Mini 1170: Nowhereville Mafia '11- Over!

[hiplop]

so i softclaimed to tell them off

[LordChronos]

so i softclaimed to tell them off

Nice move. Also, way to ignore the rest of my post.

[hiplop]

those votes were by the same person, 8 hours is nothing. I dont see your point

[LordChronos]

Fine. I'll ask again. Why does two people voting the same person within a short time period when that person was just counterclaimed make them scum?

[hiplop]

In general, no it doesnt make it scum. Think larger though, kool was majorly targetted yesterday for bbeing super scummy. He proved it tenfold by bandwaggoning so hard, in lylo.

I dont see why you guys believe obvscum panzer. His claim makes no sense. No breadcrumbs, day after, obscure role, targetted directly for me, waited until LYLO.

seriously, think for yourselves

[LordChronos]

In general, no it doesnt make it scum. Think larger though, kool was majorly targetted yesterday for bbeing super scummy. He proved it tenfold by bandwaggoning so hard, in lylo.

I dont see why you guys believe obvscum panzer. His claim makes no sense. No breadcrumbs, day after, obscure role, targetted directly for me, waited until LYLO.

seriously, think for yourselves

I don't see why anyone believes obvscum you. Your claim makes no sense. No breadcrumbs, obscure role, botched claim, claimed to save your neck when no votes were on you.

As I said earlier, sometimes waiting to CC is the right move. See this game : https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=17166

[CooLskins]

dont you guys find it suspicious, that kool voted right after Panzer? in lylo, he immediatly voted, both of them. Unless they're masons (which the clearly aren't) they couldnt have possibly come up with a coherent idea. I cant believe you guys are belieivng such obvious scummery

Defending a likely townie, is somethng that all townies should try to do, yes.

Defending one of your town reads is almost never townish. The only possible exception is lylo. I have yet to see a time when defending a townie by claiming a power role (soft or full) is beneficial to the town. Link me to a game where it has and prove me wrong.

The only thing that your defending SK did was let the scum know that you had a power role (this is naturally assuming that you are town), and that sk wasn't the sk. It did nothing but give scum information. Actually at this point an sk flip would have been tones better then that lurker we lynched yesterday.

Preemptive response: Yes, I think defending other people is scummy.

[Elfen]

huh well im all for a SK lynch or a hiplop... Im still seeing a hip/SK scum team :/ but who would the other scum be...

[Elfen]

oh yeah Kool maybe out of those three, i am ok with lynching

[Elfen]

GAH! EDBWOTP

But another thought came across my mind.. The most town looking person and town leading one.. CoolDog.. I mean why wouldn't they want to NK him sooner? I mean that would lead us to a dazed state of mind and lynch otehr towns, Right? Just a thought though.. Any one else find it weird-ish?

[hiplop]

dont you guys find it suspicious, that kool voted right after Panzer? in lylo, he immediatly voted, both of them. Unless they're masons (which the clearly aren't) they couldnt have possibly come up with a coherent idea. I cant believe you guys are belieivng such obvious scummery

Defending a likely townie, is somethng that all townies should try to do, yes.

Defending one of your town reads is almost never townish. The only possible exception is lylo. I have yet to see a time when defending a townie by claiming a power role (soft or full) is beneficial to the town. Link me to a game where it has and prove me wrong.

The only thing that your defending SK did was let the scum know that you had a power role (this is naturally assuming that you are town), and that sk wasn't the sk. It did nothing but give scum information. Actually at this point an sk flip would have been tones better then that lurker we lynched yesterday.

Preemptive response: Yes, I think defending other people is scummy.

Thats out of context. Panzer (i believe, aka SCUM) was pushing for the SK lynch, because charter died. Obvious setup. i had PROOF that it didnt happen that way. That and SK wording himself wrong are the only reason people were after him. I cleared that it didnt happen like that. It was nt the best move admittedly, but thats how it happened, no need to lecture me.

Now actually read back and realize how scummy panzer is. The only reason you people think im scum is because i tried to protect and obvi-town. Get over yourselves

[LordChronos]

dont you guys find it suspicious, that kool voted right after Panzer? in lylo, he immediatly voted, both of them. Unless they're masons (which the clearly aren't) they couldnt have possibly come up with a coherent idea. I cant believe you guys are belieivng such obvious scummery

Defending a likely townie, is somethng that all townies should try to do, yes.

Defending one of your town reads is almost never townish. The only possible exception is lylo. I have yet to see a time when defending a townie by claiming a power role (soft or full) is beneficial to the town. Link me to a game where it has and prove me wrong.

The only thing that your defending SK did was let the scum know that you had a power role (this is naturally assuming that you are town), and that sk wasn't the sk. It did nothing but give scum information. Actually at this point an sk flip would have been tones better then that lurker we lynched yesterday.

Preemptive response: Yes, I think defending other people is scummy.

Wait, an Sleepy flip would have been tons better than lynching the serial killer? Even if he was town?

[hiplop]

nice find chronos. Explain why keeping the SK alive is a good thing Coolskins. now

[LordChronos]

nice find chronos. Explain why keeping the SK alive is a good thing Coolskins. now

Buddying is not cool.

[LordChronos]

Also, people were after Sleepy for more than just that. For example, his willingness to lynch someone he was adamant was town when there was time to do otherwise.

[CooLskins]

I think what CooLDoG was saying, was that we would have gained much more information from an SK flip rather than what we got. CO had virtually no connects to anybody, and while he was the SK, his lynch didn't get as any closer to finding scum at all.

At any rate, the issue we have right now is either Panzer or hip. We have confirmed scum in one of them. While we could go anywhere else, I don't think we'd have as good a shot as 50%+. For that reason, I've re-read Panzer response to hip's claim, to see if it is consistent with him being a jailer. After Hip posted his claim that SK didn't have a killing role, Panzer was on him, and then off him.

Sudden epiphany:I'd be willing to bet Hipplop is lying, Seems weird that he would vote Sleepy after getting a result on him with gunsmith. Also SK's are generally considered not to have guns so He wouldn't sense the SK(they carry knives in most games here)

He seems to weakly think that Hiplop is lying (if he strongly felt that way, he would have voted for him). This is interesting, because at this point it is assumed that Hip is a gunsmith. This could be town-panzer saying "Hmmm, could there really be a watcher, tracker, gunsmith, Jailer, and three scum in a 13 player game?" while also make a point about hiplop's voting, which brings further questions to his claim. He's on his case for a few more posts and then he drops him when the hoopla dies down a little.

However he gets back onto hip later for getting onto the Kool wagon too fast. After that, Hiplop claimes jailkeeper, and Panzer responds with this:

Bullshit

Vote:Hiplop

And then later:

No, You can't mistake what he is claiming to have mistook. Every vote on someone that is voting on you isn't OMGUS

Unless the Mod took some serious liberties with the way the role PM was written(or the English language), there is no way you could have missed the fact that Jailkeeping someone roleblocks them. Also, that's essentially the main way to play jailkeeper, is use it as an RB role.

The actions and the claim do not add up. Either this is a lying scum or a lying SK. But one way or another, Hiplop is not a jailkeeper.

I view both of these as strong evidence that Panzer is telling the truth. You would expect him to instantly get onto Hip, like a switch had been flipped, once Hip claimed jailkeeper. The assertation that he wasn't the jailkeeper was strong, and IMO, not supported by the evidence he presented. This leads me to belive that he was the jailer himself.

He keeps on pushing hard on hip, insisting that he's scum. However, he relents a little when he sees the hiplop wagon going nowhere and gets onto the CO wagon. Overall, I see a generally consistent view from Panzer, and exactly what I would expect from the real town jailkeeper in that circumstance. When hiplop claims jailer, Panzer flips and starts attacking him all out like never before. While he does relent in the end, I feel like this was after he realized that the wagon wasn't going anywhere and he consents to a CO lynch. After that, he knows he's got to get hiplop lynched because he knows that hip is scum (and it's MYLO) so he comes out and counter-claims.

This is much better than Hiplop's kind of wishy-washy claim. Looking back, it looks more like a botched attempt to either protect a possible scumbud (SK) or gain some town cred. Either way, Hip is scum.

vote: Hiplop

Panzer claim is much more consistent and believable than hip's, thus making hip the liar (and the scum).

I also really don't like this most recent post by Hip.

nice find chronos. Explain why keeping the SK alive is a good thing Coolskins. now

This doesn't add anything the discussion. All it serves to do is to try and deflect attention away from himself. This is trademark caught scum.

[Elfen]

Huh, nice way to put it. To be a sheeper, i have to agree with this 50-50 chance of one of them being scum :/

Vote:Hiplop

[LordChronos]

Ok, it makes me nervous that Elfen put hiplop to L-1 immediately after you voted CooLskins.

[SleepyKrew]

*intent to hammer*
I think I should clear up the Vig breadcrumb. I was painting a target on my back, because I'm a VT.

[hiplop]

and you guys just lost the game. Nice job panzer, it was a really good move there at the end, and unfortnately none of these people realized how scummy you really were.

Props to you buddy

[hiplop]

wait, who do you guys think could be my 'buddy'? I dont think there are ANY connections between me and other players, like there is between Kool and Panzer. They vote together, never voted eachother despite wagons going on both. The scumteam is Cool/Kool/Panzer. Unfortunately, i know this but you guys probably wont believe me.

[hiplop]

EBWOP i guess SK could be considered my buddy, but that was one event throughout the entire game, doesn't justify a buddy

[CooLskins]

Okay, lets clear up the whole sk deal. In adition to having more information we would also have a confirmed townie going into lylo.
This may take some time, but I'm going to show you guys the different situations we can come into depending on a sleepy lynch, or a CO lynch.
This might also be a little bit confusing, but it is essential. Basically this is a tree that shows what actions the town scum and sk can do (Assumptions are: scum will not nk themselves, the town doesn't have a doc, the SK will not kill himself, and that SK cross kill by scum is very unlikely [because co was a lurker])

Sit1:
Day2, 7/3
lynch: Sleepy. (6/3)
Flip: Town
SK kill: town
Mafia kill: town
Day 3,
5/3 with 1 confirmed town so essentially that's a 4/3, with connections, and with a JK result.
Now with this info we have to play a little bit farther to see what the sk will do (vote with town or with scum)
Lynch: town (who that would be I do not know)
Scum kill: town
SK kill: town
day 4,
2/3, resulting in an sk loss.

(go back to day 3)

Day3, 5/3
Lynch: town
SK kill: has to be scum or a loss will insue
scum kill: town
day 4
3/2
At this point we should have a buddy connect, like the panzer/kool one that we have now. So we should have a logical next lynch set-up. But lets go hypothetical
lynch: town
Sk kill: (again has to be scum or loss)
scum kill town (yes, I will go back and see what cross kills will look like)
day 5: 1/1/1 SK/scum win.

(go back to day 3)

Day 3 5/3 (sleepy has still flipped town, so in essence we lost the coin flip that we are going through right now)
lynch: scum (This should happen. A kool/panzer lynch would have had the most motivation back there and we know for sure that panzer would have flipped scum, and kool is heavily connected to him.)
Sk kill: town
Scum kill: town
day 4 3/2
lynch: will be connected scum
SK kill: (3 on 1. SK actually might no kill here. He has to hit scum in order to have a chance. [end up 1/1 draw, is that what he wants? Would the sk win in that circumstance? If yes, he would just kill away]) town
scum kill town, game over draw/sk win

(go back to day 3)

day3 5/3 (okay, this is getting a bit old, I will now cover the most probable outcome)
lynch: Scum (kool. He had the most support for a lynch and would have gotten my vote. He would flip scum because of the panzer connection)
1/3 chance of killing scum rb and getting a jk result.
sk kill: town (why not? He doesn't want a 3/1/1 does he?)
scum kill: town
day4 we are at a 3/2/1
lynch Scum (panzer, need I say more?)
50/50 on rb.
so now its a 3/1/1
SK: kill town
Scum kill town
1/1/1 - draw sk win

The only modification here would be if the sk killed scum. If he did it would turn into a 4/1/1. Then we would lynch the lurker, 3/1.

back to day 3

5/3
lynch: lurker (fucking stupid but it could happen) sk
scum kill: town
3/3 loss.

back to day

2

lynch: scum (sleepy)
scum kill: town
sk: kill town

we are now at a 5/2
day 3, 5/2
lynch: scum (hip is confirmed scum at this point)
5/1
50% chance we nail the role blocker. Actually its a bit closer to 100% but that another story.
SK kill: town
scum kill town
2/1/1
This would have been a very interesting situation. Scum actually have motivation to work with the town to avoid sk draw-win (2x cross kill would be very funny wouldn't it?). But the town have to lynch scum to avoid a loss (scum kill town, 1/1 draw, possible loss depending on mod). SO we would have a potential hold out from the two townies if they realized the situation. Get a no lynch and then scum have to kill the sk (at this point you are just throwing up your hands and hoping that scum hit sk and sk hits scum. Because otherwise you are going to run into a draw/loss)
correct lynch here is no lynch. Then you put your faith in the remaining scum to kill the sk. Then you have a 2/1 lylo.

My conclusion is as follows. IF we lynched sk instead of CO we would have had a hell of a lot more time to make reads and prepare for lylo. Its still essentially a coin flip (as we know it is right now. Hindsight works here because that is what my comment was made in), and it would have been a hell of a lot better going into lylo with only 1 scum instead of 3 (this is a pretty big assumption). But natuarlly killing the sk early will allow us a road to victory if we can lynch 3 scum in a row. All in all It would all still rest on a 50/50 coin flip (ether on sk/panzr/hip yeas due to the connections...). And arguably the town have a chance at winning here, and in most other cases (where no cross kills happen) the town draw-loses. But the fact remains we have to lynch 3 scum in a row on a basic 50/50.

mod, prod the shit out of kal

[CooLskins]

EBWOP i guess SK could be considered my buddy, but that was one event throughout the entire game, doesn't justify a buddy

actually it does. No sane scum would claim to save a vt. If sk flipped scum/you flip scum sk is 95% scum.

[SleepyKrew]

Hip basically confirmed himself scum with those 3 posts. Can I has hammer?