Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I tracked implosion N2 and Bella N3.

NO SILLY VOTES

Amrun, do you think Meransiel-Bella could be our scum team?

[Amrun]

No results on them, I assume.

I think it's an outside chance that they're the scumteam. I think one of them being an actual scum neighbor is more likely.

[Oman]

Bella: Why did you drop to MBL yesterday?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Amrun, please give me your top two scum pairs.

[Amrun]

I did that...

Merensiel, implosion
Merensiel, Bella
Bella, implosion

Bella/implosion doesn't make as much sense.

[Meransiel]

Crap, the more this goes on the more suspicious I am of Implosion...

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think it's an outside chance that they[Bella and Meransiel]'re the scumteam.

Merensiel, implosion
Merensiel, Bella

So it follows that you must think there's a pretty darn decent chance implosion is scum yet you had failed to mention him Today up to this point.

[Amrun]

I am pretty sure I did mention him before.

My issue with implosion is that he LOOKS town, but PoE tells me he might not be.

Nobody really expressed support of his wagon, but I would join it if so.

Both Merensiel and Bella are independently more scummy, so that seemed like a more logical choice.

If we can all agree on implosion, that's fine. He's on 2/3 of my pairing lists so that's logical.

But then tomorrow we'll still have to deal with the neighbors.

People I will lynch today in order of preference:

Merensiel
Implosion
Bella

[Meransiel]

With sadness, people I would lynch today:

Bella
Implosion

[Bella]

Bella: Why did you drop to MBL yesterday?

Most likely lynch when we were at a deadline.

I tracked implosion N2 and Bella N3.

NO SILLY VOTES

Amrun, do you think Meransiel-Bella could be our scum team?

Maybe I'm missing something... but why are we accepting as gospel the fact that there are two scum remaining?

[Amrun]

Fair point. There could be only one.

[Bella]

Two is immensely more likely, but it's never a good sign when people make assumptions like that and use unsubstantiated assumptions as a basis for looking for scum.

[Amrun]

And if that is the case, neither Bella nor implosion is scum. Leaving Merensiel once again.

Bella, who are your suspects?

[Meransiel]

There can't be only 1 scum left.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Tracker is already too powerful for 2 scum (note that tracker's power relies on nightkilling scum:scum ratio) unless maybe it's Oman with his 2 votes in which case we'll mislynch today and discover that there is just 1 scum left Tomorrow by virtue of the game not ending.

[Amrun]

So where does that leave us? Who do you want to lynch, CES? Everyone, same question.

[Meransiel]

Actually if Oman is the sole mafia and we mislynch, we will still lose ze game.

I wanna lynch Implosion. Who is against?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We don't lose in that case. 4 people alive -> 3 to lynch -> townies can lynch Oman; Oman needs to help to get a lynch.

I believe it's Amrun-implosion, so yes, I'm in favour of an implolynch. I still haven't gotten that Amrun message though, which I want to get first.

[Amrun]

I sent a message to everyone. It goes through Shanba, though, so you are now waiting on him..

I am in favor of an implosion lynch. I prefer Merensiel, but implosoin is the next-best bet.i

[Oman]

I would suppport a Bella lynch, after another quick reread to confirm. Bella is just tweaking my scumdar.

[implosion]

Crap, the more this goes on the more suspicious I am of Implosion...

Can you explain this instead of just randomly stating it and then attacking me?

Maybe I'm missing something... but why are we accepting as gospel the fact that there are two scum remaining?

If there's only one left, it doesn't really affect gameplay, it just means that we have a mislynch.

What CES said is also true, if there is a 2-person scumteam, Oman is probably in it. If we mislynch today and the game doesn't end, he's probably scum. If that happens, then we will cross that bridge then. There are no downsides to assuming 2 scum; it's vastly more likely, and simplifies things.

So where does that leave us? Who do you want to lynch, CES? Everyone, same question.

You.

I don't understand why I'm suddenly being attacked by several people. Amrun explained it some, but Meransiel hasn't at all. CES, if you think it's me and Amrun, then can we lynch Amrun?

Bella also needs to give her top lynch candidates. Oman did until he ninja'd me.

[Bella]

I'm waiting to see if Amrun's messages come through before I draw conclusions.

[Meransiel]

@implosion: Pretty logical actually.

Bella gets cleared because town has only one "real" pr, so a pair of townie neighbors makes sence for balance.

That leaves you, Oman and Amrun. Two of you are scum anyway, so I'll ignore Oman for now.

So I have to choose between you and Amrun. And I have her as more town.

[Amrun]

@implosion: Pretty logical actually.

Bella gets cleared because town has only one "real" pr, so a pair of townie neighbors makes sence for balance.

That leaves you, Oman and Amrun. Two of you are scum anyway, so I'll ignore Oman for now.

So I have to choose between you and Amrun. And I have her as more town.

What kind of humongous backtrack is this?

Town has the following:

Vig
Tracker
Double-Voter
Messenger
Probably 1 Neighbor

But we only have one pr and two neighbors can be town? After you revealed on day 1 because balance told you Bella must be scum, supposedly?

Bella-Merensiel just shot up to number one on my possible pairings list.

[Amrun]

So I guess make that "Probably 1 Neighbor" to "Possibly 1 Neighbor"