Fall of the Matrix: Game Over!

[MrBuddyLee]

Im looking for another suspect within the voting patterns, but I cant find the trifecta, someone who jumped on Vezo, Furc and Surye bandwagons. Until something obvious like that comes up, im sheeping Amrun.

Vote: Toon Fighter

Please give your analysis of ToonFighter's play.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yosarian, I don't particularly agree that pushing Surye early is a scum tell, but I wouldn't've had a problem with you going "He pushed Surye early. Vote: Kison" (although I do question whether it is significant enough to merit a vote.) My problem lies with your appeal to a seductive form of fallacious reasoning.

[Kison]

unvote: Toon Fighter
Vote: Kison

I had mentioned in the beginning that I wanted to vote for Kison. I tried looking through the vote counts, but couldnt find the one that I recalled on him going after Vezok initially. Now I see that there are vote count errors and that

he was promoting the wagon without actually voting on it.

Bravo Kison, thats one way to hide from vote count analysis, especially in a large game.

vezokpiraka looks fine so far. His claim was dumb but I am failing to see the scum motive behind his behavior.

Not a fan of the vezokpiraka wagon. Declaring him the only acceptable lynch for the day as a result of his vanilla claim means you view scumhunting with great pessimism. Surye, who is backing Yosarian2's statistical analysis while simultaneously suggesting we run up someone else during the day is sketchy.

My support of that wagon is amazingly crafty in its wording.

[Internet Stranger]

Im looking for another suspect within the voting patterns, but I cant find the trifecta, someone who jumped on Vezo, Furc and Surye bandwagons. Until something obvious like that comes up, im sheeping Amrun.

Vote: Toon Fighter

Please give your analysis of ToonFighter's play.

Get of my ass Lee, I dont give a shit about Toon Fighter right now.

[Internet Stranger]

unvote: Toon Fighter
Vote: Kison

I had mentioned in the beginning that I wanted to vote for Kison. I tried looking through the vote counts, but couldnt find the one that I recalled on him going after Vezok initially. Now I see that there are vote count errors and that

he was promoting the wagon without actually voting on it.

Bravo Kison, thats one way to hide from vote count analysis, especially in a large game.

vezokpiraka looks fine so far. His claim was dumb but I am failing to see the scum motive behind his behavior.

Not a fan of the vezokpiraka wagon. Declaring him the only acceptable lynch for the day as a result of his vanilla claim means you view scumhunting with great pessimism. Surye, who is backing Yosarian2's statistical analysis while simultaneously suggesting we run up someone else during the day is sketchy.

My support of that wagon is amazingly crafty in its wording.

Oh, I misread what Zindara said. Damn.
I initially suspected Kison because of off-voting early on. But since Surye didnt flip scum, Kison could still be a suspect, but obviously he saw the same things I did at the time. I will lay off him, for now.

Unvote: Kison

[MrBuddyLee]

Get of my ass Lee, I dont give a shit about Toon Fighter right now.

You cast the ToonFighter vote 24 hours ago. Forgive me for digging into your irrelevant, distant past.

Just keeping my eye on votes cast for crappy reasons. "Sheeping Amrun" was one of them--it looked about as manufactured as could be. When you place a vote, it's generally an attempt to lynch. In this case, it doesn't appear to have been an intent to lynch, because you abandoned it like a hot potato, so I'm curious to know why you placed it in the first place.

@ToonFighter

, what do you think of Furcolow? Your confidence in his wagon seems to have disappeared:

that only reinforces my confidence on Furc's wagon

[Internet Stranger]

Get of my ass Lee, I dont give a shit about Toon Fighter right now.

You cast the ToonFighter vote 24 hours ago. Forgive me for digging into your irrelevant, distant past.

Just keeping my eye on votes cast for crappy reasons. "Sheeping Amrun" was one of them--it looked about as manufactured as could be. When you place a vote, it's generally an attempt to lynch. In this case, it doesn't appear to have been an intent to lynch, because you abandoned it like a hot potato, so I'm curious to know why you placed it in the first place.

Because I do whatever the hell I want, thats why. My scumhunting methods are for me and me alone.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok, that's fine. So you think ToonFighter is town.

What do you think of Furcolow? Yesterday, you said that the Furcwagon was full of opportunistic scum. ToonFighter was #3 on that Furcwagon. Something's not adding up about your play right now, or at least it's not matching your rhetoric from yesterday.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote Count #14:

Throughout human history, we have been dependent on machines to survive. Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony. - Morpheus

Toon Fighter (3) - (DeathNote, LlamaFluff, Cogito Ergo Sum)
ReaperCharlie (3) - (BrianMcQueso, SensFan, Porochaz)

Albert B. Rampage (2) - (Zindaras, Medicated Lain)
Kublai Khan (1) - (Toon Fighter)
GummyBear (1) - (AGar)
Porochaz (1) - (MrBuddyLee)
Kison (1) - (Yosarian2)
HezLucky (1) - (Furcolow)

With 21 alive, it takes 12 to lynch.

GummyBear and Primate have been prodded.

[Yosarian2]

Bah; screwed up the quote tags in a way to make the post confusing. Mod, feel free to deleate the previous post, I'll fix it here.

Fixed.

He didn't really push it. I think IS and I were the only ones who did active pushing.

If Kison didn't push the Suyve wagon, then he didn't really do anything at all. Which is even scummier.

Still, like I said, the vote count differentials change a lot. Hez and Primate certainly deserve your analysis now, considering that they were on earlier.

I did take a good look at both of them, and neither one of them looks scummy to me. I didn't pick out Kison and CES by accident, and it didn't have anything to do with the order they were listed in in that vote count I quoted either; that was just for reference, so I would know which players to do ISO reads on.

This is nonsense. The Furcolow wagon was consistently at 7 votes throughout the game. Hence, you ignore several people who jumped on the wagon before it was even the largest wagon (and hence weren't in the "no no lynch group").

I don't actually know Furcolow's alignment yet. When I do find that out, I'll be able to analyze what it means if people jumped on or jumped off his wagon at various points. Without knowing that, I'm not sure how much we info we can get out of that wagon.

More importantly,

given the rules of the game we were never in danger of a no lynch

. A 7 player wagon would be enough, and no idiot would ever go for a late unvote if it caused a no lynch. And even if you feel that this danger was there, it's basically gone at vote 8. So votes 9 through 13 are completely useless wagon-hopping.

Interesting. I didn't realize that; I guess I'm just so used to the "no majority=no lynch" rule these days I didn't bother to check.

There are likely to be scum on both the Vezok and Furry wagons, but you choose to ignore them. When both Furry and Surye had 7 votes, some players made a choice to vote Surye over Furcolow. But, apparently, these players were only ensuring we wouldn't get a no lynch. They apparently didn't have a choice.

Sure, there could have been scum on either of the other two major wagons or on none of them. I never said ALL the scum were on the Suyve wagon. I just said that I think that at least some of them were.

While it's statistically more likely that a successful wagon has scum on it, it is not statistically more likely that a successful wagon has scum in its first 5-7 voters, compared to other 7-vote wagons. What you're suggesting is that scum already know which wagon is going to be successful.That's just silly.

No, it is more likely. You seem to be assuming that which wagons fail or succeed happens at random, which is simply untrue. If the scum voting block backs a certain wagon at an early stage, that wagon is MUCH MORE likely to GAIN momentum and go to a lynch. If there's a 4 or 5 member scum voting block, and 2 or 3 of them join a wagon early on, then that suddenly doubles the size of what would have been a small wagon, and once momentum like that starts, other people are likely to join it.

Why does person A get lynched on day 1 instead of person B, when the evidence all around either for or against both of them are minimal? Quite often, person A gets lynched instead of person B BECAUSE THE SCUM DECIDE TO LYNCH HIM, and they are able to tilt the balance of the scale that way. You're looking at it all backwards; it's not that scum KNOW what wagon is going to be successful, it's that the wagon the scum supports is much more likely to BECOME successful, because the scum are supporting it.

No, Yossy, what matters are

arguments

. I find the Vezok-wagon to be a

lot

scummier than the Surye-wagon, simply because it's filled with opportunistic players.

If you want to take apart the Vezok wagon and figure out who on that wagon looks scummy, please do. It's probably a good idea. I actually think that most of the people on the Vezok wagon look pretty town, with the exception of Medicated Lain for the reasons I discussed yesterday. But if you think that most of the scum were on the Vezok wagon, then please, make a case on someone.

It's not an either-or thing, either. If we're dealing with one mafia group and a SK, then there were probably 2 or 3 scum on the Surye wagon, and between 1 and 3 scum off the Surye wagon. If we're dealing with two mafia groups, then...i donno.

Anyway, I just used that as a jumping off point to look at some players, Zindy. Take a look at Kison and CES yourself, and tell me what you think about their play so far this game.

With the right jumping off point and the right assumptions, you can get whatever results you want. I'm going to repeat my mantra here: arguments. You ignore the vezok wagon. Why? Because you feel your own arguments were good? That doesn't mean that everyone else is clear. What I hugely dislike about this is that you're limiting your scumhunting to one very small group for no good reason, with no actual argument. And then, in that group, you don't even really look at the arguments, you just say that a couple of them aren't scum and thus one of the other ones is.

I don't know what makes you think I didn't look at the arguments. Why do you think I picked Kison and CES over people like HezLucky and Primate? The arguments they were using, and the way they approached the wagon, was obviously a big part of that.

That's not scumhunting. What I dislike even more is that you're casually ignoring the other town wagon, the one you just happened to be on.

(shrug) I think the Vez wagon was basiclaly town driven. Most of the people pushing the Vez wagon look town to me. I wouldn't be surprised if an oppurtinistc scum latched on to it at some point, just to be able to put his vote somewhere, but there's no reason for the scum to push it.

IMHO, the scum wouldn't have really WANTED to wagon Vez yesterday. The scum need to find town power roles, so the scum would have probably been pushing other wagons to try to get claims from more people instead. If you're a scum, lynching Vez yesterday wouldn't have been a bad outcome, and you might park your vote there so as to be seen doing something, but it's not what you really want to see happen. Better off just leaving him and letting him get vigged or, better yet, lynched later.

As far as Kison and Cessy go: CES is as CES does. To be honest, I hate reading him and generally just wait until he dies or claims. He is like IS, except without the posts that read as town to me. Generally, I like IS's play so far better than his, but it's going to take actual convincing for me to vote him. I'm not as happy with Kison. He's been scummy, overall. Little content, a bit of a sheep on Surye. Would have to do an actual reread of his posts, which I don't have time for right now, to pin it down better.

I'm probably a little more paranoid about CES right now then usual, considering he just completly fooled me in the Mafia with the Hydras game, but I'm not getting the happy townie-CES vibes from his play day 1 I usually get. I don't care if he makes short posts and all that meta stuff, but the way he voted, and the timing, is all around iffy. I guess I kind of like his "Furcolow self voting is a town tell" argument (I don't agree with it, but it feels like something town-CES might think), but it's weird the way he attacked me for not voting Furcolow at the same time he was getting off the Furcolow wagon. His "consistency" justification is really weak; what happened in the Furcolow wagon was completely different from what Vez did at the start of the day, he claimed to pressure instead of claiming at the start of day 1, and we had other ways to read him by that point. Especially if CES thought he got a town tell from Furcolow, I think it's bizarre he'd expect me to join the wagon just because of the vanilla claim.

As for Kison, it won't take you long to re-read his posts. Other then the Surye FOS followed by the Surye vote, he really didn't do anything other the pressure one lurker a bit, and his reasons for his Surye stuff were pretty weak. He just looks like scum to me.

Rather then spend all this time arguing with my scumhunting methods, Zindy, I think it'd be much more useful for you to decide if you agree with my suspects or not and why, and then we can go from there.

[Zindaras]

This is nonsense. The Furcolow wagon was consistently at 7 votes throughout the game. Hence, you ignore several people who jumped on the wagon before it was even the largest wagon (and hence weren't in the "no no lynch group").

I don't actually know Furcolow's alignment yet. When I do find that out, I'll be able to analyze what it means if people jumped on or jumped off his wagon at various points. Without knowing that, I'm not sure how much we info we can get out of that wagon.

My point here is not that you need to look at the people on the Furcolow wagon (though I personally think wagon analysis can easily be done before someone is lynched, but meh, that's not the point). My point is that, when we were on 7 votes for both players, guys like Hez and AGar jumped on the Surye wagon saying it was to ensure a no lynch. However, besides the fact that we were never in danger of an actual no lynch given the rules, they had two wagons available to them at the time. Yet they chose the Surye wagon over the Furc wagon. As far as the no lynch rule goes, Surye, Brian and I all mentioned it at the end of yesterday.

Example: Players A and B are both at L-1 one hour pre-deadline. Player C comes in and votes Player A "to ensure a no lynch doesn't happen". However, he could just as easily have voted Player B. Hence, he had a choice. The players who wanted to ensure a no lynch could also have jumped on the Furc-wagon. Hence, even beyond the whole rules of the game thing, their decision was not one of ensuring a lynch.

While it's statistically more likely that a successful wagon has scum on it, it is not statistically more likely that a successful wagon has scum in its first 5-7 voters, compared to other 7-vote wagons. What you're suggesting is that scum already know which wagon is going to be successful.That's just silly.

No, it is more likely. You seem to be assuming that which wagons fail or succeed happens at random, which is simply untrue. If the scum voting block backs a certain wagon at an early stage, that wagon is MUCH MORE likely to GAIN momentum and go to a lynch. If there's a 4 or 5 member scum voting block, and 2 or 3 of them join a wagon early on, then that suddenly doubles the size of what would have been a small wagon, and once momentum like that starts, other people are likely to join it.

Sure, but momentum is a matter of time as well. You can hardly argue that the Surye wagon had any serious momentum throughout most of the day. I'm pretty sure I actually remember someone telling me to get off it because the lynch wasn't going to happen. The Vezok and Furry wagons were far more typical in that respect. Also, I dislike the way you seem to put scum in the role of leaders and town in the role of sheep. If a couple of townies start a wagon, then scum is far more likely to give it their blessing if it's on town, so we get the same thing. It doesn't actually say anything.

Why does person A get lynched on day 1 instead of person B, when the evidence all around either for or against both of them are minimal? Quite often, person A gets lynched instead of person B BECAUSE THE SCUM DECIDE TO LYNCH HIM, and they are able to tilt the balance of the scale that way. You're looking at it all backwards; it's not that scum KNOW what wagon is going to be successful, it's that the wagon the scum supports is much more likely to BECOME successful, because the scum are supporting it.

Let's assume for a moment here that Surye's wagon is scum-led and that all the people hopping on at the last moment were townies. Then, by reasoning, Furcolow's wagon must be scum-led as well. After all, these last six townies could have either voted Furcolow or Surye, both legit wagons. The people who tilted the scales are in this case not the early voters, but the late voters. Actually, that's not completely right either. All the people on the Surye-wagon helped tilt the scales together.

Sure, wagons are more likely to be successful when scum gives it their blessing, especially on day one, but town can always push through if they need to. Hence the significant percentage of scum lynches on Day 1.

No, Yossy, what matters are

arguments

. I find the Vezok-wagon to be a

lot

scummier than the Surye-wagon, simply because it's filled with opportunistic players.

If you want to take apart the Vezok wagon and figure out who on that wagon looks scummy, please do. It's probably a good idea. I actually think that most of the people on the Vezok wagon look pretty town, with the exception of Medicated Lain for the reasons I discussed yesterday. But if you think that most of the scum were on the Vezok wagon, then please, make a case on someone.

It's not an either-or thing, either. If we're dealing with one mafia group and a SK, then there were probably 2 or 3 scum on the Surye wagon, and between 1 and 3 scum off the Surye wagon. If we're dealing with two mafia groups, then...i donno.

I made some notes about the Vezok wagon in my main recap post yesterday. I obviously felt Surye was scummy for his vote. Albert is my current top suspect, and he was also on the wagon. I'm iffy on most of the others on the wagon, except Lainy, whom I trust.

Anyway, I just used that as a jumping off point to look at some players, Zindy. Take a look at Kison and CES yourself, and tell me what you think about their play so far this game.

With the right jumping off point and the right assumptions, you can get whatever results you want. I'm going to repeat my mantra here: arguments. You ignore the vezok wagon. Why? Because you feel your own arguments were good? That doesn't mean that everyone else is clear. What I hugely dislike about this is that you're limiting your scumhunting to one very small group for no good reason, with no actual argument. And then, in that group, you don't even really look at the arguments, you just say that a couple of them aren't scum and thus one of the other ones is.

I don't know what makes you think I didn't look at the arguments. Why do you think I picked Kison and CES over people like HezLucky and Primate? The arguments they were using, and the way they approached the wagon, was obviously a big part of that.[/quote]

Well, if that's the case, that certainly changes something. I personally totally agree with Cessy on this:

Yosarian, I don't particularly agree that pushing Surye early is a scum tell, but I wouldn't've had a problem with you going "He pushed Surye early. Vote: Kison" (although I do question whether it is significant enough to merit a vote.) My problem lies with your appeal to a seductive form of fallacious reasoning.

Your post strongly suggests that you assumed that there had to be scum leading the wagon and then arrived at Kison through a process of elimination. Like Cessy, I would've been totally okay with "He pushed Surye early, Vote: Kison". However, what it looked like to me was that you limited your scumpool for no really good reason, then arrived at Kison through a process of elimination rather than simply finding him scummy to begin with.

That's not scumhunting. What I dislike even more is that you're casually ignoring the other town wagon, the one you just happened to be on.

(shrug) I think the Vez wagon was basiclaly town driven. Most of the people pushing the Vez wagon look town to me. I wouldn't be surprised if an oppurtinistc scum latched on to it at some point, just to be able to put his vote somewhere, but there's no reason for the scum to push it.

IMHO, the scum wouldn't have really WANTED to wagon Vez yesterday. The scum need to find town power roles, so the scum would have probably been pushing other wagons to try to get claims from more people instead. If you're a scum, lynching Vez yesterday wouldn't have been a bad outcome, and you might park your vote there so as to be seen doing something, but it's not what you really want to see happen. Better off just leaving him and letting him get vigged or, better yet, lynched later.

Cophunting is a dangerous business when there's still a Doc afoot. Obviously, now it's very much to the advantage of scum if they get the Cop to claim, but that's because she's already dead. If I were scum, I would be pretty happy with a Vez lynch D1, especially because that kind of player has the tendency to get confirmed with lots of people thinking he's town. There's a reason the Vez lynch completely died over the course of the day. Vez wasn't going to get lynched for a long time.

But, anyway, I always take arguments first. There were people voting Vezok for "good" reasons and people voting for bad reasons.

As far as Kison and Cessy go: CES is as CES does. To be honest, I hate reading him and generally just wait until he dies or claims. He is like IS, except without the posts that read as town to me. Generally, I like IS's play so far better than his, but it's going to take actual convincing for me to vote him. I'm not as happy with Kison. He's been scummy, overall. Little content, a bit of a sheep on Surye. Would have to do an actual reread of his posts, which I don't have time for right now, to pin it down better.

I'm probably a little more paranoid about CES right now then usual, considering he just completly fooled me in the Mafia with the Hydras game, but I'm not getting the happy townie-CES vibes from his play day 1 I normally get. I don't care if he makes short posts and all that meta stuff, but the way he voted, and the timing, is all around iffy. I guess I kind of like his "Furcolow self voting is a town tell" argument (I don't agree with it, but it feels like something town-CES might think), but it's weird the way he attacked me for not voting Furcolow at the same time he was getting off the Furcolow wagon. His "consistency" justification is really weak; what happened in the Furcolow wagon was completly different from what Vez did at the start of the day. Especally if he thought he got a town tell from Furcolow, I think it's bizzare he'd expect me to join the wagon just because of the vanilla claim.

You were very aggressive on the whole vanilla thing early on. I think making you comment on another vanilla claim is good Town behaviour. In that case, he didn't want you to vote Furry, he just wanted to see how you'd react to the second vanilla claim. I see it as a Town move.

As for Kison, it won't take you long to re-read his posts. Other then the Surye FOS followed by the Surye vote, he really didn't do anything other the pressure one lurker a bit, and his reasons for his Surye stuff were pretty weak. He just looks like scum to me.

Rather then spend all this time arguing with my scumhunting methods, Zindy, I think it'd be much more useful for you to decide if you agree with my suspects or not and why, and then we can go from there.

What I most disliked about your original post was that you so explicitly reduced the subset of players you were looking at. This troubles me. For example, while I agree with you that Kison is the scummiest person who jumped early on the Surye wagon, I do not think he is the scummiest player overall. That honour goes to Albert, for reasons I shall doublepost for.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why does person A get lynched on day 1 instead of person B, when the evidence all around either for or against both of them are minimal? Quite often, person A gets lynched instead of person B BECAUSE THE SCUM DECIDE TO LYNCH HIM, and they are able to tilt the balance of the scale that way. You're looking at it all backwards; it's not that scum KNOW what wagon is going to be successful, it's that the wagon the scum supports is much more likely to BECOME successful, because the scum are supporting it.

Accepting for a moment your premise that a scum voting block exists, I'm not seeing anything here that would point to early voters specifically being more likely to be scum. Wouldn't scum voting blocks prefer lynches on non-buddies to be pushed by townies?

I'm probably a little more paranoid about CES right now then usual, considering he just completly fooled me in the Mafia with the Hydras game, but I'm not getting the happy townie-CES vibes from his play day 1 I normally get. I don't care if he makes short posts and all that meta stuff, but the way he voted, and the timing, is all around iffy. I guess I kind of like his "Furcolow self voting is a town tell" argument (I don't agree with it, but it feels like something town-CES might think), but it's weird the way he attacked me for not voting Furcolow at the same time he was getting off the Furcolow wagon. His "consistency" justification is really weak; what happened in the Furcolow wagon was completly different from what Vez did at the start of the day. Especally if he thought he got a town tell from Furcolow, I think it's bizzare he'd expect me to join the wagon just because of the vanilla claim

"normally"? We've played 2 games since my return and I've only been town in one of them. I didn't attack you for not voting Furcolow, I attacked you for having a radically different opinion on vez' and Frank's claim. Frank doesn't have to be scum for that to be scummy.

P.S. that's not the town tell.

[Zindaras]

From yesterday:

Albert is my main second suspect. I'm sorry, but there's just no excuse for him getting away with this crap. To be honest, if it weren't so close to deadline and Surye wasn't so close to getting lynched and Albert so far away, I'd probably switch. He's been all over the place. He interacts normally with Vezok until his wincon thing, after which Albert attacks him and then retroactively adopts the percentage argument after the wincon argument is found to be unconvincing by others. After that, he moves his reasoning into policy lynch territory. There's bad blanket statements. There's leading the cop. He moves Furcolow from an easy lynch target to a must-die within the course of a few posts. He moves back to Vezok. He then moves to a really bad vote on me. He moves to an even worse vote (without doubt the worst vote in the entire game so far) on Lain for a retarded reason at a point where it might actually put her in harm's way. And, finally, he moves to a nonsensical GummyBear vote. All the policy lynch arguments, all the self-voting, all the percentage-play, everything is forgotten the moment he gets to his next target. Perennial scummy play in my book.

Now with quotes to back it up. Read him in isolation. His first few posts are some banter, a question about a previous game to Vezok. Then, this:

My win condition says I win if all the threats to the town are dead.

That's not what mine says.

Vote: Vezok

A day later, after the whole win-con thing kind of died down and everybody saw how stupid it was, Albert suddenly changes his mind about why Vezok should be lynched. Note that the percentage debate was ongoing for a while now and Albert had stayed off the Vezok wagon before:

I know but one thing, and that's that vezok isn't a town power role, and that's enough for me to rip his flailing body apart today. This doesn't stop me from scumhunting different faction scum like Internet Stranger.

Also note the mention of "different faction scum". That's because his previous post contained a semi-Freudian slip:

My win condition says I win if all the threats to the town are dead.

That's not what mine says.

Vote: Vezok

Really? Maybe it's just me, but I don't have my role PM word-for-word memorized. There's scum slips, and then there's paraphrasing.

To the people voting for Vezok for *this* reason: do you legitimately think this is a scum slip?

I definitely do. If he is townie, I want his clan lynched right after him. This means Internet Stranger, and who else is defending vezok for easy town points?

Suggests knowing that Vezok is town.

LlamaFluff makes a point but I like to policy lynch players for bad decisions even if it costs me a day. See my history with zwet or Mastin, for example.

Albert starts by voting Vezok for the win-con "slip-up". He then switches to a statistics argument. Now he switches to pure policy lynch. Grasping at straws much?

Only an idiot of a cop would ever investigate vezok

Cop-lead.

You got it wrong boy. Furcolow

is

the easy target scum are voting for.

Unvote, vote Furcolow

I hate self-voters

These two posts are enough on their own.

Switches back to Vezok, then...

Zindaras seems to be trying hard to be useful without actually being useful - a common scum tactic.

I agree.

Unvote, vote Zindaras

I am ignoring vezok until there is enough support to lynch him and that's that.

Hate to be sounding OMGUSsy, but I think this is a really crappy vote.

Unvote, vote Medicated Lain

Pressure vote to change avatar

This is

a fourth vote on Medicated Lain, four days before deadline

. Furry was at 6 and Surye at 5, so Lainy was a very much viable lynch target.

Unvote, vote GummyBear

Reasonless vote.

That post is awesome KK LOL

I have experience with Surye being strung up as scum for bad plans like this, only for him to turn out town. And he tries harder than either vezok or furcolow. So yes, I like Surye better.

Defense of Surye (he does this multiple times). Yet he doesn't actually actively try to get another wagon going.

[Zindaras]

So, yeah, sorry for flooding the thread with quotes. It's just that people need to read Albert and see just how ridiculously scummy he is.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In that case, he didn't want you to vote Furry, he just wanted to see how you'd react to the second vanilla claim.

I totally did want him to vote Furry at the time, just fyi.

[Yosarian2]

What I most disliked about your original post was that you so explicitly reduced the subset of players you were looking at. This troubles me.

I'm not sure why that troubles you. There's a lot of people in this game, it's really easy for scum to fly under the radar for days. The best way to prevent that is to try look at the game from a different point of view then the way everyone else is, to look at specific subsets of people and try to figure out where the scum are, to do different kinds of analysis and scumhunting then what everyone else happens to be doing. Focusing in on a certain subset that's almost certain to contain some scum and some town, and then doing process of elimination, is a good way to find a scum.

I don't have to find all the scum today; I'm perfectly happy just finding and lynching one scum today.

My point here is not that you need to look at the people on the Furcolow wagon (though I personally think wagon analysis can easily be done before someone is lynched, but meh, that's not the point). My point is that, when we were on 7 votes for both players, guys like Hez and AGar jumped on the Surye wagon saying it was to ensure a no lynch.

Well, of course I took a close look at those two guys, and I don't think either one of them is especally scummy. I get a good vibe from Hez's scum analysis points posts he was doing all day yesterday; not the format, so much, but I like his conclusions and the way he came to them.

And I think Agar is likely town; the hardcore meta defense of Vez based on previous play with him is something I'd expect to see from a townie. His vote for Surye was a part of that over the top defense of Vez, and I don't have a problem with it.

I wouldn't call either one a strong town read, exactly, but they're looking more townish then, say, Kison is.

Again, I get the feeling here that you're totally misunderstanding what I'm trying to do. I'm not picking names out of a hat here.

Let's assume for a moment here that Surye's wagon is scum-led and that all the people hopping on at the last moment were townies. Then, by reasoning, Furcolow's wagon must be scum-led as well. After all, these last six townies could have either voted Furcolow or Surye, both legit wagons. The people who tilted the scales are in this case not the early voters, but the late voters. Actually, that's not completely right either. All the people on the Surye-wagon helped tilt the scales together.

Honestly, my hunch is that all 3 wagons yesterday were on pro-town people, so that's not surprising. Especally if scum are hunting for power roles, it wouldn't surprise me at all if scum bandwagoned Furcolow to a claim and then went on to another wagon once he claimed vanilla. Who are you saying switched at a late date that you think looks scummy? Can you be a little more specific?

Cophunting is a dangerous business when there's still a Doc afoot. Obviously, now it's very much to the advantage of scum if they get the Cop to claim, but that's because she's already dead.

(shrug) Even if you're assuming a game with a cop and a doc, if you wagon random people to a claim, you're not just as likely to out the doc as the cop, and every vanilla role you out increases your odds of killing either the cop or the doc. Either way, scum are going to want to wagon unclaimed people whenever they can.

Vez wasn't going to get lynched for a long time.

Eh. He most likely got vigged, though, and fairly predictably so IMHO.

For example, while I agree with you that Kison is the scummiest person who jumped early on the Surye wagon, I do not think he is the scummiest player overall. That honour goes to Albert, for reasons I shall doublepost for.

I don't really agree with you about Albert. The very aggressive "lynch vanilla claimers, lynch self voters, lynch people who make horrible anti-town plays, I don't even care what alignment they are they just have to die" stuff he was doing seems like something more likely to come from a pissed off townie then from a scum who was worried about long term survival.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok, in middle of a wierd V/LA I didnt expect, should be all better by tomorrow.

Because enough people have chimed in, I got a Cult Recruiter result on Kison. So yeah...

@Zind - Can I ask you not to call Furcolow Furry? I used that as an alt account for over a year, so you calling him that really confuses me.

[Medicated Lain]

I don't really agree with you about Albert. The very aggressive "lynch vanilla claimers, lynch self voters, lynch people who make horrible anti-town plays, I don't even care what alignment they are they just have to die" stuff he was doing seems like something more likely to come from a pissed off townie then from a scum who was worried about long term survival.

You're twisting things around. You say I made anti town plays, but that's *your* opinion, *not* Albert's.

I like ML, I dislike the avatar.

He voted for me, putting me under the pressure of lynch, yet saying that he didn't find me scummy.

How is this not the scummiest thing ever? A few days before deadline, a serious threat, and trying to play it off on a senseless idea about avatars.

I hear you all talking about looking at the wagons for scum. I certainly know it is good to look at the wagons for hints of things. While I stated in my last post that I found AGAR suspicious for being on the Surye wagon, the main reasoning is, I don't understand why he was there, and I don't understand why he was looking in the places he was looking, before there, either. Since Vez has turned up not scum, I'm thinking a little bit less that he may be scum, but the point is, as much as we argue about chances of scum being on wagons, the less we focus on the actual information that the wagons are giving us.

Day one ended with:
13 people on Surye, who we know was innocent.
8 people on Fur, who we don't know about.
4 people in other places.

You guys are looking at 21 people in the game.... OF COURSE THERE IS SCUM. We probably have a total of more than 4 anti town players in the game, it seems pretty much a given that that is true. However, given the fact that town has a tendency to look specifically at bandwagons, doesn't it make just as much sense that scum would try to avoid being a part of that? I've given you some amazing reasoning behind Albert's plays. He was early on all about lynching Vez, and he was very seriously just trying to get it over and done with. We know now that Vez is town. No matter how much he said he hates playing with Vez as a reasoning, should we allow that to justify trying to end day one without trying to focus any information elsewhere?

Bandwagons are probably a much better tool later on, when we can actually identify some scum to place names with, look at trends between players with scum involved. In the meantime, shouldn't general voting patterns be much more important than the bandwagons themselves? I certainly think in general the Surye wagon looks like it's filled with more scum than the Furc one. But maybe that's also because more people were on it in general, so the probability that scum is there, is higher than it is on the Furc wagon in general.

[Yosarian2]

I don't really agree with you about Albert. The very aggressive "lynch vanilla claimers, lynch self voters, lynch people who make horrible anti-town plays, I don't even care what alignment they are they just have to die" stuff he was doing seems like something more likely to come from a pissed off townie then from a scum who was worried about long term survival.

You're twisting things around. You say I made anti town plays, but that's *your* opinion, *not* Albert's.

I was not talking about his vote for you. I'm talking about his vote for Vez and his vote for Furcolow, those are the two who did anti-town actions.

I like ML, I dislike the avatar.

He voted for me, putting me under the pressure of lynch, yet saying that he didn't find me scummy.

How is this not the scummiest thing ever? A few days before deadline, a serious threat, and trying to play it off on a senseless idea about avatars.

Meh. I can understand why you'd think that was scummy. I'd be inclined to put it up to Albert's twisted sense of humor and his willing to take all kinds of crazy risks when town to get reactions. He normally will jump on bandwagons just to see what happens as town. I'd suspect he'd tend to be a little more careful as scum, but I'm not sure I have a good idea of what his scum meta is.

Anyway, I'm not especially interested in doing a detailed defense of Albert here. He doesn't have much of a wagon on him, and he can take care of himself. I was just responding to Zindy's post with my own thoughts.

However, given the fact that town has a tendency to look specifically at bandwagons, doesn't it make just as much sense that scum would try to avoid being a part of that?

Sure, that can be true. So who do you think is scum who was avoiding bandwagons? I assume you're not talking about Albert here, since he was pretty bandwagon happy, often for fairly weak to nonexistent reasons.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Yeah I mean I don't think anyone is going to take either ML or Zindaras seriously.

[Albert B. Rampage]

"bla bla blah his defense of Surye"

Surye was town idiots. I defended town. You OTOH pushed a bad bandwagon.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I suggest to ML and Zindaras to build a case on someone else in case the wagon on my unsurprisingly dies of loneliness...

[MrBuddyLee]

Quick question, in general. How many people have we had stridently defending people as town? I can recall Llama, IS, AGar, Albert. Who else?

[Kison]

Because enough people have chimed in, I got a Cult Recruiter result on Kison. So yeah...

Awesome. Any of you fuckers want to claim having sent this in?

Kison - What happened between post 530 & 543 (both Page 22) that caused you to finally change your FOS of Surye into a vote?

My vote at the time was on Bamboomancer, who was no longer active, and Surye had (in his signature) that he was V/LA over the weekend, yet hadn't posted by Tuesday.

[DeathNote]

I like Zindaras' point about the Furcow wagon. Why did the people who voted vote for one player over the other? I feel like it was to ensure they look less scummy. Furc was on the chopping block for bad play/claiming/poor posts/ect but Surye was actually being lynched with cases on him. I feel a mafia player would hop on the wagon that is more likely to make them look good rather then policy lynching.

Let's assume for a moment here that Surye's wagon is scum-led and that all the people hopping on at the last moment were townies. Then, by reasoning, Furcolow's wagon must be scum-led as well. After all, these last six townies could have either voted Furcolow or Surye, both legit wagons. The people who tilted the scales are in this case not the early voters, but the late voters. Actually, that's not completely right either. All the people on the Surye-wagon helped tilt the scales together.

Sure, wagons are more likely to be successful when scum gives it their blessing, especially on day one, but town can always push through if they need to. Hence the significant percentage of scum lynches on Day 1.

I don't think that what you are arguing serves us any purpose. Yos was stating his reasoning for looking for scum on the Surye wagon but you are not really disagreeing with him, just stating what town should do which is often not what happens.

unvote

Kison is the supposed Cult then. What to do what to do....


@Buddy- Amrun defended me as town