Mini 1183: Mafiamatical Mathia - Game over!

[Twistedspoon]

why plague indeed?

[implosion]

Last scum is probably either morthas

or plague

.

Why plague?

I feel like I've eliminated everyone else for weak reasons (hence the probably, since some of the reasons are really weak).

Juls' hammer is obviously a towntell since it fell on scum and it would be pretty insane for scum to hammer their partner that early in a 9-person game, where we either only have 2 scum or the town had a ridiculous amount of power. Either way, it would be way too risky for scum to hammer, most likely. Oopid, I still think the selfvote is a towntell. TS looks less like scum after the way that he was pushing kalofer on day one with the flip. I still have a town read on wicked in general. I liked don's reaction to the hammer (this is probably one of the weakest reasons though). I really haven't seen anything from plague that makes me think he's town, even as weakly as someone like don.

Unvote, vote: plague

for now.

[Twistedspoon]

Juls' hammer is obviously a towntell since it fell on scum and it would be pretty insane for scum to hammer their partner that early in a 9-person game

really?

she could just hyperbus her partner and be confirmed town for the rest of the game. what's so hard about that?

I remember in one of my games I fakeclaimed one-shot cop as scum and tried to ride to the endgame with a guilty result on my partner.
and I've seen it in other games too

but I don't think Juls is a viable lynch at this stage anyways so enough on that topic from myself.

I want to hear from morthas about kalofer's talk in their QT

[don_johnson]

vote: juls

not only do i think its viable, but i think its necessary. the hammer only made sense to me if juls was neighbor. she's not. the situation is too wifomic as to whether or not she'd hyperbus, so i think the best option is to remove her from the equation. provided juls is not the final scum, if town has an investigative role, they should be investigating morthas. doc should be randomizing protection among those they think are town. i don't see any other way for there to have been no nk other than doc, so yeah. we need more from morthas. wicked needs to get back in here as well.

[Oopidstay]

not only do i think its viable, but i think its necessary. the hammer only made sense to me if juls was neighbor. she's not. the situation is too wifomic as to whether or not she'd hyperbus, so i think the best option is to remove her from the equation.

Vote: don_johnson

This is scum trying to take advantage of an opportune target, folks. It would be a lot harder to push a Juls mislynch after today, since the heat she's taking from the D1 hammer would've died down...

Juls was town even before the hammer move, and there are a

lot

better reasons to think it's town-oriented than to think it's scum-oriented. Here, allow me:

Why didn't she simply wait for the Kalofer wagon to blow over? It was already appearing to head that way, so why not let the storm pass by instead of killing her partner? In a game this small, there's likely only two scum, so hammering your partner early on D1, when there was a chance he could've lived through it, is a horrible tactical decision.

[Oopidstay]

EBWOP: Before the nitpickers chew me to pieces, she

appeared

town even before the hammer move.

[Twistedspoon]

so don is either the bravest, boldest scum in the world for trying to lynch an 'obvtownie' or he finds a legitimate reason to be suspicious of Juls.
I believe the former

If don was scum I can't see him taking such a gamble by trying to start a Juls wagon. He was in Jul's good books too.
Don is town and suspects Juls. Simples

whether you agree with his suspicions of Juls or not is irrelevant. Suspecting Juls, the most ruthless (and obvtown according to oopid) player in this game would be a suicidal thing for scum to do.

[theplague42]

Alright so I'm reading now after skimming, but I have something to say to implosion. You're trying to use a null hypothesis to lynch me? That's not very logically sound. For those of you who don't know, a null hypothesis is a way to determine something by eliminating all other possibilities. Let's say that I think "X caused Y." But there's no way to prove that "X caused Y." But I can try to determine that "nothing but X caused Y" which is a null hypothesis. It's impossible to actually prove one; it can either be disproven or not disproven.

[theplague42]

Regarding don, Oopidstay makes a good case, but I think don is semi-confirmed town. Look back at the post 85 votecount and then don's post 91. There was only one vote on Kalofer at the time that don voted; Wicked's vote. There wasn't even any pressure towards Kalofer either. There was zero reason to bus/distance at that time.

How about Kalofer's post 5 ISO? Being forced to show people's scummy actions could lead him to distance from his partner before being hammered. Morthas and Wicked are the two he named; Morthas is confirmed-ish and Wicked is still towny. So never mind then.

[theplague42]

so don is either the bravest, boldest scum in the world for trying to lynch an 'obvtownie' or he finds a legitimate reason to be suspicious of Juls.
I believe the

latter

FTFY if I understand you correctly.

[Twistedspoon]

yeah, I meant latter

[Juls]

I'm not sure why implosion excluded Wicked. I think Wicked is a pretty strong candidate for scum. His only "case" on me was uber weak and OMGUS. (is that the second time I have said uber in this thread? weird.) Anyhow, you all should be applying your pressure there. And he is lurking it up hard. He said Kalofer and Oopid were scum before the wagon built and I gave him pressure to provide reasons. When he did he was trying to back off of it.

To be honest, I'm starting to doubt that Kalofer and Oopidstay are scumbuddies after rereading the thread, but I think they are both suspicious individually.

I don't think Don is scum but don't even for one minute let yourself think that don isn't a "bold" player.

He is

.

@TS: Stop talking about ongoing games.


Here is my list as of this moment:

Town

Juls - obviously
Morthas - don't think the mod would make two Mafia neighbors unless there were 3 or more and he had to ask Hoopla, so yeah, he is 99.9% town.
implosion - For this. I don't think scum would ask this question after his buddy was just hammered.
Oopidstay - Was excited for the day to start back
Twistedspoon - Playing a bit different today then yesterday, his suspicion of me, while wrong, is townish but not 100% sold on him yet. Maybe he is just bitter that I hammered his buddy.
don_johnson - I was null yesterday on him. He's more of a PoE to be honest.
theplague42 - I had a town read yesterday but I don't know now. He needs a reread. Same as don on the PoE.
Wickedestjr - reasons noted above.

Scum

[theplague42]

Oopidstay - Was excited for the day to start back

?????

[Juls]

Quick posting, eager to figure out last scum. It didn't seem like scum who would post, but maybe not be so enthusiastic about it.

[Twistedspoon]

implosion - For this. I don't think scum would ask this question after his buddy was just hammered.

why not?

maybe he was bitter about his buddy being hammered

[Morthas]

@Morthas: Do you have anything to share with us about Kalofer's play in the Neighbor QT?

Kalofer been trying to convince me to join the Twisted bandwagon, other than that he was also jokingly undermining me and saying as per usual how much he thinks i'm scum (saying i don't scumhunt etc.). The QT ended with me making fun of him getting votes on him again aaand he didn't respond to it. He didn't mention anyone other than Twisted the whole time.
Twisted confirmed town? Think so, i doubt he was trying to bus him in our private chat.

[Twistedspoon]

I assume you had daytalk then

[Hoppster]

Day 2, Votecount 5

theplague42 - 1

[L - 4]

(implosion)

Twistedspoon - 0

[L - 5]

Morthas - 0

[L - 5]

Juls - 1

[L - 4]

(don_johnson)

implosion - 0

[L - 5]

Wickedestjr - 1

[L - 4]

(Juls)

don_johnson - 1

[L - 4]

(Oopidstay)

Oopidstay - 0

[L - 5]

No Lynch - 0

[L - 5]

Not Voting - 4 (Morthas, Wickedestjr, Twistedspoon, theplague42)

Deadline: Friday June 24th at 15:30 BST

Time left:

(expired on 2011-06-24 10:30:00)

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Morthas is V/LA until further notice.
Wickedestjr is V/LA Saturday and Sunday.

Reminder: All players should bear this in mind.

Edit: don_johnson was previously being voted by don_johnson. This has been corrected (to Oopidstay).

[Juls]

I don't think declaring Twisted confirmed town is a good thing.

I have my reasons that I cannot discuss at the moment.

[Juls]

More votes on Wiked please!

[Twistedspoon]

I don't think declaring Twisted confirmed town is a good thing.

I have my reasons that I cannot discuss at the moment.

well why mention then if you can't discuss them?

if anything it only makes you a more prime scum kill candidate since you have extra info it seems

[Juls]

Because I cannot discuss ongoing games.

[Juls]

Hey theplague42, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?
Hey Twistedspoon, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?
Hey Morthas, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?
Hey implosion, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?
Hey don_johnson, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?
Hey Oopidstay, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?

[Twistedspoon]

oh, okay

I think I know what you mean actually

I'd like to point out that the situation is different but I do realise it would probably be rash to put me as confirmed town at this point anyways
If we're thinking of the same game hopefully it shouldn't be too long before we can discuss it

[Juls]

@mod: You have don_johnson voting himself in the previous vote count, is this intentional?

Mod-Edit:

Fixed. Thanks for pointing this out.