New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[Pine]

Confirmation bias absolutely

defines

Mastin's play, both Town and scum. When scum he feigns the Townie tunnel vision, hiding behind his own meta to support it.

[Knight of Cydonia]

Mastin is one of the main reasons I lend no credence to meta-tells. 'nuff said.

[quadz08]

The KAZAAM Votecount

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

jmurph3 (0) –
silverbullet999 (0) –
mastin2 (1) – DeityKabuto
nhammen (0) –

LYNCH --->

DeityKabuto (7) – Toon Fighter, mastin2, jmurph3, Pine, nhammen, Surye, Maxous
Pine (0) –
MrZepher (0) -
Surye (0) -
Nobody Special (0) -
Uite (0) -
Toon Fighter (0) –
Maxous (0) –
Knight of Cydonia (0) –

Not Voting (7) – Nobody Special, Knight of Cydonia, MrZepher, silverbullet999, Uite

A lynch has been reached. Modscene will be up soon.

[quadz08]

DeityKabuto has been lynched.

He was a

Mafia Goon.

Night 2 begins now. Actions are due in (expired on 2011-05-26 23:00:00)

[quadz08]

Knight of Cydonia was killed. He was a

Town Cop

.

Surye was killed. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Day 3 Begins

The Dawn of Day Three Votecount

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

jmurph3 (0) –
silverbullet999 (0) –
mastin2 (0) –
nhammen (0) –
Pine (0) –
MrZepher (0) -
Nobody Special (0) -
Uite (0) -
Toon Fighter (0) –
Maxous (0) –

Not Voting (10) – Nobody Special, MrZepher, silverbullet999, Uite, Toon Fighter, mastin2, jmurph3, Pine, nhammen, Maxous

[Pine]

VOTE: Mastin

Daycop with a standard cop in play? I think not.

[Pine]

Oh, I roleblocked Surye last night, thinking he might be scum or our SK. Fat lot of good that seems to have done.

[MrZepher]

UGH. MASTIN. REALLY?

Also Pine, did you claim previously or was that a claim just now?

I need to reread this game ._.

[Pine]

I counter-claimed DK's claim of Roleblocker. That's how he got lynched.

[Knight of Cydonia]

MOTHERFUCKER

[MrZepher]

Okay yeah I seriously need to reread then.
I'll do that before I post again.

[silverbullet999]

so.... i didn't even realize day 2 had begun nor ended... i skimmed it... anddd yeah. i'll catch up... eventually

[Toon Fighter]

Mastin, I want some explanation...

[mastin2]

Alright. So, that was not the way I was hoping things would go. But I meant it when I said we had won this game. And I meant it.

Yes, I was fakeclaiming. I was going to say as much today, because I had a plan. KoC was part of it, though. :/ (Rather, his role.)

But note how I SPECIFICALLY told the protective roles to NOT be on me. There was a good reason for that.

(Pine knows me too well. Remember when he said I could be fakeclaiming to protect a strong gut town-read? That's exactly what I WAS doing.
Then I realized and hatched a plan: if I continued to keep on living, then the scum would know I was faking. Either they figured it out--possible, but honestly not very probable--or they KNEW.)

Now, for the plan.


It relies on me having fakeclaimed, as well as Surye being shot and flipping town or scum.

Specifically, how the scum reacted.

I have consistently failed to die, despite the fact that have been taunting them. Now, with confirmed town alive, that would mean they simply had a better target in mind.

Their KoC kill, however, confirmed that it wasn't because of that. Jmurph was still alive.

So, to me, that meant one thing:

They had to have concluded I was fakeclaiming. (Since I was.) It's possible some players as scum could've figured it out. But in particular, there are two people, only two people, who I can GUARANTEE would've figured it out.

Those to being Silver and Pine.

So. I conclude from this,

One of Silver and Pine is very likely scum

.

More than that. VCA to me suggested one of Surye and Silver to be scum. (I later confirmed this was more than just a VCA suspicion.) Remember that list I posted yesterday? The one with Surye, Uite, Deity, (wraith removed), Zepher, KoC, Maxous, etc.? There was another one besides Wraith I removed: Silver.

What does this all mean?

With Surye having flipped scum, it suggests that Silver is, in fact, scum. PROBABLY with Zepher, though not guaranteed.

My reads:

jmurph3 (0) – Confirmed Town.
silverbullet999 (0) – Very likely scum.
nhammen (0) – Close to confirmed town.
Pine (0) – Town.
MrZepher (0) - Pretty likely buddy to Silver.
Nobody Special (0) - Town.
Uite (0) - Ditto; still possible scum.
Toon Fighter (0) – Town.
Maxous (0) – Possible--but not probable--scum.

So, the lynch order?

Silver, Zepher (unless Silver flips town, in which case, it should be Pine), and if the game is still going after that, probably Uite. But I don't think it will be. We have a doctor and a vig alive. A town roleblocker means the scum might not have one.

So, I really did mean it when I said we couldn't lose. Half the scumteam dead, a vig, a doc, a confirmed-town mason, all alive? That's 3/10 town. Assuming Pine's claim is legitimate, that's 4/10. I, personally, know I'm town, making it 5/10 for me, which is theoretically half the town by itself. Adding in my town-reads (which admittedly probably overlap with the roles ), and I'm getting a majority. With effectively a double-lynch (via our vig) along with good lynches, we've got this game set.

Which is one of the reasons I said I didn't mind if I was lynched: I knew it didn't make one single bit of difference. If I'm lynched, simply replace one of the names I mentioned for a lynch and instead have 'em as a vig.

I'm admittedly a bit incoherent at this moment, but I am perfectly willing to explain.

(My original plan was to have the real cop claim today, since we know there's a doc. Evidence? Jmurph is still alive, despite being a mason [which we now know to be LOVER mason] with SubSith and Thor.
The cop would've likely been safe from roleblocks, and had they NOT been, Pine woulda been lynched, as a "just in case" kind of thing. And coordinate the vig with the cop. Effectively, it would have granted us not one, not two, but THREE lynches in a day--Investigation to clear, vig to shoot unclear, lynch to get rid of more unclear...it was perfect until KoC died. >_<)

I'm going to look over things a bit more, to confirm everything. But for now,

Vote: Silver

.

More on this when I'm a little more coherent and can present the plan in a better manner.

But I do think I have this game won, despite KoC's death being a setback.

[mastin2]

Brief rundown of my reads:
Nhammen is close to confirmed town due to the Amor vote. I haven't double-checked, but when I last checked and read the interaction, it didn't seem like bussing.
Pine was a townread before his claim, and pretty close to confirmed town after it.
NS as town is a little harder to explain, but I'm quite sure of it.

I've already done a brief case on why Toon is town.

Which means--of the ten alive--there are only four people I consider possible scum:

Silver, Zepher, Uite, and Maxous.

Maxous if scum has played extremely well. Uite is null, pretty much. Silver and Zepher are my scum choices.

Between lynching and vigging, these four can be dead in two days.

I've been doing the math, and I'm not seeing how the town can lose this. Even if I'm lynched, that'll still give us a very good chance of still winning the game, by simple process of elimination.

[mastin2]

All that said, I would much prefer the town be four-for-four in our lynches. We're two-for-two right now, so that's why I'm trying to figure out who is MOST likely to be scum--and I believe right now it's Silver.


Sorry. Suffering from a beginning-of-day rush. Happens from time to time.

[MrZepher]

Mastin, I don't get how your VCAs conclude me as scum.
It kind of irks me.

Maxous' hammer bothered me something fierce. It's never beneficial to end town conversation, but I can completely understand why.
Even still. It bothers me.

So have you calculated the math of what would happen if everyone on your scumlist flips town?
(Even I accept the likelihood of at least 1 scum on that list, but I think you'd be relying on that as scum as well.)

DK claimed Surye and Pine to be scum with him and Amor. Amor was obviously going to be on that list, and since Surye has since then flipped town, I wouldn't doubt Pine being town either.
It's in no way a confirmation, but it's a better tell than anything IMO.
NS I think can do with a little benefit of the doubt.
Nhammen is a town read since scum never really give the BoD... not that that's my only reason, but it changed the tone of his posts for me if that makes sense?

Uite is an obvlurker. I think he's the best candidate out of your list, since he'll be least likely to contribute either way.
I still want to think that Silver is town. I'd have to see play outside of the whole sub vs. silver thing. That ridiculousness messed with my reads on both I'm more than positive.

I wouldn't suggest lynching me. If absolutely necessary vig me, but don't end the day with me. Make sense?

I have no idea who the SK could be currently. I would have to finish my re-read.

PREDIT:
I just realized that I'm probably parroting what mastin just said a little bit. I'm not going to bother to change anything right now... way too tired...

[Toon Fighter]

I'm going to assume mastin is town from now on. The lack of a SK kill for the first 2 nights and being on both scum lynches confirms him for me. That also means that I am trusting his arguments on silver's scumminess.

vote: silver

. If mastin has been right so far, I believe he is right today. We have now confirmation that DK's claim was BS, but, as Surye said yesterday, that gives us no information on Pine's alignment. But, DK wasn't a scum RB, so Pine could still be one, bussing DK. He could still be scum

[jmurph3]

Hmmmm...need to reread everything now (as an aside - I had KoC pegged as the cop because of a comment he made shortly after mastin's claim). However, before jumping on the silver wagon, I want to ask mastin this:

You stated of Deity's claim that

Deity's giving us one confirmed scum, likely one buddy, and probably one townie. (If that really was the scumteam this game, well, then, quadz will have to call the game ruined. >_<)

I admit, I am scum. I am scum along with Amor, Surye, and Pine.

Since Surye has now flipped town, does that at all changed your opinion of the presence of a buddy on this list? Do you still think it unlikely that Pine could be the buddy?

Additionally,

(My original plan was to have the real cop claim today, since we know there's a doc. Evidence? Jmurph is still alive, despite being a mason [which we now know to be LOVER mason] with SubSith and Thor.

Are you saying that there's a doc because I was not killed with SubSith and Thor? Because that's not (necessarily) true. Obviously I don't know one way or the other if there's a doc, but I was not a part of the lover masons. I was a very sad and lonely third-wheel mason, thus meaning that only Thor and SubSith would die together, not me.

MrZepher's post irked me. I'm getting a huge scumread off of it, in fact. First he tries to confirm Pine as town based on Deity's list, which I don't think is a good reason to confirm him. Then he decides to go after Uite and not Silver, which is fine, but his reasoning is that he "wants to believes" that Silver is town, and that Uite won't contribute whether or not he's scum. This is just seeming like a big ol' buddying post, meaning that if MrZepher is scum, than at least one of Silver and Pine is scum. And I'm honestly not sure which at this point. Thus, VOTE: MrZepher.

[Pine]

Mastin only panic-walls like this as caught scum. His Town walls are far more organized and don't contradict themselves so much. I mean, how many times can he say that we need to lynch me, then follow it up with calling me Town? Why'd he stick his neck put for Silver and now push him? He's bussing Silver for emergency Town points.

And I was early on both Amor and DK. Mastin is well aware that I don't believe in bussing without a compelling reason

[Maxous]

I will also join the 'going to re-read club'. I skimmed above and Silverbullet is not a cop clear anymore.

Having a look at the two lynches and two near lynches. (basically the significant bandwagons)
Legend:

Blue - town

Red - mafia

Puple - Mise fein

Silver bullet -

Maxous

,

SubzeroSith

, Pine, nhammen ,

Deity Kabuto

,

Surye

,

Knight of Cydonia

, Toon fighter

Subzero Sith

- Mastin2, Pine, Toon Fighter,

Surye,

Deity Kabuto

Amor

-

Thor665

,

Knight of Cydonia

, Mr.Zepher, mastin2, Pine, Toon Fighter, nhammen

Deity Kabuto

- Toon Fighter, mastin 2,

jmurph3

, Pine, nhammen,

Surye

,

Maxous

Initial thoughts here is that Pine and Toon look bad. On all 4 wagons. *must look into all reasoning.
Mastin2 was on 3 and expressed interest in a Silverbullet lynch until he fake claimed - I'll get to you guys on Mastin, i'm just confused about him at this stage
I seen a vote for Mr.Zepher but looking at this puts him in a better light. The only lynch he joined was the Amor one.
nhammen was on 3 of them, crucially however he was'nt on the confirmed town bandwagon. This is looking slightly good for him.
Uite, Silver Bullet and Nobody Special were'nt on any of them. Meh

Also - speculation rambling about the night kill:

Knight of Cydonia was a cop. He never claimed(though he gave a hint Day 1).
KOC unclaimed was still a possible mislynch and was not actively scumhunting, so he was killed solely for having a cop power.
=> The mafia knew he was a cop.
The hint KOC gave came day 1

not

day 2. KOC was then killed night 2 not night 1. The order seems a bit messed up, you take out the cop then the masons. The masons cannot receive a guilty on you.
=> They mafia only discovered KOC was a cop day 2. But he did'nt give a hint.
Basically I suspect the mafia had the means to find out KOC's power night 1. Quite possibly a rolecop, but maybe a tracker or something.
Deity Kabuto flipped a mafia goon, who was not a power role. As DK was also not a strong player he would be considered expendable to some degree, first choice to throw to the wolves if needs be.
This was reflected in Amor's attitude towards him in trying to stall the Silverbullet wagon and change it to a DK wagon.

The mafia would of wanted to protect certain members(including Amor) more than DK. I'm keeping this in mind (might come to nothing but we'll see ^_^)

[mastin2]

His Town walls are far more organized and don't contradict themselves so much.

Quite false. When I say,
"I'm incoherent",
I'm not lying scum. (I did remember to say that, didn't I? Though--honestly--you'd think I wouldn't need to for you to be able to tell. )

If that were the case, then I've drawn the scum PM in every single game I'm in!

When I'm incoherent, I barely make sense to myself.

I mean, how many times can he say that we need to lynch me, then follow it up with calling me Town?

If I wanted you lynched, I'd be voting you. If Silver's town, I think you're scum. If silver's not town, then I think you're town. I believe Silver to be scum over you, and therefore vote Silver. What's the issue?

Why'd he stick his neck put for Silver and now push him?

My town-read lasted on Silver until Surye flipped town last night. Had Surye flipped scum, I would've still thought Silver to be town.

Don't really see the problem, there.

Since Surye has now flipped town, does that at all changed your opinion of the presence of a buddy on this list? Do you still think it unlikely that Pine could be the buddy?

It's like I said. A silver lynch will answer this. If Silver flips town, then Pine's scum, pretty much guaranteed. If Silver flips scum, it's *possible* Pine's scum, but extremely unlikely.

This is just seeming like a big ol' buddying post, meaning that if MrZepher is scum, than at least one of Silver and Pine is scum. And I'm honestly not sure which at this point. Thus, VOTE: MrZepher.

We have a good vig; let them take care of it. Lynch one (preferably Silver), and if they flip town, the vig takes care of the other. A bit of the inverse of the way it's worked (lynched the scum, vig the scummy town), but still works. Zepher can wait until tomorrow.

So have you calculated the math of what would happen if everyone on your scumlist flips town?

If I'm doing the math correctly, if all of them flipped town, we'd have 6/10 dead and 4 alive, 2 of them being scum, town loss. This is following the pattern of lynch one, vig another, scum kill someone, lynch one, vig another, scum kill someone, they're all dead in two days, town's down to four alive. So, unless I'm wrong about every single one of my scumreads, it will work.

And I don't think I am.

I maintain Maxous is likely town, since his speculation doesn't sound like it'd come from scum.

Also, I haven't had an ounce of sleep in over 24 hours, so it'd probably be best for me to avoid posting too much. My post already feels incoherent.

[Pine]

How did all of you catch KoC as Cop? I completely missed it, probably because I'm not fishing.

VCA is a bullshit method of scumhunting. It takes into account only some of the objective facts, and none of the subjective factors.

Why are you not lynching Mastin? He fakeclaimed Cop, causing the real cop to say something that got him killed, and saved someone from being lynched that almost half the thread wanted dead.

This is a gambit from Mastin. A scum gambit. And you people are over-thinking it.

PE: Mastin, why am I scum if Silver flips Town? You've said that a few times now, but have not adequately explained it. Flail more, scum.

[jmurph3]

@Pine:

I really, really don't like this. Will give benefit of the doubt for now, though. Any other cops out there would do well to check mastin out, if they exist.

Also, why are you so convinced that mastin is scum? Yes he fakeclaimed - that in and of itself does not make him scum. Additionally, you note that VCA is a bad way to scumhunt...however, Mastin has helped to bring down two of the scum members (one of whom was godfather, if you recall). In fact, that in and of itself should be enough to almost fully confirm Mastin. With the toon lynch as strong as it was, why would mastin-as-scum be arguing so hard for the lynch to be against Amor? Even the town-cred won from lynching scum wouldn't, IMO, be enough to merit lynching the most powerful scum PR in this game. It just doesn't make sense.

[Pine]

Mastin has a history and a meta of bussing his scumbuddies as soon as he can feasibly make it happen, just to evoke that exact reaction from Town.

However, that quote from KoC is more evidence in Mastin's favor than your entire argument. It suggests that KoC likely investigated Mastin on Night 1, and as he didn't bring Mastin down on D2, and the GF is accounted for, Mastin is probably clean.

UNVOTE: Mastin