Succession Mafia II: OVER!

[bvoigt]

What has Nobody Special done to make him town?

I forget the exact reason, TBH. But he gives me a feeling of sincerity.

@DGB: Why'd you change your mind?

[DrippingGoofball]

This sentence:
"Andy - let me predict your future: you have a long and frustrating game ahead of you."

[Battousai]

Poro- We also have a chance at winning the lottery... You should only vote for a wagon if you believe the wagon will flip scum, not to avoid no lynch.

Yos- Since each side only has 1 scum, we lose a bit of tells. Combine that with the scum being able to manipulate us (as in, town at best has random chance at lynching scum D1), it's at a lower threshold. Also, please explain to me how not removing a town player from the game (mislynching) will make it easier for scum to fulfill their win condition than if we do mislynch?

Ludi 1161: Exaggeration or have you dropped me as a suspect, since I'm not on the xvart wagon?

As I said, vote is not moving. Tajo is scummy. Xvart/Chrono, I'm not confident in.

Seraphim- Reason for the xvart vote? Do you find him scummy? why?

Also, I wouldn't suggest making your moving plans public. The cult may be able to use their powers on the building and not just a player.

Kat 1189- That's hilarious. Thinking you can get us to lynch someone by not participating. All that joke needs is a bar or a donkey and it'll be golden.

Yos- tsk, tsk, tsk. Already distancing yourself from the lynch while helping it go through.

Since Yos has more votes than Tajo here, I'm willing to switch. I've been getting a null feel for Yos, but that post just screams scummy.

unvote, vote: Yosarian2

[Porochaz]

Meh DGB, lets count it as a point against you and will be scrutinising you carefully tomorrow.

unvote vote yos

[DrippingGoofball]

unnofficial votecount

xvart - 9 (Yosarian2, ThAdmiral, Chronopie, Fritzler, bvoigt, Lady Lambdadelta, Kats, Seraphim)
Chronopie - 6 (Andrius, xvart, Cobblerfone, Magister Ludi, Zdenek, ooba)
Yosarian2 - 5 (Herodotus, NS, DGB, Poro, Batt)
ThAdmiral - 2 (Dry-fit, Tanarin)
Tanarin - 2 (populartajo, springlullaby)
Cobblerfone - 1 (Flameaxe)
Magister Ludi - 1 (Bunnylover)
Flameaxe - 1 Andrius

[DrippingGoofball]

Ludi 1161: Exaggeration or have you dropped me as a suspect, since I'm not on the xvart wagon?

Do you KNOW xvart isn't cult?

[Flameaxe]

You have andy voting twice, by the way.

[Andrius]

You have andy voting twice, by the way.

I'm a double-voter.
Once I get my first delivery in on time I get an extra vote.
Scared?

[Andrius]

This sentence:
"Andy - let me predict your future: you have a long and frustrating game ahead of you."

It can't be as bad as the first one- unless every townie left alive pulls a "fuck you town" and waits to get recruited for LOLwin.

[Herodotus]

Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.

Wrong on all three counts. None of those were "sheeping", unless "sheeping" means "any time anyone attacks anyone that anyone else has ever attacked".

Here is how I see your xvart vote:
Yos: The scum will probably recruit someone of the following description: (general qualifications that about 1/3 of the playerlist meets)
DGb: Yes, and specifically, they chose xvart!
Others: I agree, vote: xvart. (discuss, discuss)
Yos: Yeah, I was thinking of xvart before; vote: xvart. (ignore xvart almost entirely, but park vote)

With regard to cobbler and Ludi, they were both looking town (to me), but had wagons on them, when you started finding them scummy.
These were the three earliest viable wagons, and you supported all of them. That can be explained either by you legitimately considering them the three scummiest players, or by you being scum. The first explanation requires a coincidence.
Battousai also supported all of them at some point IIRC, but there is other evidence that he is not cult-recruited so far.

The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes.

Yes, it's a completely unconfirmable claim that town are very reluctant to lynch. That's why it's a great scum claim.

That being said, you'll notice I never actually voted him at any point today, because I'm uncomfortable with the risk that he might be telling the truth.

I believe I asked you long ago something like "what led Cobbler to claim?"

Yes, you haven't moved your vote once today. That means either that you're town and very confident about xvart being scum, or you're scum. But if you're town and confident that xvart is scum, why did you say so little about him and ask him no questions? I just ISO'ed you and searched for "xvart". You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.

On another, related, note: How moronic is this game coming to if we are using the same logic as the RVS two days before deadline? "I'm guessing XXXXXX would be a good recruit based on nothing in the 50 fucking pages of thread but pure speculation" shouldn't be a serious wagon this late into the day.

You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.

Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.

Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.

NS is town (because I am town and I don't think we've ever been opposite alignments before).

This is obviously silly faillogic. I assume it's code for "gut or meta".

xvart is right that the wagon on him is questionable; it's also full of parked votes and little argument after the first few RL days, which, on day one, are characteristic of a group that isn't scumhunting. BUT, assuming there are no teams of scum, I'm not sure this is much of a defense per se.
If you had been working all along like you have recently, the wagon on you may have gone away...

The cult may be able to use their powers on the building and not just a player.

Was thinking the same. If they can mass-kill or mass-recruit based on buildings, then planned meetups are super dangerous.

[Flameaxe]

You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.

Which doesn't show anything damning against Yos that couldn't be damning for about 5 other people. Your point?

[Andrius]

NS is town (because I am town and I don't think we've ever been opposite alignments before).

This is obviously silly faillogic. I assume it's code for "gut or meta".

xvart is right that the wagon on him is questionable; it's also full of parked votes and little argument after the first few RL days, which, on day one, are characteristic of a group that isn't scumhunting. BUT, assuming there are no teams of scum, I'm not sure this is much of a defense per se.
If you had been working all along like you have recently, the wagon on you may have gone away...

It is gut-meta. He's scummy and lurky as fuck even as a God. So I think he's town; plus he's not trying to do much of anything. (And a crappy recruitment choice, but.) Is the second block to me? Because I don't have a wagon.

Can we lynch springlullaby? Or Ludi? xvart reads town right now.

On the cult-target-buildings deal, I feel like if that is true, while minimizing movement WOULD prevent them from getting to us easier, but we need to move to make deliveries and whatnot, so.

[Andrius]

OH SWEET.
I thought deadline was TONIGHT, when its TOMORROW NIGHT.
Cool because I have to go to a meeting later, so.

[xvart]

Just found these two responses in an open tab. I apparently forgot to copy them over in my last response. I see Flameaxe already posted something similar to the first one but anyways:

EBWOP: Everyone ignored my post calling for a lynch over a week ago.

Great. So you have been championing getting a lynch but not

a particular

lynch. That doesn't really improve your situation or standing in my eyes.

Apparently no one bothered to read that there are bankable days in play.

Great contribution. Let's just quick lynch everyday so we have longer and longer deadlines that we won't need since we just stacking up massive deadlines. Yes, I know that is sensationalized but my frustration level is above to boil over. The fact remains that you just want to get a lynch for the sake of lynching despite this being the likely best day we have to win this game; but you want longer deadlines on later days when the Cults are already out of control because there is more information then? By then it's going to be too late.

---

DGB:

With 25 voters, it will take 13 to lynch. Nightfall will occur no later than the end of June 14th, server time;

Plus about twenty references to the end of day being around the corner in the last four pages.

Seraphim- Reason for the xvart vote? Do you find him scummy? why?

Good luck with this. He's only read up to page 10.

You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.

This is the predominate trend. You could ISO anyone and pretty much get the same result.

[Herodotus]

You should ISO Yos2 and search for xvart, like I did.

Which doesn't show anything damning against Yos that couldn't be damning for about 5 other people. Your point?

You have said nothing about what makes you think he's scum other than his being a desirable recruitment candidate. I just checked again. Nothing, other than one point when you quoted a paragraph from Battousai and said you agreed, comes close to discussing xvart's play in this game.

This is the predominate trend. You could ISO anyone and pretty much get the same result.

I hadn't noticed that. I did notice that there has been a lot of sheeping, and figured that was originally part of the trend that many people are playing to potential future win conditions and recently part of the trend of compromising for realistic lynches.

I like my vote better than I like either of your votes right now.

@Andrius: The second part of what you quoted was about xvart.

[DrippingGoofball]

Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.

Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.

It is. It is quite scummy. Think about it.

[Mr. Flay]

Mr. Flay - can you answer this question: does overkill get indicated on kill flavor? i.e. "xvart was shot twice during N1"?

No.

inHimshallibe replaces Dry-fit, effective immediately.

Fourteenth Vote Count of Day One:

xvart - 8 (Yosarian2, ThAdmiral, Chronopie, Fritzler, bvoigt, Lady Lambdadelta, Katsuki, Seraphim)
Chronopie - 5 (xvart, Cobblerfone, Magister Ludi, Zdenek, ooba)
Yosarian2 - 5 (Herodotus, Nobody Special, DrippingGoofball, Battousai, Porochaz)
ThAdmiral - 2 (

Dry-fit

inHimshallibe, Tanarin)
Tanarin - 2 (populartajo, springlullaby)
Magister Ludi - 2 (Bunnylover, Andrius)
Cobblerfone - 1 (Flameaxe)

Not Voting: nobody!

With 25 voters, it will take 13 to lynch. Nightfall will occur no later than the end of June 14th, server time. Due to the ridiculous number of prods out right now, 12 will lynch

AT

deadline; 13 before.

[Yosarian2]

\
Yos- Since each side only has 1 scum, we lose a bit of tells. Combine that with the scum being able to manipulate us (as in, town at best has random chance at lynching scum D1), it's at a lower threshold. Also, please explain to me how not removing a town player from the game (mislynching) will make it easier for scum to fulfill their win condition than if we do mislynch?

Cult games tend to end one of two ways; either the town lynches the cult early, or the cult obliterates the town late. There is very little middle ground.

Every day we don't lynch a scum, the cults grow bigger rapidly and the town grows smaller rapidly. The difference between a mislynch and a no-lynch is relitivly small.

Lynching scum today is probably our best chance of winning. I can't imagine why we no lynch today; we might as well just give up the entire game if we're not going to even try to lynch scum now. If you're seriously suggesting a no-lynch, that's the most anti-town thing I've heard all game.

Yos- tsk, tsk, tsk. Already distancing yourself from the lynch while helping it go through.

What? I'm completely in favor of the Xvart wagon. When did I ever "distance myself from it"?

[Yosarian2]

Sheeping attacks on xvart, Cobbler, and Ludi.

Wrong on all three counts. None of those were "sheeping", unless "sheeping" means "any time anyone attacks anyone that anyone else has ever attacked".

Here is how I see your xvart vote:
Yos: The scum will probably recruit someone of the following description: (general qualifications that about 1/3 of the playerlist meets)

1/3 of the player list? There's somewhere between 2 and 4 people in this game who are both top quality players and low profile. It's a pretty rare combination.

I first made the case for lynching xvart. i didn't mention him by name, but he's exactly the person i was thinking of, and DGB agreed with me and voted for the person I was planning on voting for.

With regard to cobbler and Ludi, they were both looking town (to me), but had wagons on them, when you started finding them scummy.

Cobbler made an incredibly scummy claim with, what, 3 votes on him. That was the point when I attacked him. 3 votes is barely a wagon, and if you thought someone looked town AFTER he claimed unrecruitable for no reason, then...i don't know what to say.

As for Ludi, I don't think he really ever had a wagon on him. At one point he had 3 votes, but I think that was it. I wasn't the only person to suspect him, but he was never in any significant danger of being lynched.

Again, your definition of "sheeping" seems to be "suspecting someone with a logical reason if anyone has ever voted for them at all."

The attack on Cobbler is particularly suspicious because Cobbler claims to be a town PR that cult can't recruit to serve their purposes.

Yes, it's a completely unconfirmable claim that town are very reluctant to lynch. That's why it's a great scum claim.

That being said, you'll notice I never actually voted him at any point today, because I'm uncomfortable with the risk that he might be telling the truth.

I believe I asked you long ago something like "what led Cobbler to claim?"

I spent ages trying to ask Cobbler that, and he never gave me a straight answer that made sense. He also quasi-changed his claim once I started pointing out how flawed it was, which makes it even more doubtful to me.

The most logical reason for "why did Cobbler claim unrecrutable" is "his cult recruiter mentioned in pre-game that unrecruitable would be a great fake claim, and like many newbie scum with a great fake claim, he couldn't wait to claim it." That fits his behavior better then any pro-town explanation I can come up with.

But if you're town and confident that xvart is scum, why did you say so little about him and ask him no questions?

(shrug) He's been relatively quiet today. Not lurking, but not really active. I'm also suspicious by the way he just calmly accepts that he's the main wagon. The biggest part of the case against him, though, is the WIFOM stuff, and that's not really something he can answer questions about.

[xvart]

Come to think of it, a vig list is extremely anti-town.

Not on day one of this game from someone who is likely to be lynched. I think it's null.

It is. It is quite scummy. Think about it.

No. It is not. You keep saying directing who the Cults to recruit is a bad thing. It's not. Think about it for two seconds. What is the one thing that scares cult the most? Losing membership. First of all, it is highly likely that at least one N0 recruit is in that pool simply based on game play and likely behavior of D1 recruits. All of our vigs fire and we hit one that's great. We start tomorrow a great deal better than we are right now plus we don't have any vigs waiting to be recruited and used against us (if they can be recruited). PLUS, we have a great idea of the recruit pool to start looking at tomorrow for N1 recruits since a recruiter isn't going to risk getting a recruit shot the same night he/she is recruited.

Since you and a half dozen other people have spent all day sitting around going "xvart is omg so the most obvious recruit and by the way I don't care about trying to identify the other recruit even if he is actually a recruit" we have nothing to go on.

Plus, the added benefit of trimming the fat of a lot of players who haven't taken a stand on anything or made any sort of thoughts on other players which make ideal recruits later on because we can't catch them in a lie or flip flopping based on being recruited BECAUSE THEY HAVEN'T SAID ANYTHING ABOUT ANYTHING.

Again, I repeat, is there any chance at all, knowing that all the vigs were going to fire tonight from a select pool of players, they would risk recruiting from that pool of players? WIFOM be damned in this scenario because it is just stupid play on their part. Losing one recruit could mean the end of the game for them. I know because I was on the recruiting team last game where we were down players immediately from the beginning of the game. They'll never catch up. Directed vig shots on the very first available night puts us in a much better position tomorrow because it is exactly like today only the available recruit pool is actually substantial instead of just crap WIFOM and stubborn nonsense.

Tomorrow is going to be just like today if we do not direct vig shots except we'll be lynching based on 4/22. If we do direct vig shots we'll be looking for recruits in a pool of 2/13 and 2/10 at worst and 4/13 at best. Those are odds we need right now at the beginning of the game.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Why do you clowns always wait until the last minute to make a decision? Bankable deadlines, helloo?

Guess I'll coordinate my team from Goofbash

Don't peak DGB.

[Tanarin]

Ok it is post like xvart's last post that really make me feel like he is not part of a cult at this point. As was pointed out before, most of the main case against Xvart was the fact he was most likely a recruit choice and it pretty much has stuck all game.

Unvote

@Yos2: Ok you believe Cobbler is scum, yet you are on xvart? Still feel that is the right place to put your vote?

[xvart]

Ok it is post like xvart's last post that really make me feel like he is not part of a cult at this point. As was pointed out before, most of the main case against Xvart was the fact he was most likely a recruit choice and it pretty much has stuck all game.

Unvote

@Yos2: Ok you believe Cobbler is scum, yet you are on xvart? Still feel that is the right place to put your vote?

You weren't voting me before...

[Albert B. Rampage]

This game is on a real-life timer. Twenty-two days of inanity.

Peace is an achievable dream, yes?

[Kinetic]

Have fun at Goofbash, wish it was occurring closer to the southern hemisphere.