New York 131: Tricycle Mafia (Day 5)

[silverbullet999]

-jmurph

@Silver: No. You haven't said "shit". Actually, you have. All that you've said today has been pretty much bullshit. Who do you think is scum? You mentioned nhammen weakly, but that's it. Please, make a case against someone. I'm not tunneling, I just don't see any conceivable way that you can be acting the way you are and be town.

This is exactly the gad damn point i'm making. You say my posts have been bullshit when i've been arguing with nhammers logic in his walls but let's just keep fucking ignoring the obvious shall we?

@Pine: and you don't think it's at all conceivable that silver, knowing that you and everyone else who played TWBB remembers that he acted that way as town, is doing the same exact thing as scum and relying on the fact that you will think he's town because of it?

Silver bullet - The evil scum mastermind that caclulates each and every gad damn move every player is going to make and see. By god I'm Fucking Brilliant! If Only you didn't catch on, jmurph the even bigger god damn mastermind! Didn't I say something about God Damn Tunneling before? You don't get this paranoid unless you are tunneling mate.. you are fucking proving there's no point in me trying to fight this time and time again.

-Toon Fighter

I already came up with that exact same case against mastin D2, Pine, so you are just copying me. I am not liking silver's recent response to the wagon on him, just lamenting himself, so my vote is going back on him.

vote: silverbullet

Lamenting myself? What have I been doing this whole day? Is this hammer? Please say it is...

[Toon Fighter]

no, not yet. If you believe Maxous is scum, vote him

[Uite]

Fuck, I've been really busy the past few days (all good things, I assure you) and I'm behind again. It's too late at night for me to catch up now, so I promise I will do so tomorrow.

[Maxous]

Finally re-read. Yay! >_>

I am less confident about Toon Fighter being mafia. Amor attacked Toon a lot during the day 1, and actively tries to get him lynched. Plus this comment makes Toon seem town
The way Amor avoided the Silver-Sub arguement like a plague and the method in which DK attacked Sub a lot during his near lynch makes me think Silver is town.
DK and Amor made a couple of light attacks towards Pine as well. Pine looks a bit more towny.
Zepher went after Amor a lot during Day 1. Even when he was'nt under pressure - still think he is town.
nhammen seems kinda town due to this post and he scumhunted Amor quite a bit.

If I am to say those 5 are town that leaves -Uite, NS, Mastin.
I am probably incorrect about somebody however.

Get your WIFOM caps on..

List of those I think are Scum: silverbullet999
List of those I Suspect: mastin,

SubzeroSith

, Toon Fighter,

Wraith

, Uite
List of those I think are Town:

Knight of Cydonia

, nhammen,

Amor

, MrZepher,

Surye

,

Maxous

, Nobody Special,

Thor665

, Pine,

jmurph3

I suspect he would of put a buddy in the second column.
And I still maintain DK's attitude towards NS was different than others doing the same things.

[Uite]

I took the time today to update my spreadsheet, and I'm presenting it here to you in all it's glory!



I take it most of you have encountered something like this before, and know how to read it. If not, ask and Ill explain. As far as I can tell, this is accurate, but please tell me if something is off.

Anyway, in the process of composing this, I skimmed over all of the posts from page 13 on, though I haven't read anything in depth. From my skim, there are two people I have a bad gut about: Pine and Toon. Pine's claim seems reasonable enough though, so my main suspect right now is Toon. I haven't actually analysed anything yet, so I'll hold off my vote until I do.

[Pine]

What the hell is that?

[Maxous]

It's basically a sheet that keeps track of the votes and wagons.

You'll see everybody has a particular colour and the number is the size of the bandwagon at the time of the post number to the left hand side.

[Pine]

An incomplete explanation is not helpful. How does one interpret it, and more to the point, how does one misinterpret it as badly as Uite seems to?

[MrZepher]

It works like a VCA, actually it IS a VCA.

You use it to see who was voting where and at what time. The more colors on one person's vote, the scumier I've found.
Example: Look at the people we know are scum, and compare to the people we know are Town.

It helps get a better idea of who the scum are based off of voting consistencies/inconsistencies.

[C-Tree]

Ahh. Then, like, all VCAs, it's an ineffective attempt to introduce mathematics and statistical analysis into a setting where they don't belong.

I'll be wholly disregarding it and any results from it as bunk. Especially considering the source.

[Pine]

Ahh. Then, like, all VCAs, it's an ineffective attempt to introduce mathematics and statistical analysis into a setting where they don't belong.

I'll be wholly disregarding it and any results from it as bunk. Especially considering the source.

Quoted for ease of ISOing me. Forgot I was still in hydra mode.

[MrZepher]

No. It works if you don't use it as a basis for entire cases....
Looks at a certain someone >.>

Besides, no scumhunting tactic is guaranteed to find scum anyways, and it's being willfully ignorant to ignore a viable tool.

[Pine]

When VCA is used first, it is the basis for tunneling and justifying all evidence to fit that view.

When VCA is used to support an existing case, it is bent and twisted to justify that existing case.

Statistics, and VCA is just that, can be made to do whatever you want them to.

[jmurph3]

ANYTHING in this game can be taken and twisted and manipulated to support anything. VCA is just another tool to be used, the same as ISOs and meta and quotes and literally anything that anyone says or does in this game. To dismiss it outright under the guise that it can be manipulated is to dismiss anything that anyone does in this game as conjecture or as being "twisted".

[Pine]

I've had a bad experience with VCAs, largely at Mastin's hand. Probably because with my voting habits and tendencies, VCAs tend to pick me out as guilty when I'm Town. Uite's is a good example. I recklessly jump my vote around a lot until I elicit a reaction that I can get a rock-solid read from. Viewed subjectively, it's clear what I'm doing. Viewed through purely-objective, impersonal number crunching, it looks suspect.

ANY tool which fails to take significant factors into account, particularly critical analysis or subjective context, is fatally flawed.

That's why I don't like ISO analysis either, and only really use it to look for specific things, like whether or not a person interacts with someone specific.

[Maxous]

VCA's and ISO's are fine to use as long as theyu are'nt the sole reason you are voting somebody. They can increase/decrease confidence in reads.

Speaking of which I'm in a bit of a stump here of who to go for. Looking through DK's and Amor's behaviour Day 1 is suggesting Silverbullet is not thier buddy.
I would vote NS right now but Knight of Cydonia seems to of breadcrumbed a clear on him.
I think Pine is town. I think nhammen is town.

Toon fighter's behaviour strongly suggests mafia to me but the flipped mafia's attitude to him puts me off the idea of them being a team..
I suppose Mr.Zepher could of simply bussed Amor because he was'nt sure who to go for. He has'nt voted a lot in this game.. idk

Mastin as mafia? He is hard to read. Uite - maybe.

Lynching Pine is a bad idea - the roleblocking will be useful considering the amount of mafia left. They will prob night kill him eventually.

[Pine]

We probably have a Doc, considering we have a Cop and Roleblocker. Doc completes the set of standard Town PRs.

Warning: Setup speculation ahead!

Given the flavor and how prepared quadz was with that Police cruiser tricycle, there's gotta be an ambulance tricycle in the setup.

I wouldn't say 'no' to a Doc protecting me, as I'm likely the next strongest Town PR left, and the only claimed one.

[Toon Fighter]

Are you claiming VT, Uite? In your VC, it says VT under your name

[Maxous]

Lawl did'nt notice that.

Gonna make a choice here...
VOTE: Mr.Zepher

This is through process of elimination to be honest.

[Toon Fighter]

Uite, have you looked at yourself? You had 3 bs votes (voted me, unvoted the day after, voted into a DK wagon that never went anywhere D1, failed to vote D2, and D3 same thing, a stupid vote on a confirmed town, and now no votes for a few days), never showed up to any decent wagon, lurked throughout the game, waited to hammer DK. Your scumhunting is resumed to basically the VCA post, and even that has no real comment to it, its just a collection of data. You think we should lynch mastin, Pine, me, jmurph, although you haven't analysed anything yet. You may have been sick, but it has been enough time to catch up by now. Also, you have an unexplained and unnecessary VT claim and a column seems to be missing from your VCA. Who was there? scumslip much?

[Toon Fighter]

oh I see, dead and alive, sorry for that one

[MrZepher]

Lawl did'nt notice that.

Gonna make a choice here...
VOTE: Mr.Zepher

This is through process of elimination to be honest.

:badposting:

What process of elimination? Explain thyself.

[Pine]

He actually has explained himself. Over the last couple of pages he's declared almost everyone clear. I don't have the time nor inclination to look it up, but I believe you and NS are the only ones he hasn't.

UNVOTE: Uite
VOTE: Nobody Special

The role slip in his chart looks genuine, but could be a calculated "town slip". Enough to let him go for now.

[MrZepher]

LOL. Okay so it's completely okay for somebody to just call you town for X amount of posts and then next thing you know there's a vote on the person they just called town.
Right, because that's not scummy at all.

One second while I analyze this VCA

[Pine]

I owe you an apology, Zepher. 822 was written entirely from memory. I just looked through Maxous's ISO, trying to disprove your 823, and found that you're absolutely right. Prior to this, Maxous had not expressed more than mild suspicion of you, and up until 803 was calling you Town.

UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: Maxous

NS and Mastin are also good lynches, but a contradiction like that...I'm not going to let it go.