Newbie 1104 -- Game over

zMuffinMan · Post Post #600 (ISO) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:41 pm

I haven't seen anyone say they have 6 town reads, so there must be a reason he is scum by PoE, even if it is mainly PoE.

Twistedspoon · Post Post #601 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:55 am

as soon as otolia replaces in he sticks a shabby vote on noragar with a shabby reason. bus?

also, just Ctrl+F noragar in the Otolia iso. It's what I'd expect from a scum to buddy reference

zMuffinMan · Post Post #602 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:02 am

Your reasons are just bad WIFOM. I don't see anything discernible that makes me think he's more likely scum with Otolia than town who Otolia just happened to interact with the way he did. The initial vote in particular - I don't think that was bussing or distancing of any kind. He wasn't going to get much town cred for bussing his partner there, and considering his partner is a rolecop (and he's a goon), he'd be setting himself up for a loss. I'd be more inclined to believe this was evidence of some sort if the reason or his vote wasn't really, really, really weak.

Also, noragar just looks really town to me. I've already touched on a few of the things I think makes him look town (the way he handled his claim, it's not the way I picture a rolecop at L-1 acting).

zMuffinMan · Post Post #603 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:04 am

EBWOP:

I wrote:The initial vote in particular - I don't think that was bussing or distancing of any kind. He wasn't going to get much town cred for bussing his partner there, and considering his partner is a rolecop (and he's a goon), he'd be setting himself up for a loss. I'd be more inclined to believe this was evidence of some sort if the reason for his vote wasn't really, really, really weak.

Referring to Otolia in this whole paragraph, in case it wasn't obvious. Also fixed a typo.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #604 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:38 am

So I read CC in ISO, and my read on that slot hasn't changed in the slightest.

The stuff he's saying isn't necessarily 'town-motivated' or whatever you want to call it, but it reads like genuine newb-town who's come from a different background (SC2-mafia). ISO#8-#14 in particular (pretty much all of p3). He wasn't playing well, he wasn't actively scum hunting, but nothing makes me think he's scum at all.

I'll get around to responding to this eventually. Maybe. If I can be bothered. It's reallllllllllly long though, eyes glazing over, etc.

Twistedspoon · Post Post #605 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:55 am

so who's the scum then?

I'm really not seeing forest scum

zMuffinMan · Post Post #606 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:02 am

It's Espeonage or Forest. Outside chance of Haylen. I think Espeonage. Thus my vote.

Put it this way... If Espeonage is lynched and does flip town, I'll be re-evaluating my reads before I do anything tomorrow, but his D1 play screamed scum to me and his play thus far D2 hasn't really done much to change my mind. You seem convinced that he can't be scum because he 'attacked' you and Haylen, but that's just a poor reason to think he's not scum. That said, if you are actually getting town vibes from his posts, and you can explain why, I'll hear you out.

Twistedspoon · Post Post #607 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:47 am

i trust my gut, not my generic half-baked tells

i make up daft tells I've I've been doing to try and justify my gut to those who do not trust my gut

i end up looking like a VI though sometimes. Like now

zMuffinMan · Post Post #608 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:52 am

I'm not asking you to go against your gut read, I'm asking you to explain it, because if your gut read is that Espeonage is town, then it's vastly different to my gut read and I want to know exactly why.

Twistedspoon · Post Post #609 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:56 am

i don't think scum would lurk d1.
his d2 play looks town despite being brief

Twistedspoon · Post Post #610 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:56 am

actually, I want his full reads before I cast judgement (same for forest and choas)

gbevilchaos · Post Post #611 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:52 am

Twistedspoon wrote:actually, I want his full reads before I cast judgement (same for forest and choas)

Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

forest_air · Post Post #612 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:53 pm

Twistedspoon wrote:i don't think scum would lurk d1.
his d2 play looks town despite being brief

Actually, lurking d1 gives scum the opportunity to pretend to be town and say :"Yes I was suspecting so-and-so all along" on d2. But on the other hand, townies may not want to risk lynching a townie on d1 so they'll opt to not do much at all.

Lurking in general isn't really good for the town, but some people don't have as much time as others so that's also something to keep in mind. Some people as scum may post a lot to arouse suspicion and chaos and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

Here are my reads as of now.

Town: Muffin, (gut feeling)
Leaning Town: TS, gbevil (neither of them have done anything scummy to me, seem to be pro-town enough)
Null: Haylen, Morthas (I'll do some isos later. Haylen seems to be more town I think, but I have very little idea on Morthas)
Leaning Scum: Espeonage, noragar (Seem the most scummy to me, but I've been suspicious of noragar for quite a while, so my vote stays...more on this later.)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #613 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:08 pm

eh, I wouldn't say he lurked D1 anyway. It was more active lurking than just pure lurking, with prod dodges and promises to catch up but no real content for most of the day. His ISO#7-ISO#16 is just... meh. Like yeah, maybe he was busy, but repeated promises to catch up that never happened makes me think he's more likely scum than town. But I'll do some reading at some point today.

Unvote

until I'm done reading, but I still think Espeonage is the most likely scum candidate.

Morthas · Post Post #614 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:33 pm

@MOD

: Going to have limited access since my pc has died until it's repaired, will probably be able to still participate though

gbevilchaos · Post Post #615 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:30 pm

forest_air wrote:chaos and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

lolwut? I have the second highest post count!

zMuffinMan · Post Post #616 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:26 am

OK, I've been a bit lazy, but tomorrow (or today, rather, 3:20am) is a Sunday so I will actually do some reading. I need to dedicate a couple hours today to this game and a couple others I'm in, so yeah.

Anyone wanna do me a favour and post their own analysis of vote counts D1? I'll do my own independently tomorrow, regardless of whether anyone else wants to do it, and it'll be filled with my own conclusions, which you may or may not agree with, but I'm interested in whether anyone else comes to the same conclusions I will.

Haylen · Post Post #617 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:20 am

Prod avoidance apparently, mods forgot I'm V/LA at the weekend :p

Will be on to this tomorrow, I've risen my own stress/frustration levels by going to a job interview and failing it cause I can't do maths aimed at 9-11 yr olds. How effing embarrassing.

Twistedspoon · Post Post #618 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:57 am

I'll do the maths

forest_air · Post Post #619 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 12:50 pm

gbevilchaos wrote:
forest_air wrote:chaos and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

lolwut? I have the second highest post count!

When I did I say that? And I'm not accusing you of lurking or anything, so it isn't that big a deal

gbevilchaos · Post Post #620 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 12:57 pm

forest_air wrote:
gbevilchaos wrote:
forest_air wrote:chaos and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

lolwut? I have the second highest post count!

When I did I say that? And I'm not accusing you of lurking or anything, so it isn't that big a deal

Iso Post #47. It took me by suprise.

forest_air · Post Post #621 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 1:32 pm

^Maybe it seems you're posting less because of all of the new people.

@Nobody Special : Please do a vote count as soon as you are able.

Nobody Special · Post Post #622 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 1:51 pm

Votecount 2.07

Espeonage - 3 - noragar, Morthas, gbevilchaos
noragar - 2 - forest_air, Twistedspoon
forest_air - 1 - Espeonage

Not Voting: Haylen, zMuffinMan

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: June 21

V/LA: Morthas, until computer is fixed

noragar · Post Post #623 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 2:36 pm

gbevilchaos wrote:
Town: TS, Hayl
Leaning Town: noragar, forest_air, zMuffin
Null: CC
Scum: Espe (mainly due to his crazy thought process that he refuses to show in detail as well as his chronic absence)

Ditto for me, except replace noragar with gbevilchaos and drop forest_air to a category somewhere between Null and Scum.

forest_air · Post Post #624 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:44 pm

gbevilchaos wrote:
forest_air wrote:Some people as scum may post a lot to arouse suspicion and chaos, and others may choose to post less often to avoid getting noticed.

lolwut? I have the second highest post count!

Okay, I was doing some rereading and just to let you know I meant chaos as in the word meaning "not in order." That's what I get for not using a comma.

I'm still suspicious of noragar and if a townie is lynched tonight, my vote goes back to him.

As was noted before me, Espeonage was lurking throughout most of d1. It seems odd to me how his post count has gone up a lot since d2 started. With only one mafia member left, that could cause major pressure for them to participate more to avoid being tagged as scum. This could be Espeonage's reason for being more active now.

No one was killed last night. Any chance there's a relation to Espeonage being away and the mafia choosing not to kill anyone? I think that possibility is likely.

This may sound newbish but I honestly cannot understand why the mafia would choose not to kill n1 in a newbie game. The only reasons I can see are they were either away or that any person they kill would cause major suspicion upon themselves. But the latter would probably apply to someone who was posting more.

He claims to be VT, and the chances of him being one are 5/6 out of 8. But by the way he's been playing the game makes me believe otherwise.

Unvote; Vote: Espeonage

Hammer's for the taking.