Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

[havingfitz]

OK...this is a VCA that builds on my gut feel following my earlier catchup post. The vote counts below have confirmed town (and myself...my VCA...my POV) as bold green. Confirmed scum as bold red. People I consider town (ATM) are normal green and those I suspect are in normal red. Time of posts is EST.

---

Day 1

Umbrage Post #11 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:51 pm

Empking

(3) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

neil1113

,

DeityKabuto

DeityKabuto

(3) -

HezLucky

,

Sloth

,

Caboose

Twistedspoon

(3) –

Regfan

,

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

HezLucky

(1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(1) -

Empking

Not Voting:

cjdrum

.

This is one of the earlier vote counts. In it we have three wagons tied at 3. Two of these wagons are on confirmed town (Emp and Twisted) so I believe it is a safe assumption to hypothsize there are scum on both the town wagons. cj is not voting at this time which puts more emphasis on the players who are on the town wagons.

Umbrage Post #17 » Wed May 04, 2011 11:26 am

Empking

(5) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

neil1113

,

DeityKabuto

,

cjdrum

,

HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) -

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

,

Caboose

DeityKabuto

(2) -

Sloth

,

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(2) -

Regfan

,

Empking

Here the Emp wagon has been joined by confirmed scum cj and my town read Hez (who leaves the DK wagon). Of my town reads...Hez is the one I have the least confidence in. ATT however he is firmly entrenched in 5th place on my suspect list.

Umbrage Post #18 » Fri May 06, 2011 10:49 am

Empking

(5) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

neil1113

,

DeityKabuto

,

cjdrum

,

HezLucky

Twistedspoon

(3) -

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

,

Caboose

DeityKabuto

(2) -

Sloth

,

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(2) -

Regfan

,

Empking

The wagons haven’t changed for a few days at this point. This was the vote count status when Magna stated that he thought 4 of the 5 scum would be on the Emp wagon if Emp was town. Well....Emp was town. Assuming Magna is not confessing his alignment I believe he is insinutating that EVERYONE on the Emp wagon aside from him is scum. If Magna believes everyone on the Emp wagon (aside from him is scum)..that would mean he only thinks one of the people off the Emp wagon are scum. Based on the fact he went from Emp to Twisted...I deduce he has town reads on zMM, Wicked, Caboose, Sloth and Regfan.

Umbrage Post #21 » Mon May 09, 2011 11:58 am

Twistedspoon

(7) -

zMuffinMan

,

Wickedestjr

,

Caboose

,

Sloth

,

MagnaofIllusion

,

Regfan

,

DeityKabuto

(HAMMER!)

Empking

(1) -

cjdrum

DeityKabuto

(1) -

Twistedspoon

neil1113

(1) -

Empking

HezLucky

(1) -

neil1113

MagnaofIllusion

(1) –

HezLucky

This is the last votecount of Day 1. I typically would be surprised if a majority of a scum team were on a Day 1 lynch. The fact that there are two scum teams makes this harder to figure out (for me at least) so I don’t know what the odds say. With scum consisting of teams of 2 wolves and 3 mafia, I do not think it is unreasonable to assume there are at least 1 wolf and 2 mafia on the mislynch. This is supported by the fact confirmed scum cj was not on the mislynch. Of the four other players not on the Twisted mislynch, there are confirmed town Emp & Twisted. This leaves neil and Hez as potential scum NOT on the mislynch.

---

Day 2

Umbrage Post #28 » Wed May 18, 2011 4:02 pm
Vote Count:

HezLucky

(2) -

zMuffinMan

,

Regfan

Sloth

(2) -

LynchMePls

,

cjdrum

DeityKabuto

(1) -

neil1113

MagnaofIllusion

(1) -

HezLucky

neil1113

(1) -

DeityKabuto

cjdrum

(2) -

Wickedestjr

,

MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting:

Sloth

.

This is the 4th votecount of Day 2. Wicked is the first to vote cj and followed shortly by Magna who has been on DK with neil most of Day 2. I need to look over what precipitated the Magna vote on DK and his change to cj. Also of note, Sloth has confirmed town (LMP) and scum (cj) on his wagon.

Umbrage Post #29 » Fri May 20, 2011 6:25 pm
Vote Count:

cjdrum

(5) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

Wickedestjr

,

DeityKabuto

,

LynchMePls

,

neil1113

(One vote away from lynch!)

HezLucky

(2) -

zMuffinMan

,

Regfan

Sloth

(1) -

cjdrum

zMuffinMan

(1) -

HezLucky

Not Voting:

Sloth

.

This is the votecount prior to cj’s self hammer. I think it’s a safe bet to assume that one or both wolves are one this wagon (as from their POV they are either getting scum or a mislynch out of a cj lynch) and given cj’s questionable play...I think the possibility exists that there is at least one mafia partner bussing him.

---

Day 3

Despite early D2 suspicions towards towards DK, Magna has decided I am the best choice to vote on Day 3. Since everyone should agree that it is in town’s (and mafia’s) best interest to aim for werewolves, I would like to hear Magna’s basis of voting me and how he has determined that I am a wolf (assuming that he does think that). I also find it interesting that DK...who suspected neil for most of Day 2 (prior to voting cj) and most of Day 3, has moved his vote to Regfan (??) who coincidentally has had his vote on neil all of Day 3 (as well as for much of Day 1).

---

In summary, I think the VCA above supports scum among Magna, DK, neil, and zMM. I think there is a high likelihood the werewolves are among Magna, DK, and neil…while I believe zMM is mafia. The day three activity has me thinking there is a link between DK and neil (they both voted each other Day 2 but hopped off to lynch cj) There has also been quite a lot of discussion/suspicion from neil pointed at DK, throughout the game but especially on Day 3 (though no vote). I also found neil’s post 530 to be very interesting:

ISOing CJ was to no avail, as my suspicions brought me with 4 possible suspects of his partners (which obviously is wrong, as there can only be 2 partners of his.) They are:

Hez,

Deity

, Sloth, and

DK

.

However, I'm not so much concerned with trying to find his partners, as I am trying to find the werewolves. Considering Mafia are just useless, and it's the Wolves that do the killing, it'd be nice to try and lynch one of them. Considering the circumstances, I'll eliminate VI

Deity

, and easy wagon'd Sloth from my main suspects and focus in on Hez and

DK

. I'll be ISOing each of them individually, and posting what I find (or don't find) in these ISO's.

He repeatedly lists DK twice (see my bolding in the quote above) among his “4 possible suspects.” I think neil has DK a bit too much on the mind. I think they are the same alignment and I think that alignment is wolf. This would leave Magna as possible mafia bussing and zMM as his partner.

Since the target is wolves, my vote goes to…

VOTE: DeityKabuto

[havingfitz]

EBWOP: This would leave Magna as possible mafia bussing

cj

and zMM as his partner.

[Regfan]

Attempting to solidify or push a case based around your town-reads being correct is meaningless if you don't explain your town-reads in greater detail.

[havingfitz]

4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and

I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie

.

Bold is mine. What?

[havingfitz]

My town reads are mostly POE coupled with the fact everyone can't be scum. Think of it as a top to bottom scumlist with Hez, you and Wicked (not necessarily in that order) at the bottom of my list, ie most town. And I don't make a habit of justifying town reads but it does fit into my assessments in my VCA.

[Regfan]

4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and

I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie

.

Bold is mine. What?

It's meant to read Neil, not Cjdrum should be obvious in the context it's in.

My town reads are mostly POE coupled with the fact everyone can't be scum. Think of it as a top to bottom scumlist with Hez, you and Wicked (not necessarily in that order) at the bottom of my list, ie most town. And I don't make a habit of justifying town reads but it does fit into my assessments in my VCA.

So your town-reads are based on your scum-reads and you're using your PoE town-reads to reassure yourself of your scum reads through your VCA? You're essentially using circular reasoning to explain and maintain your reads.

[HezLucky]

Regfan's aggressive pushing of havingfitz is noted. Havingfitz's townreads are very, very solid. Don't lose the game for everyone, regfan.

Unfortunately, I myself have no confidence in my reads outside of Magna and Muffin, who are both assuredly scum. I would like to lynch one of them today, and it will be hard to convince me to go somewhere else with my vote.

[HezLucky]

...actually now that I look at his list I think havingfitz has figured out the game.

the four remaining scum are DK, neil, Magna and Muffin.

Just a matter of putting them in their proper scumgroups.

[havingfitz]

4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and

I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie

.

Bold is mine. What?

It's meant to read Neil, not Cjdrum should be obvious in the context it's in.

My town reads are mostly POE coupled with the fact everyone can't be scum. Think of it as a top to bottom scumlist with Hez, you and Wicked (not necessarily in that order) at the bottom of my list, ie most town. And I don't make a habit of justifying town reads but it does fit into my assessments in my VCA.

So your town-reads are based on your scum-reads and you're using your PoE town-reads to reassure yourself of your scum reads through your VCA? You're essentially using circular reasoning to explain and maintain your reads.

Well..the CJ thing could be a freudian slip of some kind and I did not want to assume you thought neil was town (since he is someone I suspect).

You don't have to accept my VCA thoughts if you don't want. Tell me this...what are your reads on Hez, Wicked, and yourself? If at least two of them are town reads...then you are basically in agreemenet with me...if all three of them are town or leaning town, then WTH are you busting my balls for? Was there anything in my post 610 that you did agree with or that might have been made apparent to you? Even something that might have eluded me?

[havingfitz]

Hez, FYI...I'm naturally leery of those who agree with me too much and I'm not confident enough in my abilities to assume I have pegged the last 4 scum. It justs makes sense IMO at the moment. I can't see DK being town but if he did flip that way (by some miracle), and coupled with the next NK, then I would have to look things over again....and you would move up into contention

[DeityKabuto]

Claim: Vanilla Town

havingfitz, and everyone else who votes me after this is scum.

[zMuffinMan]

Don't ever change, DK. Your posts always bring a smile to my face.

[zMuffinMan]

@hf,

OK, as much time and effort as that must have taken you, your #600 is just a means of looking for data that supports your presupposed conclusions. You could swap any of your scum reads and town reads and still find ways to make the significance of you VCA support your conclusions.

You never did end up elaborating on your scum read on me. This was the last you wrote of it

I honestly do not recall the reason atm. I know as I was catching up and posting thoughts on various posts your name was one that pinged my radar more than those I get a town feel from.

Or is it just PoE for you, now?

[Umbrage]

Vote Count:

neil1113 (3) - Regfan, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto
HezLucky (1) - zMuffinMan
havingfitz (1) - MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion (1) - HezLucky
DeityKabuto (1) - havingfitz

Not Voting: neil1113

[Wickedestjr]

I'm back. I thought I would have internet at the place I stayed at, but I didn't, so I am still behind. However, it doesn't look like you guys posted

that

much while I was gone, so it shouldn't take me much longer to catch up than it should have.

[HezLucky]

Hez, FYI...I'm naturally leery of those who agree with me too much and I'm not confident enough in my abilities to assume I have pegged the last 4 scum. It justs makes sense IMO at the moment. I can't see DK being town but if he did flip that way (by some miracle), and coupled with the next NK, then I would have to look things over again....and you would move up into contention

It would make a hell of a story. I like it when games are wrapped up.

But as long as we lynch Magna/Muffin today I could care less about your read on me.

[Wickedestjr]

Page 23 responses... Very big post.

Spoiler: Regfan

Although stating reads is more a player-tell than an allignment related tell in a game where there's only one allignment with a night-kill players with Evil Sheep or Werewolve allignments would attempt to not stand out as much as possible, attempting to push a case strongly isn't the way to do that. Although LMP stated a list of reads he never truly pushed a lynch, he rather stood back and showed intent to lurker-lynch. I'll attempt to explain it simplier:

1. Evilsheep would refrain from strongly bussying Cjdrum for one reason, that reason being that leading on a scum lynch increases the likelihood that player gets night-killed. This would mean that Evilsheep would lose two members with no gain.

2. Werewolves would refrain from strongly pushing a lynch in the manner you did on Cjdrum for two reasons, one being if they do indeed get a scum lynched later in the game they're going to have to explain why they're still alive. The second reason being if Cjdrum flipped town the Evilsheep would have near-majority of the numbers in the game and would happilly push towards you with the town for causing a msylnch in such a position.

A. Maybe I'm misreading this, but you haven't answered my question. I understand how you would find pushing strongly for a lynch to 'scream town'. However, you said my post where I gave my reads 'screamed town'. Why is that?

B. I am concerned with your reasons for believing that a Werewolf wouldn't strongly push for a lynch. Reason 1 is kind of weak and basically WIFOM, right? Reason 2 doesn't make any sense to me- can you explain it in more detail?

Simple. There are few town-players left alive, although scumhunting to find the scum is needed what is also needed is to work out who you believe the other town members are to avoid and protect them from getting lynched.

So, just to be clear, you want to know my town reads so

we

can protect them from getting lynched?

His vote on Sloth seemed opportunistic due to the fact he never stated any real suspicion towards Sloth earlier, especially due to the fact he DID state suspicion towards alternate players.

By opportunistic do you mean 'going for the easy target'? ...because he was only the second vote on the Sloth bandwagon.

Spoiler: zMuffinMan

Right... You're just long-winded and it was a misinterpretation if that was the actual point you were trying to get across.

But the fact that you're calling it a misrep is a joke.

Your point is still invalid, because I'm not saying you're scum because of the link, I'm saying it's a link.

*sigh* You are

still

misinterprating/misrepping my point. You

aren't

calling me scum because of HL's random vote for me. I understand that. You see the random vote as a possible link between us. I understand that. My point is that I think calling HL's random vote for me a link is weak evidence. Furthermore, I find it hypocritical how you questioned me for using, what you believe, is weak evidence. Does it make sense now?

It was perfectly logical, because only a VI-werewolf or a really-arrogant-werewolf would let the seer get a check off. Gambling like that isn't worth it just on the off-chance that you may be able to push a lynch on him the next day.

You were making a big deal out of it and calling him suspicious for doing it when there was no scum motivation behind that suggestion.

First of all, what do you think of the game I referenced? The player that left the cop alive in that game was neither a VI nor arrogant.

Secondly, yes, there is scum motivation for saying what MoI said: getting the seer lynched if they survive to day 2.

These explanations hold no water. DK wasn't going to be lynched. Neither was MoI. His votes were useless.

You are really tunnel-visioned. Why don't you read the friggin thread? There were many players that suspected DK. And why don't you learn how to argue your points. Several of our arguments have followed the same pattern:

zMuffinMan: [insert point]
Wickedestjr: That point is invalid because [insert rational argument].
zMuffinMan: Is not!

You keep saying that I'm wrong but haven't explained why my points are wrong and haven't defended your PoV at all. Why, as town, would you do that? There

is

no town motivation. You are scum that

can't

explain your points.

Explain your points instead of continuously insisting I'm wrong.

263 - MOI declares DK 100% VI and is willing to lynch him if necessary...though it seems policy-like.

This seems like an odd comment considering you also suspect DK.

Also, havingfitz, two questions:

1. Do you have anything to say regarding my last comment directed to you in post 576?
2. Do you think werewolves will be trying to hunt for mafia right now? Why?

Can someone please make a case on me and stop saying you're so certain I'm scum? I'm town for the freaking record, and it's pissing me off now. Three of you now, call me scum, place your vote on me, and I've yet to see a single point / case made that wasn't about CJ. You three (Reg, Wicked, and Deity) are officially making this game no fun. Please for the love of all that is holy, SCUM HUNT. If you were, you wouldn't be voting me because I'm not scum. Good god you three piss me off.

neil1113, I have brought up points against you which you have ignored. Why not respond to posts 469 and 545? Until then, don't include me in the group of players that hasn't justified their position on the bandwagon. Also, at the time of this post,

you

weren't and aren't doing hardly any scumhunting.

Also, I am responding to this outside of the spoiler so that it doesn't go unnoticed:

Again, I'm not misrepping anything. A link is a link.

In that case, you really need to learn how to scumhunt, because this point is just terrible. Also, it is suspicious how, rather than convince me of your PoV, you simply try to justify it by saying 'a link is a link'. Here's what happened:

Twistedspoon (in confirmation stage): I think neil is a good target for an RVS bandwagon.
Umbrage: The game begins.
Twistedspoon: VOTE: HezLucky. (random vote)
Twistedspoon: [insert suspicious comments]
Wickedestjr: VOTE: Twistedspoon. My reasons: 1.) [insert point against TS here] 2.) [insert another point against TS here] 3.) He also random voted somebody with no votes when, in the confirmation stage, he expressed interest in starting an RVS bandwagon.
zMuffinMan: There's a link between Wicked and Hez. Wicked voted TS for random voting Hez.

How does this point make ANY sense at all? He sees a link between me and Hez because I attacked Twistedspoon for three reasons and only

ONE

of which revolved around his

RANDOM VOTE

. Keep in mind that the point regarding TS's random vote had

NOTHING

to do with the fact that he voted Hez specifically. Furthermore, zMuffinMan, despite using this weak point against me, has accused me of using weak evidence.

@MoI, Regfan & havingfitz-

What do you guys think of this point from zMM? Also, notice how, rather than convince me of his PoV, he simply tries to justify it by saying 'a link is a link'. What do you think of that?

That would make sense, the only thing that worries me is that if we do indeed manage to lynch a werewolf today they have less incentive to shoot towards the Evil Sheep as leaving them alive would leave more suspects for town to lynch towards.

Keep in mind that if we lynch a Mafia today, the werewolves could win by the end of tomorrow. However, if we lynch a werewolf today, the earliest scum of any faction could win is at the end of day 5. Personally, I don't want to go to MyLo (mislynch being anybody apart from a werewolf) tomorrow.

[Wickedestjr]

@HezLucky- Why do you think zMM is a werewolf as opposed to evil sheep?

[HezLucky]

Magna has spent the entire game planning lynches, and I don't think he would do this without the ability to kill (too much uncertainty -- it would be futile to try).

I also think that Muffin and Magna are on the same side, given how scummy each of them are individually and teh fact that neither of them seem to suspect aech other at all.

[havingfitz]

@DK...why did you "Claim:"? <headshake>

There are no town PR's remaining so you are either scum or town. Unless you were considering claiming one of the scum roles a Vanilla town claim is silly, unnecessary, and odd.

@zMM...the votecount wasn't assessed TO support my "presupposed conclusions", the assessment of the votecount DOES support my "presupposed conclusions."
What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

Two townies died before Day 2 began. The only people on BOTH of their wagons on D1 were Magna and DK. I do not think that can be chalked up completely to bad-luck town (re: Magna and DK's votes). Color coding aside I think the only votecount I reached on was perhaps the Twisted hammer. Since I am hypothesizing that there were only 3 scum on a 7 player mislynch. But Caboose (aka LMP) is confirmed town, fmpov I know I am town, and I have strong town reads on wicked and Regfan so even the Twisted votecount assessment is pretty solid IMO. For the most part I think the other votecounts I note are telling regardless of my specific POV.

And yes zMM...right now you are in my top four based on opinion following my catchup combined with PoE (not from my VCA but from considering my town reads as well). Though you as mafia (or evil sheep) does also fit well in the VCA with my suspicions of you.

@Wicked - The comments in line 263 were my summary of Magna's post 263. I was not calling DK a policy lynch, Magna was.
1. I didn't think it needed comment. Looking back on it I don't see the posts you compare being equal. DK appears to be leading town away from looking for scum on a cj wagon while I am essentially saying that I could be wrong in my top four scum suspects. Which I think is a perfectly normal rationale for anyone who does not possess ESP or a cheat sheet from the mod.
2. I don't know. I haven't considered whether it is in their best interests to find mafia or not. I hope they pursue and hit mafia.

[havingfitz]

Hez...do you have any werewolf reads? Or more specifically, do you think Magna is a wolf?

[havingfitz]

At Hez...I just noticed you said you thought Magna had the ability to kill so you answered my question. I agree he is probably scum but I have a hard time believing he is a wolf. Why do you think he is?

[zMuffinMan]

@zMM...the votecount wasn't assessed TO support my "presupposed conclusions", the assessment of the votecount DOES support my "presupposed conclusions."
What are your thoughts on the votecount as illustrated in post 601? Take away the unconfirmed red and greens I have coded red or green based on my "presupposed conclusions" and give me your take.

The problem is you say it supports your conclusions, but it would support almost any conclusion you made there...

For example, you said it's a safe bet to assume that there were one or two wolves on the cj wagon, and there's a possibility one or both his partners were bussing him. What combination of suspicions does your VCA not support here?

Assume Regfan is mafia, and tell me whether you think VCA supports this. Assume Wicked is a wolf, and tell me whether you think VCA supports this.

[havingfitz]

zMM...don't lead me on pointless goose chases. I have given my opinion and tried to back it up. I am not going to try and disprove my opinion or weaken it by coming up with all the scenarios it may not support. If you want to convince us Regfan is mafia or wicked is a wolf, go for it. I look forward to seeing your effort.

What are your thoughts on Hez's suspicions of you?

@Wicked...I overlooked your zMM question. I think he is most likely mafia with Magna. As I would prefer to see a wolf as today's lynch, I will not be focussing strongly on him today.

[zMuffinMan]

Goose chase? I'm saying your entire VCA is flawed because you are using it to support your conclusions when they would support almost any conclusions could you think of. I want you to show me how your VCA supports your conclusions but doesn't support the conclusion that, say, Regfan is mafia. I'm not saying Regfan is mafia. I'm just asking you to tell me how your VCA really supports anything you've said.

Hez's suspicion of me is that I think he's scum and I don't agree with him about who scum is so I'm scum. His argument is terrible.