Mini 1159 - Powerrox93's Mini Normal I (Game Over)

[Uncle Pain]

And finally I retry my questions:

• Jase: Have you found anything pointing to a connection between redtail896/chkflip and me? What do you make out of it?
  
• Zdenek:
  (question changed due to new situation)
  Who are your current suspects apart from redtail896? How has Setael’s case influenced your reads?
  
• Setael: What do you think about your predecessors and their play? How do you see the Day 1 [L] wagon and C-Worl’s hammer? Do you think Jase and bvoigt have/had reasonable ground for suspecting redtail896 and me as a scum team? What do you think about the tarsonisocelot case?
  
• crazypianist1116: Why did your scum hunt eagerness drop so hard since Day 2? Now that C-Worl is gone, do you suspect anyone at all?

Enough from me for today.

[tarsonisocelot]

No question for me? I feel left out.

[Jase]

UP: This is going to be my second time quoting myself on this.

Anyhow. My take on the possible Red/UP connection. Red very rarely speaks of UP at all. I read this yesterday and I do believe I counted twice in total. Once in his list of reads, and one other time. No conflict between the two is initiated by Red.

UP on the other hand talks about Red plenty. However pretty much all of it was non confrontational which could be relevant.

That's just something to keep in mind really. I don't have much other reason to suspect either of them as scum. If one flips scum at some point in the game we may want to look at the other good and hard.

I wonder though why you're so eager to hear what I have to say on the matter. Any reason?

TO: You seem to have dropped your case against me. Sort of suddenly at that. Care to explain?

[Jase]

Does not ring true. Andrew never did anything that made you go "Well that's weird"? Ever? You're gonna have to explain this to me.

Well, I went through his posts in isolation and stumbled upon these:

• We rarely had the same suspects: when I was voting Jase, he found him townie and voted [L]; I joined the wagon only very late. During Day 2, Zdenek was after redtail896 while I was after C-Worl. If you like to count that as an “that’s weird”, well here it is.
  
• Zdenek’s comment in #253 arguing that redtail896’s question “reads as over defensive” (which follows yabbaguy’s train of thought in #212). I asked both of them why they see this scummy (#218 @ yabbaguy, #356 @ Zdenek); Zdenek at least admits that the argument is weaker than redtail896’s escape preparation from the C-Worl wagon.

These things are merely eyebrow raisers, nothing I’d call scummy. Overall, Zdenek’s views on things often were quite refreshing to see because he considered things that I (and others, too) did not. I find this very pro-town.

The only thing that strikes me odd is why he thinks I’m town only for my activity. This is the only real stain on his slate in my eyes.

I'm only talking about what you think of andrews behavior.

[tarsonisocelot]

UP: This is going to be my second time quoting myself on this.

Anyhow. My take on the possible Red/UP connection. Red very rarely speaks of UP at all. I read this yesterday and I do believe I counted twice in total. Once in his list of reads, and one other time. No conflict between the two is initiated by Red.

UP on the other hand talks about Red plenty. However pretty much all of it was non confrontational which could be relevant.

That's just something to keep in mind really. I don't have much other reason to suspect either of them as scum. If one flips scum at some point in the game we may want to look at the other good and hard.

I wonder though why you're so eager to hear what I have to say on the matter. Any reason?

TO: You seem to have dropped your case against me. Sort of suddenly at that. Care to explain?

Not planning on dropping it. Postponing it until my head stops hurting enough to read the walls.
You also stopped the weirdness that was the main reason behind my vote.

[Powerrox93]

Votecount 3.7

Updated as of post #529

Setael (3) - Me=Weird, crazypianist1116, imaginality
chkflip (1) - Zdenek
Jase (1) - tarsonisocelot
Uncle Pain (1) - Setael

Not voting (3) - Uncle Pain, chkflip, Jase

If there's a mistake let me know.
9 Alive == 5 to Lynch && 5 to No-Lynch

Setael

will be lynched at deadline if votes doesn't change

V/LA

chkflip: Until June 1
Me=Weird: Until June 1
Uncle Pain: June 3-5 + June 11-12
Powerrox93: June 17-19. Empking will look over the game during that time

Deadline

June 11 14:00 CEST

[Setael]

Jase and TO, can you let me know when you've read the last few pages? And everyone else, when you finally come back can you comment on them as well? Not much I can/want to do until then. I feel like it's just me and the 2 scums in here glaring at each other.

[Uncle Pain]

My god, I need a break or something. I miss questions, I misread questions, I even miss whole posts.

I generally agree with Setael that the current lack of game activity is hurting this discussion. We have a serious case at hand and no one of the wranglers seems to move away from her/his opinion. We need input from the rest of you as well! chkflip especially.

Jase

: I’m sorry, I read “Andrew” instead of “Zdenek” somehow and hence stated my thoughts about Zdenek in #524. *sigh* Let’s do it again with andrew94…

• I always had some null feeling about andrew94. He wasn’t very active and didn’t post more that he had to; this alone was a null tell for me, though, as I’ve seen townies playing like this as well. I think I lost sight of andrew94 at some point due to the fact that he answered my questions (which satisfied me, even if the responses were brief) combined with his general inactivity (which I accounted to flaking instead of lurking). In retrospect, I should have know better by isolation-reading him, this would quickly have shown that he actually rarely acted, mostly reacted. His StefanB vote in #114 kind of is the only original content from him, I actually see how this reasoning managed to hold some water. Overall, I only see now that he in fact avoided to hunt scum; before C-Worl took his place, I wasn’t aware of any scumminess of his slot.

I’m also sorry for having failed to remember that you’ve already responded to my questions long ago. It wasn’t meant to offend you or something, I think I just lost some overview yesterday. I’m happy with your reply, by the way.

tarsonisocelot

: I basically repeated my old questions; the one directed at you is now obsolete and I didn’t take the time to think of new questions yesterday. On the other hand, why do you need a question at all? Isn’t there anything to comment on Setael’s case? Or let’s try something that doesn’t require you to read the walls:

You also stopped the weirdness that was the main reason behind my vote.

So you’re currently voting Jase for what exactly?

[Zdenek]

First of all, about the activity thing. It's not just UP's activity that gives me good feeling about him, it's the nature of it. His questions don't misrepresent stances that people have taken and I don't think he's using them to softly cast suspicion on to other players. I think he is genuinely scum hunting with them and trying to move the game forward.

Zdenek: (question changed due to new situation) Who are your current suspects apart from redtail896? How has Setael’s case influenced your reads?

Crazypianist's lack of suspects (at least what seems to be a lack of suspects, he's said little today) makes him scummy (forgetting to scum hunt).

Setael could be scum too. The past people in her slot didn't help, and her cases are too reliant on relational tells, so I think she is reaching with them.

[imaginality]

Hey people. Doing my best to boil down the walls and look at stances rather than pedantry, here's my current sense of things:

People's stances today

chkflip

(and redtail896) haven't given any reads today.

crazypianist1116

voted Setael on a 'hunch'.

imaginality

expressed suspicion of Setael, Me=Weird and Zdenek in that order.

Jase

hasn't given any strong reads today. He fencesat on Setael vs Uncle Pain, and asked cautionary questions to Me=Weird and tarsonisocelot.

Me=Weird

expressed suspicion of Setael and Zdenek in that order.

Setael

has set her stall on an Uncle Pain - Zdenek scumteam, with a town read on everyone else.

tarsonisocelot

expressed some suspicion of Jase.

Uncle Pain

expressed suspicion of Setael and Zdenek, in that order, and a townread on chkflip.

Zdenek

expressed suspicion of chkflip, and has a townread on Uncle Pain.

Thoughts: Me=Weird limiting her suspicions to Zdenek and Setael is interesting, since they're the two other people who are grouped with her as candidates for being a buddy of C-Worl/andrew94's (due to lack of interactions).

In contrast, Zdenek giving a town read on Uncle Pain is fairly bold if he's scum because if Setael's case gains traction it could easily come down to Zdenek vs Uncle Pain for the lynch. So, I think either Zdenek = town or Zdenek and UnclePain are the scumteam. I.e. I don't see Zdenek scum and Uncle Pain town as very likely. But, I've had a pretty solid town read on Uncle Pain for most of the game, and his defense has been calmly, clearly argued, so I'm leaning towards them both being town.

I like Setael's play, too, though. His case against Zdenek and Uncle Pain is over-certain at times and some points were stretches, but my gut says he is more likely town than scum. I've been impressed with the way he seems to be actually analysing stuff rather than offering lazy reads.

So, I lean towards Setael, Zdenek and Uncle Pain all being town.

On the other hand, chkflip/redtail896's lack of interest in the day fits with possible scum sitting back watching a town vs town spat, as does tarsonisocelot's lack of comment. Jase was pretty fence-sitty about Setael's attack vs Uncle Pain's defense, but I give him high town points for previous days and, despite the stoush at the start of today, I still think he's likely town.

Yesterday, there really wasn't much effort to put forward an alternative to the C-Worl lynch. To me it seems quite likely the mafia decided N1 to bus him rather than try to rescue him from the fairly blatant quick-hammer. That points towards early bussing rather than late bussing, which to me suggests chkflip/redtail896 as a likely scumbuddy. (If not him, I might need to reconsider the townread I've had on crazypianist1116.)

Unvote; vote: chkflip

Reads based on the above thoughts plus previous days' play:

Scum
--
chkflip
Me=Weird
crazypianist1116
tarsonisocelot
Zdenek
Setael
Uncle Pain
Jase
--
Town

[imaginality]

EBWOP: Sorry Setael, replace 'his' with 'her' in the paragraph about you.

[Setael]

Yesterday, there really wasn't much effort to put forward an alternative to the C-Worl lynch.

Zdenek? I think you need to reread his play yesterday.

[imaginality]

You'll have to explain how you see his play because I'm not really seeing it as a defense of C-Worl.

Zdenek's "the hammer was hasty but I see more scum-intent in Redtail" angle in his iso #10 at the start of D2 seems consistent with his more detailed read of C-Worl in iso #15, which was hardly a strong defense of him (it can be summarised as, "C-Worl's scummy for various reasons, but the hammer was actually too blatant to be scum,"), and his suspicion of redtail896 built on iso #7 from the previous day. I dunno, but it doesn't seem like he had much expectation or concern about saving C-Worl from the lynch (as compared with saying, "Hey guys I think we've caught scum here too").

And I don't see Zdenek pushing for people to lynch redtail896 (or anyone else) over C-Worl, which is what I'd expect from someone if scum really were trying to prevent the lynch.

[imaginality]

Of course, bvoigt/yabbaguy did defend C-Worl but he's already flipped town, and I didn't see anyone else echo his defense - wouldn't scum have agreed with him and helped him push his line of argument, if they wanted to save C-Worl?

The only other possibility I see for scum trying to stop C-Worl from being lynched is Me=Weird's post here.

[Uncle Pain]

Uncle Pain

expressed suspicion of Setael and Zdenek, in that order, and a townread on chkflip.

Small correction: I’m currently reading Zdenek as null-town. You probably took my scummy view from #458 but the reads there only refer to my take on your theory, and as such only play one part of the grand picture (this is why I wrote there below:

“Note that the read conclusions only take into account what I’ve found in these isolation reads looking for connections to andrew94/C-Worl.”

). My general take on Zdenek can be read in #524.

Zdenek? I think you need to reread his play yesterday.

While I agree that Zdenek indeed pursued the redtail896 wagon, no one else really did.

[Jase]

Zdenek said this

I included when I listed my reasons for voting Redtail because it was one of them, and I agree completely that him preparing as escape from the C-Worl wagon is a better reason to find him scummy.

I'm thinking the only reason one would want to escape from such a strong wagon is if they we're scum with the target of the wagon. Seems to me that Zdeneks reasoning here points to him knowing that c-worl would flip scum (again, why would scum want to "escape" from such a strong myslynch).

Also, If either Zdenek or UP flip scum I'm prepared to clear chk/red slot. Zdenek seems to have tried to accuse him based on scum knowledge. UP seems to have gone out of his way to appear connected as he mentioned the possibility of a scum connection several times since I brought it up to begin with. I don't suspect UP for that reason, to be clear. Just if he flips scum I'm certain that's what he did.

Zdenek on the other hand...

Vote: Zdenek

[Zdenek]

I'm thinking the only reason one would want to escape from such a strong wagon is if they we're scum with the target of the wagon.

I was thinking that scum would want a safe place to move their vote if the wagon they were on fell apart and it didn't matter what C-Worl's alignment was.

[Jase]

M'kay. I'm gonna start slogging through the walls. One at a time. Giving my thoughts as I go. The bolded numbers in the posts are added by me and will correspond to my responses below the quotes. I'll Also be shaving down the posts to make everything less wall-y. I may also respond in bold directly in the quote if I have something short to say.

Uncle Pain and Zdenek are scum.

Zdenek blatantly avoided commenting on c-worl or his wagon, but once asked point blank about it, he provided all kinds of reasons to think c-worl was scum.

Good point. Also calls c-worl anti-town and not scummy

1.

Uncle Pain has avoided interaction with Zdenek, and based on his “scum hunting” regarding everyone else, if he were town, he’d have called Zden out for this. His play on the c-worl wagon was definitely bussing.


zdenek post 23 sheeps imaginality

Iso 23 or regular 23?

Andrew post 60 could be scum with pain

Really really weak

p125 Uncle Pain defends Andrew. “imaginality: A beautiful case you’ve built here. Can you point out where you found andrew94 particularly scummy?”

2.

p 128 Odd for zdenek to not even comment on Uncle Pain, the leading wagon. If zdenek is scum, it makes sense for him to vote L at this point. If he’s partners with Uncle Pain, he wouldn’t want to be backing the wagon on stefan so much. He even gives a few reasons to be suspicious of Stefan, but then says his read on him is null. Could definitely see him scum with uncle pain because otherwise he’d have at least commented on the uncle pain wagon which was at 3 votes here. Answers Uncle Pain’s question about Stefan but doesn’t comment on Pain at all.

Uncle pain 321 c-worl vote is almost definitely bussing

Again, why?

3.

Zdenek post 330 tries to derail cworl wagon and start one on redtail. Then in 360 he’s agreeing with uncle pain that Redtail is scummy for supposedly preparing an escape from the c-worl wagon. If this is the case, and Zdenek thinks c-worl is scum, why isn’t he voting c-worl? Or mentioning him at all? Then when the redtail wagon doesn’t take, in post 424 when c-worl is at L-1 he tries to get momentum moved to crazypianist.

The interaction between zdenek and uncle pain while c-worl was about to be lynched is fishy. It’s like Uncle Pain was seeing that the townies were letting zdenek fly under the radar, so he made sure to ask him lots of questions, just not about c-worl.

Post numbers?

4.

Bvoigt was NK'd for uncle pain suspicion in posts 393 and 432.

P399 Uncle Pain says: "bvoigt: How can you explain that everyone else sees me town but you see me scummy?" Sounds like something scum would say - upset they're losing their free pass.

Good point. Not damning though

Zdenek's 402 without details is scummy

Town read w/o details is not scummy.

Zdenek 424 against CP - still doesn't mention cworl. Trying to swing momentum anywhere else

Good point

c-worl: "Not enough for you? Hammered myself to keep suspicion of Uncle Pain from building up." So you can say what you want about c-worl’s WIFOM, but this one makes sense, and I think it is true.

NO WE ARE NOT MENTIONING THIS! THIS ISN'T A REASON.

@Uncle Pain - any reason not to post your longish post anyhow, if you still have it?

And then post 444 UP posts it...and it’s questions for most the players. Why not post it when he supposedly wrote it? And if he decided not to post it then, why save it for later when the questions would be totally obsolete? Makes no sense.

Good point

457 Uncle Pain brings up bvoigt NK wifom before anyone else can. He clearly NK’d the person who was suspicious of him and planned to wifom the town.

This is WIFOM

5.

At this point, Uncle Pain not being suspicious of Zdenek after he totally avoided commenting on c-worl makes it pretty obv they’re buddies.

vote: Uncle Pain

1. "Definitely bussing" bit needs to be explained. It didn't jump out at me as being so.

2. It isn't really odd that early in the game. Especially when the leading wagon is at L-3 or whatever.

3. A good point, though I don't think UP pointed out the "red preparing to escape from c-worl wagon" bit.

4. Speculation. I find it just as likely that scum thought he was the one who people thought to be most town.

5. Nobody else called him out for this either. It doesn't make sense to accuse him of ignoring intentionally and then assume everyone else missed it by accident.

[Me=Weird]

Thoughts: Me=Weird limiting her suspicions to Zdenek and Setael is interesting, since they're the two other people who are grouped with her as candidates for being a buddy of C-Worl/andrew94's (due to lack of interactions).

First off, I'm a guy. Now to the points.
I didn't interact much because not only was it a null read until hammer etc, but he was such a non contributor content wise, I barely noticed him for a while.
I also solidly expressed suspicion of redtail, and before c-worl flipped scum.

Setaels play does not convince me at all. I've seen scum come in, make a huge wall case against some townie that demotivates everybody, and lynch em. Newbie 943 or something. Not saying the huge cases are scummy, just that they're not townie. Conciseness is pro-town.

[Setael]

Setael: What do you think about your predecessors and their play?

This question is my pet peeve. I will continue to ignore it.

How do you see the Day 1 [L] wagon and C-Worl’s hammer?

OK so at post 179 the VC was:

StefanB (5) - imaginality, Me=Weird, andrew94, Mist7676, [L]
[L] (5) - tarsonisocelot, Zdenek, crazypianist1116, StefanB, Jase
tarsonisocelot (1) - yabbaguy

Not voting (2) - Surprise_Carcinogen, Uncle Pain

Sweet. Two townies at L-2. Zdenek keeps pushing the L wagon and defending Stefan. Redtail replaces in and votes TO even though he also has a scum read on L. Could go either way on this - I've certainly replaced in as scum and avoided the main wagons, but since both the wagons have flipped town, I can't help but think that scum would've thrown their weight behind one of them at the point that Red replaced in. He did state a scum read on L which left him open to hammer, though so not sure what I think about that.

UP is also pushing L and so is Jase, both accusing her of not defending. I don't see this at all and thought her defense and frustration was pretty obvtown. Jase's play looks more like town with how hard he was pushing and the things he was saying. UP's is more like scum gently pushing a mislynch.

UP lists his scum picks as TO, L and myself. UP, why did you target my slot today over TO?

c-worl replaces in and puts L at L-1.

Imaginality then votes Prox. Unlikely scum would look elsewhere like this with 2 juicy mislynches on the table.

DemonHybrid's posts 260 and 262 listed a lot of suspicion on Zdenek and UP. Didn't notice this the first read-through, but this is probably a bit part of why he was killed N1.

So then the VC is:

[L] (5) - tarsonisocelot, Zdenek, crazypianist1116, C-Worl, Uncle Pain
tarsonisocelot (4) - yabbaguy, redtail896, [L], Prox
DemonHybrid (1) - Me=Weird
Prox (1) - imaginality
Jase (1) - DemonHybrid

Not voting (1) - Jase

This gives me a bad feeling about my reads, actually. If I'm right about the scum team, all 3 of them were on the L wagon here. I don't recall c-worl saying anything about TO really (i'll have to look back again) but it's highly likely everyone on that TO wagon is town. Redtail's the only one I'm not sure about and I'm definitely leaning town on him. So maybe I'm wrong about either UP or Zdenek and one of them is scum with TO. I'll have to think about this.

I'm ok with imaginality's L-1 vote, though it kind of negates the town points he had for looking elsewhere. I can definitely see a townie getting behind that L wagon though so it's pretty null. obv c-worl's hammer was scummy... since he was scum. Weird question to ask.

Do you think Jase and bvoigt have/had reasonable ground for suspecting redtail896 and me as a scum team? What do you think about the tarsonisocelot case?

I had a strong town read on Surprise so I'm not seeing the redtail suspicion at all. TO has pinged my scumdar a couple of times so that's a better possibility.

[Powerrox93]

Votecount 3.7

Updated as of post #529

Setael (2) - Me=Weird, crazypianist1116
chkflip (2) - Zdenek, imaginality
Jase (1) - tarsonisocelot
Uncle Pain (1) - Setael
Zdenek (1) - Jase

Not voting (2) - Uncle Pain, chkflip

If there's a mistake let me know.
9 Alive == 5 to Lynch && 5 to No-Lynch

Setael

will be lynched at deadline if votes doesn't change

V/LA

Uncle Pain: June 3-5 + June 11-12
Powerrox93: June 17-19. Empking will look over the game during that time

Deadline

June 11 14:00 CEST

[Powerrox93]

crazypianist1116 has been prodded

[Powerrox93]

Because chkflip has been V/LA, he will have an extra day to post prior to being prodded

[Jase]

Ok so

Everyone: Who are your top two suspects today and why? What do you think about Seteals cases?

We need to get people in here, and we need them saying things that matter. Take stances. Pursue suspects. Do it! Post post post post post post!

[Jase]

Jase and TO, can you let me know when you've read the last few pages? And everyone else, when you finally come back can you comment on them as well? Not much I can/want to do until then. I feel like it's just me and the 2 scums in here glaring at each other.

I've read it all. I'm more inclined to think Zdenek is scum than UP. I think the reasoning against UP is kinda weak in comparison. Possibly in general but I haven't gone through and looked as carefully as I'd like yet so we'll see.

Ok seriously. Is it the walls that are keeping people from posting? Just skim 'em. Let's keep this moving forward shall we?