difference between the point I'm using against you and the point you're using against me. You could easily notice my reasons for believing neil vs. Empking was town vs. town just by reading the thread. Not noticing that you hadn't given your opinion on either of them was something that required an iso read.
c.) My point against you was stronger the later it was brought up.

Also, you still haven't defended against my point.

Regfan wrote:Cjdrum - So you're placing your vote on the lurker?

This question looks odd considering you had Sloth as one of your top three suspects at the time of this post. Can you explain this please?

MoI wrote:Never the less my pressure on you has yielded what I was interested in seeing from you currently.

MoI wrote:I have something I’m keeping my eye on but I want to see more posts from him today.

Explain please.

zMuffinMan wrote:He hasn't flipped scum yet that I've seen.

So why are you using meta against him?