Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

[MagnaofIllusion]

You STILL have not responded to a single thing I have said.

What am I not responding to again? The last time I responded to your assertions you came out with 565 where you yourself failed to actually address arguement but made a HERP DA DERP post. I'm responding to your "MoI is a Werewolf. I've proven it" statements by labelling them what they are ... Appealing to Repetition and rhetoric. Typical scum attempt here - keep repeating the same lines over and over as opposed to actually demonstarting them to be true.

You are also trying to avoid RESPONDING TO ME by CHANGING THE TOPIC OF CONVERSATION. When you have two scum pegged as strongly as I do (Magna and Muffin), I am not going to muddy the waters by naming other suspects. I have no desire. Furthremore, unlike yourself, I have no intention of planning any future days lynches. You are completely beside the point. My next post will be you again.

I don't care whether you suspect me or not. I'm just quite clearly showing that you aren't really scum-hunting from a Town perspective. You aren't trying to identify all the enemy groups. The above quoted paragraph illustrates it quite clearly - "My reads are so strong I'm not going to muddy the waters" is code phrase for the following - "I don't want to commit to actual reads so in days going forward I can take whatever position I want without having to worry about possibly explaining a change". No coincidence that the group you don't want to commit to happens to be your buddy in the Evil Sheep.

[Wickedestjr]

especially Sloth, who looks REALLY bad by replacing out. (I did that once - when I was scum)

How many games have you played HezLucky? In your experience do scum replace out more often than town?

ISOing CJ was to no avail, as my suspicions brought me with 4 possible suspects of his partners (which obviously is wrong, as there can only be 2 partners of his.) They are:

Hez,

Deity

, Sloth, and

DK

.

Lol. I guess you find DeityKabuto twice as suspicious as the other two players? Who is

really

your fourth suspect for cjdrum's partner?

268 - wkdjr say MOI-Emp exchange points to MOI as town. (Why town? Why not competing scum factions? How does the Emp flip affect the town read on MOI?)

Originally, I felt that MoI was brave as scum to attract so much attention to himself. But, to be honest, after thinking about this point some more I don't put much merit in this point anymore, because there were several players that suspected Empking and MoIscum could have easily argued with Empking to try to earn townpoints. The Empking town flip didn't change anything considering I had a very strong town read on him before he even died.

511 - DK attests that if cj is scum that scum will 'try' to avoid his wagon.

(Way to commit)

This seems like an odd comment coming from you, considering in the same post you say this:

Leaning scum - DK, MOI, ZMuffin, and neil.

I'm not confident enough in my scum radar to believe I have pegged all four

but these four have most of my suspicions.

[HezLucky]

EBWOP: too lazy to read most recent post, so this post is posted without the one right above it in mind.

durrr Hez just made a post to me. I have a brilliant idea. I am going to use my dictionary of random and arbitrary words to try and respond to his post. It's not like my words have any meaning whatsoever. I'm just "mudslinging" them around, as I am quite "quaint" and excellent at using "empty rhetoric". Also, I am specifically not going to respond to Hez's point in the previous post about my planning of lynches and how I like to twist evidence around to fit whatever it is I want to do for the day. No, not at all. I will probably get away with it too. Seeing as this town is full of {REDACTED -- use your imagination kids. Magna, use your dictionary} none of them will notice that I have not actually replied to Hez's points because Hez very rarely posts points anyway. They will think I did reply.

Hey, I feel like ISOing someone. :uses random number generator:

Oh man, this guy looks scummy.

ISO 1 - this person, whoever it is, decides to give advice to the "Seer" so that he can force the Seer to act in a predictable manner for the rest of the game, in case he or anyone in his scumgroup need to fakeclaim the only possible fakeclaim later.
ISO 4 - man this person sure is eager to start accusing people before the game even starts.
ISO 13 - this person directly contradicts himself when he states that "See I can throw pointless barbed statements out just like you. I try to refrain from doing it since it isn't Pro-Town behavior." even though this person has been doing nothing BUT that towards this Hez guy the entire game. Pointless, barbed statements in an attempt to discredit, as well as thinking that throwing random words out of his dictionary is actually RESPONDING TO AN ARGUMENT.

Hey MOI, this Iso

is on you

, and throwing random words from your dictionary is

not a response to an argument

Man, this is tiring. Let's iso this scum some more:

I encourage everyone to look at the following posts:

ISO 13 - the entire ISO is on Empking. Notice how his style of attacking Empking is exactly how he attacks everyone else this game. He tries to discredit Empking himself. For example:
"Nice attempt to deflect with Wiki-tells, BTW"
"This is just more smearing from you. Noted."
"All you are doing is suffering from Confirmation Bias"
"Very typical soft attack"

major scumtell number one

: ALL that Magna EVER DOES is use his big, fancy logic words. Now, I do not believe Magna is a poor player. Yet regardless of who is target is for the day, he is able to come up with a laundry list of why that person is scum. a LAUNDRY LIST. He has close to 50 reasons, usually, why that person has done scummy things. However, here's the kicker: If you are not Magna's lynch-du-jour (or a future lynch), he won't even acknowledge ANY scum tells that you are showing. Magna will simply IGNORE YOU, even though he could easily come up with 20-30 scumtells to justify your lynch no matter WHO YOU ARE. Magna is very very good at picking out arbitrary things and accusing you of them. However, he does not do this to everynoe.

Let me explain:
Let's say Person A (ie. myself, or Sloth) is Magna's target-du-jour, and Person B (iunno, a Muffin) is not. I believe town Magna would hunt for scumtells ridiculously, look for very arbitrary things, and would decide that Person A has 50 of these scumtells (yes, Magna can come up with 50, no problem), and that Person B has 20-30. I believe Scum-Magna would not want to attract any attention to Person B, as 30 is a LOT of scumtells, even though it is less than 50, and would just ignore them and attack Person A. That is what Magna has been doing this game. Unlike myself, he is very very good at finding very arbitrary things (every single post someone makes is scummy? hah) to discredit a person's position, and therefore it follows that he should be able to find these scumtells for EVERYONE. However, he is ignoring several people in this game. It is not becaues he has a neutral read on them, or has nothing to comment about -- as mentioned earlier, Magna could give 20 scumtells for every person's most recent post, but rather he does not want to draw suspicion towards them. Magna is smearing a select few people in this game so he can set up lynches for later.

major scumtell number two

: going to do this in a future post. it's stronger that way

You have no idea how badly I wish I was a vigilante right now. You would not survive the night.

(hell I don't even want to continue with the ISO -- too boring. Let's see if Magna actually responds to a SINGLE ONE OF MY POINTS without just reaching into his dictionary of words and pulling something out in hopes that I will go away. I will not, Magna, and I'm going to make this day BRUTAL for you.)

[MagnaofIllusion]

major scumtell number one : ALL that Magna EVER DOES is use his big, fancy logic words

So basically my personal playstyle is a scum-tell. Good to know.

Yet regardless of who is target is for the day, he is able to come up with a laundry list of why that person is scum. a LAUNDRY LIST. He has close to 50 reasons, usually, why that person has done scummy things. However, here's the kicker:

If you are not Magna's lynch-du-jour (or a future lynch), he won't even acknowledge ANY scum tells that you are showing

Except the asserted, which I’ve bolded, is not even close to being true. I’ve clearly spent time looking at both you and DK today (in putting together relational tells and assessments of scummy play) but neither of you are at the top of my lynch list. Because you are unlikely Werewolves. So that argument falls flat on its face.

I believe town Magna would hunt for scumtells ridiculously, look for very arbitrary things, and would decide that Person A has 50 of these scumtells (yes, Magna can come up with 50, no problem), and that Person B has 20-30.

You’ve never played a game with me so I have no idea where you are getting this ‘numberizing’ system. I don’t attempt to ‘value’ scum-tells and go after people based on a summary of these values. You are the one that has the ‘scum meter’, not me. I don’t hunt by volume. This is a further example of not honest scum hunting by Hez. He's trying to frame what he thinks Town Magna would do while not actually looking at my many completed Town games. He's attempting to meta me to some ficticious standard. Not a Town thought Process.

You have no idea how badly I wish I was a vigilante right now. You would not survive the night.

Yes, I understand that you wish you had a Nightkill so you didn’t have to worry about actually trying to get my lynched. That's what I would expect from a Evil Sheep who feels trapped by my suspicion.

(hell I don't even want to continue with the ISO -- too boring. Let's see if Magna actually responds to a SINGLE ONE OF MY POINTS without just reaching into his dictionary of words and pulling something out in hopes that I will go away. I will not, Magna, and I'm going to make this day BRUTAL for you.)

Why bother to actual build a case …

If you think what you are doing is ‘brutal’ I’ve got news for you Tex … it’s more like ‘brutally funny’.

[zMuffinMan]

@Regfan,

What are you talking about? I've been suggesting the likelihood that Hez+Wicked are scum together since the beginning of D2.

[DeityKabuto]

Unvote
Vote Regfan

obvscum obv

We lynch Regfan today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Neil.

[Umbrage]

Vote Count:

neil1113 (2) - Regfan, Wickedestjr
HezLucky (1) - zMuffinMan
havingfitz (1) - MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
Regfan (1) - DeityKabuto

Not Voting: havingfitz, neil1113

[havingfitz]

I see little if any Sloth focus on your part on D2 yet despite other suspicions you’ve got material/evidence/ etc. on others, you are fine with pursuing the Sloth slot’s lynch today. That is scummy IMO.

Wait, whut? It’s scummy to for me to suspect you when I feel you are a Werewolf and lynching the Evil Sheep (Hez and DK, IMO) as opposed to a Werewolf isn’t in Town’s best interest?

As to a focus on your slot Day 2 – sorry , I’m allowed to follow my suspicions wherever they lead.

It is not scummy for you to suspect me. It is not scummy for people to change their minds about others as the game progresses. What IS scummy is to line up the next day’s lynch, basically to make a deal, even though you have expressed little suspicion towards that person.

Why do you find my slot scummy MOI? Why have you changed your focus from the 4 or 5 scum you stated MUST be on the Emp mislynch (made when Emp was at L-2)?

You do know that people posting more in one thread vs another does not preclude them from being town? You do know that right? If anything I usually think of it as people are bored with the game they are ignoring…and IMO it is easier to be bored when you are town then when you are scum.

I do know it doesn’t preclude them from being Town. However it is OVERWHELMINGLY more likely to come from Scum than Town when said player is under suspicion (which Sloth was from LMP). Spinning it as ‘bored Townie’ is WIFOM.

Unless you have statistics to back up your “OVERWHELMINGLY more likely” comment I suggest you stop with the hyperbole. The way you are “spinning it” is WIFOM as well. That’s why it is null. Also...the only suspicion I can see from LMP on Sloth has to do with his

lurking

actively posting in another game. Well Sloth’s departure from the game came BEFORE LMP’s suspicions were raised...not as a result of it. You are misrepresenting the suspicions on Sloth to make it look like he was avoiding the game based on suspicions. He was not under any suspicions from what I can see...at least not UNTIL after he started to ignore this game.

I disagree that Sloth wasn’t under suspicion. You ignore the fact that before the shift to CJdrum I had particularly pointed out the Sloth’s behavior was suspect.

Show me the quote. I see where you make a post pre-Sloth AWOL where you claim he [Sloth] would be a scum suspect IF Emp were to flip scum. He did not BTW. And as mentioned above...you have subsequently skipped over the 4 or 5 people on Emp’s L-2 wagon who you were certain must be scum if Emp flipped town...he did BTW.

In response to your numbers –

1. Yep, you may find it a scum-tell. IMO at worst a Null-Tell since it is in a Townie’s best interest to direct Town in the direction he sees as effective scum-hunting.

And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

2. If you can show me the scum motivations in the original post please do so. What do scum specifically gain? Curious to see what possible motivation you can come up with other than the ‘you are trying to look Townie’ angle which again we disagree on.

I’m guessing my catch up post had 75-100 lines in it. All made up of posts that caught my attention. Not all that I would consider scum tells. They were a real time play by play of what I was thinking. I was not implying there were scum motivations in your comment in question. I was implying that you had not put a lot of thought in a previous comment by not thinking a subject all the way through. I would not put a vote on someone for that suspicion. I would (and have) stated it is not a major tell. The fact you are choosing to continue defending this minor point is becoming more suspect IMO that the original suspicion.

3. It wasn’t a random vote. You can disagree with me about whether you think it is nor not but if you do you are wrong. I’m the one who cast the vote and knows my motivations.

If it wasn’t random...then why not give one single hint of rationale as to why you were placing it?

4. I’d already answer Empking’s questions on multiple occasions throughout Day 1. By the time of the post in question he was again rehashing ground covered by myself and others.

Again..you made no mention of having answered it previously when you told Emp you WEREN’T going to answer him. Not answering questions raises suspicion.

5) I assume my response to five is no longer “incorrect?”

7. There is a huge world of difference between “Hmmm, I was wrong about Empking I need to re-read” and “Damn, we’re screwed as helpless Town now that the Seer is dead”.

How much difference does it take for it not to be suspicious? Neil’s response was more emphatic and I noted it. Once again...a minor suspicion IMO...but the minors add up.

9. Then you don’t know what ‘Setting up lynches’ is. Town in a scum rich environment should have multiple suspicions. Setting up lynches is saying “Hez is obv-scum if CJdrum flips Town for x,y,z” before a flip happens.

I didn’t realize I was in the presence of the all knowing mafia adjudicator of everything. You say you aren’t lining up a lynch, I say you are and IMO your comments support that. Since we disagree it’s moot between us and depends on how others see it...if they care. It’s a big tell IMO given the limited attention you had given the Sloth slot the entire game.

10. It is inconsistent because you are trying to classify CJ’d parting WIFOM as something that you should be suspicious of me for. The only way that you should be suspicous of me for CJ’s statement is if you think we are partners and he was spewing WIFOM trying possibly distance from me with that statement. Yet you clearly think he and I could not be partners. What inside information is he possibly working from to make that post in your scenario? He can’t know my alignment other than that I’m not Evil Sheep.

First off...once again...my comments were made as I progressed through the game and are what my thoughts at that time were. My first comment indicated

doubt

that you and cj were the same alignment (ie you could be a werewolf). Your comments make it seem I was convinced you were not scum. I never indicated that. As for the 2nd comment, I said I was “Not sure what to make of cj's comments” towards you. I still feel that way. Uncertainty is part of the game. Are you saying I should consider you a LOCK to not be a partner of cj? Have you ever bussed as scum?

11. I’ll cover this later when I break down my ISO of your slot. Suffice it say it is a pretty strong scum tell in my mind when a player replaces in and says, effectively, “The person playing in this slot before was a moron”. It allows the replacing scum to free themselves from reads of the slot already and go in whatever direction of mislynching they wish.

Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said Sloth was a moron. All I did was note two of his posts that I did not care for. Up to that point in the game I thought Sloth had played, albeit sparingly, a decent game. Also...when I commented on those posts I had the benefit of knowing Emp’s imminent flip and therefore how accurate Sloth’s suspicions were. The second post I just did not agree with.

12. No, I don’t agree. It’s pointless ‘Sky is Falling’ material. After the lynch for the day we had two living werewolves in 11 living players. Empking had at absolute worst a 2/10 (20%) chance of randomly scanning a Werewolf. It’s not a good risk in a mutli-scum game (where there is another faction with strong motivation to hunt you down) to risk losing 50% of your team to a scan result. Even taking that risk you allow the Seer a chance to get a clear on someone as Werewolf that may be important down the line. Again, as I properly predicted Empking died.

So you are saying you don’t agree with logic (leaving Emp alive N1) which if adopted by the wolves would have been a bad wolf move to make. Why not?

Why not agree with something that if the wolves had bought it...could have benefitted town?

Instead you flaunt your mafia IQ by stating the obvious and adding the point that you predicted Emp would die. Other than stroking your own ego what purpose does your “once again, stating the obvious” successful prediction matter?

[HezLucky]

Man havingfitz is easily winning the argument with MoI (one is spouting bs, the other is not) but I'd like to know what the rest of the town thinks of this.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 4pm EST until Tuesday for the holiday weekend and my usual family duties.

I’ll be doing my HF / Neil ISO reads in my next content post.

--

Unvote
Vote Regfan

obvscum obv

We lynch Regfan today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Neil.

This post baffles my mind. DK has spent 2 days yelling that Neil was scum. At the point he made this post Neil had 3 votes (with his) and Reg had none. I can’t fathom why any alignment would leap off the leading wagon he had been clamouring for to vote someone else on ‘gut’.

--

Why do you find my slot scummy MOI? Why have you changed your focus from the 4 or 5 scum you stated MUST be on the Emp mislynch (made when Emp was at L-2)?

At a gut level I suspect your slot for very low performance levels Day 1 and Day 2, Sloth’s being active in other games while avoiding this one (again, a scum-tell to me as I demonstrated with CJDrum), and LMP’s death after his strong suspicion of your slot.

Again I’ll be re-reading your ISO and neil’s ISO to see which I think best fits as a Werewolf in my game architechture.

What focus are you talking about? I’ve never believed that 4 to 5 scum were on Empking’s L-1 wagon. My whole commentary there was to demonstrate that his ‘quick-hammer’ fear was unfounded since Empking himself thought most or all of the scum were on his wagon. Was there scum on the wagon besides CJDrum? I think so since I have Hez and DK slotted as Evil Sheep. That said I can't see a higher concentration than that and this is making me rethink CJ - Hez - DK as Evil Sheep since I can't believe all three would crowd on the wagon, especially in slots 3 4 and 5. Your slot's hop onto the 6th vote also increase my thoughts you may be Werewolf, but it also makes me fairly confident you aren't scum with Neil.

Unless you have statistics to back up your “OVERWHELMINGLY more likely” comment I suggest you stop with the hyperbole. The way you are “spinning it” is WIFOM as well. That’s why it is null.

It think the proper response is this is best summarized as the following –

Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

As you’ve stated yourself – it is a strong personal tell that I have. I don’t need a full on Hoopla statistical analysis to run with it. You are doing the same with your personal tells.

Show me the quote.

Here you go –

In looking at ISOs Cjdrum and Sloth’s votes for Emp look the worst.

I’ve also reviewed Sloth’s posting history. He has 20 posts on site since the thread opened on Friday. Not a single one in this game.

Hez on the other hand hasn’t made a post on sight since he last posted here.

One of these behaviors is highly suspect compared to the other. And may earn my vote.

I think both those quotes show considerable interest in your slot as scum. If anything you earned a repreive via CJ's more egregious play.

And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

And it’s in Town’s best interest to appear Townie also. Unless you are going to say Scum are more likely to appear Town than Town is it’s a Null tell at worst.

I’m guessing my catch up post had 75-100 lines in it. All made up of posts that caught my attention. Not all that I would consider scum tells. They were a real time play by play of what I was thinking. I was not implying there were scum motivations in your comment in question. I was implying that you had not put a lot of thought in a previous comment by not thinking a subject all the way through. I would not put a vote on someone for that suspicion. I would (and have) stated it is not a major tell. The fact you are choosing to continue defending this minor point is becoming more suspect IMO that the original suspicion.

So you made a long post that was peppered with comments that weren’t scummy but simply observations? Ok, why fluff the length of your replace in post that way? You presented that along with your ‘scum reads’ (which you also distanced yourself from, as others have noted) as the supporting case. If you want to try to say questioning you about the materials in your Wall that aren’t scum-tells is scummy then have at it.

If it wasn’t random...then why not give one single hint of rationale as to why you were placing it?

Because to me it was clear my motivation in context of the pre-game talk.

Question

– do you always suspect players who don’t give concrete reasons with votes? Are people like Faraday who never do automatically scummy to you for their playstyle?

How much difference does it take for it not to be suspicious? Neil’s response was more emphatic and I noted it. Once again...a minor suspicion IMO...but the minors add up.

1. CJ’s response was the most emphatic. Did you note it? I don't remember.
2. If you can’t see the difference explaining it to you again isn’t going to help. I’ve explained the classic scum-tell of “Oh we are screwed without the Seer” and how it is completely different from admitting my Empking read was wrong.

I didn’t realize I was in the presence of the all knowing mafia adjudicator of everything. You say you aren’t lining up a lynch, I say you are and IMO your comments support that. Since we disagree it’s moot between us and depends on how others see it...if they care. It’s a big tell IMO given the limited attention you had given the Sloth slot the entire game.

Your dismissive sarcasm aside the volume of my posting with active and scummy players is always going to be higher compared to a low content producing active lurker like Sloth. Take that as a scum-tell if you wish.

First off...once again...my comments were made as I progressed through the game and are what my thoughts at that time were. My first comment indicated doubt that you and cj were the same alignment (ie you could be a werewolf). Your comments make it seem I was convinced you were not scum. I never indicated that. As for the 2nd comment, I said I was “Not sure what to make of cj's comments” towards you. I still feel that way. Uncertainty is part of the game. Are you saying I should consider you a LOCK to not be a partner of cj? Have you ever bussed as scum?

So your stance is you made a bunch of observations and don’t necessarily have to stick with them because they were “stream of conciouisness”?

If that’s the case I want a concrete list of reason you suspect me … similar to the case you’ve been asking me to provide on you. Because you’ve made it clear that anything you said in your catch-up may or may not be valid depending on your mood at the time.

Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said Sloth was a moron. All I did was note two of his posts that I did not care for. Up to that point in the game I thought Sloth had played, albeit sparingly, a decent game. Also...when I commented on those posts I had the benefit of knowing Emp’s imminent flip and therefore how accurate Sloth’s suspicions were. The second post I just did not agree with.

Of course you didn’t say those words directly. I’m pointing out that behavior such as that is a strong scum-tell for replacements. I’ve done it myself. So throwing in those comments about Sloth didn’t serve a Pro-Town purpose other than to distance yourself form the predecessor. Town doesn’t actively do that, IMO.

So you are saying you don’t agree with logic (leaving Emp alive N1) which if adopted by the wolves would have been a bad wolf move to make. Why not?

Why not agree with something that if the wolves had bought it...could have benefitted town?

Instead you flaunt your mafia IQ by stating the obvious and adding the point that you predicted Emp would die. Other than stroking your own ego what purpose does your “once again, stating the obvious” successful prediction matter?

I’ve bolded the part you state here as a knock on me that explains why it wasn’t going to happen and was pointless "Pro Townie" posturing.

Scum aren’t in the habit of doing things that are more beneficial to Town than themselves on a lark just because someone makes a post. That’s Mafia 101. You can say it is ‘flaunting my Mafia IQ’ if you wish … it is just common sense. Even the worst scum I’ve ever seen (Razorback) would not be foolish enough to risk being scanned just to WIFOM it up.

The only reason the Day 1 claimed Seer lives til morning is because he was fake-claiming Wolf.

Finally fitz - why are you not voting?

The day is well underway. I don't see why you haven't committed your vote to one of your suspects.

[havingfitz]

Unvote
Vote Regfan

obvscum obv

We lynch Regfan today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Neil.

This post baffles my mind. DK has spent 2 days yelling that Neil was scum. At the point he made this post Neil had 3 votes (with his) and Reg had none. I can’t fathom why any alignment would leap off the leading wagon he had been clamouring for to vote someone else on ‘gut’.

I noticed and agree with this suspicion.

Why do you find my slot scummy MOI? Why have you changed your focus from the 4 or 5 scum you stated MUST be on the Emp mislynch (made when Emp was at L-2)?

At a gut level I suspect your slot for very low performance levels Day 1 and Day 2, Sloth’s being active in other games while avoiding this one (again, a scum-tell to me as I demonstrated with CJDrum), and LMP’s death after his strong suspicion of your slot.

Like I’ve said…I have examples where someone ignoring one thread while being active in another was a town. In fact…I think most of the times I have encountered this situation it HAS been town.

What focus are you talking about? I’ve never believed that 4 to 5 scum were on Empking’s L-1 wagon.

My whole commentary there was to demonstrate that his ‘quick-hammer’ fear was unfounded since Empking himself thought most or all of the scum were on his wagon. Was there scum on the wagon besides CJDrum? I think so since I have Hez and DK slotted as Evil Sheep. That said I can't see a higher concentration than that and this is making me rethink CJ - Hez - DK as Evil Sheep since I can't believe all three would crowd on the wagon, especially in slots 3 4 and 5. Your slot's hop onto the 6th vote also increase my thoughts you may be Werewolf, but it also makes me fairly confident you aren't scum with Neil.

I bolded the part above. It appears to be a direct contradiction to your comments in post 319:

If Empking is Town then there MUST be a significant amount of the 5 scum on his wagon. At least 4. Otherwise the push to lynch him from both scum factions would have come by now.

BTW...I stated you made these comments when Emp was at L-2.

Unless you have statistics to back up your “OVERWHELMINGLY more likely” comment I suggest you stop with the hyperbole. The way you are “spinning it” is WIFOM as well. That’s why it is null.

It think the proper response is this is best summarized as the following –

Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

As you’ve stated yourself – it is a strong personal tell that I have. I don’t need a full on Hoopla statistical analysis to run with it. You are doing the same with your personal tells.

I would argue that you DO need statistical analysis when making over the top assertions to support your suspicions on someone.

Show me the quote.

Here you go –

In looking at ISOs Cjdrum and Sloth’s votes for Emp look the worst.

I’ve also reviewed Sloth’s posting history. He has 20 posts on site since the thread opened on Friday. Not a single one in this game.

Hez on the other hand hasn’t made a post on sight since he last posted here.

One of these behaviors is highly suspect compared to the other. And may earn my vote.

I think both those quotes show considerable interest in your slot as scum. If anything you earned a repreive via CJ's more egregious play.

Anyone who elects to bail on a game based on your ISO 46 above has no business playing mafia. If you really think your ISO 46 scared Sloth away I can only shake my head in disbelief. Your comment is hardly a damning indictment on Sloth. Your ISO 49 came AFTER Sloth has went AWOL. You can not accuse someone of being AWOL for something you say is a RESULT of him going AWOL. You are really reaching with the (and I paraphrase) “Sloth bailed because he was under so much pressure” theory.

And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

And it’s in Town’s best interest to appear Townie also. Unless you are going to say Scum are more likely to appear Town than Town is it’s a Null tell at worst.

Whatever. I have found what I perceive as overt helpfulness to be suspicious in the past and been burned for not maintaining those suspicions.

I’m guessing my catch up post had 75-100 lines in it. All made up of posts that caught my attention. Not all that I would consider scum tells. They were a real time play by play of what I was thinking. I was not implying there were scum motivations in your comment in question. I was implying that you had not put a lot of thought in a previous comment by not thinking a subject all the way through. I would not put a vote on someone for that suspicion. I would (and have) stated it is not a major tell. The fact you are choosing to continue defending this minor point is becoming more suspect IMO that the original suspicion.

So you made a long post that was peppered with comments that weren’t scummy but simply observations? Ok, why fluff the length of your replace in post that way? You presented that along with your ‘scum reads’ (which you also distanced yourself from, as others have noted) as the supporting case. If you want to try to say questioning you about the materials in your Wall that aren’t scum-tells is scummy then have at it.

It’s how I catch up in long games. You don’t have to like it. I give my thoughts on posts that catch my attention. I don’t see it as fluff…I see it as letting the other players know where my head is and to use as a baseline for subsequent suspicions. You asking about my comments is not scummy. You carrying on in defense of what I said was not a major issue IMO is suspicious.

If it wasn’t random...then why not give one single hint of rationale as to why you were placing it?

Because to me it was clear my motivation in context of the pre-game talk.

Question

– do you always suspect players who don’t give concrete reasons with votes? Are people like Faraday who never do automatically scummy to you for their playstyle?

You “Noted” the fact I found your unwillingness to answer Emp’s question to be scummy. I was going off your own words when I made that comment. Why is my suspicion worth noting when is it as a result of your direct comment to the affect that you were not going to answer his question? Ridiculous. And yes…when people vote someone out of the blue without any reasoning (or without reasons I can perceive in the context of other posts/conversations) I find it suspicious. I just finished a game with Faraday where I attacked him for this very reason, ended up backing off, and lost to Faraday scum. So that is two personal tells I have fell victim to that you are waving off.

How much difference does it take for it not to be suspicious? Neil’s response was more emphatic and I noted it. Once again...a minor suspicion IMO...but the minors add up.

1. CJ’s response was the most emphatic. Did you note it? I don't remember.
2. If you can’t see the difference explaining it to you again isn’t going to help. I’ve explained the classic scum-tell of “Oh we are screwed without the Seer” and how it is completely different from admitting my Empking read was wrong.

If you can’t see where my suspicion is coming from explaining it to you again isn’t going to help.

I didn’t realize I was in the presence of the all knowing mafia adjudicator of everything. You say you aren’t lining up a lynch, I say you are and IMO your comments support that. Since we disagree it’s moot between us and depends on how others see it...if they care. It’s a big tell IMO given the limited attention you had given the Sloth slot the entire game.

Your dismissive sarcasm aside the volume of my posting with active and scummy players is always going to be higher compared to a low content producing active lurker like Sloth. Take that as a scum-tell if you wish.

IMO you're sidestepping the fact that you were lining up the next day’s lynch. Here is a reminder:

Regardless I’ll make you a deal – support the CJ wagon today and I’ll back you on Sloth tomorrow. Sound good?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First off...once again...my comments were made as I progressed through the game and are what my thoughts at that time were. My first comment indicated doubt that you and cj were the same alignment (ie you could be a werewolf). Your comments make it seem I was convinced you were not scum. I never indicated that. As for the 2nd comment, I said I was “Not sure what to make of cj's comments” towards you. I still feel that way. Uncertainty is part of the game. Are you saying I should consider you a LOCK to not be a partner of cj? Have you ever bussed as scum?

So your stance is you made a bunch of observations and don’t necessarily have to stick with them because they were “stream of conciouisness”?

If that’s the case I want a concrete list of reason you suspect me … similar to the case you’ve been asking me to provide on you. Because you’ve made it clear that anything you said in your catch-up may or may not be valid depending on your mood at the time.

Suspicions change. Over the course of a two full days catch up….suspicions or comments made early in the read may very well change later in the read through. Why is that so hard to comprehend? I mentioned four suspects…why do I have to build a case on you for an initial gut suspicion? The reason I’ve been asking for a case from you is because you are voting me. Don’t worry…if/when I eventually put a vote down on you (or any of my suspects) I promise it will come with my reasons. Something you failed to do with your vote on Emp and with your vote on me today.

Don’t put words in my mouth. I never said Sloth was a moron. All I did was note two of his posts that I did not care for. Up to that point in the game I thought Sloth had played, albeit sparingly, a decent game. Also...when I commented on those posts I had the benefit of knowing Emp’s imminent flip and therefore how accurate Sloth’s suspicions were. The second post I just did not agree with.

Of course you didn’t say those words directly. I’m pointing out that behavior such as that is a strong scum-tell for replacements. I’ve done it myself. So throwing in those comments about Sloth didn’t serve a Pro-Town purpose other than to distance yourself form the predecessor. Town doesn’t actively do that, IMO.

I can’t distance myself from Sloth because I took over his role. That does not mean I have to agree with or like everything he posted. And if I am giving my honest assessment of things everyone said during my catchup I feel it would be dishonest to skip over things from my predecessor that caught my attention.

So you are saying you don’t agree with logic (leaving Emp alive N1) which if adopted by the wolves would have been a bad wolf move to make. Why not?

Why not agree with something that if the wolves had bought it...could have benefitted town?

Instead you flaunt your mafia IQ by stating the obvious and adding the point that you predicted Emp would die. Other than stroking your own ego what purpose does your “once again, stating the obvious” successful prediction matter?

I’ve bolded the part you state here as a knock on me that explains why it wasn’t going to happen and was pointless "Pro Townie" posturing.

Scum aren’t in the habit of doing things that are more beneficial to Town than themselves on a lark just because someone makes a post. That’s Mafia 101. You can say it is ‘flaunting my Mafia IQ’ if you wish … it is just common sense. Even the worst scum I’ve ever seen (Razorback) would not be foolish enough to risk being scanned just to WIFOM it up.

The only reason the Day 1 claimed Seer lives til morning is because he was fake-claiming Wolf.

First off…I bolded the comments in my quote. Are you even paying attention to what you write? Your faux-bolding aside, I realize it would not make sense for the wolves to leave an actual seer alive. But why not agree with the logic that IF Emp HAD made it to D2…continuing to not vote him would be the best move for town? And actually…wicked was really just advocating not making the confirmed position known that IF Emp was still here D2…that he would be the guaranteed lynch. His [wicked’s] point was that the wolves could benefit from such an assertion by taking that 80% chance of a failed Seer inspection could allow them to kill someone other than the seer and enable them to ride out a D2 mislynch on Emp courtesy of town. And not wasting their NK. I still do not see how this is bad logic. Town does not need to make their intentions absolutely clear to scum.

Finally fitz - why are you not voting?

The day is well underway. I don't see why you haven't committed your vote to one of your suspects.

I have four suspects and have not had a lot of time to post/review/build my cases. The time I have had to post in here has been tied up in this exchange with you. I should be able to get my vote down by tomorrow.

[Wickedestjr]

Aside from the havingfitz vote, I have issue with most of MoI's post 542.

What happened was you brought up a really old post and said you had a problem with it. I asked why you didn't mention it earlier. You said you did. I called bullshit because you didn't.

So no, I'm not attacking you for an old post, I'm attacking you for lying about what you said you did.

*Shrugs* I thought I had brought it up earlier than I actually did. What is the scum motivation for lying about something that is so easily provable?

And it's extremely hypocritical of you to tell me if I found it "suspicious" I would have "questioned me on it earlier". How is this not hypocritical?

I've explained why the two situations are different:

2: I'm assuming you're talking about me 'waiting so long' to bring up you not having a read on Empking vs. neil. If so...
a.) It wasn't something I had realized you were guilty of until you made a post in which you commented on a point against Empking without giving your read on him.
b.) There is a difference between the point I'm using against you and the point you're using against me. You could easily notice my reasons for believing neil vs. Empking was town vs. town just by reading the thread. Not noticing that you hadn't given your opinion on either of them was something that required an iso read.
c.) My point against you was stronger the later it was brought up.

Why have you ignored this? Responding to my post by saying "Well, how is it

not

hypocritical?" does nothing to prove your point and it is just ignorant.

Also, you

still

haven't responded to my point against you. Even

if

I was being hypocritical for attacking you for this (which I'm not as I've clearly shown) that doesn't mean you are allowed to avoid explaining the point against you. +Scumpoints for zMuffinMan

My case stands independent of meta. His town meta just solidifies my read on him.

*sighs*

Another

instance of you avoiding my questions/accusations. Does this mean you don't think the meta is valid anymore? If you do think that the meta is still valid, then please answer my question: why are you using meta on a player that hasn't been scum before?

Not really. I don’t particularly care if you disagreed with my plan. In the end as the real Seer he got killed as I predicted. Your sky is falling approach to his theoretically living thorugh the night was just that. Werewolves can’t risk the at worst 20% chance (2 Wolves out of 10 non Seer alive players) one of them gets scanned. 356 was an exercise if overthinking.

I still find it odd that you would've considered lynching Empking to be the best way to determine his allignment as opposed to the real seer counterclaiming him.

Let me ask you – you specifically asked me why I was ignoring your QUESTIONS, plural. You’ve only provide one question so far that I ‘dodged’. Why the emphasis that inferred I ‘ignored’ you more than once?

At the time I asked you why you were 'ignoring' me, I was thinking about both post 356 and my response to your accusation towards me. However, shortly after you asked me what you had 'ignored', I realized that your accusation towards me was that I was connected to Empking. However, Empking had flipped town, thus making the points invalid anyway.

Care to provide some context? Or at least post numbers? I’m not going to search my own ISO for two sentances.

Both quotes were from post 473.

Just when I thought I was almost finished - large WoTs.

[Wickedestjr]

Mod: I'm going to have limited access the next 3/4 days. I

should

still be able to post during that time.

@neil - Can you please respond to my posts directed at you yesterday and the points I brought up against you today? Thanks.

[DeityKabuto]

Guys, get on Regfan's wagon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Aside from the havingfitz vote, I have issue with most of MoI's post 542.

I'll respond to the the rest of this post at a future date ... little time now.

1. I will be looking back but why don't you disagree with the havingfitz vote? I know you aren't voting for him yourself ... did you find sloth scummy?
2. Please outline why you disagree with my 542 statements. I'd love to see what in it you have issues with.

[Regfan]

Seriously, this is what you guys are looking for, and I have spent the last two-three days SHOWING YOU WHO THE WEREWOLVES ARE. Magna and Muffin.

Other than saying, I suspect x and y therefore they must be werewolves together explain what linkages you believe you see between Magna and Muffin.

Are you scum? You are sheeping Magna's terrible terrible reads and you just defended him from my 565.

1) Apart from his read on you what reads of Magnas do you believe are terrible?
2) Your 565 had no real game related information, it was merely a personal attack, if you believe otherwise you need to step back and re-read it.

@Regfan,
What are you talking about? I've been suggesting the likelihood that Hez+Wicked are scum together since the beginning of D2.

Are you meaning to say that Wickeds efforts in pushing the Cjdrum lynch yesterday hasn't changed your opinion of Wicked in any way? If so I'd like for you to answer the following two questions.

1) What evil sheep motivation is there for pushing his partners lynch the amount that he did?
2) Do you believe that a werewolf would push a lynch knowing that it draws attention towards them during the day, the only phase in which they have issues?

Unvote Vote Regfan
obvscum obv
We lynch Regfan today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Neil.

The fact that you're instantly moving your vote based purely on who attacks you is growing tiresome. In your next post I want your list of four suspects along with reasoning behind why you believe they're scum and how they're linked together.

It is not scummy for you to suspect me. It is not scummy for people to change their minds about others as the game progresses. What IS scummy is to line up the next day’s lynch, basically to make a deal, even though you have expressed little suspicion towards that person.

I very strongly disagree, if one realizes that they are unable to get the lynch they are pushing for on their main FoS they often have to compromise via agreeing to lynch another main suspect in hope to gain peoples votes the next day.

And it’s in scum’s best interest to appear townie. Considering the tell is being directed at you, it’s no surprise you consider it null.

Considering the fact that it's a town players job to appear townie and a scum players job to appear townie one may think they have the same agenda, this is completly untrue as mafia have a hard job at geninuely town-telling. If memory serves me correctly though MoI refuses to believe in town-reads thus him finding 'acting townie' as a null-tell is completly understtandable.

Man havingfitz is easily winning the argument with MoI (one is spouting bs, the other is not) but I'd like to know what the rest of the town thinks of this.

By this do you mean that you believe HavingFitz is town, or that you believe he's just arguing better?

[zMuffinMan]

@Wicked,

*Shrugs* I thought I had brought it up earlier than I actually did. What is the scum motivation for lying about something that is so easily provable?

The scum motivation isn't in you lying, although there's no town motivation there either. The scum motivation is in you pushing a baseless point against me.

Why have you ignored this? Responding to my post by saying "Well, how is it not hypocritical?" does nothing to prove your point and it is just ignorant.

Also, you still haven't responded to my point against you. Even if I was being hypocritical for attacking you for this (which I'm not as I've clearly shown) that doesn't mean you are allowed to avoid explaining the point against you.

Yeah, no matter how many times you say you have a "point" against me, it doesn't make it valid if there actually isn't a point.

a) It wasn't something I was guilty of full-stop. I was null on that argument, and I explained why.
b) Convenient excuse.
c) No.

Happy?

*sighs* Another instance of you avoiding my questions/accusations. Does this mean you don't think the meta is valid anymore? If you do think that the meta is still valid, then please answer my question: why are you using meta on a player that hasn't been scum before?

Oh... God...

I brought up meta after making a case on him because I decided to look into his meta to see if I could find anything that would help. The only two games I found at the time were one completed game he flipped town and another ongoing game he flipped town. I looked at them, his playstyle was vastly different to these games, so I mentioned it.

It was never a part of my case against him, but I do think the fact he is playing differently to his town meta, on top of my case, is good circumstantial evidence.

Do you actually have a problem with this, or are you just trying way too hard to discredit anything you can about my case on Hez?

I still find it odd that you would've considered lynching Empking to be the best way to determine his allignment as opposed to the real seer counterclaiming him.

Well, that way the real seer wouldn't have to out himself without a result (had Empking not been the real seer). I'm not saying I agree with MoI's plan (I didn't), but there was no scum motivation in his suggestion, and you calling it suspicious is a joke.


@Regfan,

Are you meaning to say that Wickeds efforts in pushing the Cjdrum lynch yesterday hasn't changed your opinion of Wicked in any way? If so I'd like for you to answer the following two questions.

1) What evil sheep motivation is there for pushing his partners lynch the amount that he did?
2) Do you believe that a werewolf would push a lynch knowing that it draws attention towards them during the day, the only phase in which they have issues?

1) #543
2) What? Why wouldn't a werewolf push for a lynch on someone they think is mafia to gain 'town cred'? You seem convinced he couldn't be scum because it.

[neil1113]

Mod: I'm going to have limited access the next 3/4 days. I

should

still be able to post during that time.

@neil - Can you please respond to my posts directed at you yesterday and the points I brought up against you today? Thanks.

Oh, I'd need to reread over them before I could really give you any accurate response. Might be a while, don't hold your breath anytime soon. Sorry bro.

@Mod: V/LA until at LEAST the 4th. Perhaps a few days longer.

[DeityKabuto]

Unvote
Vote Neil

obvscum obv

We lynch Neil today, results are when he flips. Can't explain, but my gut is telling me that he is more of a threat than Regfan.

[DeityKabuto]

Unvote
Vote Neil

[zMuffinMan]

Can one of the people voting neil point to their case on him?

[Umbrage]

I'm back home, so prodding HezLucky for the second time and havingfitz for the first time.

[havingfitz]

I'm back home, so prodding

HezLucky for the second time and

havingfitz for the first time.

My bad for not noting the 48 hour deadline.
48 hour deadlines are BS.
48 hour deadlines on a HOLIDAY weekend are especially BS.

Why doesn't Regfan get a prod?

When I sent the prods, he was still an hour or two short. I'll prod him tomorrow, right now I need sleep...

That should cover it.

[HezLucky]

Why aren't Muffin and Magna lynched yet?

Why can't anyone agree on anything?

Why are half of the people in this game scum? You guys really suck. Someone bus Muffin/Magna already.

[Regfan]

2) What? Why wouldn't a werewolf push for a lynch on someone they think is mafia to gain 'town cred'? You seem convinced he couldn't be scum because it.

Ugh, you're actually correct, I just seemed to believe werewolves would attempt to stay out of the limelight which Wicked hasn't done.

Can one of the people voting neil point to their case on him?

1. It revolves around his decline in content, his avoidance of the spotlight whenever he's not mentions.
2. The lack of stances he takes in regards to reads, he attempts to Omgus or defend himself rather than actually scumhunt.
3. His interactions or lackthereof with Cjdrum reads as if they're partners, especially due to Cjdrum stating "One of Empking/Neil are scum" and never voting Neil upon Empkings flip.
4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie.