Succession Mafia II: OVER!

[springlullaby]

This pings hard. It smells of buddying up while trying not to be obvious by adding a light playstyle berating to the mix, and while still leaving open the option that LL might still be scum. It's just not straightforward.

...what are you talking about?

It's completly streightfoward. I think LL was not recruited by Kinetic, you can tell that by their interaction. It does leave open the possibility that LL was recruited by Albert, but it's still a useful fact to know.

I'm not liking your answer here because I'm thinking that if you were town, you would know that the post I'm putting in dispute isn't a strong post. But maybe I wasn't clear, so my thinking goes like this:

LL: IF I were you, I'd ignore it. We already know Kinetic is scum; if he talks about actual game related stuff, it could work to our advantage, but if we let him distract the town into a pointless side conversation that slows us down, worsens the signal/noise ratio, and waste valuable time, it only helps him and hurts us. Kinetic is smart, he doesn't do anything without a reason, and this is probably a gambit. It looks like he's trying to bait you for tactical reasons, trying to make you mad and keep you talking about non-game-related stuff to make you look worse, to both stall and confuse the town and probably make you easier to lynch. Don't fall for it.

In related news, I am pretty convinced now that at least Kinetic did not recruit Lady Lambdadelta. Baiting your lone cult recruit like that, making them more visible, would be terrible play; and I also don't think LL would get this angry at her cult recruiter, and, no offense, but I don't think she's probably the kind of player who's willing or able to fake that kind of anger. That doesn't prove she's town, of course, but it lowers the odds of her being scum.

The way in which you berate LL at first looks as if you think she is town, and that you wish to prevent her from falling for Kinetic's baiting. But then at the end of your post, you add that she still may be scum, on ABR's team.

1. If you think that LL is town, why the need to put emphasis on the fact that she still may be scum?
2. If you think that she still may scum, on ABR's team, why would you display willingness at preventing her from getting into a fight with the another scum team?

So you see, I think there is something that is not straight-forward here, something that doesn't fit.

The way I see it, the factor of disturbance comes from the fact that you try to achieves two things in that post:
First you try to buddy up to LL because she has done something you judge everyone else sees as town (btw I think you're wrong, and I think emotional display and pointless bickering is the easiest thing to fake as scum), by talking to her as a berating but friendly townie.
Second, you try to remind the town that she still may be scum.

And that's what scum want to do: be friend with townies, but still keep the pool of mislynches as large as possible.

What do you say?

BTW, my opinion on LL is that she hasn't done anything that makes her scum, or town, yet.

[ThAdmiral]

1000!!! woot!

[ThAdmiral]

Oh, come on!!!!

[ThAdmiral]

All I know is that I heard it was or it was discussed and it happened in my newbie game. It was unplanned, but I think that's part of it. The person doesn't want to switch out. It's situational I guess. I guess that's why I've generally lost faith in scumtells... They are situational.

I think a good general rule is that if they are still posting in other games that's a pretty good scumtell, but it seems RG has disappeared from the site completely since the 28th.

[ThAdmiral]

@ spring: list please? Or are you abstaining on purpose.
Like a conscientious objector.


(also sorry for the 4 posts in a row)

[springlullaby]

Lol, go me.

BTW, Thad. I think your list idea isn't very good:
1. It doesn't really achieve anything besides permitting everyone to put up a half-assed list, with no justification for the most part.
2. It has the potential to be manipulative because, IMO, the person you want to vote for =/=the person you have vague suspicion about.
3. It certainly would gives scum the occasion to tend to the lists and do very little else beside that, and you kind of act just like that.

But this is day 1, and I can imagine someone wanting it to move along already as town so bah.

Preview Edit: well that should answer you. In any case, I don't really have 3 suspects. I'm difficult like that.

[Mr. Flay]

Andrius replaces RaudhrGarm, effective immediately.

Eleventh Vote Count of Day One:

xvart - 8 (Yosarian2, Seraphim, ThAdmiral, DrippingGoofball, Chronopie, Fritzler, bvoigt, Nobody Special)
Yosarian2 - 4 (Magister Ludi, populartajo, Katsuki, springlullaby)
Chronopie - 3 (

RaudhrGarm

Andrius, xvart, Herodotus)
Porochaz - 2 (Lady Lambdadelta, Tanarin)
Cobblerfone - 1 (Flameaxe)
Battousai - 1 (Zdenek)
Magister Ludi - 1 (Bunnylover)
Lady Lambdadelta - 1 (Porochaz)
Nobody Special - 1 (Battousai)
ThAdmiral - 1 (Dry-fit)
Seraphim - 1 (Cobblerfone)
populartajo - 1 (ooba)

Not Voting: nobody!

With 25 voters, it will take 13 to lynch. Nightfall will occur no later than the end of June

13th

14th, server time

.

[DrippingGoofball]

Ooba is not a recruit at this time.

[Porochaz]

Neither is your mother.

[DrippingGoofball]

Andrius is replacing! Wooooooooooooooot!

[ThAdmiral]

Get reading andrius. You've got a fair bit of work to do!

In any case, I don't really have 3 suspects. I'm difficult like that.

Booooo!!!

[Flameaxe]

@Cobble: Elaborate on this bias you speak of. S1 is over, this is a new game. What was done has been done and has been pushed aside.

I just meant that you've recruited him before so of course you'd see him as a good recruit, right?

I'm a bit disturbed with RaudhrGarm not replacing out or posting by now. Isn't that usually a scumtell if a player goes on V/LA for too long?

For what its worth, our reasoning didn't have much to do with how scummy he was or wasn't. It was because he was a claimed RB with an innocent result from our cop. This is a bit off track, but oh well. Nothing else to comment on really.

[Cobblerfone]

@Flameaxe: Okay. Guess things really are circumstantial.

Spring is actually convincing enough, I'll vote Yos2 for now since he's the biggest wagon behind xvart anyway. I am so tired of D1.

VOTE: Yosarian2

@Admiral: List retracted for now.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh, I need to give 3 suspects.

Porochaz
Tanarin
Bunnylover

[Katsuki]

We have 4 days left. We gotta speed this thing up.

[Flameaxe]

We have 4 days left. We gotta speed this thing up.

Comments like this do not accomplish what you are asking. Just saying.

[Herodotus]

I understand that you think Chrono was recruited?

No, I don't. He's pretty null for me, in fact. I voted him mostly because I wanted to see another wagon.

UNVOTE: Chronopie pending a case for or against him, though his lynch would be tolerable. He certainly hasn't done anything helpful.

I retract my list of 3.

[Battousai]

@Batt: You consider chrono's calling DGB town and sheeping a vote reasonable at an early point in the game. The only problem with it is that I don't see where it happened in early game, as I said above. The sheeping of the vote happened on monday, and chrono was not voting in any votecount up until the last votecount (votecount 10).

??? When Did I say?

also

unvote, vote Katsuki

[Nobody Special]

We have 4 days left. We gotta speed this thing up.

Comments like this do not accomplish what you are asking. Just saying.

I'm curious why commented on that, but not this?

[Flameaxe]

@Batt: You consider chrono's calling DGB town and sheeping a vote reasonable at an early point in the game. The only problem with it is that I don't see where it happened in early game, as I said above. The sheeping of the vote happened on monday, and chrono was not voting in any votecount up until the last votecount (votecount 10).

??? When Did I say?

also

unvote, vote Katsuki

Thats because you didn't say. I misread completely. Apologies. (It should be directed at Yos, don't know where i got Batt from Yos).

[Yosarian2]

I would like to point out twice now Yos2 has ignored questions directly asked of him by me. You can state you don't want to answer them for whatever reason you like, but ignoring them completley only keeps solidifiying my read on you.

What question did I ignore?

I didn't answer your:

Also, what was the point of your question?

because the reason for my question was obvious, and the only reason you asked that question was to try to manipulate me into saying that you not having played with Kinetic or with Albert was a point in your favor. You were just trying to make yourself look town here by answering a fake question you already knew the answer to, and so I don't think I need to dignify it with a response.

I don't know what other question you're talking about; most of your posts seem to include pointless rhetorical questions that you don't seem to actually expect an answer to (like this one:

Yos, did you remember saying this about quitting?

It's all just cheap retorical tricks and typical manipulative behavior. I don't see any questions you asked me that seemed like they were at all interested in getting any real information.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not liking your answer here because I'm thinking that if you were town, you would know that the post I'm putting in dispute isn't a strong post. But maybe I wasn't clear, so my thinking goes like this:

LL: IF I were you, I'd ignore it. We already know Kinetic is scum; if he talks about actual game related stuff, it could work to our advantage, but if we let him distract the town into a pointless side conversation that slows us down, worsens the signal/noise ratio, and waste valuable time, it only helps him and hurts us. Kinetic is smart, he doesn't do anything without a reason, and this is probably a gambit. It looks like he's trying to bait you for tactical reasons, trying to make you mad and keep you talking about non-game-related stuff to make you look worse, to both stall and confuse the town and probably make you easier to lynch. Don't fall for it.

In related news, I am pretty convinced now that at least Kinetic did not recruit Lady Lambdadelta. Baiting your lone cult recruit like that, making them more visible, would be terrible play; and I also don't think LL would get this angry at her cult recruiter, and, no offense, but I don't think she's probably the kind of player who's willing or able to fake that kind of anger. That doesn't prove she's town, of course, but it lowers the odds of her being scum.

The way in which you berate LL at first looks as if you think she is town, and that you wish to prevent her from falling for Kinetic's baiting. But then at the end of your post, you add that she still may be scum, on ABR's team.

1. If you think that LL is town, why the need to put emphasis on the fact that she still may be scum?
2. If you think that she still may scum, on ABR's team, why would you display willingness at preventing her from getting into a fight with the another scum team?

Two different parts of the post.

The first part was designed to convince LL to stop acting in a way that was anti-town, and that I think a confirmed scum was trying to get her to do. Getting her to stop arguing with Kinetic about irrelevant stuff and instead focus on the game is going to help the town no matter what her alignment is. And, yes, if I am trying to modify someone's behavior and give them advice, especally when I'm trying to get them to calm down an emotional reaction, I'm not going to do it in a hostile way; that's usually completely ineffective, and would have just resulted in her getting more emotional and less productive.

The second part was a semi-related analysis post. In it, I came to the conclusion that LL is not scum with Kinetic. She could, of course, be scum with Albert, but that really doesn't seem especially likely. Of course I mentioned that, because it was obviously the result of the logic of the argument I was making.

So you see, I think there is something that is not straight-forward here, something that doesn't fit.

What's that?

The way I see it, the factor of disturbance comes from the fact that you try to achieves two things in that post:
First you try to buddy up to LL because she has done something you judge everyone else sees as town (btw I think you're wrong, and I think emotional display and pointless bickering is the easiest thing to fake as scum), by talking to her as a berating but friendly townie.
Second, you try to remind the town that she still may be scum.

You're right that I'm trying to achieve two things, but you're totally wrong about what those two things are. I first tried to convince her to stop acting in an anti-town way, and then I make a logical argument that reduced her odds of being scum for the rest of the town (who were at the time trying to lynch her, and then mostly backed off after I made that argument).

Emotional displays aren't that hard to fake as scum, but getting angry about having your gender questioned by a scumbudy in thread? I don't think so. I don't see that happening from either side. If Kinetic was actually attacking her for behavior, that I could see as distancing, but it looks like he was just baiting her and picking on her, trying to piss her off, and it worked. I just don't see scumbuddies doing that to each other. On the other hand, pissing someone off and getting them to explode emotionally is a good way for a scum to get a townie to self destruct, and I think that was probably Kinetic's goal there.

[Cobblerfone]

I should've stuck to my first impression of that post.

UNVOTE: Yosarian2

VOTE: Chronopie

I am so fickle. And I forgot that Chronopie was the hypothetical lead. And his not replacing out when he's LA is somewhat suspicious. More so than RaudhrGarm because RaudhrGarm apparently "dropped off the site".

[xvart]

Basic assumptions about D1 recruits:

1. They don't want to be perceived as a likely recruit target;
   
2. They don't want to be lynched to a greater degree than any other day or any other recruit due to white flag rules; and,
   
3. They don't want to draw any attention and risk being lynched (see previous).

I think these assumptions are fair regardless of any WIFOM arguments to the contrary due to the high risk low reward outcome of playing otherwise.

Chronopie: Possible?

In any case, Kinetic and I will battle for who we think the other will recruit in subsequent days so as to ascertain a leg up on the other. Chronopie and Fritzler are pivotal players in this sense.

In just a few posts Chrono was identified as possible/pivotal recruit by two players (one being Albert, a recruiter). Not a lot of actual suspicion or solid "let us run with this" and, at the time, no real threat to actually be considered as a recruiter. Based on the actual level of legitimate suspicion Chrono's responses, based on the previous assumptions, seem a little too forced to undermine any chance of him being recruited before it can go anywhere. This undermining of his own play when not necessarily warranted was my first red flag.

P.Edit: Not entirely sure why I'm a pivotal player in this sense. Do you know something

I Don't

?

I'm still surprised that I'm being rated highly. In my own estimation I'm a mediocre player at best, with occasional flashes of insight, and prolonged periods of... 'meh' quality play. Selected by Both ABR and Kinetic as a potential recruit for the other, yet recruited by neither, feel free to wifom that.

It is also obvious that Chronopie seemed to be mostly concerned with Albert's identifying him as a recruit and not Ludi's "possible" recruitment, which I believe to have the thought process behind his responses as "if Albert says I'm a recruit target then maybe it will get steam", thus reinforcing my belief that he is Kinetic's recruit. Also, the WIFOM argument against his recruitment seems to be a scum tactic to add an additional level of "unlikeliness" to his recruiting.

then ofc we have the additional layer of wifom in whether they're saying that in order to distance/buddy in order to get me lynched, thus not one of their own teams, thus better for them.

It is also interesting to note that Chronopie includes Kinetic in his WIFOM argument as being identified as a recruit when Kinetic had said nothing about Chronopie, so his inclusion of himself into Kinetic's alleged WIFOM is highly suspect.

Then, once Chronopie gets a moderate amount of suspicion he disappears, probably in hopes that the wagon on me will distract from his attention or hoping the town derails itself into setup speculation or WIFOM arguments. He requires prodding and then talks about going back into lurk mode. He hasn't really contributed anything anytime in the last couple of weeks. He also declared V/LA after he had already been lurking and hiding.

Furthermore, when Kinetic started talking about how great it was that the town was wasting time with ThAdmiral's list function is precisely the point in time when Chronopie was getting a fair number of nods towards a likely recruit target. As I said before, there is no reason Kinetic would say something like this because if the town was legitimately wasting time why should he care unless his recruit was looking like a prime target for lynch.

Chronopie has gone out of his way to seem in compliance with the basic assumptions above, which seems very forced.

More coming when I catch up with the other posts.

[ooba]

Doesn't

He requires prodding and then talks about going back into lurk mode. He hasn't really contributed anything anytime in the last couple of weeks.

clash with

They don't want to draw any attention and risk being lynched (see previous).

A recruit would at least post enough so that he isn't called out for lurking ..