Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

[Regfan]

I apologise for my inactivity, I have finals in a week and I've been focusing on that while also attempting to avoid the frustration that is this game. To be perfectly honest I'm having real difficulty seeing Hez as scum anymore. His attempt at constructing a VCA in which he dabbed into other possible angles however wrong they are read as extremely town-motivated. I don't understand or agree with his case against MoI as it basically winds down to his playstyle but I'm getting a really strong feeling that he believes it which is all that matters.

The more and more I read the argument and discussion between you both the more it's appearing as near-blind tunneling with neither player wanting to admit that there's a possibility they are incorrect about the others allignment. The fact comes down to this, there's no lynch happening between either of you today therefore as much as you might suspect the other player you need to drop the argument, it's being incredibly anti-town and likely motivating players to stop posting. Though I'm getting a sneaking suspicion that the decrease in activity is mafia standing back content with watch you two duke it out until deadline.

Neil's V/LA has been over for quite some time now and he continues to avoid presenting any real content or information that even slightly ressembles scumhunting, it reads as if he's attempting to lurk his way out of the lynch.

I want everyone in their next post to state why they agree or disagree with a Neil lynch.

Town Reads:

HezLucky, MoI, Wicked.

Null Reads:

DeityKabuto.

Scum Reads:

Neil113, zMuffinMan, HavingFitz.

Confirm Vote: Neil113

[zMuffinMan]

I don't agree with a neil lynch because I don't think he's a werewolf.

Hey, Hez. I'll bus my partner for you.

Unvote

VOTE: MoI

And if my partner flips town, I don't think I need to tell you who I'll be tunneling tomorrow.

[zMuffinMan]

How can you have a null read, 3 town reads and 3 scum reads. That is so disingenuous. Holy crap I'm liking the idea of a MoI-Regfan team more and more.

[Regfan]

zMuffin, mind explaining the sudden shift in vote to MoI when previously you've shown minimal suspicion of him.

How can you have a null read, 3 town reads and 3 scum reads. That is so disingenuous. Holy crap I'm liking the idea of a MoI-Regfan team more and more.

I'm having trouble placing DK anywhere to be frank, I've read some of his posts as town-tells and others as incredibly scummy meaning I'm hesitant in placing him in my scum-reads at the moment but if he is indeed town then I've read someone incorrectly.

[zMuffinMan]

Bad feelings towards the neil wagon. Looks to be infested with werewolves.

How can you have a null read if you have 3 town reads? At least one of them should be null. Or a better explanation: your reads are contrived.

[zMuffinMan]

To be clear, these last couple pages make me think it's less likely Hez is a werewolf. My gut says he's scum, but my gut also says that neil wagon is werewolf-infested.

FTR, I'd be happy with a Regfan lynch today, too. For someone that's calling out neil for active lurking, you've posted what? Like once in the last week?

[neil1113]

Currently writing my responses to people, then making the cases, then going to post them. Good gosh, there's a lot to post though, so PLEASE be patient with me. And if I'm at L-1, someone back off my Wagon so that I don't get accidentally hammered until the post comes? I'm working on it right now, and it should be up soon. Be patient though, last night was crazy IRL, so I apologize for not following through with my promise then. But I will not flake on this promise. (Any responses to this post, will not be included in my current post that I'm writing, FYI.)

[neil1113]

Let me state ahead of time, that I do not follow, nor will I acknowledge VCA's, or NKA's, nor will I make any responses to anyone who posted anything directed at me in them. If you did, and want me to respond to it, please respond to this post with the questions / comments / concerns you may have. Also before I get into my serious reads:

Is he dead in that game too?

I laughed. Hard. Okay onto seriousness.

Wicked, as promised...

Spoiler: Wicked

While I don't like DK's vote for neil, neil's response is terribly scummy. I suspected that some of his previous suspicions/accusations in this game were based on OMGUS,

but I am 110% certain that that is the case for his DK vote.

Firstly, he is voting DK because he thought the reasoning DK gave for voting him was bad, however, this was the same reasoning DK used against me. So, if neil1113 really had a problem with this logic,

then why didn't he say anything when I was being attacked for it?

Secondly, I also believe it is OMGUS, because prior to the vote, neil had made no mention of suspecting DK (at least from a skim of his iso). So all of a sudden,

DK makes one post he has issues with and he becomes more voteworthy than anyone else.

I'm not buying it. Thirdly, I'm surprised he didn't vote for HezLucky: after skimming his ISO from day 2, he never expressed any interest in voting HezLucky

despite not ever giving any sign of that suspicion diminishing (that I can remember) and considering that was who he had been voting at the end of day 1, I find this suspicious.

Also, he hadn't been voting anybody at the time of his vote for DK almost as if he was waiting for something suspicious to happen, which seems odd considering he was able to find a place for his vote at the end of day 1. I'm pretty sure neil is scum after this. I'd move my vote there, but I'm not necessarily certain he's a Werewolf (the group I would like to go after today) and I'd also like to finish catching up.

Bold #1. So you're certain that my vote is OMGUS, and you're points basically are "Blah, blah, OMGUS, blah, blah, OMGUS, blah blah." You could've made this a lot easier for me to respond to by simply saying, "Hey bro, I think you're case on him is OMGUS, and why didn't you choose to continue to push the HezLucky lynch?" Then I could've given you a very simple defense, and a very simple answer as to why my reads changed. Instead what did you do? You didn't ask, you didn't really want to know, you just simply accused. You're whole focus here doesn't seem to be to find the truth, but instead to cast suspicion. I find that scummy, because why wouldn't the townie want to go in the RIGHT direction with clarity, and not in the direction that SEEMS right, but has never actually been clarified?

Bold #2. You answered it in your suspicion. Because YOU were being attacked. Your battle is not my battle, and I must not have seen that. Please take note however, that NOBODY else in this game has mentioned him doing that to you.

Bold #3. When someone comes on the scene, and suddenly their scum-drops seem to just explode (especially with a falty, stretched, fake case), you don't buy someone changing their suspicions because of that? This is a matter of playing style then, and I can't argue against your style.

Bold #4. I don't expect you to actually read my posts, and understand what I'm saying all the time. So I won't come from a "You didn't read my posts!" perspective but instead, I'll say this. If I did not give a reason for not voting HezLucky for most of Day 2, it's because I had no reason to vote him particularly above others.

ISOing CJ was to no avail, as my suspicions brought me with 4 possible suspects of his partners (which obviously is wrong, as there can only be 2 partners of his.) They are:

Hez,

Deity

, Sloth, and

DK

.

Lol. I guess you find DeityKabuto twice as suspicious as the other two players? Who is

really

your fourth suspect for cjdrum's partner?

Obviously I don't suspect him twice. Honestly, I don't remember what was on my mind when I was posting that, but there was a 4th man that must've been replaced by "DK" by accident. I have a lot of new reads and I've read over the thread a few times since then, so my mindset has changed a good amount from that post.

From the point of your post, I believe that's all the suspicion you attempted to cast. I hope I answered it, and if not feel free to question me again.

Regfan, you're case seemed to have been summed of as follows...

Spoiler: Regfan

1. It revolves around his decline in content, his avoidance of the spotlight whenever he's not mentions.

This is your opinion. I can't argue this fairly. There are numerous reasons as to why my declince in content could've happened, and my "avoidance of the spotlight", if that is indeed what I've been doing, could have numerous reasons as well. It's your opinion that it is scummy, because you do not know the reasons why. For now, let's forget about the V/LA and just think Neil must not actually have a real life, and that he really is just such scum in this game with his mind so wrapped up in it, that he's taking a fake break all the while actually getting in our heads thinking he's away.

2. The lack of stances he takes in regards to reads, he attempts to Omgus or defend himself rather than actually scumhunt.

The only stance in which you can state I remotely took OMGUS in, is Deity. Other than that, prove that I have not scumhunted? Here's the problem before you try, you can't. Again, that's a matter of opinion. Remember, I was on the lynch for Mafia Member CJ? Yeah, with MY help, we lynched a MAFIA member. That's scum hunting, rather you're little mind likes it or not.

3. His interactions or lackthereof with Cjdrum reads as if they're partners, especially due to Cjdrum stating "One of Empking/Neil are scum" and never voting Neil upon Empkings flip.

I can't defend CJ's actions. If you have a case against ME, make it. Not against a US, because a WE cannot be accurately defended in this situation. However, my lack of interaction with CJ is very simple. He never really caused an outcry in my mind that would spark my full interest. Thus he slipped by under my radar for most of that day.

4. PoE, I have quite solid town-reads on Wicked/MoI and I don't see Cjdrum being the last townie.

PoE is not a scum-hunting tactic. It's not stable, it's never produced confident reads, it's likely wrong more times then not, and in cases like this, it could make you play against your win condition and lynch town.

and slide through the game.

Do you consider a V/LA to be "sliding through the game?" Or are you referring to something else with this?

Magna, you're posts:

Spoiler: MagnaofIllusion.. or something like that

After reviewing neil's ISO I think Regs' summary of the case on Neil is pretty accurate.

His activity has dropped WAY off after the day one blow-up with Empking. He's not committed to any strong reads or even voted Day 3. I don't see a strong push towards Havingfitz Scum developing so I'd rather have my vote somewhere effective.

You reitterated exactly what Reggie said. So instead of making a response AGAIN to it, look at my responses to him.

Why didn't you actually vote DK in this post (would not take any time) if you are sure he is scum as opposed to leaving your vote idle. I eagerly await the explanation for this.

Because I hate when Wagons form and I'm not around to see it form / see it to completion. If Deity starts to get pressured, and his responses suddenly convince me he's town, but nobody else sees it, I'd like to step in and defend him. I can't if I'm away at V/LA. I'm not sure if this is the response you're looking for.

I think he is likely Werewolf. I have a strong Hez is Evil Sheep read and I can’t buy that all three Evil Sheep were on the Empking L-1 wagon.

PoE again. Why do we fall into this fallacy?

Okay I think that's everyone. Now so that you all know what to look forward to, and what's to come:

1. An analaysis of the last 6 pages.
2. My reads.
3. Why I'm confident that Magna is a Wolf.
4. Why I'm pretty sure that Hez is his partner. (Whatatwist!)
5. Why I'm not hunting for Mafia right now, though my suspicions for the final two are Wicked and Regfan (though neither of these reads could I stand on.)

[HezLucky]

So this means you'll be vote #3 on the Magna wagon yes?

SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET

[neil1113]

So this means you'll be vote #3 on the Magna wagon yes?

SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET

Yeah I'm actually pretty excited. I think this will be another town win under my belt! For the record, you may have to wait a bit for it though. Reading a book, eating lunch, and then I might get back to the final post.

[Umbrage]

Vote Count:

neil1113 (4) - Regfan, Wickedestjr, DeityKabuto, MagnaofIllusion (One vote away from lynch!)
DeityKabuto (2) - havingfitz, neil1113
MagnaofIllusion (2) - HezLucky, zMuffinMan

[havingfitz]

@MoI...I based my comments of your VCA on the comments you made. Show me one definite stance you made in your conclusions. And by definite stance...I mean not a this or that deduction. As far as Boldgate goes...you have made far more of an issue with it than I have. Talk about deflecting attention from more serious suspicions.

I find it very suspect that you spend another wallpost critiquing (sp?) the person you are vointg and one of your top suspects (Hez) and then vote for the leading wagon. It looks like self preservation FMPOV. I still think DK is extremely suscious, regardless of his VI categorization by people (VIs can be scum too), and I'm amazed that he continues to elude votes. I have you and DK as my top suspects and neil and zMM a distant 3rd and 4th. The fact zMM is voting you and neil is leaning that way has me very interested in your flip (sans a DK flip) and as my DK vote is going nowhere, I'll move to my #2.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Magna

[DeityKabuto]

@MoI...I based my comments of your VCA on the comments you made. Show me one definite stance you made in your conclusions. And by definite stance...I mean not a this or that deduction. As far as Boldgate goes...you have made far more of an issue with it than I have. Talk about deflecting attention from more serious suspicions.

I find it very suspect that you spend another wallpost critiquing (sp?) the person you are vointg and one of your top suspects (Hez) and then vote for the leading wagon. It looks like self preservation FMPOV. I still think DK is extremely suscious, regardless of his VI categorization by people (VIs can be scum too), and I'm amazed that he continues to elude votes. I have you and DK as my top suspects and neil and zMM a distant 3rd and 4th. The fact zMM is voting you and neil is leaning that way has me very interested in your flip (sans a DK flip) and as my DK vote is going nowhere, I'll move to my #2.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Magna

Hammer neil, that Magna, we all know neil is the safer lynch.

[havingfitz]

Hammer neil, that Magna, we all know neil is the safer lynch.

I strongly disagree that neil is a safer lynch than Magna (or you for that matter). Hammer Magna, then based on his flip go from there.

If Magna flips werewolf I think that clears a few people from consideration tomorrow (at least as wolves)...notably Hez, you and neil (and I) as I can not envision any scenario where MoI is aligned with any of the aforementioned players. I don't see a wolf bussing his partner unless absolutely necessary or unless a wagon is headed towards a certain lynch...which with the competing neil wagon, both are equally viable at this point.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Note for future reference – note how Muffin and Neil’s votes suddenly appear on me with not a bit of suspicion before their voting. Hez has been pointlessly tunnelling and Having is similarly deluded. Yet suddenly when Neil again reaches L-1 my wagon springs out of no-where.

--

This is not a meta. (Although I do read mafia games to hone my scumdar and you have been in those games that I've read before -- this is not a you-specific meta)

Nice way to NOT answer the question. Stop dodging the question.

What is the source of your “strong belief” that you know what Town-MoI would think?

Nightkill WIFOM. I did this before, now you're doing it.

You brought up the WIFOM and, in my eyes, it hurts your case.

I’d like to draw everyone’s attention to the following two excerpts from Hez’s 773. Notice the inconsistency … he offers up that he used Nightkill WIFOM himself earlier. If that was the case you would think he would find it credible. Yet he ends by saying it weakens my case. Inconsistency … you are soaking in it.

Also I’d also like to draw attention to Hez’s theory –

That his personal ‘Town read’ (which he admits was not widely shared when he says “which was asked to be explained by multiple players”) was so convincing that it rendered Caboose unlynchable.

And that is much more likely a reason for LMP’s Night kill as opposed to LMP having a strong scum read on the werewolves.

I don't buy that at all? Does anyone besides Hez seriously consider it credible?

--

Hey, Hez. I'll bus my partner for you.

Unvote
VOTE: MoI

And if my partner flips town, I don't think I need to tell you who I'll be tunneling tomorrow.

Attention all Town players

– note that Muffin is ‘setting up lynches’ right here but the two players who have made this a strong part of their case on me say nothing about it.

Yup, that’s right – Hez and Having don’t say “Muffin is scum for setting up lynches”. The hop right on board.

Scumtastic.

How can you have a null read, 3 town reads and 3 scum reads. That is so disingenuous. Holy crap I'm liking the idea of a MoI-Regfan team more and more.

Um, whut? This is just plain bad. Ostensibly Regfan who ‘knows he’s Town’ should have 3 Town reads. There are 4 Town players left in the game.

You forget that being part of the Mafia Muffin?

--

Let me state ahead of time, that I do not follow, nor will I acknowledge VCA's, or NKA's, nor will I make any responses to anyone who posted anything directed at me in them.

So you are just going to ignore whatever you convienantly don’t like. Noted.

Yeah I'm actually pretty excited. I think this will be another town win under my belt!

For the record, you may have to wait a bit for it though. Reading a book, eating lunch, and then I might get back to the final post.

Hmmm … that’s funny because a single lynch doesn’t accomplish the bolded since there are 4 scum remaining. Appealing to your ‘Towniness’? Scumtastic.

--

@MoI...I based my comments of your VCA on the comments you made. Show me one definite stance you made in your conclusions. And by definite stance...I mean not a this or that deduction.

I just gave you this. Feel free to refer back to my list and ignore it again.

I find it very suspect that you spend another wallpost critiquing (sp?) the person you are vointg and one of your top suspects (Hez) and then vote for the leading wagon. It looks like self preservation FMPOV.

1. Hard for me to attack Neil when he hasn’t posted ANY content since before I started V/LA. Scummy point 1 for you.
2. Self preservation? That’s absurd. When I voted Neil to L-1 I had a single vote. Scummy point 2 for you.

I have you and DK as my top suspects and neil and zMM a distant 3rd and 4th. The fact zMM is voting you and neil is leaning that way has me very interested in your flip (sans a DK flip) and as my DK vote is going nowhere, I'll move to my #2.

Of course you are interested in my flip. I’m not your partner

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh look, Having himself doesn't even consider for a moment that I could be possibly Town.

He just wants one of his biggest detractors out of the way.

Scumtastic.

[Wickedestjr]

Sorry, I haven't been posting much recently. I've been pretty busy and, admittedly, kind of lost interest in the game (but that should change once we have two more flips to think about tomorrow).

havingfitz, I thought I remembered you saying you thought DK and neil were the werewolves. Now neil is at L-1 and you vote Magna? What gives?

I need to take a quick look at the MoI bandwagon.

[Wickedestjr]

Mod: What happens if a majority hasn't been reached? No-lynch?

... because it looks like this will end in a no-lynch unless

havingfitz[/b] switches his vote to neil: HF is the only player that seems to have expressed any support of the bandwagon he isn't currently on.

havingfitz, you said you believed neil was a Werewolf (with DK). Would you rather this day end in a no-lynch or a neil lynch?

[Umbrage]

OK, this has gone on long enough. Activity has taken a dive, and you're clearly nowhere near agreement. I'm setting a deadline of one week.

If that deadline is met, I'm declaring no-lynch and moving the game directly into night.

Here's your countdown.

[havingfitz]

Oh look, Having himself doesn't even consider for a moment that I could be possibly Town.

He just wants one of his biggest detractors out of the way.

Scumtastic.

I've always got a sliver of doubt when I vote someone. Of course you could be town. However I think you are definitely scum and hopefully wolf. Were you considering me town when you voted me on two seperate occasions today?

---

havingfitz, I thought I remembered you saying you thought DK and neil were the werewolves. Now neil is at L-1 and you vote Magna? What gives?

I find them both suspicious. Based on my VCA I thought they could be linked and I was leaning as werewolves. neil however is one of my weaker suspicions and his recent exchange with DK and DK's strong push to lynch him have me questioning that connection. Magna is my #2 suspicion and the way he has tap danced around DK...and vice versa for that matter, have me wondering if they couldn't be linked together. That's why I think a DK vote on Magna would help refine reads on everyone. As no one seems to be up for a DK wagon/lynch I would rather go for my strong #2 than for my uncertain #3 or 4.

havingfitz, you said you believed neil was a Werewolf (with DK). Would you rather this day end in a no-lynch or a neil lynch?

If we were on the verge of a no-lynch I would probably vote for anyone other than you and Regfan who I am firmly leaning town towards. So no...I'd rather lynch neil than have a no lynch. On that train of thought...I would rather have a Magna lynch than a neil lynch and I'd rather have a DK lynch than a Magna lynch.

[HezLucky]

Magna, you are great at raising completely relevant points on many players (such as with your last post)

The problem is, because of your playstyle, your inability to admit that you're wrong, and the fact that you are capable of making a case on anyone, I just cannot believe a word you say until you flip.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Townies - Note for the record -

Having and Hez specifically dodged addressing their blatant inconsistency on the scuminess of setting up lynches. Yup ... its not a real scum-tell if it isn't applicable to all who use it.

Scumtastic.

[HezLucky]

I've been on Muffin all day.

Have you not been paying attention?

[HezLucky]

Wicked, talk to me. You're the person I want to have a conversation with right now about this current situation we're in.

Regfan is also sensible, but may be scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I've been on Muffin all day.

Have you not been paying attention?

I've noticed you said NOT ONE WORD about him setting up lynches. It was a cardinal sin for me ... but I don't expect you to be consistent when you aren't really scum-hunting.

Funny that your 'partner' pick for me ends up on my wagon.

Even funnier still that despite all the 'suspicion' you've shown for him I don't really recall your vote ever landing on him. I'll have to re-look at your ISO but my memory at this point said you've given tons of lip service to a Muffin lynch but never really actually pushed it.

It's ok Hez. Scum have to do whatever they can to win.