New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[silverbullet999]

-Mastin
Alright so question... are you basing me scum simply from vca... vca solely based off day 1?

[mastin2]

VCA is a bullshit method of scumhunting. It takes into account only some of the objective facts, and none of the subjective factors.

Why are you not lynching Mastin? He fakeclaimed Cop, causing the real cop to say something that got him killed, and saved someone from being lynched that almost half the thread wanted dead.

This is a gambit from Mastin.

PE: Mastin, why am I scum if Silver flips Town? You've said that a few times now, but have not adequately explained it.

VCA is not the only reason. VCA is what I used to get my initial reads. When I checked the thread and read in more detail, the reads were backed up by in-thread evidence. It was the start, the base, the foundation, sure, but it's not a holy scumhunting weapon.

It was, indeed, a gambit. One which has managed to work out after all, despite the flaws in it. For the scum to know my claim was false, they either had to deduce it (possible, but not in my mind very likely), or they had to KNOW it. If Silver's scum, they obviously knew I was lying. If Silver's town, however, that means it would be someone else who would just know it. That person being you, Pine. You figured out I was gambitting hours after I made that post. You weren't positive and decided to ponder it. (I believe the words were "ponder overnight" or something like that. I have the exact quote somewhere.) But you still managed to figure it out.

It suggests that KoC likely investigated Mastin on Night 1

Dear lord, I hope not. Smart cop play is to not investigate your counter-claim. Smart cop play is to gather other results and possibly 'crumb 'em.

[mastin2]

Town gambit on a strong gut read, maybe.

The exact words. When you realized I was gambiting, I knew I could use it to semi-confirm reads.

Agree with mastin on Nobody Special. WIlling to give him benefit of doubt on yesterdays inactivity.

I find this to be a more likely investigation.

Mastin is one of the main reasons I lend no credence to meta-tells. 'nuff said.

This quote implies possible suspicion of me, pretty much ruling me out as KoC's investigation, fortunately.

This to me doubly-clears NS who I already thought was town.

[Pine]

VCA is NOT a tool to get initial reads. It is something you should be using to back up your gut reads, not the other way around. I've played with you in what? Five game now? And every SINGLE time, the results of your VCA have proven to be wrong. You use VCA alone to find your scum, and then interpret the subjective evidence in whatever light you feel best supports those conclusions. Not once have I ever seen you decide the results of your VCA were wrong until they were proven wrong, at which point you glibly wave off the error.

Christ, Mastin, how many times do you have to come to an incorrect conclusion about me to just decide to stop trying? Every time I'm Town, you declare me scum. Every time I'm scum, you declare me innocent. At this point, it might be better to take whatever reads you have on me and just do the opposite.

On the other hand, I've got you pegged, I think. I've played with you enough to recognize your gambits, and it isn't like you tried very hard to pretend you were serious about it. The reason I figured your gambit quickly, which you conveniently forget to repeat in your quotes, is that investigating Silver flies completely in the face of your Cop strategy manifesto.

What you say about KoC's investigation, however, is likely accurate. And given that, it throws the question of your guilt or innocence back into play. Personally, I think we're better off hanging you and knowing for sure. You play games with Town, deceive, and are superlatively manipulative. And that is anti-Town. Hell, your eagerness to kill Mafia and unconcern might even make you our Serial Killer.

VOTE: Mastin

[mastin2]

First two paragraphs of that post: Attacking my general playstyle.

The reason I figured your gambit quickly, which you conveniently forget to repeat in your quotes, is that investigating Silver flies completely in the face of your Cop strategy manifesto.

Indeed, but (if memory serves--will need to check on the posts from that time period) only you managed to keep this suspicion up for a prolongued period of time. I think I did a good enough job of BS'ing a reason to investigate Silver. (The key to doing convincing BSing is to lie as little as possible. Preferably not at all, if you can get away with it. For instance, I legitimately have gained respect for Silver as a player, and I did see Silver's reads as being valuable.)

Also. I'm re-analyzing things right now.

There are significant connections which can be found with a lynch of Pine or Silver, connections I think will guarantee me to nail the rest of the scumteam for sure. For instance, I'm in the process of triple-checking it right now, but so far, evidence is suggesting that Uite is less likely scum than I originally thought, and Maxous is slightly more likely than I had originally assumed. ALSO for instance, there's evidence suggesting Zepher COULD be town. Admittedly not a lot of evidence, but enough to make me not want to lynch him.

I really want one of Silver/Pine dead. Simply because I really think I have this game in my control, and that with one of/both of them dead, I can call the scumteam tomorrow based on their flips.

[Pine]

Really? Call them now, with all four possibilities. Silver Town, Silver Scum, Pine Town, Pine Scum. My guess is that you are, as always, stalling for time and space to concoct your labyrinthine, content-devoid posts. You make them, cap them with TL;DR statements, and people believe you because you appear to have done your research.

Appear to.

And what are these mysterious connections you keep alluding to? You've made the classic argument from repetition that a Silver or Pine flip will help you solve everything, but have never explained how that would happen, despite direct questions being asked of you to that end.

[mastin2]

Oh, and to clarify:
While a lynch on both Pine and Silver will likely give me all the information I need to know, the lynch on Silver I feel would give me better information.

To answer Pine--I'm not finished with it, yet. I'm still working on it. The analysis is incomplete, but what I have so far has led me to believe one of you being the lynch today, and possibly the other as a vig (definitely if the lynch flips town, I-honestly-don't-know if the lynch flips scum) will clue me in on the alignment of Zepher, Uite, and Maxous, my working three secondary suspects. Zepher's been my classic choice for second, Uite's been pretty null, and Maxous I've had a town-read on. Zepher's currently "I-have-no-freakin'-clue", Uite's looking favorable, and Maxous is looking slightly more suspicious.

But that's as much info as I can gain from things right now without a flip. All I can do without a flip is continue the research to find out what I find to be the most probable.

It'll take time to finish, but I've been working on it since noon. (It's nearly 2.)

[Pine]

So, in other words, you haven't completed any analysis, but you already know the result of it.

jmurph, you've been had by an expert manipulator.

Confirm Vote: Mastin

[mastin2]

So, in other words, you haven't completed any analysis, but you already know the result of it.

...Yeah? I haven't finished my analysis. I'm still working on it. But even with incomplete analysis, I can still form conclusions, can I not? The conclusions might change (even if they are doubtful to do so) when I finish my research, but it's not a crime to have 'em before I finish. I do it all the time.

[MrZepher]

I don't think it's anti-town to form reads on people before the evidence, so long as you're not following through with them too strongly.
Basically, it's fine as long as it doesn't form the source for confirmation.

Bad vote is bad.

@Jmurph
I never TRIED to confirm anything with Pine. I SPECIFICALLY said it's in NO WAY a confirmation. I was justifying why I would think Pine is town.

Also, how am I buddying with Uite at all? I think he's a perfectly justified lynch (I'm a fan of the lynch all lurkers policy, when applicable, and it's VERY applicable here)
I have a scumread on Uite. I just don't think we have much to lose with lynching him.
But now that I think about it, he's probably not the best candidate out of this, so I DO take that back.
You're vote on me seems kind of silly, but I guess I can see why it's there. It's sort of justified.

Also, a VCA saying that I look town, while is not exactly incorrrect, obviously hasn't taken into account the fact that I basically didn't do anything useful Day 1 until I focused in on Amor.

[Maxous]

^
Well I never intended it to be conclusive. It's just one of the angles I'm looking at. (It's obviously not going to fully work because of Uite's ann NS' releative inactivity Day 1)
From memory it looks good that you attacked Amor but not DK though.

[nhammen]

@mastin: I also discovered that you were probably fakeclaiming, after I saw Pine's response. It is likely that other people did as well. So on that note, this gambit hasn't said much. But. I agree that Silver is likely scum. On Day 1 I thought he was scum... and on Day 2 I completely forgot about him because he was nowhere to be seen. Now a day 1 case needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but he was legitimately scummy until you pulled out your gambit. And then he conveniently disappeared.

FTR: I still have a Town read on Maxous, and on Pine, and a VI town read on Toon.
I don't see a scum mastin pulling this kind of gambit. It's just too ballsy, even for mastin. Scum don't act this way. So I am thinking that mastin is dumb town and not scum.

Thus my suspects are silver, Zepher, and Uite. NS would be a suspect, but mastin raises a good point about KoC's likely investigation. However, we can't be certain of this at all. So distant suspects are mastin and NS. Everyone else is likely or confirmed town at this point.

@Pine: Bad play does not equal scum play. mastin is likely town, in my opinion.

in conclusion:
VOTE: silverbullet

[silverbullet999]

-Nhammen
(ib omgus)

1. Present your case (and no I don't want Oh you looked scummy day 1).
2.

Day 2 I completely forgot about him because he was nowhere to be seen.

Oxymoron and doesn't quite work. If you had your doubts about mastin's claim and you still thought I was suspicious how do you "forget" about me, one of "your suspects".
3.

And then he conveniently disappeared.

Yes because I made posts on the days of day 2 in this game... (Go Ahead And Check)

VOTE: Nham

-Mastin
Any day you feel like answering 675... would be nice...

[mastin2]

I did.
Answer's no.

[silverbullet999]

-mastin
what post?
what is?

[Nobody Special]

I think Pine is trying too hard (and therefore scum). I think Mastin is ....Mastin, and therefore unreadable.

Everyone else is below the radar. My vote for today will be on either Mastin or Pine.

If I could just figure out which one's town ...and which one's scum.

[mastin2]

If I could just figure out which one's town ...and which one's scum.

It's possible we both are. And I know I currently do. Granted, my reads are incomplete, and I still think a Pine death will help tell me who the scum are, but doesn't change how I think right now he's town, albeit wrong town.

(And yes, I am highly incoherent right now. I will be getting to this game when I'm better.)

[Toon Fighter]

V/LA till tomorrw

been busy. I'll probably make a good post tomorrow

[jmurph3]

Pine's attacking of mastin and absolute vehemence by him is surprising to me. It's one thing to disagree, but to take such umbrage with what mastin's saying suggests something deeper at work. In fact, I'm reading it as a strong chainsaw defense of silver. After all, mastin's read of Pine is town(ish), meaning that the attacking by Pine isn't personal (theoretically speaking), which then means that it's a little over-the-top to me.Let's just say, IGMEOY.

[jmurph3]

EBWOP: I feel like that didn't come out the way I intended. To sum in a hopefully more coherent way: I'd expect Pine's type of reaction against mastin much more if Pine were being attacked or suspected, and the fact that mastin currently has a town read on him make me a little suspicious of Pine.

[Maxous]

It's been apparent from the start that Pine has a hesticancy with Mastin from previous games.
I would take his actions with a pinch of salt.

[mastin2]

Indeed. As my reads on Pine are not that good, so too are apparently his reads on me.

Still, though. Evidence I have makes me lean towards Pine as town. A few things. General interactions, some voting patterns, his attack on me, general read, etc. His death'd generate a lot of info, so that's why he's an okay lynch, but I'm less sure he'll flip scum than Silver. If both flipped town, something wouldn't be right with my reads and I'd need to reevaluate everything.

[Pine]

But that's impossible, Mastin! Your reads are flawless.

Can you people start actually reading his posts? YET AGAIN he advocates lynching a Town read and someone he once stuck his neck out for (while lying to Town). And he STILL doesn't explain HOW either of us dying would generate information.

You know whose death would be informative? Mastin's.

[quadz08]

The Dawn of Day Three Votecount

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

jmurph3 (0) –
silverbullet999 (3) – mastin2, Toon Fighter, nhammen
mastin2 (1) – Pine
nhammen (1) – silverbullet999
Pine (0) –
MrZepher (1) – jmurph3
Nobody Special (0) -
Uite (0) -
Toon Fighter (0) –
Maxous (0) –

Not Voting (4) – MrZepher, Nobody Special, Uite, Maxous

Deadline is in (expired on 2011-06-09 23:00:00)

[Uite]

I'm sorry for checking in so late, I've been sick for the past few days. Anyway, reading up on Today's posts, there's one player who gives me a really strong gut scumread. I find it hard to explain, but nearly every post seems to be written from a scum perspective. Who am I talking about? Well:

VOTE: jmurph3