Mini 1183: Mafiamatical Mathia - Game over!

[Twistedspoon]

Hey Twistedspoon, what are your thoughts on Wicked and why aren't you voting him?

becuase he's V/LA and want him to answer my questions I asked him earlier first

[Juls]

What better way to welcome him back than with your vote?

[Twistedspoon]

I suppose it is doing nothing

but I think he's town. I don't think scum would make a big case on their partner after each of them had only one post.

[Juls]

Ah, but he didn't expect the awesome hammer de Juls.

[Twistedspoon]

yay more Juls fun

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p3122407

[Twistedspoon]

but srsly, I don't think scum would just go right for their buddy and call him scum for sure from like post 1

what's your case on wicked?

[Juls]

You don't? check this out: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=17464

Reckoner went right after Katsuki, both scum.

My case on wicked is presented here, and here (this pressure probably explains why he didn't remove his vote), and here. Am I 100% sure he is scum? No. But he is the most scummy to me so far this game.

[Twistedspoon]

okay

I get it now

I have a WKD side

VOTE: Wicky

[Hoppster]

Day 2, Votecount 6

theplague42 - 1

[L - 4]

(implosion)

Twistedspoon - 0

[L - 5]

Morthas - 0

[L - 5]

Juls - 1

[L - 4]

(don_johnson)

implosion - 0

[L - 5]

Wickedestjr - 2

[L - 3]

(Juls, Twistedspoon)

don_johnson - 1

[L - 4]

(Oopidstay)

Oopidstay - 0

[L - 5]

No Lynch - 0

[L - 5]

Not Voting - 3 (Morthas, Wickedestjr, theplague42)

Deadline: Friday June 24th at 15:30 BST

Time left:

(expired on 2011-06-24 10:30:00)

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Morthas is V/LA until further notice.
Wickedestjr is V/LA Saturday and Sunday.

Mod-Edit:

Corrected from Vote Count 5 to Vote Count 6.

[theplague42]

Alright I just read Wicked's posts again. He random voted Kalofer at the beginning, then just put FoS out on other people. Definitely seems like a bus gone wrong; unvoting would've made him look really scummy if Kalofer had still been lynched. I'll have to double-check, but Wicked looks like a good candidate.

Even from a personal experience, the one time I played as scum my partner and I random-voted each other, then later attacked one another fairly heavily.

Juls has me convinced.

Vote: Wickedestjr

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote: wicked

L-1. welcome back dude. please claim and explain.

i think its foolish to let juls slip by. her hammer only makes sense under certain conditions, and she has denied all of them. my hope is that if we have another night, scum call juls "soft claim bluff bullshit" and shoot her ass.

[Twistedspoon]

i think its foolish to let juls slip by. her hammer only makes sense under certain conditions, and she has denied all of them. my hope is that if we have another night, scum call juls "soft claim bluff bullshit" and shoot her ass.

they probably won't shoot her now that you've said you suspect her

anyways, I don't remember a softclaim

[Twistedspoon]

as a side note I can't wait to hear what kalofer's been saying about me in his QT

eh, no more wicked votes until he returns (This probably didn't need to be said)

[Juls]

unvote, vote: wicked

L-1. welcome back dude. please claim and explain.

i think its foolish to let juls slip by. her hammer only makes sense under certain conditions, and she has denied all of them. my hope is that if we have another night, scum call juls "soft claim bluff bullshit" and shoot her ass.

So you think I am scum but you are going to follow my lead? Scummy scummy donny!

[theplague42]

Unvote

Vote: don_johnson

That's the

second

time you've jumped onto a wagon like that.

[don_johnson]

plague: when was the first time?

juls: its not that i think you're scummy. its that i am having difficulty reconciling your actions. to explain, i will present to you four reasons why i think you may have hammered kalofer without a claim on day 1 after expressing ZERO suspicion of him. i will number them from what i think most likely to least likely.

1) juls is neighbor. she has spoken with kalofer outside the game per her role ability. she determined that his response to pressure and his activity in the QT points to the fact that he may, in fact, be scum. couple that with the mathematical probablility of having town neighbors in a game, and neighborjuls thinks "well, i'm town, so if there is a scum neighbor, i know its kalofer. he's not responding well, the QT has gone silent, so i don't see harm in hammering because

i know

he isn't doc/cop/etc."

this was most likely imo. this is not possible, morthas has claimed neighbor.

2) juls is cop/doc/etc. and eager to get to night phase, doesn't really care who gets lynched as long as its not her. i would generally expect to see this behavior from an investigative power role, as protective roles generally lurk and stay out of the limelight. copjuls could even justify the scummy hammer with "well, i wanted to make sure i didn't get roleblocked/nk'd.

this is still a possibility. however, you soft-claimed, then retracted it with the "well its about an ongoing game" thing, so i am not sure what to think.

3) juls is scum with kalofer. saw the oppurtunity to bus into serious towncred and took it. maybe was frustrated with her partner for getting to L-1 and not responding well. small game, town cred could go a long way.

4) juls is vt thinking its funny to hammer someone without a claim on day 1.

least likely.

if you are scum, allowing ourselves to let you live beyond today gives you a serious upperhand. and by live, i mean, i would like you to L-1 and then claim. if you are power, then we glean some info and lynch elsewhere. if you claim vt, we lynch you because 3 is much more likely than 4. got it?

i don't have an issue with your wicked wagon. i think the game needs action and the fact that we lynched scum on day 1 and avoided the first nk means we're in good shape. hopefully doc has breadcrumbed their protect so we at least have a cleared townie tomorrow if doc should get hit tonight. but whatever. if you think its scummy to support wagons then i don't know what to tell you. i'm not going to just sit here and believe that vt juls just up and decided to hammer a player on day 1 without a claim and with no good reason.

[theplague42]

Post 203. Oopidstay pointed it out in 204.

BTW don really needs to be lynched now. morthas already claimed neighbor and explained what happened in the QT.

[theplague42]

Also, that entire post is just really desperate speculation.

[Juls]

I will say the correct answer is either 2 or 4 or some combination thereof but my reasons have nothing to do with my role. I hammered for these primary reasons:

1) The thread was kinda getting stagnant. Night brings information, in this case the flip was good.
2) I didn't like his "just a sec" post and that was the OK for me to hammer because if he was a cop/doc/etc. He would have said "Claim: Cop, I will post more in a second." And that "sec" was way too long.
3) Principle. I wanted to show TS that putting someone at L-1 unless you want them lynched is dangerous.
4) I wanted to try a more aggressive approach.

Look, I understand the suspicion and I am cool with my lynch tomorrow if you like. Lets just take advantage of this gift of a no kill/save today.

P-Edit: Plague, you are looking more and more scummy by the way. Don's post is fine.

[theplague42]

Juls, morthas claimed neighbor and said what happened in their qt. No counterclaim. Therefore morthas is the neighbor. You couldn't be one with Kalofer then.

Can someone please see this?

[Juls]

He was saying those are the reasons he could see me hammering. He admits that isn't the case in his post.

[theplague42]

Alright stupid me.... I missed don's sentence saying it wasn't possible

[implosion]

whether you agree with his suspicions of Juls or not is irrelevant. Suspecting Juls, the most ruthless (and obvtown according to oopid) player in this game would be a suicidal thing for scum to do.

I disagree. don's push on Juls could come from either alignment, I think. It could be town legitimately concerned that Juls becomes pseudo-obvtown from the hammer as scum, or scum trying to push a lynch that won't be pushable later on.

@plague: null hypotheses are more commonly referred to as PoE (process of elimination) and what I was doing is basically a weaker form of PoE. The issue is that nothing is

ever

"provable" in mafia. PoE is a legitimate way to find scum for those that are more apt at townhunting than scumhunting.

I'm not sure why implosion excluded Wicked. I think Wicked is a pretty strong candidate for scum.

Many of his day one posts gave me fairly strong town vibes. I can elaborate if necessary.

I had some questions for don, but he answered them in his last post, and I now believe him to be town more strongly. I still like my vote on plague.

[theplague42]

Unvote

Vote: Wickedestjr

Btw that's what happens when I multitask >_<

[Juls]

I'm leaning strongly wicked or plague right now and would be happy with either of their lynch. I like DJ's response and don't like the way plague attacked it. Seemed opportunistic.