Mini 1166: Town Hall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm... that is weird from Rhinox. Fake hammering there is pretty dangerous - if it works at all, it's more likely to do harm than good. Why weren't you concerned about the possibility of a no lynch, Rhinox?

I guess I was thinking there was a chance archaist could not pay attention to the VC a few posts before, but others in the town would realize I didn't actually hammer. Also, after archaist responded, or if he didn't respond by the time I got home and checked the thread with a few hours before deadline, I would have announced that I didn't really hammer, but archaist was actually hammered before that could happen so...

I understand where you guys are coming from, but I don't really see how if I were scum I would have expected to get away with causing a no lynch in such a manner.

If I wanted to cause a no lynch it probably would have been more productive to not vote achaist at all and just leave my vote on mk.

Also, especially after archaist flipped scum, why wouldn't I have argued that I missed page 11 when I voted and really thought I hammered - try to save face and make it look like I was intending to lynch archaist rather than something that could be misinterpretted as trying to prevent archaist's lynch?

If I really wanted to prevent my hypo scum partners lynch, I could have voted ThAd to L-1 and expected Archaist or emp to hammer ThAd. If I'm scum with archaist and wanted to bus, why wouldn't I try to do it in a way that might get me some town-points.

The only angle that would make sense as an argument is if you think I'm archaist's scum partner and was giving him a chance to react to being fake-hammered as a townie would to get out of his lynch and make him quasi-confirmed town for a while. That argument would at least make sense, where as "intending to cause a no lynch" really doesn't if you think about it.

The bolded is what really convinces me. In this scenario Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon. It's

perfect

for a no lynch, and there's no more onus on Rhinox than anyone else to switch votes. To get a no lynch, you don't bus there.

So. I see that as a bad move - that close to deadline, the risk of a NL outweighs the possible confirmation points - but not so bad as to be unrealistic, and the scum motivation for it is weak to non-existent. Rhinox's end of day play still gives me a solid town read on him.

ThAd on kuz doesn't look like bussing to me. He puts him to L-1 early in the game, a very dodgy move for a scumbag. If ThAd is scum, he went for kuz's lynch hard from the outset, and I just don't see scum trying to kill off their only partner that hard.

So, I'm still very much thinking sAb or Emp, and I won't be voting for another lynch today. On a gut level, I'm liking Emp's posting more than sAb's consistently through the game. I don't think sAb pointing out Rhinox hasn't hammered means too much.

VOTE: sAb

[EmpTyger]

Fishy:
You're ignoring an important piece of context:
Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon,

and iama *just* caught his comafia in a "catch of the game"-level contradiction

.

*That*'s the full context for Rhinox's fakehammer voteswitch.

[EmpTyger]

EBWODP:
Also, if Fishy plans to vigkill sAb (or whoever) instead of me, I should be safety play claiming today instead of sAb (or whoever).

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
You're ignoring an important piece of context:
Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon,

and iama *just* caught his comafia in a "catch of the game"-level contradiction

.

*That*'s the full context for Rhinox's fakehammer voteswitch.

Was it really that big a contradiction? I never really bothered to work it out, the hammer being the obvious move. Still, Rhinox could easily just not have posted without raising serious suspicion.

[ThAdmiral]

This might sound harsh but now I'm thinking sab's 254 could just be bad scum-play. I mean he's only had 25 posts here and I know I've done far stupider stuff in my time...

Also @ fishy: if you think there's a chance of a scum rb don't say who you're targeting tonight!

[sAbLLimINal]

I mean he's only had 25 posts here and I know I've done far stupider stuff in my time...

I have no idea how this is supposed to relate to my 254 being a bad scum-play. Could you explain why?

I'm serious about the safety play. What do we lose if iama, ThAd, and sAb claim today? If nothing, then... why don't we?

I was thinking about mentioning a mass-claim earlier on, but I wasn't sure how everyone else would percieve it. I don't mind claiming if you want me to.

I don't think sAb pointing out Rhinox hasn't hammered means too much.

Well, I'll play the "what-if" scenario. What if arch wasn't paying attention to the VC and claimed a power role? Rhinox set up a scenario that could no way help the town. If Arch had claimed a power role, then we might have had either a no-lynch due to the fact that it was close to the deadline, or MK being lynched.

@fishy: Who do you think would have gotten the most blame (or I guess the person who would get targetted the most) if there was a no-lynch?

[Rhinox]

Well, I'll play the "what-if" scenario. What if arch wasn't paying attention to the VC and claimed a power role? Rhinox set up a scenario that could no way help the town. If Arch had claimed a power role, then we might have had either a no-lynch due to the fact that it was close to the deadline, or MK being lynched.

I think fishy was referring to the fact that you pointing out that it wasn't a hammer isn't a town tell as iaun claimed.

Regardless, I don't follow what you're saying.

firstly, if arch thought I fake hammered, why would he then claim in response to being *hammered*?

secondly, suppose he did claim a PR, isn't not lynching a PR and no lynching better than lynching a PR*^?
*in most situations, depending on the PR and believability of the claim
^see #1, he could have claimed a PR at any time and it would have had nothing to do with me fake-hammering.

thirdly, I didn't actually think archaist was scum at the time I voted. If it was some alternate reality where he wasn't scum and would have reacted in an obv-town way (such as a bah go town type of post), then it could have spared a mislynch and the lynch could have shifted to someone more likely to be scum. Alternatively, he could have given a "bah go scum" type of post and then he gets hammered for realz for claiming scum. Thats the intent of fake-hammer gambits. I already knew there wasn't a high liklihood of it actually acomplishing anything what with the VC a couple posts back, but I didn't think it would hurt anything either. I didn't think about the possible ramifications about it being so close to deadline.

It very well might be that fake-hammering arch at the time wasn't the smartest thing to do, but I don't see how your statement: "Rhinox set up a scenario that could no way help the town." - is at all justified by the "claiming a PR" example you've given, let alone justified at all. Fake-hammer gambits DO infact help the town and I don't think I've ever seen someone argue that its an anti-town gambit in general, although I certainly see now the possible bad outcomes that could have happened with it being in the context of less than a day to deadline. But just because something bad COULD have happened, doesn't mean I did the fake hammer thing with the INTENT of causing bad things to happen. It just wasn't the smartest play to make.

Fishy:
You're ignoring an important piece of context:
Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon, and iama *just* caught his comafia in a "catch of the game"-level contradiction.

*That*'s the full context for Rhinox's fakehammer voteswitch.

You're still not making any sense. If that was the case, if I'm scum I've got 2 options. Bus like hell and hope for town cred, or ignore that iaun said anything and hope he doesn't get hammered, without posting anything for the last 12hrs to deadline. If it was really the "catch of the game" (and it kinda was a good catch), and I'm arch's scum partner, what do you think I was really trying to acomplish by fake hammering? What was my scum motivation for doing it?

[Fishythefish]

I don't think sAb pointing out Rhinox hasn't hammered means too much.

Well, I'll play the "what-if" scenario. What if arch wasn't paying attention to the VC and claimed a power role? Rhinox set up a scenario that could no way help the town. If Arch had claimed a power role, then we might have had either a no-lynch due to the fact that it was close to the deadline, or MK being lynched.

@fishy: Who do you think would have gotten the most blame (or I guess the person who would get targetted the most) if there was a no-lynch?

a) Yeah, I'm not criticising 254 in any way, or counting it against you. It was a protown post.
b) The people on neither of the L-2 wagons - namely Arch, Emp and Rhinox. I have just realised that in my head Rhinox was on the MK wagon before his switch, but actually he was on a non-wagon, which changes things a little - he'd have caught some flak if there had been a no lynch. More so because he should know better than to cause a no lynch by being on a non-wagon. This weakens my conviction that Rhinox is town. Still, he'd recently been on the ThAd wagon, and could easily have returned, so overall the move has to count in his favour.

[ThAdmiral]

I mean he's only had 25 posts here and I know I've done far stupider stuff in my time...

I have no idea how this is supposed to relate to my 254 being a bad scum-play. Could you explain why?

Simple: inexperience.

[Fishythefish]

Where is everyone?

[ThAdmiral]

I'm still here...

[Fishythefish]

What do you think of Rhinox's explanations of his fake hammer post? Why else do you think he's scum?

Rhinox: who's scum?

[EmpTyger]

[strange, I thought I posted this yesterday]

ThAd:
Mafia roleblocker is not a worry: if they roleblock instead of kill, then we'd get another lynch in exchange for the lost vigkill. Town doesn't lose anything.
On the other hand, mafia godfather.  (Unlikely, considering reveals, but that's the point of a safety play.) 

I'll reread sAb to consider your "incompetent" theory after whenever I reread you.

Fishy:

Was it really that big a contradiction? I never really bothered to work it out, the hammer being the obvious move. Still, Rhinox could easily just not have posted without raising serious suspicion.

Read Rhinox's actual post! *He* quotes iama and says, "That actually is a good catch."  

But fine. Let's hypothetically say you lynch and vigkill me and sAb, in whatever order you want, and we're both innocent. Would you be in favor of Rhinox dying tomorrow?


sAb:
Likewise, if there's a Rhinox/ThAd/iama endgame, who would you be praying from beyond the grave that the town picks?


Rhinox:
You found a 3rd choice: Make it seem like you wanted Archaist to die while actually effecting a no-lynch. Best case C-Worl's attacks against me and MK carry. Worst case Archaist dies anyhow the next day buy there's one less lynch for the town.

[sAbLLimINal]

firstly, if arch thought I fake hammered, why would he then claim in response to being *hammered*?

Considering the fact that Arch was scum, if he knew you fake hammered, he could have taken advantaged and claimed a power role or something so that people would unvote him. That's what I would have tried to do if I was Arch.

secondly, suppose he did claim a PR, isn't not lynching a PR and no lynching better than lynching a PR*^?

Well as you said it depends on the claim and then seeing if anyone else counter-claimed. But still, wouldn't that be why it would make sense to claim if Arch (still scum) thought you faked hammered?

"Rhinox set up a scenario that could no way help the town." - is at all justified by the "claiming a PR" example you've given, let alone justified at all.

I get what you tried to do about trying to get the "bah go town" kind of post. But if Arch claimed a PR (and actually was that PR), then that would hurt the town, since at that time we didn't know there was a doc in play to protect him so scum would target him.

Likewise, if there's a Rhinox/ThAd/iama endgame, who would you be praying from beyond the grave that the town picks?

I forgot the order of night actions, but doesn't the night kill come before the vig? I'm still tossed-up between Rhinox and ThAd, but if I had to make a prediction, I'll predict that ThAd is going to immediatly vote for iama and then Rhinox will quick hammer for the scum win.

[Beefster]

Votecount 2.4

Rhinox (2) - ThAdmiral, EmpTyger

ThAdmiral (1) - iamausername
sAb (1) - Fishy

Not Voting

- sAb, Rhinox

With 6 players alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

iamausername has been prodded

[ThAdmiral]

What do you think of Rhinox's explanations of his fake hammer post? Why else do you think he's scum?

Well I've fakehammered a lot of times, I like it as a gambit. But in this case the circumstances make it seem weird.
1. There was a vote count two posts above rhinox's post saying clearly that arch was on 3 and needed 5 to lynch. For obvious reasons fakehammers are best when there hasn't been a vote count in a while.
2. It was right near the deadline. Once again for obvious reasons it is dangerous to fakehammer near the deadline because if you do happen to trick people it can cause a nolynch. Also if the person being fakehammered actually responds in a townie way there may not be enough time to get off them and get on to a more viable target anyway.

In my mind if rhinox is scum there are two very good reasons for him to fakehammer when he did: either to get the nolynch, or to try and get a "townie" reaction out of archaist so people (or even just himself) jump off him. In the second case he could have waited for archaist to say "this sucks, I'm town - good luck everyone etc." and then rhinox could have said "shit, that seems town to me, unvote, vote: whoever" and then avoided archaist being lynched.

[iamausername]

post.

It doesn't seem like this day is progressing towards anything but a Rhinox lynch, and I guess he's the one I'm most likely to have wrongly cleared anyway, so.

I don't know, some time in the next few days I'm going to try to find the time to make a single post laying out in full exactly why I think ThAd is our scum. But since it'll probably be mostly reiterating things I've already said, I can't imagine it being particularly likely to change anyone's minds.

[sAbLLimINal]

In my mind if rhinox is scum there are two very good reasons for him to fakehammer when he did: either to get the nolynch, or to try and get a "townie" reaction out of archaist so people (or even just himself) jump off him. In the second case he could have waited for archaist to say "this sucks, I'm town - good luck everyone etc." and then rhinox could have said "shit, that seems town to me, unvote, vote: whoever" and then avoided archaist being lynched.

This was what I was trying to explain except using the case of actually claiming a power role instead of just saying I'm town.

[Fishythefish]

In my mind if rhinox is scum there are two very good reasons for him to fakehammer when he did: either to get the nolynch, or to try and get a "townie" reaction out of archaist so people (or even just himself) jump off him. In the second case he could have waited for archaist to say "this sucks, I'm town - good luck everyone etc." and then rhinox could have said "shit, that seems town to me, unvote, vote: whoever" and then avoided archaist being lynched.

OK. But both of these seem odd scum strategies compared to either not posting at all or jumping on your wagon.

I'm still really not buying Rhinoxscum. To whoever asked about my preferences after Emp and sAb; I'm not sure it's wise to say, but anyway I don't really know.

[EmpTyger]

The *worst* thing we can do is no-lynch today. I offer myself as a better option than no-lynch.

Neither here nor there, but just looking at D2 play, Rhinox is lying low except to rebut attacks against himself. Everyone else to some degree is trying to argue for their top couple suspects.


sAb:
All nightkills (from vigilantes, mafia, whoever) happen simultaneously.
Why would you be afraid that ThAd would vote iama over Rhinox tomorrow, when he voted Rhinox over iama today?
I don't see anything wrong with ThAd's counterexplanation for [254].


iama:
I've reread ThAd and I don't see anything in his behavior.
I've reread kuz/Archaist and I don't see anything in their behavior.
(If all you have is that Archaist didn't vote ThAd- again, Archaist didn't vote MK. He laid low and played noncommittally. His treatment of ThAd aligned with his treatment of everyone except C-Worl, who was the nightkill.)

Make a ThAd case if you need people to check your logic. But, honestly, you don't need to persuade anyone about ThAd, because *you* will be the one casting the deciding vote tomorrow. (Despite what sAb is making me think twice about him by what he's purportedly worried about...)

With 5 days left, there are more pressing things to persuade people about: lynch someone today, and have tomorrow's options claim today.


Fishy:
Look, if you're not reading the context of D1 before making declarations, I'm done arguing with you. I'll spend my energy persuading iama and ThAd to stop bickering with each other and be the last 2 standing.

Here's the situation:
You're a confirmed innocent.
You effectively control 2 of the town's kills.
You want me and sAb dead.
You're near-singlehandedly going to leave the town in a position where there is a 3-person endgame {iama, ThAd, Rhinox}.
And you are doing everything in your power to shirk your responsibility to help the town resolve that.

So fine. Here's what's going to happen.
You will name who today's lynch will be.
You will name your target tonight.
You will demand claims from the other 3 players, the ones who will be around tomorrow if your 2 picks are wrong.
You (and the 2 you marked for death) will provide final input on which of the other 3 should die, to help the ones alive tomorrow.
Then we will lynch your 1st choice. If game continues:
Then you will kill your 2nd choice.
Then you will die. If game continues:
The survivors tomorrow will be in the best possible position to make the final determination.
And you can say you did everything in your power to help your side win.

[Rhinox]

been busy all weekend. will get caught up tomorrow.

[ThAdmiral]

So fine. Here's what's going to happen.
You will name who today's lynch will be.
You will name your target tonight.
You will demand claims from the other 3 players, the ones who will be around tomorrow if your 2 picks are wrong.
You (and the 2 you marked for death) will provide final input on which of the other 3 should die, to help the ones alive tomorrow.
Then we will lynch your 1st choice. If game continues:
Then you will kill your 2nd choice.
Then you will die. If game continues:
The survivors tomorrow will be in the best possible position to make the final determination.
And you can say you did everything in your power to help your side win.

This plan is fair and I believe will give us the best chance of winning.
Fishy - over to you.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy:
Look, if you're not reading the context of D1 before making declarations, I'm done arguing with you. I'll spend my energy persuading iama and ThAd to stop bickering with each other and be the last 2 standing.

Here's the situation:
You're a confirmed innocent.
You effectively control 2 of the town's kills.
You want me and sAb dead.
You're near-singlehandedly going to leave the town in a position where there is a 3-person endgame {iama, ThAd, Rhinox}.
And you are doing everything in your power to shirk your responsibility to help the town resolve that.

So fine. Here's what's going to happen.
You will name who today's lynch will be.
You will name your target tonight.
You will demand claims from the other 3 players, the ones who will be around tomorrow if your 2 picks are wrong.
You (and the 2 you marked for death) will provide final input on which of the other 3 should die, to help the ones alive tomorrow.
Then we will lynch your 1st choice. If game continues:
Then you will kill your 2nd choice.
Then you will die. If game continues:
The survivors tomorrow will be in the best possible position to make the final determination.
And you can say you did everything in your power to help your side win.

On me not reading; I assume you're referring to the last point, about Rhinox going along with iam's catch. But that

still

just doesn't give Rhinoxscum motivation to bus. He didn't have to say "wow what a great catch, vote Arch". He could very easily have voted ThAd or noone at all. If Rhinox is scum he killed (or took a massive risk of killing) his only partner for a very limited amount of distancing power. Other than perhaps me he played the

worst

day 1 as scum of anyone in the game - ending up lynching his partner without a decent amount of compensation. He then shot simply the wrong person if he is scum - iam was a way better target. I prefer Rhinox to a no lynch, but I don't see him being scum.

I'm not sure about a plan like this (even if everyone agreed) because of the serious possibility of a scum roleblocker, who could seriously change how well any of this worked. In particular, if I reveal my target and it's the wrong target they have the luxury of choosing whether to block me or not.

You say I'm shirking my responsibility to help town resolve the endgame I'm going to put them in. I don't see how you expect me to help resolve that other than by discussing people's suspicions of each other. I really don't see this as a scenario where massclaim will do much - though I can't see it hurting. I also don't see how it's going to help resolve the endgame if I reveal for sure who's going to be in it.

sAb remains my best bet for scum. He's really the only player who hasn't done anything that I find unlikely from scum. Beyond that, I feel pretty lost. Emp is looking more and more protown today. As above, Rhinox's day 1 and night 1 don't look like scum (his day 2 leaves a lot to be desired). ThAd and iam bussed heroically if they are scum, but I'm starting to think that if sAb is town one of them did.

It's fairly obvious that if we don't lynch sAb today I'm going to kill him tonight. If we do lynch sAb today, I haven't decided who I'm going to shoot. If someone demonstrates to me that it would be protown to declare my kill in advance, then I am happy to decide and declare it.

[EmpTyger]

Fishy: 

Mafia roleblocker is not a worry: if they roleblock instead of kill, then we'd get another lynch in exchange for the lost vigkill. Town doesn't lose anything.
On the other hand, mafia godfather.  (Unlikely, considering reveals, but that's the point of a safety play.)

Again, mafia roleblocker is not a worry.

On me not reading; I assume you're referring to the last point, about Rhinox going along with iam's catch. But that still just doesn't give Rhinoxscum motivation to bus. He didn't have to say "wow what a great catch, vote Arch". He could very easily have voted ThAd or noone at all. If Rhinox is scum he killed (or took a massive risk of killing) his only partner for a very limited amount of distancing power. Other than perhaps me he played the worst day 1 as scum of anyone in the game - ending up lynching his partner without a decent amount of compensation. He then shot simply the wrong person if he is scum - iam was a way better target. I prefer Rhinox to a no lynch, but I don't see him being scum.

I think I get the problem- Rhinox is a better player than you.

He realized it would be indefensible to follow iama's catch, hours before deadline, with anything other than a vote on Archaist.  And he realized doing nothing wasn't going to help any either.  He made these basic determinations, which you can't seem to see: that if he did anything else, Archaist would still die, and he'd have been completely exposed.   

Other than that, you're acting like Rhinox bussed his partner all D1 and would have had to have made some horrible misplay N1.
He took pressure off of Archaist, pushed alternatives every moment between post-randomvote up until iama's pre-deadline catch.
And N1 the nightkill was the only player Archaist attacked.  

What's utterly ridiculous is that you'd rather think iama or ThAd mafia than Rhinox!  
You think Rhinox must be innocent because he had the option of staying quiet or switching wagons, but not iama, who made the actual catch? 
You think Rhinox must be innocent because he put Archaist at lynch-1 at the end of the day after trying every alternative else he could, but not ThAd, who put kuz at lynch-1 at the start of the day and pressured him throughout?  

You've had your chance. 

Unvote: Rhinox

I want you repeat the following 3 sentences in your next post, and put it in bold underline so there's no doubt.

Rhinox, ThAd, iama: Claim in that order.
I want sAb dead today.
I will shoot EmpTyger tonight.

(and with any luck, you'll add a 4th: 
I want Rhinox dead tomorrow.)

You may even be right about sAb.  I don't care.  I'm not going to let you waste the town's opportunities.

[Fishythefish]

I think I get the problem- Rhinox is a better player than you.

He realized it would be indefensible to follow iama's catch, hours before deadline, with anything other than a vote on Archaist.  And he realized doing nothing wasn't going to help any either.  He made these basic determinations, which you can't seem to see: that if he did anything else, Archaist would still die, and he'd have been completely exposed.

In my opinion:
1) iam's catch, while significant, was not so overwhelmingly that voting Arch was the only option.
2) If Rhinox had voted ThAd, he would have taken no more heat for it later than anyone else not on the Arch wagon.
3) If Rhinox had not voted, Arch would very likely not have died. If Rhinox had voted ThAd, Arch would very very likely not have died.
I think 3) is beyond doubt - there were only hours to go, and there were two wagons at L-2. Voting either one of them makes it hugely more likely to succeed. The others are obviously matters of judgement, but AFAIC there's just no reason to think that Rhinox was forced to take the only route that didn't mark him as Arch's buddy.

I don't think Rhinox

must

be innocent. But I think his end of day actions make little sense for scum. When I look at day 1, I see that if Rhinox is scum he killed his partner in a situation where he didn't have to, and was never going to look that good for doing so. iam or ThAd being scum would have had to bus their partner hard; Rhinox being scum would have had to avoid being on the actual wagon, but change his mind at the death then make sure his partner got lynched anyway. All the scum death for little of the distancing power. It's possible that Rhinox decided the evidence against his partner was so overwhelming that a mislynch or a no lynch would inevitably lead to their deaths over the next two days. But I doubt it.

Some (probably most) roleblockers can both use a factional kill and block.

Again, I don't see your reasoning behind wanting claims, or wanting to know my nightkill plans - although I'd be glad to hear them. I'm happy to bold underline

I want sAb dead today