Mini 1159 - Powerrox93's Mini Normal I (Game Over)

[mastin2]

For my protects...well...I'm kinda guessing they weren't very active.

Apparently, they didn't submit anything night one, and were totally absent night two.

Paraphrased, "no protects Night One, Failed To Submit Night Two".

Which I'm GUESSING means, "sent in a protect of nobody N1 and was absent N2."

[Zdenek]

And THAT, my friends, is EXACTLY why I waited to hardclaim.

CONFIRM VOTE: Zdenek, CounterClaim: BodyGuard

.

You can hammer away, Pine.

Bullshit.

[mastin2]

This is what I meant when I said I wouldn't be doing my job if I lived through the night. Since BodyGuards die if they choose the correct kill during the night. Meaning that I have a limited lifespan if I'm doing my job correctly and if I continue to live, I'm failing.

[mastin2]

And THAT, my friends, is EXACTLY why I waited to hardclaim.

CONFIRM VOTE: Zdenek, CounterClaim: BodyGuard

.

You can hammer away, Pine.

Bullshit.

I could say the same of you.
In fact, I think I will.

[mastin2]

So, I'm back, and it looks like I have to claim.

I'm a bodyguard. I protected Crazypianist both nights.

I'll get to reading the thread.

Bull

shit

.
(*sigh* Third Time...)

[Zdenek]

This is what I meant when I said I wouldn't be doing my job if I lived through the night. Since BodyGuards die if they choose the correct kill during the night. Meaning that I have a limited lifespan if I'm doing my job correctly and if I continue to live, I'm failing.

Or if as town and you're doing your job correctly (which you in particular pride yourself on) you should be nightkilled. It's a very convenient claim, and breadcrumb for you to use.

[mastin2]

No. Just no.
I'm trying to find words to describe it. But those words just seem to describe it best.

Also, isn't it a bit convenient that Zdenek has protected the person who Pine--the only guy on neither wagon right now--replaced?

[mastin2]

Doing an ISO.

Post two. Scumread. Post 14. Scumread.

I see NO positive reads on Crazy with control+F.

[mastin2]

Essentially. I admittedly cut a corner by using Control+F, but that revealed no positive read, but lots of negative read, in Zdenek's ISO about Crazy. The two I linked are just the ones which made this most explicit.

So, what, was he protecting a scumread?

[Zdenek]

I had a good reason to protect CP.

[mastin2]

Oh, really?

I just did a FULL read of your ISO.

Crazy never moved above neutral to you.
He DID fall BELOW neutral, into scum. On (from what I can tell from the quotes) all three days. ISO 2, ISO 14, ISO 22 all show clear suspicion of Crazy, and nothing COUNTERING this suspicion.

Your "Good Reason" for "protecting" Crazy?

Pine--Crazy's replacement--is the only one not voting either of us right now.

Yeah. There's absolutely no hint of it in your ISO.

[Zdenek]

I thought this was a cop breadcrumb.

Zdenek is leaving me not so pleased but I guess we'll see what comes of that.

and while I had issues with him, they weren't enough for me to ignore that.

[mastin2]

I saw no crumb.
Guess what I've been doing for the last five minutes?
Going over Crazy's ISO.

Guess who's frequently a suspect?

Zdenek.

[Zdenek]

The breadcrumb is that it looked like he was suggesting that he might investigate me.

[imaginality]

Hmmm.

A bodyguard protecting a PR-read. Another bodyguard protecting no-one two nights running.

On the one hand, I find it rather a coincidence that mastin2 just happens to have the same role Zdenek claimed. If it was earlier in the day, I'd believe the counter-claim more, but at this stage with it being an either-or call, it seems more unlikely. And would the predecessors, whatever their activity, really have failed to submit an action N2 and chosen not to protect N1? That seems more like a convenient claim to avoid getting caught out by any watcher or tracker results.

On the other hand, it seems kind of bold to fake-claim and claim no-action for both nights. But then, presumably mastin2 (if scum) isn't expecting to live tomorrow when Zdenek flips town. So all his claim has to do is get Zdenek lynched today. And a VT claim would probably see him lynched instead of Zdenek.

Added to that, I took mastin's softclaim to be indicating he was VT, so I can see where Zdenek's coming from there.

Overall, I think mastin2 is scum trying to get Zdenek lynched while knowing it means he'll be lynched himself tomorrow.

P-edit: mastin2, why would Zdenek worry about crazypianist suspecting him, if he thought she's cop? If he's town, he'd know she'd get an innocent result on him. (And if he's scum and thinks she's cop and she suspects him, wouldn't he just nightkill her?) Not sure why that's a point against him.

[imaginality]

Now reading Zdenek's iso to see if mastin2's right about Zdenek thinking CP was scummy, since if true that would be a better point against Zdenek's claim.

[mastin2]

Zdenek didn't claim earlier, though, did he?

I specifically waited for him to claim, since I was expecting something like Doctor from him. In which case, he'd still be scum since there wouldn't be two protective roles in the game.

Had I claimed earlier, Zdenek could've gotten away with any roleclaim other than "protective role". But I had a hunch. Call it a gut feeling. That Zdenek was going to claim a protective role. I was right, though wrong on which one. He happened to have WORSE luck than I thought he would, and claimed the EXACT role of me, rather than just a Protective Role (which still woulda gotten him lynched, hence me wanting to make sure he had the opportunity to fall into the trap).

I have no clue where you get the idea where my claim was softclaiming VT. If I were a VT, I would flat-out have claimed it. (Reason? [REDACTED - Ongoing]. But Pine ought to know why I wouldn't fakeclaim right now. ) VTs don't have a role which relies on them being killed during the night. My previous VT play is not that. It's...hard to explain. Simply put, my play makes no sense as a VT. I specifically said "softclaim". I don't softclaim VT; that's not even a real role. Softclaim implies power. Softclaims imply a role of some sort. I don't think I've ever seen people softclaim VT and CALL it a softclaim.

I can't speak for my predecessors. I really don't know. I've given you the closest paraphrase I can without pretty much copy and pasting what was said, and I honestly don't know what it means; I can only give my interpretation of it.

-edit: mastin2, why would Zdenek worry about crazypianist suspecting him, if he thought she's cop?

Simple, really. He BS'd the whole thing and had no Cop Read on Crazy. Read Zdenek's posts. He's been suspicious of Crazy the whole time. There's no way you think of a person as being suspicious, while protecting them as a POSSIBLE PR. No way. It's a broken chain of thought which does not connect.

[mastin2]

Typical VT softclaims:
"I got a boring role this game."
"It's not like my role is actually useful this game."
"It's not like my claim will actually save me."
"My role really isn't that interesting."
"Go ahead! LYNCH ME! I'm WORTHLESS!"
Stuff like that. Am I wrong?

No. Admit it: that's the typical VT softclaim. I've seen it a hundred times. And you know you have too.

Compare to this:

Alright. I admit it--one of the reasons I find it hard to get into this game is that I'm not doing my job right if I live through the night.

(Yes, that's a softclaim.)

/Will Hardclaim on Policy once I finish working.

Distinct Difference.


Also, for those doubting it: I hinted at my reason here. "If you're town, you might be able to figure out why I'm waiting for Zdenek to claim first." Why? To trap him if he claimed a Protective Role, of course. I predicted that.

And I wanted to wait Specifically for Zdenek to return.
Why?

Because I was predicting that Protective Role claim. I knew it was coming, and I knew if I wasn't around, my counterclaim wouldn't look as strong. I knew that if I gave, say, eight hours or so between his claim and my counter-claim, that it'd make my claim look desperate. So, I needed to be around at the time he claimed, specifically so that I'd be around to immediately (rather than effectively posthumously) counter-claim him.

[imaginality]

Also on the "I wouldn't be doing my job properly if I lived through my night" - that fits

better

with a VT claim than a bodyguard one. A VT with ideal play should be the nightkill by playing so well scum try to kill them. A bodyguard with ideal play should locate and protect a town PR of more value, and should only be the nightkill if scum target that player. (No value in dying to protect a VT instead of protecting a cop, unless the VT is an awesome scumhunter.)

Zdenek's 2 and 14 express fairly mild suspicion of CP. In between, in iso 4 he says CP is 'fine'.

22 does call CP scummy for not scum-hunting, although qualifies it with "at least what seems to be a lack of suspects, he's said little today". That seems to at least not contradict the idea of Zdenek viewing CP as a lurky PR (compared with if there were other reasons given aside from relative lack of activity). ...I think Zdenek went harder against other players than CP. This doesn't look damning to me.

And, conversely, if Zdenek is scum, and we accept mastin2's suggestion that CP really is an odd choice for Zdenek to protect - then why didn't Zdenek simply claim to have protected players he gave more consistent townreads on?

The long and short of it: I think Zdenek is town, I think mastin2 is scum, and I think if Zdenek had claimed VT, mastin2 may well have done the same, but had to gamble when Zdenek claimed PR because otherwise mastin2'd likely be the one lynched.

P-edit:

Pretty sure I've seen people in games I'm in talk about soft-claiming vanilla town, though I'll have to do some digging to find the exact games.

The definition of ideal VT play (assuming a town of equal intelligence, at least, it seems to me, really

is

to play so well scum nightkill them instead of the town PRs. Conversely, a bodyguard would do better to protect a PR read rather than another player they don't have a PR on, even if the other player is more likely to be nightkilled (assuming the PR and the VT are somewhat reasonably equal in skill). So a bodyguard

shouldn't

always get NKed N1 with ideal play (since scum won't always target the PR).

-edit: mastin2, why would Zdenek worry about crazypianist suspecting him, if he thought she's cop?

Simple, really. He BS'd the whole thing and had no Cop Read on Crazy. Read Zdenek's posts. He's been suspicious of Crazy the whole time. There's no way you think of a person as being suspicious, while protecting them as a POSSIBLE PR. No way. It's a broken chain of thought which does not connect.

I'm not asking about Zdenek suspecting crazypianist. I'm asking why crazypianist's suspicion of Zdenek makes Zdenek's claim less believable. Which you seem to imply it does by your comment in 712.

P-edit-edit: I thought you wanted Zdenek to claim first because Pine had expressed more suspicion of him than you. If Zdenek had claimed VT and been disbelieved, or made a claim which fell down on its own, you might not have needed to claim at all.

[imaginality]

I knew that if I gave, say, eight hours or so between his claim and my counter-claim, that it'd make my claim look desperate. So, I needed to be around at the time he claimed, specifically so that I'd be around to immediately (rather than effectively posthumously) counter-claim him.

Don't see why counterclaiming immediately gives you townpoints when you were (whether scum or town) considering counterclaiming him before his claim (giving you plenty of time to think up possible counterclaims). If his claim came out of the blue, unexpectedly, and then you counterclaimed immediately, that would be worth more. In this you-vs-him and waiting for him to claim situation, it's pretty meh.

[mastin2]

Also on the "I wouldn't be doing my job properly if I lived through my night" - that fits better with a VT claim than a bodyguard one. A VT with ideal play should be the nightkill by playing so well scum try to kill them. A bodyguard with ideal play should locate and protect a town PR of more value, and should only be the nightkill if scum target that player. (No value in dying to protect a VT instead of protecting a cop, unless the VT is an awesome scumhunter.)

No. Ideal BodyGuard play is to stop the nightkill. Period.

It doesn't matter.

VT, Power Role.

Whatever.

If a BodyGuard lives through a night, they're not doing their job.

They're not protecting the person who needs protection.

If the scum kill someone, THEY THINK THAT SOMEONE IS A THREAT. It doesn't matter what their PR is. I don't care if they're a simple VT or a dayvig. Protecting the nightkill interferes with the scum's motives, while simultaneously getting rid of a player they (most likely--there are some rare exceptions where the BG is the best kill; I've seen it before*) wanted to keep around.

*(Pine again. He knows what I talk about all too well.)

If I died defending a VT? I'd be stopping the scum from killing that VT, who they wanted dead FOR A REASON. And if they wanted them dead, that by DEFINITION means they thought of said player as a threat, and therefore, someone who needs to keep living, since generally, "threat" translates to "competent".


Quite frankly, I meant exactly what I said. If I didn't find who the NK tonight was (I...have an idea, which I've been pondering, but am not positive of it), I would quite frankly have FAILED my duty as a bodyguard. My only purpose in this game as a BodyGuard is to DIE during the night, defending a pro-town player, REGARDLESS of THEIR Role PM.

A VT's job isn't to die during the night. That's certainly helpful, and a great blessing to the PRs. But it's a side-effect of their true purpose:

SCUM HUNTING.

Gambits taken as a VT like claiming to be a PR, for instance, are not meant to get you killed. That's a wonderful side-effect which would be awesome. Gambits of that nature are meant to either protect a town-read or condemn a scum-read. (The latter of which tends to end FAR more poorly than the latter. Trust me, know from experience. )

THAT is the difference.

Zdenek's 2 and 14 express fairly mild suspicion of CP.

Mild? MILD?!? YOU CALL HIM SAYING CRAZY IS IN HIS TOP TWO SUSPECTS

MILD?!?

In between, in iso 4 he says CP is 'fine'.

Yeah. Fine.
Translates to "neutral at best".

Not "town". Which you'd expect if someone thought another to be a PR.

22 does call CP scummy for not scum-hunting, although qualifies it with "at least what seems to be a lack of suspects, he's said little today". That seems to at least not contradict the idea of Zdenek viewing CP as a lurky PR (compared with if there were other reasons given aside from relative lack of activity)

Yeah. Does not contradict.
Doesn't support it, either.

I'm asking why crazypianist's suspicion of Zdenek makes Zdenek's claim less believable.

Crazy suspects Zdenek. Zdenek claims protection of Crazy. The two don't add up. Simple. Maybe not alone. But the feeling that it was MUTUAL makes both sides stronger.

If Zdenek was suspicious of Crazy, that'd be bad. It is.

If Crazy was suspicious of Zdenek, it'd be suspicious. (And it is. I've personally never seen a protective role protect someone who was calling them scum. [Not that it hasn't happened, I just haven't personally seen it in my 34 games.])

COMBINED, though, they make it COMPLETELY unbelievable.

I thought you wanted Zdenek to claim first because Pine had expressed more suspicion of him than you.

I didn't pay attention to Pine at all, really.

If Zdenek had claimed VT and been disbelieved, or made a claim which fell down on its own, you might not have needed to claim at all.

Except, I needed to claim on personal policy, my Personal Honor Code today, regardless. I do not believe in letting softclaims go without hardclaiming. I needed to Hardclaim today after the Softclaim. I was going to do that regardless.

Don't see why counterclaiming immediately gives you townpoints

Doesn't. It's null. Waiting, however, would be deadly.

when you were (whether scum or town) considering counterclaiming him before his claim (giving you plenty of time to think up possible counterclaims).

What. This makes no sense. I predicted his claim. I knew he was going to go for a Protective Role. I knew that if I claimed first, he wouldn't.

You also miss the implication.

Had I not been around, two things could have happened. And don't tell me neither of these would have; I know how the mind of whole towns work.

1: I would have been hammered. Cleared posthomously, of course, and Zdenek dies tomorrow, but I would obviously prefer today.

2: I would have woken up, see people go, "Ah, I believe you. Let's see what Mastin claims."
"COUNTERCLAIM: BODYGUARD."
"Lol, scum cornered? VOTE: MASTIN!!!"
^Not the exact words which'd go on, of course, but that is more or less how things would play out. I know it, because it's what has historically happened in every game I've read.

[imaginality]

Whether or not you've seen it happen, I fail to see why, if I'm a protective role, and believe another player to be an investigative role, I wouldn't protect them. Now, maybe I might in an OMGUSsy way be less likely to believe in the first place that they're a PR, but if I do believe they are, then there's no reason their suspicion of me should make me less likely to protect them. If anything, it's a bonus, since it confirms me if they investigate me.

*

I disagree that it's better as bodyguard to protect a VT-nightkill over protecting a cop read, if you think the scum might have also picked up on the cop tell. Your VT had better be pretty great to make up for the results you lose out on, if the scum kill the cop.
This is perhaps more of a discussion for MD after the game though.

*

Yeah. Fine.
Translates to "neutral at best".

Not "town". Which you'd expect if someone thought another to be a PR.

The post Zdenek claims to have taken as a cop tell (post 244), crazypianist only posted after Zdenek's iso6. Similarly, he listed crazypianist in his 'top two scumreads' way early in the game, well before post 244.

[imaginality]

As for your no-action and lack of action: redtail896 appears to have flaked sitewide on May 18th, so the no action N2 is believable, but he was active in this game right before and after N1, and gave a bunch of townreads a few days earlier in his iso1. I really struggle to see why he wouldn't have submitted a protection.

Anyhow. I'm off to bed now. Will be good to get others' thoughts on all this.

[imaginality]

EBWOP: I struggle to see why he would have chosen to protect no-one N1.

[mastin2]

Hey, Imag. You need to invert your sig.

"If you give me six lines written by the hand of the worst liar--a condemned criminal--I will find something in them which will set him free."

Whether or not you've seen it happen, I fail to see why, if I'm a protective role, and believe another player to be an investigative role, I wouldn't protect them. Now, maybe I might in an OMGUSsy way be less likely to believe in the first place that they're a PR, but if I do believe they are, then there's no reason their suspicion of me should make me less likely to protect them. If anything, it's a bonus, since it confirms me if they investigate me.

You're not getting it.

Zdenek expressed suspicion of Crazy ON ALL THREE DAYS.

Crazy expressed suspicion of Zdenek.

Zdenek claims to have thought Crazy dropped an investigative role breadcrumb and to have protected him the whole time because of it.

THESE TWO DO NOT ADD UP.

If you think someone's a PR, YOU THINK THEY ARE TOWN. If you don't believe they're a PR, by YOUR logic, YOU DON'T PROTECT THEM. (And by my logic--taking it one step further--if you think they're scum, you DEFINITELY don't protect them.)

There's a contradiction in there. Honestly. How can't you see it?

Zdenek believed Crazy to be scum. On all three days, to varying degrees.
Zdenek claimed to see Crazy as a PR and protected him.
IF YOU ARE SUSPICIOUS OF SOMEONE, YOU DON'T BUY THEIR CLAIM.

This is plain as day.

I disagree that it's better as bodyguard to protect a VT-nightkill over protecting a cop read, if you think the scum might have also picked up on the cop tell. Your VT had better be pretty great to make up for the results you lose out on, if the scum kill the cop.
This is perhaps more of a discussion for MD after the game though.

Protective roles ALWAYS protect who they think will be nightkilled. The ONLY exception to this is a claimed PR, as the Protective Role shouldn't engage in the WIFOM of trying to stop the actual scum kill. If it's only a hint--WHICH ZDENEK APPARENTLY DIDN'T REALLY BELIEVE (see above)--then unless you SPECIFICALLY think the scum DID pick up on it, you DON'T protect them. You instead protect who you think the scum will ACTUALLY kill, since that player won't die unless the scum saw it as well--and depending on the nature of the so-called 'crumb, you can easily tell this. I for one did not see the crumb. I sincerely doubt anyone else did, either.

Similarly, he listed crazypianist in his 'top two scumreads' way early in the game, well before post 244.

Explain, then, the increased suspicion Zdenek had in ISO 14.
I dare you.

I effing DARE you to.

Zdenek was pushing Crazy hard, there.