Return to Gambits (SK Win!)

[Ironhead]

Like jilynne, I prefer being deliberate with my vote, even in RVS. However, I think there is enough interaction to be confident in my vote.

VOTE: earworm

because I disapprove of unjustified bandwagoning in RVS. It's too easy for a scum to fly under the radar by casting a bandwagon vote on someone they know to not be scum and not have to come up with a convincing explanation.

[Ironhead]

Really.

You want justified bandwagons in RVs? If I had a justification it wouldn't be a RV.

I didn't say I want justified bandwagons. I don't want bandwagons at all, because their only justification is that they are a bandwagon. If you have a reason to suspect someone is scum, then you're voting that player not because you are "jumping on the bandwagon," but because you think the player might actually be scum.

Furthermore, RVS is random only for the town. Scum know who each other are, so for them the voting is not random. Therefore, they have a little bit of leverage (in their power of numbers, even if there are only a couple of them) to direct on whom the bandwagon falls. Occasionally, we might get lucky and see a bunch of townies randomly bandwagoning a scum; but it is much more likely that we end up with a townie getting bandwagoned, and that townie is more likely to be lynched than those who voted him -- because someone,

anyone

, can discern a "scum read" in the tea leaves of his reaction. If no one else does it, one of the scum can throw that first stone -- but usually there is a useful idiot in the town to do it first.

[Ironhead]

Vote: ironhead

Don't care about meta. His attack on jil is too pushy for so little.

I assume you mean earworm, and not jil? If so, what about it do you find too pushy?

[Ironhead]

Other's expressions of opinions are often great for scum hunting. Keeping note of D1 interactions can prove useful later. Why question and implicitly discourage questions, especially this early in the game?

I thought this was interesting:

Why question... questions?

Indeed, why question questions? Perhaps because:

Other's expressions of opinions are often great for scum hunting. Keeping note of D1 interactions can prove useful later.

If questioning others is a valid form of scum-hunting -- and I believe it is at this early stage in the game, and I think Surye indicated agreement with this viewpoint -- then what is wrong with CMAR questioning Cobblerfone? Furthermore, Cobblerfone directed his question at

anyone

("Doesn't this second post strike anyone a bit odd...?"), so CMAR's response to it was invited; while CMAR's question was directed at Cobblerfone. So why did Surye jump in and take that question for Cobblerfone?

To his credit, Cobblerfone also identified questioned Surye's intrusion into this line of questioning in post #100. Surye's response -- that he thought CMAR's post was bad -- seems legitimate enough, but he still interdicted Cobblerfone's response.

The rest of Surye's posting doesn't jump out to me as being particularly scummy. But I certainly won't accord to him a town read for his "stance with questions," like Nocmen, as it appears to me that Surye is guilty of the crime he accuses CMAR of committing -- implicitly discouraging questions by questioning the question.

[Ironhead]

What is you're opinion now of the mass claim option, ironhead?

I don't like it. It doesn't improve town odds enough to make up for the fact that we're giving the scum a short list of PRs to NK.

I would love to see more participation from a handful of other players -- DeityKabuto, sorasgoof, TheMask, wredfar, theJakalope. If they've confirmed, they know the game is going on. It is time for them to get off the sideline and into the game.

[Ironhead]

jilynne, C-Worl, Cobblerfone: Why are you not voting right now? Isn't there enough content for you to make an informed decision on who is most likely to be scum right now?

I am a firm supporter of RQS over RVS, but RQS is not license to sit on the sidelines and withhold your vote. We've got plenty of content for you to review.

[Ironhead]

Post 153 (Ironhead):

What's RQS?

>_>

Random Question Stage.

I'm still satisfied with my vote on Earworm. Several others have cast suspicion on Earworm as well, and the way he bolded his protest in post #221 does not look townish to me -- particularly because it was a defense, and not scum-hunting. BUT, the only other player voting him is the guy enduring bandwagon momentum right now. I'm not sure how genuine this vote is -- is Cobblerfone voting Earworm because he thinks he is scummy, or because he sees Earworm as a patsy? And, if Earworm is as suspicious as others have noted, why does he only have two votes?

[Ironhead]

I'm here and have been following the cases on C-worl and Pine. I'm as yet unconvinced that either are scum, but I am still looking -- I'm not bound to my current vote and will change it if a better candidate appears.

[Ironhead]

Looking at players in ISO; earworm's posting has been very townish lately. My vote on him is not well-placed. UNVOTE: Earworm

A lot of players have solid, townish posting when I review them in ISO. This is frustrating; as is the fact that a few players haven't posted a lot of substantial content to review.

One player whose posting sticks out at me is Nocmen -- he first drew my suspicion when he granted Surye a town-read for his odd questioning of Cobblerfone's question early in the day. But since then, his posting has not struck me as townish. His interaction with earworm in particular raises a red flag, as it appears to me now that earworm was satisfactorily addressing the points against him; but Nocmen would not concede this (for example, "finally, you make sense. But you still were making too many assumptions and changing scenarios" says Nocmen; but never argues his case for how earworm is making too many assumptions and changing scenarios).

VOTE: Nocmen

P-Edit: Pine, Sathoris was the first one I ISO'd because I thought he might be manipulating the town. But his ISO looks pretty townish to me; and while the case on you might be weak, but he has at least tried to construct some semblance of an argument -- many others around here cast votes with little or no justification at all.

[Ironhead]

I replied to sora's case. I'm not going to disagree with Iron's case or your sheeping of that case.

That's pretty bold -- after all, an essential part of my case on you was that you refused to acknowledge that Earworm was making sense when replying to your argumentation. Are you indicating that you were intentionally being obtuse when responding to Earworm? If so, why?

[Ironhead]

I'm sorry but this game is kind of boring. There's no town coordination at all. It seems almost impossible to get anyone close to being lynched and at this point it seems like the thread has died. I voted someone for no reason and not a single person said a word about it. People need to get more active or teh scums are gonna lurk to victory.

I agree with this. I hope we get a bit more active near deadline -- we will have to lynch someone, so there ought to be some last-minute fluctuations in votes. If that doesn't happen, this game is dead.

[Ironhead]

DK is at L-2 now. Can we hold up the momentum on this wagon until he has had a chance to respond?

[Ironhead]

DK gets no such courtesy from me. I cannot fathom how this implosion was town-motivated. (role-claim at L-4? Why?)

UNVOTE: NOCMEN
VOTE: DEITY KABUTO

[Ironhead]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DK

Look at those last two posts of his. Yeah.

You have switched votes three times recently with scant explanation. Please take an opportunity before the lynch to point out exactly what it is about DK's last two posts that indicate scum. My opinion is his last two points show a frustrated, possibly exasperated, and overwhelmed player; but a player who might yet be town. For me, it is the three posts before the last two that demonstrate scumminess. I am curious as to how you discern scumminess in DK's last two posts.

[Ironhead]

I think that at least one scum was on the DK wagon after he role-claimed. While I think his lynch was justified based on his poor play in the last few pages -- and therefore there would be town on that wagon as well -- it would also be an easy mark for scum, as they knew he wasn't scum and therefore they could assume he was the bodyguard, as claimed.

Those who joined the wagon after his role-claim include C-Worl, me, and earworm, with DK being the hammer on his own wagon. I know I am not scum; out of C-Worl and earworm, I believe earworm to be the scummier. His vote switch to DK was under-justified (Post #425: "Look at those last two posts of his. Yeah.") and seemed strongly scum-motivated; he hasn't responded to my challenge to this from post #433 to defend his questionable vote-switch.

VOTE: EARWORM

[Ironhead]

Point taken. I didn't scan the last couple of pages too closely and only looked for highlighted votes, as those were the people who put their vote where their mouth was.

[Ironhead]

Wagon up on earworm.

Before you do, please read through and offer a fresh perspective on the game; your reads, and (if you agree with the case on earworm) why you think earworm ought (or ought not) be lynched today.

[Ironhead]

I don't like how everyone is sheeping yesterday's case against earworm, with no comment on the lynch or nks. And I keep getting ignored in this game No comment on my idea and vote?

I am very suspicious of earworm and so I like the idea of him being wagoned; but the speed with which this wagon was generated, with very little momentum for an alternate suspect, raises a red flag. Maybe he is a scum being bused by his partners; maybe he is innocent and scum have hopped on an easy bandwagon. The doubt is there in my mind, although it isn't strong enough to dissuade me from this wagon. Certainly before he is hammered he ought to be afforded a chance to address the case, claim, etc.

As for your idea and vote; I don't disagree with it, but there is not enough substance from PeregrineV to persuade me to try to wagon him just yet.

[Ironhead]

Claiming: Hider.

Ironhead is town.

Pending a counter-claim:

UNVOTE: EARWORM
VOTE: VEZOKPIRAKA (for poor placement and weak reasoning on the earworm wagon)

Anyone who counterclaims ought to also announce who he/she hid with last night and can thus confirm as town.

[Ironhead]

What do you want exaplined?

I would like for you to address the point Mask raised in #550. You followed earworm in voting Cobblerfone in your post #479; I note that you did not provide a justification at all (though you did "unvote," despite not having cast a vote yet today). Then in your post #535, you hop on the earworm wagon with the justification of "He is voting Cobblerfone hoping to get a bigger wagon going." This justification is patently absurd, because earworm was the first one to vote Cobblerfone; and

you

were the one to join him in voting Cobblerfone!

I've never played a Mafia game with you before, and so to my virgin eyes you appear to be obvious scum. But I get the impression that others in this game are hesitant to consider you scum instead of (young/inexperienced/foreign/unintelligent/mentally handicapped). Why would they think that? What have you done in the past to make Cobblerfone say "I don't feel like wasting a lynch on a six"?

[Ironhead]

Ironhead 476: WHY do you believe scum are more likely to join the wagon after the role reveal?

Scum would know he is not one of them, and therefore could assume he was telling the truth. They are thus presented with a convenient opportunity to knock off a PR.

[Ironhead]

My mindset was this.

Earworm has a growing wagon.
He is voting for someone else without giving too many reads probably bussing.
Then I unvoted and voted eraworm.

Does that make sense now?

Not to me, it doesn't:

1. His vote was cast before he had a "growing wagon."
2. By joining him in voting Cobblerfone, you established Cobblerfone was the largest wagon. You also did not give any reads in your vote.
3. How in the world do you get from "voting someone else without giving too many reads" to "probably bussing"?
4. Also, can't we assume that he would be voting "someone else"? Would it be more townish if he were voting himself?

[Ironhead]

Amrun: I am not seeing how jilynne is probtown, although I can see you are convinced. Please explain your case further.

Get a wagon going, this game is already very boring.

Why don't we wagon you? You still have not addressed these points:

My mindset was this.

Earworm has a growing wagon.
He is voting for someone else without giving too many reads probably bussing.
Then I unvoted and voted eraworm.

Does that make sense now?

Not to me, it doesn't:

1. His vote was cast before he had a "growing wagon."
2. By joining him in voting Cobblerfone, you established Cobblerfone was the largest wagon. You also did not give any reads in your vote.
3. How in the world do you get from "voting someone else without giving too many reads" to "probably bussing"?
4. Also, can't we assume that he would be voting "someone else"? Would it be more townish if he were voting himself?

[Ironhead]

That's L-1. Please refrain from hammering until PeregrineV can defend himself and claim.

...

vezokpiraka, what is it that PeregrineV said that you "don't see town saying something like"? Your vote looks awfully opportunistic -- as did your vote on earworm -- and I'm wondering just how convinced you really are about this wagon.

[Ironhead]

If the cops investigated themselves last night, they know which one is sane and which is not; and scum do not know the sanity of cops that are NK'd. Therefore, I think that if PeregrineV is lying then there will be a counterclaim. Pending this counterclaim, I urge his voters to unvote to prevent the hammer.

If there is no counterclaim, I think we must keep PeregrineV alive and demand his investigation results each day.

[Ironhead]

I'm unconvinced PeregrineV is worth lynching today; even if his case against Amrun is weak, it would behoove us to give him some latitude to demonstrate that he is the insane cop.

Vezokpiraka, on the other hand, appears to be a very good lynch. Would anyone care to join me in voting vezokpiraka?

[Ironhead]

@Ironhead: what about Pine instead? If you feel really strongly about Vezok I'd be down, but I'd prefer a Pine lynch right now

I'd rather lynch vezokpiraka. His last few posts have been very poor for the town; I get the impression that he isn't even trying to appear townish, and why should he if we don't vote him for his demonstrated scumminess? He floated along with the prevailing winds, voting Cobblerfone without reason, voting you (eliciting a PR claim), and voting PeregrineV (eliciting a PR claim). His last two vote switches have been very poorly justified. He clearly just wants to hop on the biggest bandwagon.

I don't have a town read on Pine, but I don't have a strong enough scum read on him to lynch him instead of vezokpiraka.

...

Amrun, why do you think vezokpiraka is town?

[Ironhead]

lynching him for not being anti-town seems a little counterproductive.

Why would we do that?

I would very much like to lynch him for not being pro-town, or not being anti-scum, or for being scummy; however you want to define his behavior. But I do not define his behavior as "not being anti-town."

His last few posts have been very poor for the town; I get the impression that he isn't even trying to appear townish,

Wait what? (the bolded)

How does that make sense? If I am town why would I need to appear townie. I am already town. Trying to appear townie is what scum do.

Yes, exactly. That is the elephant in the room -- trying to appear town is what scum ought to do, and you're not even trying. Even with this last post, you come across as being obv scum -- as Pine noted with regard to the fallacious reasoning you have demonstrated.

I am bemused at how difficult it is to get a wagon going on you and consider this to be a testament to your scumminess. DK was also a poor player, and it was easy to generate momentum on his wagon, in contradistinction to your wagon (or lack thereof thus far). This reinforces my suspicions that you are scum being protected by partners.

[Ironhead]

I want to hear what you think about appearing town. Where do townies fit in with that theory? What should townies be doing that's different from what scum does acting town? I'm not disagreeing with it, but I want to hear your personal stance.

Townies don't need to "act" town; they have the advantage of authenticity, so their actions should speak for themselves. Scum must try to blend in and feign authenticity. If they do not, they immediately exude their scumminess, as it appears vezokpiraka is doing.

I may be wrong -- I was wrong about earworm -- but we won't know until vezokpiraka is forced to defend himself.

I'm not sure who vezokpiraka's partners might be -- although Amrun does jump out as a candidate -- and I don't want to stumble into the pitfall of guessing scum teams before anyone flips scum. My suspicion of him being protected is in the general sense in that (nearly) everyone is ignoring the case on vezokpiraka (except me and Surye so far). Everyone else's inaction allows scum inaction to blend in.

[Ironhead]

chkflip: what is your opinion of vezokpiraka?

Mod: V/LA until Tuesday, 5 July.

[Ironhead]

Let me understand. I am scum , because I don't act townie, but townies don't have to act townie because they are authentic.

Your perceived scumminess is not related to "because [you] don't act townie;" your scumminess derives from your poor play in general, including shameless and unprincipled vote-hopping today. The way you are acting reinforces this scum-read; not because you are acting unauthentic (like a scum trying to appear town), but because you are acting like an authentic scum (like a scum who doesn't care that he is acting scummy).

[Ironhead]

Ironheadn have you checked out vezok's other games?

No. How does his vote-hopping in this one compare to previous games where he was town? How does it compare to when he was scum?

[Ironhead]

Vote count:

chkflip (6) - Amrun, Nocmen, jilynne1991, earworm, Cobblerfone, Surye
vezokprika (4) - Ironhead, PeregrineV, sorasgoof, chkflip
TheMask (1) - vezokprika
jilynne1991 (1) - TheMask
PeregrineV (1) - Pine

chkflip is at L-1. Deadline is looming; I recommend chkflip claim now.

I think that the dichotomy of today's wagons will be good for the town. I much prefer a vezokpiraka lynch, but I don't think it is in the cards today.

[Ironhead]

Can someone please explain to me why Peregrine was killed last night? Presumably he was targeted by scum, and Amrun was the SK target (as the SK has no compelling reason to kill the insane cop, right?); but wasn't Peregrine the obvious choice for the remaining bodyguard to protect? Either the scum ought to have avoided targeting him just because of the WIFOM risk that he was being protected, or they would have targeted him and killed the bodyguard instead.

I suspect that the scum killed the other bodyguard earlier, and thus knew they could target Peregrine without being deflected by the bodyguard.

...

In other news, I contend that yesterday's voting pattern gives us good reason to lynch vezokpiraka. So again,

VOTE: VEZOKPIRAKA

[Ironhead]

Yep I checked something.

I bodyguarded amrun last night.

I have no idea why is she dead.

I will try to put aside my incredulity and complete disbelief for one moment to ask: Why would the bodyguard protect Amrun, instead of: PeregrineV (claimed insane cop), earworm (claimed hider), or Ironhead (confirmed as town by claimed hider)?

[Ironhead]

What's the point in saving the hider?

Because he hid with someone last night and can thus announce to us someone else who is confirmed town.

Anyway I still got blocked so it doesn't matter.

Wow. Are you saying that not only did you inexplicably protect Amrun (putting your life on the line for someone who is an unknown) instead of protecting the insane cop, hider, or confirmed-town; but also, for some odd reason the role-blocker chose to target you (another unknown) instead of role-blocking the insane cop or hider?

I don't think the case on you could get any stronger. I contend that it is now incumbent upon each player to weigh in on the case on you:

@everyone: do you think vezokpiraka is scummy? Why or why not? (any "no" answer must necessarily defend his ludicrous claim as well).

[Ironhead]

The only one I could see blocking me is jily.

Others could've blocked me just because shit.

I think it's jily though.

This post gives jil's replacement a lot of town credit, as vezok is so obviously scum. However, I agree with Mask that we should wait to hear from earworm and any other possible PRs before hammering.

[Ironhead]

This game is too quiet. We need to get some replacements in so we can lynch vezokpiraka.

[Ironhead]

Vezok, if you tell us who your scum partners are we promise to lynch you last.

[Ironhead]

GM. Let's get this game going... do we need prods? Replacements? What are we doing to get through this day?

[Ironhead]

I'm sure you're going to miss a lot of activity. Expect to have to wade through ten or twelve pages of walls to catch up.

[Ironhead]

Deadline is in two days. Vezokpiraka is at L-1. Can someone confirm that they will be online to hammer before then?

[Ironhead]

Not yet -- would like to give earworm's replacement an opportunity to confirm someone as town. I appreciate the offer, though.

[Ironhead]

I don't see any reason why a no-lynch would be good for us. We don't know if the sane cop is still alive; if so, we could argue that we could wait for investigation results to be revealed. If not, all a no-lynch does is forfeit one of our few opportunities to lynch a scum. Since we don't know, we cannot take the chance. We must lynch today.

[Ironhead]

Same thing we did before.

VOTE: VEZOKPIRAKA

[Ironhead]

Yes, of course. You are a terrible liar. You claimed to be the bodyguard, who inexplicably protected Amrun last night instead of the hider, insane cop, or confirmed town; but whose protection was blocked by a role-blocker who inexplicably targeted you instead of the hider or insane cop. Your story is ludicrous.

[Ironhead]

Has the whole town gone bonkers? Vezokpiraka is scum! How did we go from an inexorable bandwagon against obv-scum to a dispersal of votes and suspicions?

There is nothing in what the GM said that explains why vezokpiraka, as bodyguard, would protect Amrun instead of the insane cop/hider/conf-town; nor is there anything that would explain why the role-blocker would target him instead of insane cop or hider. That was the case against him all along! Not whether or not the GM sent out a PM.

Vote vezokpiraka please!

[Ironhead]

I admit to missing out one of my night action PMs

This is what Vezok is talking about. That's good enough for me.

Wow. If this is

good enough

for you, then you are fully invested in vezokpiraka -- if he flips scum, then you are obviously his partner. Agree or disagree?

[Ironhead]

vezokpiraka is scum. Lynch him please.

Also, please remember that with only 8 left alive, today could be LYLO. In case you were considering not voting for vezokpiraka, who is scum.

[Ironhead]

@The Mask: Please change your vote to vezokpiraka. We will lynch Cobblerfone tomorrow, but today we cannot spread our votes out.

Please do not worry about Cobblerfone riding your jock, we know you are not scum and so you will not be lynched.

[Ironhead]

Vezok is scum. Let's not give him town-cred for also being stupid. Stupid scum acts just as scummy as stupid town.

Cobblerfone is very likely to be his partner.

[Ironhead]

I'm saying he said something that made no sense (sending an action and being role blocked) BEFORE the mod admitted an action didn't go through. There were 2 deaths, so he's not SK pretending to be RB'd BG.

He said something that made no sense; but it wasn't "sending an action and being role blocked."

That

would have been plausible (if the role-blocker had a reason to block him). What he said that made no sense was why he would

put his life on the line

(because bodyguard dies in place of the person being protected, if scum target the protected player) for Amrun; when he could have been guarding the insane cop, or the hider, or the confirmed-town. Nothing that the mod said explains this.

Stop ignoring the mod confirmed situation.

What you call "the mod confirmed situation" is:

I admit to missing out one of my night action PMs

This doesn't confirm anything. You apparently read this to mean "I admit to failing to execute bodyguard order for Amrun as sent to me by vezokpiraka." I read this to mean "I admit to missing out one of my night action PMs; but I am not telling you who it involved, or what action, or even if it was a case of me not executing a night action or me not sending a PM; and even if it is a case of me not executing a night action, I'm not telling you if it was a case of me not receiving a PM (ie, the player's fault) or me not executing the properly-sent PM (ie, my fault)." Surye, I find your leap of faith surprising.

@vezokpiraka: What was it about Amrun that you found so townish that you would put your life on the line protecting him?

[Ironhead]

How would he know of all games, of all nights, THIS NIGHT the mod made a mistake. You're the one making a leap. Pretending to BG and they dieing is not a gambit because you could have never seen that mod mistake happening.

He doesn't need to predict the GM making a mistake; he knows he can claim the identity of anyone he and his partners have killed. He also knows whether or not there is a role-blocker in the game. You are acting as if the only problem with vezokpiraka's claim (an entirely unprovoked claim, I might add) is that it didn't go through. That wasn't the problem, as a role-blocker would explain that.

Surye: why do you suppose vezokpiraka bothered to make his claim?

@mask: vezokpiraka is scum. Cobblerfone is very, very likely to be scum. Everyone else ranges from town to null.

[Ironhead]

vezokpiraka is scum. Cobblerfone is very, very likely to be his partner. If we do not lynch the former today and the latter tomorrow, the town will lose. You know I am confirmed-town and my interests are the town's best interests. I would not lead you astray. Vote vezokpiraka for great justice.

[Ironhead]

So who's it going to be? Mask, Kcda, or Vezok?

Vezok. Mask is town. And how did Kcda become one of the top three options?

[Ironhead]

Why do you think he is the SK?

[Ironhead]

So much so that you would vote him instead of vezokpiraka?

[Ironhead]

Anyone else want a fast wagon on Cobbler before deadline?

Cobblerfone only seems scum because of his relationship with vezokpiraka, who is confirmed scum. Let's lynch vezojkpiraka first, then lynch Cobblerfone tomorrow. If we lynch Cobblerfone first and it turns out that he isn't scum (low probability, but possible as he is not confirmed scum like vezokpiraka) then we may yet lose. We must lynch the confirmed scum to give us some breathing room from LYLO.

[Ironhead]

Hahahahahaha. Confirmed? That's rich. You may be town, but you've lost any credibility. Oh, and pulling the "I am town, my analysis is right" card? A joke.

You disappoint me. I think I have been laying enough hints for everyone to pick up; but I see subtlety does not work on some people.

the deadline is looming heavily.

Unfortunately. I am reluctant to claim, but I doubt I will survive the night (due to the not-so-subtle hints I have been dropping) and I do not want scum claiming my role.

/claim sane cop

Night 1 result: Ironhead is innocent
Night 2 result: Amrun is guilty

Now, go back and see what I see: look at how Amrun (and before him, Monk and Quilford) interacts with vezokpiraka and Mask, so that you can see that Mask is town and vezokpiraka is scum (look especially at Day 2, after earworm claimed hider and the momentum was up for grabs). Based on the way Cobblerfone has been playing dumb today, I contend that he is very likely to be vezokpiraka's partner and the last scum.

You are making vague guesses based on your reads of the way players are posting. It is an inexact art with low probability of success, and we cannot afford failure. Please, follow my guidance and vote vezokpiraka for victory.

I doubt there is a bodyguard left (if there was, vezokpiraka wouldn't claim it today) but if I am wrong then please protect me tonight.

[Ironhead]

Well...if vezok is BG, let's give him a chance to confirm it in a blaze of glory? Lynch Cobbler today, and auto-lynch vezok if he's alive tomorrow and Iron isnt?

This town is fail

UNVOTE: VEZOKPIRAKA
VOTE: COBBLERFONE

the viable scumwagon.

[Ironhead]

I'll say! you idiots are on the wrong wagon!

why is mask town?

Re-read Day 2. Note how at various times, Amrun, vezokpiraka, and Cobblerfone try to indict Mask. Also note that at various times they rate Mask a null or town tell. The votes on Mask came when it was convenient to shift the momentum toward someone else* -- there were two unsuccessful mislynch wagons (earworm and PeregrineV) and then the successful mislynch (chkflip). When the momentum on the first two died, there was a scum ready to cast momentum toward Mask; and both times it failed, and another mislynch wagon emerged that they could shamelessly ride on.

*Post #703 is a great example (be sure to read 696, 698, 699, 700, and 702 first to understand the momentum shift).

I'm town. Vezok is the bodyguard. If we can't agree between Mask, Vezok or Kc, how about low-profile Sora? Or anyone besides the three people I'm sure are town? (me, Iron, Vezok)

This post is very, very anti-town:

1. How do you know vezokpiraka is the bodyguard? Because of his unprovoked claim? Surely you don't instantly believe every claim you hear?
2. Why would we settle for a lynch when we are so close to LYLO? Your comment of "...how about... anyone" supports scum strategy. If you have a scum suspect, you vote him. Clearly, you do not have a scum suspect (how quickly you surrendered your principles on Mask!) -- you know who else don't have scum suspects? Answer: scum.

So you think I said I Bodyguarded my scum buddy instead of the confirmed insane cop?

Yeah no.

Methinks this is a scum slip.

First of all, I obviously don't think you body-guarded anyone. I accuse you of being scum and not a bodyguard, as you claim; I'm not accusing you of being some sort of scum/bodyguard hybrid. So

what I think

is you endured a lot of suspicion and close-calls with regard to wagons yesterday; and when Amrun (whom I knew to be scum) died and I put more pressure on you at the beginning of D-3, you decided to claim bodyguard (which you could safely do if you knew the bodyguard had been NK'd). The problem is that you couldn't just claim bodyguard -- as D-2 showed, claims are problematic for the claimer, and besides, you didn't even have a reason to claim. So you made yourself an excuse to claim by claiming that your protection order didn't go through (a real bodyguard wouldn't announce this, by the way -- he would just assume he was role-blocked, or if anything, he would PM the GM to confirm he was role-blocked).

Second of all: I'm not saying you bodyguarded your scum buddy instead of the confirmed insane cop; I'm saying you're scum pretending to be the bodyguard.

But you're not claiming to be the bodyguard protecting the confirmed insane cop, either!

You claimed to have protected Amrun.

Did you get confused, or did I catch you in a scumslip?

[Ironhead]

Then again...I don't know if that directly works, if SK is still alive, then SK kills Iron, while vezok (if scum) kills...no I think that still works?

Wait. What? If SK is still alive they must've killed Amrun right? If Amrun was the SK then the mafia didn't target a confirmed innocent or power role. Point is, tonight isn't going to be predictable either way.

Jeez Just stop protecting vezokpiraka. Obviously, mafia targeted PeregrineV last night and Amrun was killed by the SK. Tonight will be predictable, and if vezopiraka is still alive tomorrow he gets lynched.

[Ironhead]

The mod admitted to missing a night action. Both kills went through. You received a guilty on Amrun. Amrun couldn't have been the bodyguard. Peregrine's a cop. As far as I know the Hider went AWOL since before night started and probably didn't send in an action altogether. (Thus not missed.) That leaves bodyguard. And nobody has counterclaimed.

And by your logic vezokpiraka is confirmed town, right? Let's take a look at this and see if we can find any holes.

And nobody has counterclaimed.

This is irrelevant, as scum would know to claim a role they've killed (incidentally, bodyguard role is twice as likely to be NK'd as any other role because they die when they are targeted

and

when the player they're protecting is targeted). Scum would not claim a role if there was a chance that someone out there would counterclaim.

The mod admitted to missing a night action.

Did he? I thought he admitted to missing a night action

PM

. In fact, that's what it says right here:

I admit to missing out one of my night action PMs

I think that if he meant that he missed a night action, he would have said that he missed a night action. Since he said that he missed a night action PM, I think that means he missed a night action PM.

BAs far as I know the Hider went AWOL since before night started and probably didn't send in an action altogether.

You're right! Earworm probably didn't send in an action altogether, which would comport perfectly with what the GM said!

Cobblerfone, nothing of what you have said in your strenuous defense of vezokpiraka explains why he would claim bodyguard, or why he would protect Amrun instead of Peregrine/earworm/Ironhead, or how to explain his scum-slip in #919. If you had townie interests at heart, you would be duly suspicious of vezokpiraka and would be inclined to consider him a suspect. Your defense of him clearly marks you as his partner. That is why you will be lynched today.

cobbler is town FOR FUCKS SAKE.

GET OFF HIM NOW.

I can see you are quite passionate about this. Can you explain exactly why you think he is town? Bear in mind that we know of exactly three roles that would want scum to stay alive: the two scum, and the SK (because if the town lynches the two known scum the SK loses; SK wants town to keep mislynching while he NKs scum on the side). So Cobblerfone and vezopiraka's protestations of innocence make sense; but why would you be so adamant about Cobblerfone's innocence and Mask's guilt? Can you demonstrate to the rest of us in a way that doesn't make you appear to be the SK?

[Ironhead]

Last night I realized Ironhead could theoretically still be scum. Depending on how the mod answers this next question:

@mod: Can the hider be roleblocked? Also, can you tell us what night the PM was missed?

You're right! Earworm probably didn't send in an action altogether, which would comport perfectly with what the GM said!

If he didn't send in an action how was it missed? How is it a mistake he had to admit to?

You ignored this most important part of my post (coincidentally, vezokpiraka also has a problem with ignoring arguments and questions that could indict him). Please address it before asking me further questions, as otherwise it appears you are trying to re-direct away from the most damning elements of the argument against you and vezokpiraka:

Cobblerfone, nothing of what you have said in your strenuous defense of vezokpiraka explains why he would claim bodyguard, or why he would protect Amrun instead of Peregrine/earworm/Ironhead, or how to explain his scum-slip in #919. If you had townie interests at heart, you would be duly suspicious of vezokpiraka and would be inclined to consider him a suspect. Your defense of him clearly marks you as his partner. That is why you will be lynched today.

[Ironhead]

Deadline is 24 hours away. More Cobblerfone votes please.

[Ironhead]

A no-lynch would be bad -- I think we can all agree on that.

Between Mask and Cobblerfone, Cobblerfone is far more likely to be scum. This case is a function of his unquestioning and uncritical support of vezokpiraka -- the sort of support you normally only see from someone who knows with 100% certainty of someone's role (ie, scum or cop). We know Cobblerfone is not a cop, as PeregrineV flipped as the insane one and I claimed the sane one (even if you disbelieve my claim, Cobblerfone did not counterclaim so he cannot be the cop).

Furthermore, his support of vezokpiraka is damning because of vezokpiraka's obvious scumminess. I sympathize with him and Amrun in that no one should be cursed with vezokpiraka as a scum-partner, as in this game he has proven to be an anchor, dragging Cobblerfone down with him -- truly the worst kind of scum partner, especially as it was done after Cobblerfone demonstrated support for him (tactically smart decision, so close to LYLO) and therefore could not bus him -- the obvious strategy when a scum-partner implodes.

The case on Mask revolves around perceived poor posting, and the hypothesis that the repeated attempts by Amrun et al to get him lynched on D-2 was busing. It is a weak case when compared to the acute argument on vezokpiraka and Cobblerfone.

As Mask won't be lynched today (and ought not be lynched, as the town would almost certainly lose without killing a scum today), and it is too late to run up a wagon on vezokpiraka, the best course of action is to lynch Cobblerfone today and vezokpiraka tomorrow. Thus: more Cobblerfone votes please.

[Ironhead]

i don't think vezok is scum.

does that make me scum?

No. You think vezokpiraka is the serial killer. It is a credible conclusion to draw.

However, I will note that you had the misfortune of replacing into Pine's slot and are carrying around the suspicions that he generated. I think that you are the most likely to be the real serial killer -- a conclusion supported by Pine's words and actions (such as yesterday's quickhammer), as well as your own intransigence regarding lynching Cobblerfone. I don't think you have anything to fear for at least another day, as the town desperately needs to kill scum before worrying about the SK -- which means the town path to victory lies in lynching Cobblerfone and vezokpiraka over the next two days, and then lynching the SK. Over these next two days, if you can convince enough people that you aren't the SK, you may yet win -- but remember, you are defending Pine's words and actions as well as your own.

[Ironhead]

Oh crap I just found out something.

I'm going to die tomorrow to save ironhead if the scum kill him which I see no reason not to.

True -- if you are really the bodyguard, then you won't have to worry about us mislynching you because you will have an opportunity to put your role to good use and die for the town. However, what I predict happening is I will die tonight, and then tomorrow you will claim that you protected someone else because of the WIFOM chance that the scum would not target me. Obviously, scum need me dead pronto, and so they will target me whether they know there is a bodyguard there or not -- so there is no WIFOM. If you are still alive tomorrow, you get lynched.

Now please pull your head out of your ass and explain your scum-slip in #919.