Mini 1166: Town Hall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[EmpTyger]

Vote: Rhinox

- no reason to wait, with everyone else checked in. 


Fishy:

Well, if they were convinced that it was a lynch already of course they wouldn't hammer. But this relies on Rhinox thinking everyone is silly enough to believe that without even checking, which seems implausible.

You do realize that, as implausible as it may be, that's what Rhinox had to believe for his *claimed* plan to work?

But, you bring up a good question: What *was* Archaist up to?

He wasn't flailing to fakeclaims or rebuttals or countersttacks.  He played incredibly passively.    
Maybe he was trying to lurk it out- but that does not make sense if his partner is pushing hard for a lynch.
(Unless this was a gambit to clear his bussing partner- but that doesn't really fit with kuz's disappearance, or, really, anything else they seemed to do.)
Maybe Archaist just didn't realize the threat he was under. But, again, that's hard to believe if his partner was attacking him as much as ThAd and iama were.


iama:
While I haven't reread ThAd or you yet, see my above to Fishy.  Honestly, I'd have an easier time believing sAb as mafia than someone who'd been attacking kuz/Archaist all day.

I don't see how the first is remotely relevant, and I don't believe Rhinox is the type to base his kills around power role speculation, especially in this situation.

Why are you certain he wouldn't, especially when deciding between several near-conformed innocents?

(And, was relevant in that the mafia couldn't know that MK wouldn't be around today.  He might have been expecting with C-Worl dead for attention to focus on me and MK, given C-Worl's last. Not saying that's what happened- just that there are other factors beyond the one you are so *certain* is the only one of why C-Worl was killed.)

[Rhinox]

responding to prod. get caught up tonight / this weekend.

[Rhinox]

Is the thread locked or something?

No, but it looks like I need to massprod. Over a day with no posts from anyone is outright ridiculous. If this happens again, the day will end immediately. Also, I'm pulling the deadline a day closer.

I'm trying to decide between voting emp or ThAd. Currenty leaning emp at the moment but I still need to go back and look at his D1.

[sAbLLimINal]

@Rhinox: Do you have any reasons why you are leaning towards emp instead of ThAd?

[ThAdmiral]

Still here, been busy lately.

Rereading iamausername and there are a couple of things I don't like.

Firstly:

I am obvtown after yesterday, so killing me would not implicate Rhinox in any way. I have demonstrated a stubborn refusal to let go of my top suspect, and the ability to get them lynched. Rhinox would have every reason to believe that a) I would come into this day after his blood, and b) I have the power to exert my will upon this town. No way he kills anyone but me.

This doesn't read good. He sounds like he is taking the majority of the credit for kuz/archaist's lynch and basing the fact that he is "obvtown" on this fact. While it is true that iama was influential in getting archaistscum lynched, other people (namely c-worl and myself) were also heavily involved, and if I remember correctly iama was actually absent for large swaths of the game on day 1.

Secondly:
He goes from this...

I don't think I need to explain why ThAd is town.

...to this...

Unvote

VOTE: ThAdmiral

...in 24 hours.

[iamausername]

Well of course you wouldn't like it.

[ThAdmiral]

Admittedly that's true, but I doubt I'd have liked it much more if your sudden change of heart was directed at anyone else either.

[iamausername]

Why didn't you have any problem with me taking most of the credit for the Archaist lynch before I voted for you?

[EmpTyger]

I really am expecting Rhinox to flip mafia.  But I don't see anything lost by a safety play of {sAb, ThAd, iama} claiming today.   


ThAd/iama:
Can either of you explain how kuz/Archaist's play makes sense with the other of you as partner?

[iamausername]

ThAd/iama:
Can either of you explain how kuz/Archaist's play makes sense with the other of you as partner?

kuz apparently ragequit when he got put to L-1 for what he obviously preceived to be poor reasons. I don't think it's difficult to see how his own partner being involved in that wagon would exacerbate that feeling.

Towards the end of the day, Archaist was the leading wagon, with his vote sitting alone on C-Worl. He could have switched his vote to Mitsuro to bring that wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead specifically spoke out against this wagon, presumably to create a false connection between the two of them, and to appear consistent, since he'd listed Mitsuro as a town read earlier.
He could also have switched his vote to ThAd to bring THAT wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead he... doesn't acknowledge this possibility at all. Even though he'd earlier listed ThAd as a scum read.

Now how about you explain how Archaist's behaviour at the end of the day makes sense with

Rhinox

as the partner?

[Beefster]

Votecount 2.4

Rhinox (2) - ThAdmiral, EmpTyger

ThAdmiral (1) - iamausername

Not Voting

- sAb, Rhinox, Fishy

With 6 players alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox: Do you have any reasons why you are leaning towards emp instead of ThAd?

ThAd was the counterwagon to Archaist. while its certainly possible they could both be scum, I'm sorta playing the odds that the 2 leading wagons weren't scum.

I'm leaning Emp, well firstly I suspect him due to POE with help from IAUN's #275 and fishy's claim - if its not {fishy, IAUN, sAb, or me} then its gotta be emp or ThAd. I disagree with #275 that emp pointing out sAb's town tells is itself a town tell for emp - scum emp gains nothing by NOT bringing attention to the town tells since they were already brought up and someone else would have pointed to them again eventually anyways. So its null. I also still don't understand why emp is voting me exactly. I've tried to engage him on a couple of his points and he hasn't tried to explain his position. I get the feeling he doesn't care if his points are valid as long as they "stick".

Secondly:
He goes from this...

I don't think I need to explain why ThAd is town.

...to this...

Unvote

VOTE: ThAdmiral

...in 24 hours.

Be fair. In #275 he listed everyone but fishy as town, and then fishy claimed and became prob town to him. He was going to have to go back on one of his town reads. Its not like nothing happened in those 24 hours to justify his change in view.

[Fishythefish]

Vote: Rhinox

- no reason to wait, with everyone else checked in. 


Fishy:

Well, if they were convinced that it was a lynch already of course they wouldn't hammer. But this relies on Rhinox thinking everyone is silly enough to believe that without even checking, which seems implausible.

You do realize that, as implausible as it may be, that's what Rhinox had to believe for his *claimed* plan to work?

Has Rhinox claimed he had a plan, rather than just made a mistake?

Disliking ThAd's 304. It's a bad post attacking a player who just voted him. That stinks.

@sab: what do you think of Rhinox?

[sAbLLimINal]

ThAd was the counterwagon to Archaist. while its certainly possible they could both be scum, I'm sorta playing the odds that the 2 leading wagons weren't scum.

So you are saying that because Arch flipped scum, ThAd is less likely to be scum because the odds are low of having the 2 leading wagons both be scum? Thanks for the loads of confidence you have in the town!


I consider Rhinox to be in the same boat as ThAd. Looking back at Rhino's iso, he goes from ThAd to MK to Arch in around 48 hours. Even though the deadline was approaching, it seems like he's trying a last-minute attempt when he switched his vote to MK. Then when the deadline was near, his vote on Arch looks more like an "I give up" post.

[ThAdmiral]

Why didn't you have any problem with me taking most of the credit for the Archaist lynch before I voted for you?

They were simpler times then...

Seriously though I didn't really think about you as potential scum because of your actions regarding archaist day 1. Then you voted me seemingly out of nowhere so I looked back at your posts.

ThAd/iama:
Can either of you explain how kuz/Archaist's play makes sense with the other of you as partner?

I'd have to take another look back at the entirety of how day 1 played out. I mean "hardbussing for extreme distancing" is the simple answer but the trick is in determining how likely that would be.
Watch this space.

Be fair. In #275 he listed everyone but fishy as town, and then fishy claimed and became prob town to him. He was going to have to go back on one of his town reads. Its not like nothing happened in those 24 hours to justify his change in view.

This is truth. However what struck me was the tone change - it went from what seemed like 100% certainty in me being town ("I don't think I need to explain why...") to having me as his leading suspect. You have to admit that's odd.

Disliking ThAd's 304. It's a bad post attacking a player who just voted him. That stinks.

I don't really see what stinks about me pointing out someone who could cynically be viewed as attempting to rewrite history in his favor and who has also displayed inconsistent behaviour.

[EmpTyger]

I'm serious about the safety play.  What do we lose if iama, ThAd, and sAb claim today?  If nothing, then... why don't we?


iama:
How about the straightforward theory that Archaist wasn't playing for a mislynch or for his own death- he was hoping for the no-lynch?  (Which is what threw me off D1.)  I don't see him doing any kind of positioning for a post-reveal.  Seems to me like he was lying low and being noncommittal and trying to squeak by.  Which would explain why he didn't vote MK or ThAd or make a strong push to any real candidate, much more cleanly than your theory of why-MK-but-not-ThAd.  (For that matter, that's another possible factor for the nightkill: C-Worl was the only player who Archaist made any real attempt against.)

Whereas with Rhinox, as just pointed out: he hopped onto both the ThAd and the MK counterwagons.  He only voted Archaist hours before deadline, only after your catch all but nailed Archaist's coffin.


Fishy:

Just for fun, what's your explanation for that fake lynching vote?

I've seen times where a player who thinks he is hammered reacts as town / as scum and the town gets a big clue into his alignment without actually hammering. Thats what I was going for.

Honestly, I do see where ThAd is coming from in [304], and I think ThAd's reaction is reasonable.  But as much as I don't get why iama is bending over backwards to consider anyone and everyone except Rhinox, I disagree with ThAd that iama is a possible suspect.  I just don't see why iama as mafia would have revealed that catch about Archaist right before deadline.  I'll still reread ThAd in full, when I get a chance.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:

Just for fun, what's your explanation for that fake lynching vote?

I've seen times where a player who thinks he is hammered reacts as town / as scum and the town gets a big clue into his alignment without actually hammering. Thats what I was going for.

Honestly, I do see where ThAd is coming from in [304], and I think ThAd's reaction is reasonable.  But as much as I don't get why iama is bending over backwards to consider anyone and everyone except Rhinox, I disagree with ThAd that iama is a possible suspect.  I just don't see why iama as mafia would have revealed that catch about Archaist right before deadline.  I'll still reread ThAd in full, when I get a chance.

Hmmm... that is weird from Rhinox. Fake hammering there is pretty dangerous - if it works at all, it's more likely to do harm than good. Why weren't you concerned about the possibility of a no lynch, Rhinox?

ThAd makes two points in 304. The first is pretty meh - iam said he went after his suspect and got him lynched yesterday. He didn't say noone else played a part, and I don't think he really exaggerated. In context, he's saying that Rhinox would have killed him because he went ater Arch hard

and linked him to Rhinox

, which is perfectly sensible. The second is pretty awful - iam settled on me by PoE, but my claim blew that out of the water. So iam had to to a U-turn on a town read, and doing so isn't surprising or scummy. It bothers me that Rhinox pointed this out, and ThAd replied to my statement about 304 by just repeating that iam had been inconsistent.

[ThAdmiral]

It bothers me that Rhinox pointed this out, and ThAd replied to my statement about 304 by just repeating that iam had been inconsistent.

what struck me was the tone change - it went from what seemed like 100% certainty in me being town ("I don't think I need to explain why...") to having me as his leading suspect. You have to admit that's odd.

[Fishythefish]

Ah, somehow missed that. I guess I can see where you're coming from on that one.

At the moment I've got a lot of individual thoughts about people, but they're not really adding up to coherent reads in lots of cases. I'll sort that out this evening, and vote for someone.

[iamausername]

ThAd, what is your point, exactly? You were surprised that I turned on you rather than anyone else when Fishy confirmed himself as town, because you were under the impression that I had a stronger town read on you than anyone else, yes?

So?

What do we lose if iama, ThAd, and sAb claim today? If nothing, then... why don't we?

Am I missing some reason for having the three of us in particular claim, rather than everyone?

[ThAdmiral]

ThAd, what is your point, exactly? You were surprised that I turned on you rather than anyone else when Fishy confirmed himself as town, because you were under the impression that I had a stronger town read on you than anyone else, yes?

Pretty much.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
Because if the game continues after we lynch Rhinox, Fishy is going to shoot me in the face.


Fishy:
Right?

[Fishythefish]

^ not clear. You and Sab are currently the shortlist, but I'm not even 100% sure about that.

[Fishythefish]

(Plus, I'm actually betting the remaining scum is a roleblocker, to counter the doc/vig epic combo.)

[Rhinox]

Hmmm... that is weird from Rhinox. Fake hammering there is pretty dangerous - if it works at all, it's more likely to do harm than good. Why weren't you concerned about the possibility of a no lynch, Rhinox?

I guess I was thinking there was a chance archaist could not pay attention to the VC a few posts before, but others in the town would realize I didn't actually hammer. Also, after archaist responded, or if he didn't respond by the time I got home and checked the thread with a few hours before deadline, I would have announced that I didn't really hammer, but archaist was actually hammered before that could happen so...

I understand where you guys are coming from, but I don't really see how if I were scum I would have expected to get away with causing a no lynch in such a manner. If I wanted to cause a no lynch it probably would have been more productive to not vote achaist at all and just leave my vote on mk. Also, especially after archaist flipped scum, why wouldn't I have argued that I missed page 11 when I voted and really thought I hammered - try to save face and make it look like I was intending to lynch archaist rather than something that could be misinterpretted as trying to prevent archaist's lynch?

If I really wanted to prevent my hypo scum partners lynch, I could have voted ThAd to L-1 and expected Archaist or emp to hammer ThAd. If I'm scum with archaist and wanted to bus, why wouldn't I try to do it in a way that might get me some town-points.

The only angle that would make sense as an argument is if you think I'm archaist's scum partner and was giving him a chance to react to being fake-hammered as a townie would to get out of his lynch and make him quasi-confirmed town for a while. That argument would at least make sense, where as "intending to cause a no lynch" really doesn't if you think about it.