Open 302: JUNGLE REPUB nope game over! Party time!

[HezLucky]

Hmm sorry it seems like you've answered this.

Don't expect a vote from me tonight I plan on doing some ISO work tomorrow (NBA Finals game 6 right now then sleep)

Want to hear from havingfitz.

[HezLucky]

can't be a werewolf is hilarious, really.

If either town or mafia is lynched today, werewolves win (and nothing can prevent this). If a werewolf is lynched today, regardless of the night kill, all the remaining werewolf needs to do is not get lynched again and he wins as long as he kills one mafia either tonight or tomorrow night. So not seeing how Regfan-wolf wouldn't kill Wicked, especially if he were planning to use the absurd NK WIFOM argument to reason that he can't be a wolf.

Umbrage already confirmed that 1 werewolf-1 town - 2 mafia is an endgame win for the mafia.

So if we lynch a werewolf today the other werewolf MUST kill mafia or he loses.

[zMuffinMan]

Oh. Either way, the rest of what I said makes sense.

[Regfan]

Regfan, you're looking at a single example of a game I played as town where I still made gut-based decisions. There was no logical move from you being a scum read to you being a town read. With the post where you claimed and some other posts around that time, I got a gut read on you as town (even though I clearly acknowledged it's exactly what I thought you would do as scum). I then made a gut-based decision and went with Trouble.

Check out any of my other town games. Take the recently finished O307, for example, where I was lynched D1 because of my gut reads (where I got a gut read on DK town, a gut read that there were 2 scum on the wagon, gut town reads on chkflip, cjdrum, etc).

This is completly untrue, I've been following a few of your games however I'm unable to mention them now due to obvious reasons however even though you may have a 'gut' read initally you attempt to divulge into it as much as possible explaining how you reached those conclusions. You haven't done this at ALL this game with the exception of the push towards Wicked which you continue to toss to the side and avoid responding to.

Do explain how could you possibly be blitzed by either Hez or DK if 1 of them knows neil is lying and hf also knows neil is lying. From your perspective, hf and at least one of DK and Hez must want neil lynched, right? That's 3 there. There can be no majority.

You cannot possibly be blitzed if you're right in your reads, Regfan. That was an obvious slip because you're not town.

You're actually correct and I've been holding of doing this until the mod responded to me in a proper fashion. I've sent him multiple messages in the past hour or so dipping into this becuase I was unsure whether or not claiming your legitimate role was modkillable and although he refuses to answer directly he's led me under the impression that it's not exactly against the rules so if I get modkilled for this so help me god.

I'm a sheep, I won't reveal my partner at this stage however we discussed this situation last night and actually believed that outright claiming our role will be against the morals and ethics of the game however given recent circumstances I believe it's highly needed. This is the exact reason I knew that Neil was a werewolf instantly upon his claim and why I placed my vote on him without worrying about a blitz following.

There are multiple things I can point towards in this thread to prove the fact that I am indeed an evil sheep the strongest being the constant push towards Neil and refusal to openely state which scum team I believed he was on because doing so would have lead towards revealment of myself earlier. The second most obvious one being the fact that I knew that the occurances of day two weren't a buss because I attempted to subtly defend Cjdrum by stating that his comment was a town-slip when it wasn't at all. This will all be apparent if you read through my ISO and his.

I actually messaged the mod near-game start asking him what would happen if a scenarion such as this would occur, more specifically if there was just myself and one werewolf in the 3 way lylo would it be considered a draw or him winning due to killing me that night in which the resposne was that it would be a draw if we were to have equal control of the town together.

Pedit: Hez essentially proves what I'm attempting to say, werewolves would know that coming into today if one of them are lynched they're stuck into a position they wouldn't want to be in all therefore they would be aiming towards shooting a sheep last night.

Neil is well and truly a werewolf and needs to be lynched today, his flailing attempt at redirection of focus earlier in the day along with his attitude and actions previously are more than enough to prove this, every vote needs to go to Neil today and his partner which I still believe is zMuffin tommorow

[HezLucky]

Anyone else want to claim scum?

[Regfan]

To further top this of the fact that my scum-team has no night-kill of any sort means that our only chances of winning was via lynching the werewolves during the day phases. This is the sole reason why I was attempting to defend and prevent MoI's lynch from occuring and why I constantly attempted to make my town-reads known as well as finding out other players town-reads.

[zMuffinMan]

Wait, so if you're an evil sheep, why did you think I'd need to make up a case on you being scum? You're scum, so what evidence would I need to fake?

[zMuffinMan]

Meh,

Unvote

.

I'm not in any rush. Will read this thread from the perspective he's mafia.

In the mean time, why did you slot hf into a wolf(mafia) read, Regfan?

[zMuffinMan]

Actually.

No lynch isn't a bad idea now.

We have 2 evil sheep claims.

[zMuffinMan]

(Hint: Wolves must kill an evil sheep if we no lynch)

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: No lynch

[Regfan]

Wait, so if you're an evil sheep, why did you think I'd need to make up a case on you being scum? You're scum, so what evidence would I need to fake?

Again I'll reitterate, I didn't have any intention of claiming my role throughout today at all. I believed claiming scum in a game of mafia was against the ethics of the game and modkillable which is why I was shocked when Neil wasn't modkilled and pm'ed Umbrage asking him about it in greater depth. I was as previously stated worried that claiming my real role could potentially lead towards a modkill and if it does so help me god I will reign fury throughout this site. Regardless, I was attempting to play the town leadership role and push on Neil both my and my partners best guess for werewolf.

My mafia read on HavingFitz essentially revolved around his direct tunneling towards MoI yesterday without any real content or consideration of lynching elsewhere followed up by his VCA which he attempted to use to explain his scum and town-reads which did nothing of the sort. However I read through some of his previous games recently to see if he was generally this aggresive as scum and found it to be a null-tell for him.

I haven't read into the occurances that a no lynch would lead to deeply enough however it was something I was statistically attempting to work out earlier, I'll alert you on my results, for now my vote is more than comfortable on Neil.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not playing to your win condition, and I don't care whether no lynch benefits you. It benefits town. Stop squirming.

[HezLucky]

I'm not playing to your win condition, and I don't care whether no lynch benefits you. It benefits town. Stop squirming.

I'm starting to run the numbers on no lynch and am realizing that it makes a whole slew of assumptions that the werewolves are playing directly to win, rather than not to lose.

For example, in the situation of 1 wolf 1 mafia 2 town with the wolves to make a nightkill if either

a) the wolf has no idea who the mafia is.
or
b) the wolf knows exactly who the mafia is but the 2 town look SO TOWN that there is no way the wolf can win a final 3

the wolf will kill the townie and try and lynch the mafia on day.

what's the problem? nothing for the wolf. but 1-1-1 is a situation the town cannot win.

[HezLucky]

in other words the town can lynch correctly tomorrow and still lose the game if the wolf messes up (adn its not even really messing up, as i've shown above, it's juts preventing the town from winning)

[HezLucky]

lynch a wolf today wolf kills mafia tonight we are at 1-1-2 a second wolf lynch does it.

yes it requires us to be RIGHT TWICE IN A ROW but if we are right we will not lose the game due to a reliance on nightkills.

tell me what you think

[Regfan]

I'm not playing to your win condition, and I don't care whether no lynch benefits you. It benefits town. Stop squirming.

Yes, so you openly admit to not sharing the same win condition as myself however are continue to insist that I play against mine. End of the story is town loses via lynching me and I'm not exactly sure of what a no lynch leads to. Consider it another way, what hesitance would I have in no lynching if I were a werewolf who controls the night game at the moment - You'll find the answer is none and you'll likely find Neil jumping on the proposal.

First impression is that via lynching today my partners has the possibility although slim of making it to a three way lylo and winning there whereas no lynching results in my death tonight and the best case scenario being a draw.

[zMuffinMan]

@Hez,

Actually, I didn't even consider that... I see your point, but I don't think that's worse than the current situation. As it stands, we need to kill a werewolf with the next lynch, werewolves need to kill mafia with their next NK, and we need to kill a wolf with the following lynch.

Unvote

I need to do some thinking

[Regfan]

There's essentially two possibilities that can occur from no lynching.

The first being that werwolves would shoot at a sheep likely myself due to the fact I'm already in-thread claimed. This would lead tommorow to be 2-2-1 where town and my partner would make up the majority of the remaining players in the game, this would lead to Neil being instant lynched in which it would turn into the night phase with it being 2-1-1. If the final werewolf were to shoot my partner the odds of myself winning would be zilch and if they were to shoot a town player it would become 1-1-1 which isn't exactly a wanted position. It would come down to a popularity content of the town player choosing the faction they most wanted to win.

The second being that the werewolves were to shoot a town player tonight tommorow we would be left at 2-2-1 where town no longer have any hope of winning thus no reason to continue playing yet still holding the entire power of which scum faction wins the game in their hands. I don't believe anyone wants this to have a possibility of turning into any form of popularity content at all.

Essentially no lynch is good for no one but werewolves.

[zMuffinMan]

No lynching isn't good for the wolves either. It just forces their hand.

[zMuffinMan]

I need to read neil, Regfan and cj in ISO again.

[neil1113]

Regfan, you can only counter claim now. You've been caught. Pretty simple. When you get lynched and flip wolf, everyone will know. I find it funny though, you do the only thing scum would do in your situation. "No, YOUR the werewolf!" Funny that before I called you out, you NEVER mentioned me being werewolf with such certainty as that post. Ironic isn't it?

So you'll die, and then your partner will kill me, and then he'll get lynched tomorrow. GG Werewolf, but you're done. I dare you to counter claim Mafia, just to make this situation even MORE ironic.

[zMuffinMan]

He

did

claim mafia...

[neil1113]

Regfan, you can only counter claim now. You've been caught. Pretty simple. When you get lynched and flip wolf, everyone will know. I find it funny though, you do the only thing scum would do in your situation. "No, YOUR the werewolf!" Funny that before I called you out, you NEVER mentioned me being werewolf with such certainty as that post. Ironic isn't it?

So you'll die, and then your partner will kill me, and then he'll get lynched tomorrow. GG Werewolf, but you're done. I dare you to counter claim Mafia, just to make this situation even MORE ironic.

Just kidding, didn't see this last page. YOU DID claim sheep.

People, you do realize that Reg and Fitz are werewolves? Lynch me today Deity if you wish, but you'll lose the game. Remember, why would I purposely claim Mafia just to get counter claimed, KNOWING that there's already you and Reg looking to push my lynch today? Isn't it highly likely I wouldn't be believed anyways? I wouldn't take that chance. Simple.

Regfan, if you can convince the town to lynch me, instead of you, I'll tip my hat to you. Good game werewolf. I'll even add you to my sig, as a sign of respect. But all in all, when night comes, all will be revealed, and you'll be lynched tomorrow. So fight as hard as you want, you can't avoid the initial death of you and your partner you werewolves, you can only delay it.

By the way, all the points you've broughten against me doesn't prove I'm a werewolf. Just scum. And I've already claimed what side I'm on. And you're NOT my partner. Which makes you Werewolf. Simple. Goodbye.

[Regfan]

Regfan, you can only counter claim now. You've been caught. Pretty simple. When you get lynched and flip wolf, everyone will know. I find it funny though, you do the only thing scum would do in your situation. "No, YOUR the werewolf!" Funny that before I called you out, you NEVER mentioned me being werewolf with such certainty as that post. Ironic isn't it?

I've been relatively sure you were a werewolf throughout majority of this game and thus have been pushing at you over and over again however the wagon continues to be disabled with every attempt.

People, you do realize that Reg and Fitz are werewolves? Lynch me today Deity if you wish, but you'll lose the game. Remember, why would I purposely claim Mafia just to get counter claimed, KNOWING that there's already you and Reg looking to push my lynch today? Isn't it highly likely I wouldn't be believed anyways? I wouldn't take that chance. Simple.

You had no choice at all there was already two votes on you and another person stating intention to place a third therefore you did the only thing you felt comfortable doing gambiting and attempting to claim wolf and then proceed to play the 'Ate" you can't lynch me or else you lose! card over and over again.