OPEN 310 - Medical Mafia - TOWN WIN

[AntB]

IceGuy replaces chkflip. Thanks IceGuy

[IceGuy]

For example, lets go with the assumption that we're to use the plan of protecting the person below us on the player list. OH, LOOK AT THAT, the person below X died, that must mean they're one of the freak-accident doctors OR scum. That's on top of the quack doctor. The only 100% fool-proof tell is if the doctor that dies protecting a mafia goon dies... but even that could be WIFOM'd by the mafia since we won't be getting sanities from the flips. Broken down enough?

If the person below X died, we know X can't be a "real" (normal, weak or paranoid) doctor. I'd say this is pretty valuable information.

It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).

Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc. Through speculation, they push their agenda that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).

Why should we be stupid enough to believe this?

The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.

No, both Player A and Player C's protector (I'll call them D) know they are not real doctors, so they are going to target a suspected scum player.

True, but think about this. If the scenario I spelled out were to happen, the scum would know who the QD is and exploit that fact. Without the claims, they won't have extra intel over us.

And we won't have ANY information about ourselves.

I think that is what it boils down to. Going through with the hypo doc stuff gives the scum way more information than it gives the town.

Everything gives scum more information than town. Scum has an information advantage right from the beginning, which they can use to deduce even more as the game progresses.

Scum will know our quack. They know who they killed. They would know who targeted them (via the hypo docing). So, if that person died, they would know that the

CPR doc

weak doc is dead. Hence, another death would be the Quack.

And how are they going to use this information to their advantage, except by not killing him (which they aren't going to do anyway with a player that might be a quack)? It can't be used in day game as it would make the player confirmed scum immediately.

tl;dr: Hypodoc'ing is the way.

Basically, this is posing a question: which is stronger? 7 varied flavors of Doctor, or 7 Vanilla townies? Looking at the 7 doctor roles, there's a possibility of 0-4 kills, and a possibility of 0-4 saves. Does that make them equal to 7 vanilla, with the 7 vanilla being less of a knife's edge strategy than 7 doctors?

If we would play mountainous, we lose 1 townie for sure. Assuming no lynch, circle hypodoc'ing, a random distribution of roles and a random night kill, we lose 2.08201058 townies and 0.565665155 scum on average, and gain a lot of information which will help us later. No risk, no fun.

[Amrun]

So, IceGuy is town.

[Moratorium]

Game is suffering from multiple lurkers and lack of contribution, there's about four players who need to post more and/or make their opinions known.

[Amrun]

Can we prod jilly and tim-hill, mod?

[AntB]

jilyenne1991 has been prodded. tim_hill1990 isn't within prod range currently.

[Hoppster]

IceGuy is

probably

town for arguing with his predecessor.


jilynne is probably scum by virtue of everybody else appearing relatively townier, and then I'm not completely sure who else.

DeityKabuto I'm getting mixed feelings about.

Frogboy (Hoppster), I am town you fucktard.

^Made me think he is town.

No feud. I just know that the game is better off without him.

Stfu you asshole. You are the lynch for today for wanting a mislynch.

^Made me think he is scum.

This is scum chkflip posting.

^Made me think he is town.

[...]

No, my guts know that this is you playing like a scum.

^Made me think he is scum.


I think I'm probably confident enough at this stage to say that the 2 scum are in:

{Jilynne, tim_hill, DeityKabuto, Moratorium}

Ordered in preference of lynch.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Jilynne

Gogogogo people.

Plus I don't think 2v7 mountainous odds are good either.

I think I read that 2:10 is balanced. :/

[DeityKabuto]

Game is suffering from multiple lurkers and lack of contribution, there's about four players who need to post more and/or make their opinions known.

I don't have an opinion, I'll just go along with the group.

Actually, I do, but it involves Hello dying.

[Moratorium]

Plus I don't think 2v7 mountainous odds are good either.

I think I read that 2:10 is balanced. :/

Confirmed on the Wiki.

So the assumption appears to be that 7 flavors of Doctor allows for a lot more information gathering over time than 7 vanilla townies.

I think I'm probably confident enough at this stage to say that the 2 scum are in:

{Jilynne, tim_hill, DeityKabuto, Moratorium}

Not sure how I'm supposed to address the fact that you think I'm... the second worst townie? Thank you? I'm wierded out by this, it's like a reverse backhanded compliment.

PR:

I don't have an opinion, I'll just go along with the group.

Actually, I do, but it involves Hello dying.

Case? Anything outside of recent Ad Hominem back and forth? Because that's all you seem to be pushing.

[DeityKabuto]

Plus I don't think 2v7 mountainous odds are good either.

I think I read that 2:10 is balanced. :/

Confirmed on the Wiki.

So the assumption appears to be that 7 flavors of Doctor allows for a lot more information gathering over time than 7 vanilla townies.

I think I'm probably confident enough at this stage to say that the 2 scum are in:

{Jilynne, tim_hill, DeityKabuto, Moratorium}

Not sure how I'm supposed to address the fact that you think I'm... the second worst townie? Thank you? I'm wierded out by this, it's like a reverse backhanded compliment.

PR:

I don't have an opinion, I'll just go along with the group.

Actually, I do, but it involves Hello dying.

Case? Anything outside of recent Ad Hominem back and forth? Because that's all you seem to be pushing.

I know but I don't want to meta his scumplay with ongoing games.

But in this game we played: Hard Boiled

He was scum, and he was being pretty hostile against me, I EVEN SAID HE WAS SCUM DAY 1, didn't have much evidence, it was kind of an OMGUS and because of his play, but nobody listened and they took his word for it and lynched me. He is being a bit hostile in this game too, and that is something to note of.

[IceGuy]

Not sure how I'm supposed to address the fact that you think I'm... the second worst townie? Thank you? I'm wierded out by this, it's like a reverse backhanded compliment.

I currently have you as my top scumread, simply because I'm pretty sure that at least one scum player was on the early DK wagon, and the other players on the wagon appear towny.

tim_hill: Scummy for posting a minimum of posts containing a minimum of content.

jilynne: May be flaking; if she isn't replaced, same as tim_hill.

DK: Scummy because he went through the roof when Hoppster had a slight suspicion on him.

Newman: Neutral. It's pretty obvious that you have something against DK, but that seems to be on a personal level and have nothing to do with the game. Your arguments against hypodoc'ing and for mountainous are strange and scummy, but your posts before that are towny.

Amrun, Quilford and Hoppster: Town.

[jilynne1991]

OMG, I'm so sorry, I totally forgot about this game, since I forgot to bookmark it when I recieved my role pm. I'll post again when I've read through everything and have something to say. Sorry! Usually, my activity level is pretty good.

[Moratorium]

I currently have you as my top scumread, simply because I'm pretty sure that at least one scum player was on the early DK wagon, and the other players on the wagon appear towny.

I voted for DK first, in post #4 of this game, as an obvious RVS vote. So I'm not sure how you are attributing me to a "wagon". I also ended up having to unvote 4 hours and 34 minutes later, in post #21 (again, page 1 Day 1, literally the morning of game start) because everyone piled on behind me.

I'm fine with discussing your "scumread", and would in fact encourage it based on the lack of scumhunting in this game, but I'd like to hear something from you with a little more substance than the wagon I wasn't on, or my "appearance".

[Moratorium]

In everybody's next post, they MUST do the following:

Either vote DeityKabuto, Hoppster, or not make a vote.

Hoppster, can I get an explanation from you as to what this was about in your original post?

[Hoppster]

In everybody's next post, they MUST do the following:

Either vote DeityKabuto, Hoppster, or not make a vote.

Hoppster, can I get an explanation from you as to what this was about in your original post?

Although perhaps unnecessary in hindsight, it was mainly to force people to take stances.


Going to read the Newman meta DK provided at some point.

[IceGuy]

I voted for DK first, in post #4 of this game, as an obvious RVS vote. So I'm not sure how you are attributing me to a "wagon". I also ended up having to unvote 4 hours and 34 minutes later, in post #21 (again, page 1 Day 1, literally the morning of game start) because everyone piled on behind me.

I'm fine with discussing your "scumread", and would in fact encourage it based on the lack of scumhunting in this game, but I'd like to hear something from you with a little more substance than the wagon I wasn't on, or my "appearance".

Actually those are good arguments, and they match with your previous posts. Consider yourself cleared for now.

As this makes DK more suspicious, and jilynne has provided an adequate explanation, my current scumteam suspect is DK/tim_hill.

[jilynne1991]

Right now, I have IceGuy and Amrun as town. Hoppster and Moratorium seem to be leaning town. Tim_hill is null for me, and DeityKabuto seems to be leaning scum. No one scummy enough for me to vote yet though. Chkflip is leaning town, while I have HelooooNewman as null possibly leaning scum because of the lack of activity.

[Amrun]

Chkflip is no longer in the game...

I'm having a hard time distinguishing between "townie making a bad argument" and "scum trying to push a bad plan" with Hello Newman.

[jilynne1991]

Oops, sorry, I don't know how I missed that. Quilford seems to be leaning town, but I'm going to call it a null read at the moment, since I'm sorta confused.

[Amrun]

Confused about what?

[DeityKabuto]

TROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Unvote
Vote IceGuy

You seriously want a mis-lynch?

If not, get off my case, scum.

scum-trap

[Amrun]

That's a terrible vote. Get a hold of yourself.

[jilynne1991]

Well then, Amrun pretty much took the words out of my mouth, but your defensiveness and language is quite disturbing and it's provoking me to vote you.

[Amrun]

Sadly, I am fairly certain DK is town.

Jilynne, please try expressing some opinions that are not sheeps of me.

What do you think about hypodocing? Why?

[HellloooNewman]

I'm not sure what to say. My logic makes perfect sense to me. Either I am not explaining myself properly or I'm just a fucktard. Either way, I'm not scum.

Re: Me and DK. Our first game together was HardBoiled. I was scum and was able to effectively push his buttons by being a jerk. During the fallout I even apologized for that. Then we started this game and Square Enix VI. And DK says some of the most ridiculous stuff I had ever seen. Hence my belief that ANY game is better off without him.

My vote is still on him for now because I don't see a better option yet. When one emerges, a vote will follow.