OPEN 310 - Medical Mafia - TOWN WIN

[chkflip]

Mor, explain how they're wishy-washy and I'll elaborate on how they aren't.

Now, how can hypoclaiming benefit scum more? They know who we're protecting, simple as. They already know who they are and who we are.

For example, lets go with the assumption that we're to use the plan of protecting the person below us on the player list. OH, LOOK AT THAT, the person below X died, that must mean they're one of the freak-accident doctors OR scum. That's on top of the quack doctor. The only 100% fool-proof tell is if the doctor that dies protecting a mafia goon dies... but even that could be WIFOM'd by the mafia since we won't be getting sanities from the flips. Broken down enough?

[Amrun]

They don't know our sanities any more than we do.

So, no, your explanation makes no sense to me.

[Hoppster]

Mor, explain how they're wishy-washy and I'll elaborate on how they aren't.

Now, how can hypoclaiming benefit scum more? They know who we're protecting, simple as. They already know who they are and who we are.

For example, lets go with the assumption that we're to use the plan of protecting the person below us on the player list. OH, LOOK AT THAT, the person below X died, that must mean they're one of the freak-accident doctors OR scum. That's on top of the quack doctor. The only 100% fool-proof tell is if the doctor that dies protecting a mafia goon dies... but even that could be WIFOM'd by the mafia since we won't be getting sanities from the flips. Broken down enough?

This is better than the multitude of possibilities arising from straight up real-claiming and how painfully easy that is to manipulate for scum.

Spoiler: Possible scenarios if 2 people claim to target Player Y (alive)

1 could be CPR, 1 could be quack.
1 could be a paranoid doc, 1 could be a normal doc.
1 could be a paranoid doc, 1 could be a naive doc.
1 could be a paranoid doc, 1 could be a weak doc.
1 could be a naive doc, 1 could be a normal doc.
1 could be a naive doc, 1 could be a weak doc.
1 could be normal doc, 1 could be quack.
1 could be a normal doc, 1 could be a weak doc.
1 could be nurse, 1 could be normal doc.
1 could be nurse, 1 could be naive doc.
1 could be nurse, 1 could be paranoid doc.

1 could be nurse, 1 could be weak doc.

Both could be scum who chose to NK somebody else.
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be a normal doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be a paranoid doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be a CPR doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a normal doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a naive doc.

One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a weak doc.

One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a paranoid doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a nurse.

Spoiler: Possible scenarios if 2 people claim to protect Player Y (dead)

Player Y, a weak doc, could have targeted scum.

See the italicised possibilities in the above spoiler for all the sub-scenarios within this scenario.

Both could be scum (who chose to NK that person)
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be a naive doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be a weak doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be a nurse.
One could be scum who chose to NK that person, the other could be quack doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a CPR doc.
One could be scum who chose to NK somebody else, the other could be a quack doc.
One could be a quack doc, the other could be a naive doc.
One could be a quack doc, the other could be a nurse.
One could be a CPR doc, the other could be a naive doc.
One could be a CPR doc, the other could be a nurse.
One could be a CPR doc, the other could be a quack doc, and then scum NK'd that person.
One could be a normal doc, the other could be a quack doc, and then scum NK'd that person.
One could be a weak doc, the other could be a quack doc, and then scum NK'd that person.
One could be a nurse, the other could be a quack doc, and then scum NK'd that person.
One could be a naive doc, the other could be a quack doc, and then scum NK'd that person.
One could be a naive doc, the other could be a nurse, and then scum NK'd that person.
One could be a paranoid doc, the other could be a quack doc, and then scum NK'd that person.

There are almost certainly scenarios I have missed off in both those situations.

I'm thinking that perhaps we should pair-off instead of going around in a big circle.

We lynch Player A.

Player B protects Player C.
Player C protects Player B.

Player D protects Player E.
Player E protects Player D.

Player F protects Player G.
Player G protects Player F.

Player H protects Player I.
Player I protects Player H.


This has the potential to be slightly more informative than a big circle, as we could have both players within a pairing dying, which would tell us for sure that at least one of them was a CPR/Quack.


We're definitely not straight-up claiming though, as that does not help AT ALL effectively, as shown in the spoilers above. It's either work out some hypo-doc'ing method, or just No Action.

[DeityKabuto]

No feud. I just know that the game is better off without him.

Stfu you asshole. You are the lynch for today for wanting a mislynch.

[DeityKabuto]

This is scum chkflip posting.

[HellloooNewman]

They don't know our sanities any more than we do.

So, no, your explanation makes no sense to me.

It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).

Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc. Through speculation, they push their agenda that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).

The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.

Granted, this is a best case scenario for the scum, but still quite possible.

[Moratorium]

They don't know our sanities any more than we do.

So, no, your explanation makes no sense to me.

It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).

Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc. Through speculation, they push their agenda that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).

The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.

Granted, this is a best case scenario for the scum, but still quite possible.

Please explain at least one scenario where town could discern between a Quack kill and a Scum kill. Without one, your logic breaks down.

[Amrun]

Exactly; town isn't going to arbitrarily assume scumkill etc. We will account for all possibilities.

[HellloooNewman]

They don't know our sanities any more than we do.

So, no, your explanation makes no sense to me.

It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).

Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc.

Through speculation, they push their agenda

that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).

The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.

Granted, this is a best case scenario for the scum, but still quite possible.

How do we decide who is scum and who is town? We talk, make reads and use our judgement. You can't tell me that you believe that on Day 2, if we have 2 dead townies, that we won't try and figure out which is which. And, when that happens, a strong scum player could talk us in circles.

[AntB]

VOTE COUNT - 9 alive, 5 to Lynch

DeityKabuto

[L-2] <- Hoppster - Quilford - HellloooNewman

Hopster

<- tim_hill1990

HellloooNewman

<- DeityKabuto

Not Voting

<- chkflip, jilynne1991, Moratoriumm, Amrun

DEADLINE

THURSDAY 23 JUNE 2011 23:59:59 UTC
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@DeityKabuto - Please don't make it personal, it's only a game after all.

[Amrun]

Explain how that wouldn't happen if we didn't hypodoc.

It's a good way to detect scummy behavior.

[HellloooNewman]

True, but think about this. If the scenario I spelled out were to happen, the scum would know who the QD is and exploit that fact. Without the claims, they won't have extra intel over us.

I think that is what it boils down to. Going through with the hypo doc stuff gives the scum way more information than it gives the town.

[DeityKabuto]

They don't know our sanities any more than we do.

So, no, your explanation makes no sense to me.

It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).

Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc.

Through speculation, they push their agenda

that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).

The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.

Granted, this is a best case scenario for the scum, but still quite possible.

How do we decide who is scum and who is town? We talk, make reads and use our judgement. You can't tell me that you believe that on Day 2, if we have 2 dead townies, that we won't try and figure out which is which. And, when that happens, a strong scum player could talk us in circles.

No, my guts know that this is you playing like a scum.

[Amrun]

True, but think about this. If the scenario I spelled out were to happen, the scum would know who the QD is and exploit that fact. Without the claims, they won't have extra intel over us.

I think that is what it boils down to. Going through with the hypo doc stuff gives the scum way more information than it gives the town.

Incorrect. Scum might be able to narrow down weak/quack/cpr doc, but SO CAN WE. That's excellent information for us.

We have to lynch perfectly in this game to win, basically. We need all the information we can get.

If we play this game blindly, we will lose.

[HellloooNewman]

Explain which part is incorrect.

[Moratorium]

Mor, explain how they're wishy-washy and I'll elaborate on how they aren't.

I missed this originally. It's the language of it. Each statement you made used hedging language, as I laid out in #98.

[Amrun]

HN: Scum won't do any better knowing our quack than we will. We will likely have two doctors plus a probable scumkill tonight dead. They'll know which one was theirs, but no more. And we could have 4 dead tonight.

If we mislynch tonight, we might lose. Either way, tomorrow is probably lylo.

We need all the information we can get or we lose. Period. If we just let it go willynilly, 9/10 we lose.

Forcing this structure gives us an expected behavior we can judge scum by.

[Moratorium]

I've been thinking about this debate ongoing in the past few pages between HN and Amrun.

A potential alternative, where we avoid all this "mislynch and we might lose" business, and we can avoid the entire hypo-claim conversation. We ignore the fact that we have 7 flavors of doctor, no one targets anyone, and we play the game as 7 vanilla townies vs. 2 scum.

Basically, this is posing a question: which is stronger? 7 varied flavors of Doctor, or 7 Vanilla townies? Looking at the 7 doctor roles, there's a possibility of 0-4 kills, and a possibility of 0-4 saves. Does that make them equal to 7 vanilla, with the 7 vanilla being less of a knife's edge strategy than 7 doctors?

My personal opinion is that if we are very confident about who we are lynching, we can try the hypo-claim route (Either the original hypo-claim idea, or the 'pairing' idea later proposed). If, however, we only arrive at a lynch after a long deliberation and some difficulty, we can fall back on simply not issuing any doctor orders, to ensure we don't screw ourselves with one bad day.

The variance of this game is tweaked way high.

[Amrun]

That just turns it into a mountainous. I didn't sign up to play a mountainous. I am playing. High stakes mountainous right now. And I would not have joined this if it were mountainous.

Plus I don't think 2v7 mountainous odds are good either.

I want to test the setup. Ultimately I think it's too scumfavored, but we can't work out the kinks unless we utilize it.

[chkflip]

@MOD:

Terribly sorry, but deep depression is deep and depressing. Instead of stinking your game with it... it's best I opt out.

Sorry all.

[HellloooNewman]

Scum will know our quack. They know who they killed. They would know who targeted them (via the hypo docing). So, if that person died, they would know that the CPR Doc is dead. Hence, another death would be the Quack.

[Amrun]

Scum will know our quack. They know who they killed. They would know who targeted them (via the hypo docing). So, if that person died, they would know that the CPR Doc is dead. Hence, another death would be the Quack.

That is not how the CPR doc works. Read the rules and come back.

[HellloooNewman]

Wow Amrun. Meant weak doc, not CPR. My point is still the same.

[Amrun]

Except it's not. All 3 of them existing changes things drastically.

[AntB]

Thanks for letting me know chkflip, I hope everything picks up soon.

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I have been asked in PM if doctors are able to protect themselves. Nobody may target themselves with any action in this game.