Wizards at the Sorcerers' Den - Endgame

[SnakePlissken]

Right just to note I am back from my V/LA and I will post in a short while of where I am in this game.

[Zdenek]

Back and catching up. I've looked through the thread quickly, and will read more carefully soon.

Something that caught my eye as I was reading was how abruptly Zdenek changed his read when Pine claimed. Even as Pine was pushing his own lynch Zdenek believed he was scum, and suddenly changed when Pine claimed. Why is that?

Pine's play was starting to look like frustrated town, so I was having a hard time deciding on him; although, before his claim, I still thought he was scum. The way that he claimed, and in particular the fact that he claimed to have an "interesting, but extremely conditional ability" made me think that he's town. While I can see the usefulness of scum claiming to have an extremely conditional ability, my feeling was that that detail is something that scum wouldn't have bothered including at that time being at L-7 (I think).

1)Zdenek does look like he's planting reasons to vote that person later in case a BW forms, all without 1) Giving much reasoning himself and just following whatever other person says 2) Flip-Flopping a bit too much for my eyes.

Where?

[quote="Babyspice]
I kinda like clear answers to questions. I kinda like seeing things supported by quotes. I don't mind poor thinking if someone at least tries to present it readibly. (Lord knows I do enough poor thinking at times)
Zdenek is doing none of these. not answering questions, or when he does answer them the answers on't seem to relate to the question. This I think is deliberate

Example:

It's not that [Pine] was alarmist per se, but that he built up from a reasonable thing to an alarmist thing.
That he escalated his rhetoric with nothing from Icey that would have supported such an escalation.

Your reasoning here is garbage because you are trying to argue that Soben didn't build up from a reasonable statement to an alarmist one, which is patently false.

Don't see the relevence to Soben. Not a clear answer or not a clear thought. A quote would have been brill.
[/quote]
You were arguing that your rationale for voting for Pine was a good one - that Pine escalated from having reasonable suspicion of IceyC to being alarmist. The relevance to Soben is that they did the same thing:

Iceys win condition could simply be to recieve x amount of votes during the game thus although I don't see him as scum I have no reason to vote him.

I call play that I believe has no scum-motivation whatsoever "Town-tells" which I generally associate with town, at the same time given the setup style I can see possibilties of you being third party/alternate faction with the risks of voting you being severe.

You really want to continue pushing this? I see the possibly of roles such as a cult-recruiter who is only allowed to recuit if he obtains x number of votes a day in the game thus there are indeed risks to voting him while no risks in not doing so.

but you didn't say a word.

Why are we still FOS'ing? Gaggle voted and unvoted successfully.

[Baby Spice]

With no associative tells to be established how can you say someone is town but still possibly third party?

Roles and factions: This is a rather vanilla-less setup. All factions have a winnable condition. If a win condition is achieved, and it doesn't directly interfere with the win condition of another faction, the game will keep on. For example, if the win condition of a player is to get certain player lynched, should that player achieve that condition (and no other win condition is achieved at the same time), the game can keep on. There is at least one town faction and one scum faction. Town faction is called Sorcerers, while scum faction is called Wizards. Other factions may exist, and they may have wizards, sorcerers, or other classes.

The OP implies multiple third party roles in the setup, Iceys win condition could simply be to recieve x amount of votes during the game thus although I don't see him as scum I have no reason to vote him.

Your reasoning of it not being optimal is based around the belief that we may not be town.

Which, in that case, leads us back to the original of point of, why are you going to call us town if you're not willing to act as such?

I call play that I believe has no scum-motivation whatsoever "Town-tells" which I generally associate with town, at the same time given the setup style I can see possibilties of you being third party/alternate faction with the risks of voting you being severe.

Basically, if Soben thinks Icey is town, Soben has little reason not to vote Icey like Icey asks because Icey clearly has reason that they can't reveal for asking for votes. If Soben's reason not to vote is the stated above, then I've debunked that. If it's because Soben isn't sure if Icey is town, there's still little reason not to because Soben has a townread on Icey, meaning it's more likely that there will be positive effects from voting Icey than negitave effects.

You really want to continue pushing this? I see the possibly of roles such as a cult-recruiter who is only allowed to recuit if he obtains x number of votes a day in the game thus there are indeed risks to voting him while no risks in not doing so.

Quoting in context is good btw.

First post, see's Icey as third party and wont vote for him as Soben sees it as risky.

Second post, calling Icey third partyand see's voting for him as risky.

Third post calls Icey third party and points out a specific case as an example of why voting for him could be bad.

There's no escalation there. Unlike Pine who was acting all Chicken Little. There's specific answers to specific questions/posts from different people. It's way different. Especially when you take it in context.

Why are we still FOS'ing? Gaggle voted and unvoted successfully.

Maybe we should conduct a second test and have everyone vote/unvote you then?

Or perhaps you should read the thread.

[LimMePls]

I still think Katy should swing. Pretty sure she's scum, for all the reasons I've already said.

Dry-fit is an ok lynch, but reads lazy to me. Looks more like an easy target for scum to point out.

[Riceballtail]

I'm okay with Katy too, but Dry just screams it more to me.

[inHimshallibe]

Ok, discussed and fixed. Now that that's done:

@whoever hit me- you suck.

I wish I had a big ass bomb, I'd blow everyone up, and let the undead pop back up and win.

I think vote counts can still be analyzed, despite what someone said yesterday.

FoS: Dry-Fit

(sheeping only confirmed town for now)

We shall see about that softclaim. Are you undead?

Nobody else attack PeregrineV today. I'll use one of my spells on him. If he takes damage, then he's not undead- likely a Wizard. If anyone is a watcher, you can assist me in confirming his alignment

I approve of this product AND service.

[IceyCupcake]

I, on the other hand, can almost smell the outcome.

Beefster: "Targets him with random doohickey."
No damage

Beefster: "Oops, he's undead, guess we're both town, teehee."

[inHimshallibe]

I, on the other hand, can almost smell the outcome.

Beefster: "Targets him with random doohickey."
No damage

Beefster: "Oops, he's undead, guess we're both town, teehee."

I just want them both dead at this point. I didn't really take into account SHENANIGANERY.

[IceyCupcake]

WHY WOULDN'T BEEFSTER PULL SHENANIGANS IF HE'S SCUM? IT'S ANOTHER DAY HE GETS TO LIVE! IT'S NOT LIKE WE NEED TO LYNCH HIM TO KILL HIM!

Will do an FOS count when I care and people are posting.

[WrathChild]

It's time for the wizards to strike back. Under siege on their own hideout, the sorcerers must find a way to survive the unexpected and lethal attack from the wizards. Will be the wizards able to destroy once for all the growing threat of the sorcerers? Or will the sorcerers show their superior powers?

Mod:

Snow_Bunny

Back-up mod:

Empking

Status:

Day 2

Still in the Material World

2-

gandalf5166

3-

A Gaggle of Geese

chesskid3

5-

Riceballtail

6-

Katy

7-

Bunnylover

8-

IceyCupcake

10-

Dry-fit

11-

SnakePlissken

12-

WrathChild

14-

Beefster

15-

PeregrineV

16-

BabySpice

17-

LynchMePls

18-

Zdenek

19-

Mana_Ku

20-

inHimshallibe

21-

SGRaaize

23-

Feysal

In a plane far beyond (dead)

Andrius, a

vampire (sorcerers)

, was killed during pregame.
24- Pine, a

wight (sorcerers)

mysteriously dies on Day 1.

5- Riceballtail, a

wight (sorcerers)

is lynched on Day 1.

9- Amrun, a

spellthief (sorcerers)

is killed by a vengeful spirit on Day 1.
22- implosion, a

flameskull (sorcerers)

is found torn in pieces on Day 1.
4- Albert B. Rampage, a

wight (sorcerers)

was destroyed on Day 1.
13- Soben, a

wight (sorcerers)

was found lifeless on Night 1.
1- CryMeARiver, a

blood sorcerer(sorcerers)

was found torn in two on Night 1.

Removed from all existence (removed from the game)

None yet

Ok, I'm transitioning back into work from a long period off, so I just want to talk out loud for a minute and try to get my bearings.

So we lynched RBT (Wight) who vengeful townied Amrun (Spellthief).
-The first thing this tells me is that the theory about Wights being VTs is BS and I plan on investigating that in a bit.

Implosion was a flameskull and torn to pieces during Day.
-I find the method of death to be important clues. We have this confirmed by the vengeful spirit kill on Amrun. So I'm noting the method of murder here.

ABR (wight) was also destroyed Day 1.
-This screams Wizard kill to me. I don't think ABR was particularly threat to the Wizards this early, but he had this feeling of loaming greatness in scumhunting that could have easily drew the attention of scum. He also claimed to have a heavy killing role (ISO #4), which would also scare scum. Interesting that he also flipped Wight, making another stupid-strike for whoever was pushing the Wight = VT theory.

Soben (Wight) was found lifeless Night 1.
-This really feels like the Scum Faction Kill to me, Soben seemed pretty pro-town.

CMAR (Blood Sorceror) was torn in two Night 1.
-Here we are with a method of murder repeat. Implosion was also torn apart during Day 1. I believe the same person that killed Implosion killed CMAR. This leads me to believe there is a SK in this game as Implosion and CMAR don't feel like Town-Vig targets.

I need to read and digest this for a bit.

[WrathChild]

EBWOP:
loaming = looming

[IceyCupcake]

Hmmm. That would make ManaKun the target of the scum damaging abilities that were NOT kills.

Implosion/CMAR SCREAM Serial Killer to me, as I can't see either of them being scum shots. ABR was obv-scum shot, no one thought he was scum, Soben was the same.

So:
Mana
Soben
ABR

Are who the scum hit.

[SGRaaize]

Speaking of Mana_Ku, she hasn't talked in 12 days, she should probably get a prob...

[Katy]

Bunnylover already alluded to this, but I am pretty sure that not all night actions hit their intended targets last night. So analyzing the night kill based on who the target was might not be reliable.

[Feysal]

Pine's play was starting to look like frustrated town, so I was having a hard time deciding on him; although, before his claim, I still thought he was scum. The way that he claimed, and in particular the fact that he claimed to have an "interesting, but extremely conditional ability" made me think that he's town. While I can see the usefulness of scum claiming to have an extremely conditional ability, my feeling was that that detail is something that scum wouldn't have bothered including at that time being at L-7 (I think).

I double checked what you said in your post where you voted Pine prior to his claim, and it does seem to match what you're saying here, so fair enough. The way I originally read it I thought you had to be a wight yourself with matching abilities to believe Pine so suddenly, or scum. Later when you criticized SnakePlissken for ignoring the claim, it appeared to contradict you being a wight. If you were and that was your reason to trust Pine, surely you would realize that other town roles might not share that trust, possibly not even consider the claim that important.

I thought I had another point against you which would've been far more compelling, but as soon as I started quoting posts I realized I'd made a serious error. Somehow I thought your post #624 was made after Amrun's #646. I blame the fact that in my time zone, your post was made at 12:21 AM and Amrun's at 11:30 AM, and since I never verified the post numbers until now and only looked at their timestamps, I got their order confused. That made the rest of your interaction with Amrun look extremely scummy. Now, you're back to null, and I've got to figure out if this forum has a 24-hour setting somewhere.

Un-FOS: Zdenek

With my other main suspect seriously injured, I need to look into some other people. Dry-fit has said and done too little for me to have a read on, and I had Katy pegged as town early on. Time to revisit that read and see if it still holds.

Implosion/CMAR SCREAM Serial Killer to me, as I can't see either of them being scum shots. ABR was obv-scum shot, no one thought he was scum, Soben was the same.

I disagree about Implosion and CMAR. There was a wagon on Implosion, and there were people calling him scummy at the end of the day. CMAR had him on his list of acceptable targets for town to hit, for instance. As for CMAR, I had a solid town read on him, and he had soft claimed his power role to boot. I think CMAR would be an obvious target for scum.

I agree that ABR was obvtown, Soben somewhat less so.

[Beefster]

Bunnylover already alluded to this, but I am pretty sure that not all night actions hit their intended targets last night. So analyzing the night kill based on who the target was might not be reliable.

That makes sense. Baby Spice could very well be scum, then...

Of course my spells can't be used to "cheat". Three cheers for swinginess!

[Riceballtail]

So we lynched RBT (Wight) who vengeful townied Amrun (Spellthief).

Just so you scumbags know, this applies to NKs too, except I can choose from all one of you who's attacking me.

[IceyCupcake]

CryMeARiver 2011-06-05 10:24:40 8 days 23 hours 90
Amrun 2011-06-03 12:33:59 10 days 21 hours 134
Soben 2011-06-03 01:58:42 11 days 7 hours 100
implosion 2011-06-02 16:36:05 11 days 17 hours 41
Albert B. Rampage 2011-06-01 14:02:22 12 days 19 hours 60
chesskid3 2011-05-31 17:49:53 13 days 15 hours 74

Mana_Ku

2011-05-31 16:32:01 13 days 17 hours 28

Everyone on that list except Mana has replaced out or died.

[LimMePls]

Not much new to say here folks. Katy should still swing.

[Bunnylover]

Bunnylover already alluded to this, but I am pretty sure that not all night actions hit their intended targets last night. So analyzing the night kill based on who the target was might not be reliable.

This above.
I apologize for the inconvenience . It won't happen again .
But anyways, there is very little to go on for a vote. Going to go through some ISO to find something or somewhere scum has slip.

[WrathChild]

I've narrowed the possible scum down to:

7- Bunnylover
11- SnakePlissken
14- Beefster
16- BabySpice
17- LynchMePls
18- Zdenek
20- inHimshallibe
21- SGRaaize
23- Feysal

Snake, inhim and SGR are bruised. Beef is dying. This means no lynching Beef IMO, but I'd still be open to lynching any of the bruised players, particularly snake.

[GreyICE]

why isn't Katy scum?

[WrathChild]

why isn't Katy scum?

She could be, I took her off the list because I believe she soft-claimed/breadcrumbed something in a non-scum way. I could be wrong. I'm currently going through ISOs of the above suspects.

[WrathChild]

why isn't Katy scum?

She could be, I took her off the list because I believe she soft-claimed/breadcrumbed something in a non-scum way. I could be wrong. I'm currently going through ISOs of the above suspects.

You know what, I just read Bunny and am replacing Bunny with Katy. It was Bunny who brought up the point in question.

[PeregrineV]

@WC- I like all your postings regarding kill analysis and such.
So are we going on the fact that the only town-killed-town is Amrun? Isn't 4 scum kills a night like way too many?