Battle for Olympus - Game Over!

[Nachomamma8]

Of course, CK.

[chesskid3]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

http://media.photobucket.com/image/rece ... /avjfk.jpg

have to edit it and shit

but that one look good?

[Iecerint]

1. So you're proposing that CK and LC are scum together to accomodate the possibility that CK may not be an actual roleblocker?

That is possible, and it would explain CK's bizarre LC fascination, but it is presupposing a lot to discredit an otherwise-confirmed aspect of CK's claim.

2. OH OK. That makes sense, scum shenanigans notwithstanding.

I suppose I could independently WIFOM on the possibility of it being a scum plot provided I claim whether I was blocked after the fact, though.

[quadz08]

I think we should lynch Gem. Confirmed SK who isn't guaranteed to kill? Not worth our time to keep around. Plus, anti-town w/ double vote = bad news.

killkillkill.

[Gemini]

We are guaranteed to kill if everyone is telling the truth about their gender. If we target them and they don't die but instead join our neighborhood, they'll have some explaining to do, will they not? Anyway, we've made our offer to give you a vig power. And since you, quadz, are confirmed town, and confirmed female, we're on town's side. The only people who should worry about us right now are scum, who, as Katy pointed out, need to have us lynched because they can't NK us.

[quadz08]

@Mod: Assuming that Gemini's role does exist, would such a role winning in endgame prevent town from winning at the same time?

[LordChronos]

1. Isn't it pretty much confirmed that CK can roleblock given that LC's ability *didn't work* yesterday (i.e. rather than ONLY being redirected by gandalf)?

2. Not sure of the basis by which people are promoting whichever targets for my ability (I guess they're assuming I'm insane rather than paranoid?) BUT w/e.

Actually, my ability failing would have happened even without a roleblock from CK. My power doesn't work on live people, remember?

I like Nacho's first proposal more than his second if we are going to not lynch Gemini today. I don't get why we would have Gemini castrate him if chess flips town.

[Charon]

@Mod: Assuming that Gemini's role does exist, would such a role winning in endgame prevent town from winning at the same time?

Well, if Car A were travelling at 30mph and Train B at 240mph and Car A is heading towards Train B from 500 miles away and Seagull C is sitting on the track midway between them when will Train D impact with Falling_Airplace E?






(Aka, I can't answer that.)

[quadz08]

Yeah ok she dies. Can't risk it.

[Gemini]

Our wincon would be that we leave the game if/when all males are dead. This means the game would continue without our presence. I see that as meaning the town can still win as long as scum are dead. Again, it would be preferable for you to lynch an Egyptian today anyway. With MoI's hated townie status, we have a double vote that's keeping the threshold higher. With unknown scums left, and a lowered threshold like that, and a NK looming over the head of your JK, there are far riskier factors than us. We can neighborize you tonight if that would be preferable, so you could at least verify that we don't kill female targets. (And you can't be killed anyway, so we don't waste a protect.)

[Shadow Dancer]

Your points:
There could be two SKs: Okay. Sure. I doubt there's two SKs.

There's haven't been other SK kills, so no...

I could be a lyncher: I could slaughter SD immediately, fulfill my lynching wincon, leave the game.

No, becuause as a lyncher you'd need me

lynched

. But Agar could have tried that on D1, but did the exact opposite.

I could be fakeclaiming scum: There are no Greek scum, so Hades would have to be a fakeclaim. Which is a hell no, considering this is mod's first time modding Greek Mythology like he really wanted to and Hades is his favorite.

Still we have to trust the fact that you cannot win without us! And I have to trust that a you win does not imply a me (and Zeus) loss in particular!

I could be a survivor who needs to kill Poseidon and Zeus: Then I would not claim anything sketchy, and I would wait for the confirmed town jailkeeper to die instead of taking him into my realm and making him a true god.

But you need to make sure scum is killed before you can win anyway, that is not a safety mechanism agains you betraiing town at the finish line.

[Shadow Dancer]

Unvote, Vote: chesskid

New plan.
Lynch chesskid, bring Egyptian team down to 1 (or 0). If he flips town, Hera castrates me.
If he flips Egyptian, Gemini shoots Magna, Magna blocks Gemini.
Iec targets me to ease the crazy pain.
I graverob Axel to check out LC.
SD blocks whoever he pleases and confirms them as town.

And LordChronos targets Chronopie I guess?

The point is that if chess flipped scum you could just decide to become ballsy and kill me.

[Shadow Dancer]

I'm confirming myself as town so me and SD can be confirmed town BROS.

FACT:
Nacho and SD are town.

ASSUMPTIONS:
Magna's probably not scum, by virtue of claim.
Iecerint's probably not scum, by virtue of Dekes's "no more egyptians" comment. If he had just been DK'ed by his buddy, he wouldn't be worried about connections.

So,
I graverob Axelrod to take care of LC.
Magna blocks chess and SD blocks ooba to make sure they aren't scum together.
Iecerint targets SD to take care of SD's paranoia.
AGM protects me so SD can continue to do his thing.
LC does his thing and gets last words out of Chrono.

If LC is found to be scum, LC dies.
If there is no kill and LC is clean, then Me/Iec/LC/SD are all town and the game is won.
If there IS a kill and LC is clean, AGM dies.

I think I like this one better - for the simple fact that chess is more or less just one among a bunch of possible blind shots in the dark compared to confirmed SK Gem.
And, yeah, if you do any crazy things you're pulp... Unless you fulfil a secret wincon (Hades in Greek Mythology Mini did just that!)...
Please answer me on question: What induced you to claim an anti-town role/wincon when you could have just claimed to be Hades and your powers?

[Shadow Dancer]

But Iec's bolt usage (admittedly not during a night though) did not interfere with any of his normal actions. Looks like a sloppy unblance in itme design.

Great. What’s that mean?

That means that the bolt is significantly much more powerful than any other item, because it allows the bearer a full set of night actions while the other stuff overwrites them... This is very awkward and if true a sloppy flaw in role design IMO.

Um, where exactly is the Evidence that Chesskid is a role-blocker?

And where's the evidence that he isn't? There's a quite good chance that chess is scum, derived from his claims... But it is still not stringent evidence.

[Shadow Dancer]

1. Isn't it pretty much confirmed that CK can roleblock given that LC's ability *didn't work* yesterday (i.e. rather than ONLY being redirected by gandalf)?

2. Not sure of the basis by which people are promoting whichever targets for my ability (I guess they're assuming I'm insane rather than paranoid?) BUT w/e.

I am assuming that you're likely paranoid, maybe insane, but your exact sanity doesn't matter when your investigation is blocked in some way, which in theory it should be if you target me as long as I am in the underworld. So if you'd get

any

result Nacho would be a confirmed lyer.

[Shadow Dancer]

You do understand that ooba has another variant on this power with his super, right?

Yes. Except that he's not a graverobber.

He is exactly that.

[Shadow Dancer]

1. Isn't it pretty much confirmed that CK can roleblock given that LC's ability *didn't work* yesterday (i.e. rather than ONLY being redirected by gandalf)?

It also doesn't work on living players, he was redirected to a (by then still) living player, that is explanation enough, Chess' claim really looks more like a jump-on-opportunity.

[ooba]

I don't see why we have to keep Gemini alive for any plan since there is no benefit to the town.* (Analysis below) - Lets not be stupid here .. So I reject the second plan of Nachos ..

I graverob Axelrod to take care of LC.
Magna blocks chess and SD blocks ooba to make sure they aren't scum together.
Iecerint targets SD to take care of SD's paranoia.
AGM protects me so SD can continue to do his thing.
LC does his thing and gets last words out of Chrono.

The problem I have with this plan is that it hinges on the premise that "it is a useless scum role to have". While I subscribe to the other end i.e Overpowered in the hands of scum means town like Chronopie, please note that these kind of roles (Underpowered, Useless) make excellent claims for scum to appear as town.
- Plus what does chess do here? How does resolution work in the case of multiple roleblocks?

I have another plan suggestion. This hinges on this premise - "If chess is scum, he cannot be a roleblocker as Conspiracy was already a roleblocker and a scum team having two RB'rs is unlikely. If chess is town, he is a roleblocker"

Lynch Gemini
Nacho targets Chess with kill - Chesskid blocks Nacho
-- If chess is town, this kill will fail (Nacho keeps his kill, we prove chess is town)
-- If chess is scum, kill will go through (Nacho keeps his kill, we kill chess scum)
SD blocks AGM
Magna blocks Me
-- This is to remove possible protective roles from saving Chess and making it appear like a Nacho block
Iece targets SD
-- To remove paranoia about the JK on SD
AGM\Me really can't do anything since we're blocked
LC targets Chronopie

Note:
- Won't work if one of Magna\SD are scum with chess (unlikely)

The ONLY possible reason I can see to keep her alive is she equalizes Magnas ability if he's town .. (Assuming worst case scenarios - 2 egyptian scum, Magna is town and doesn't get killed, Town lynches Townie and scum kill goes through; Ignoring Nacho's kill for now)
Lynch her today:
D4 lynch: 8 people alive (WC: 6 Town, 2 scum)
N4 kill
D5: 7 people alive (WC: 5 Town, 2 scum) - 4 votes to lynch, (3 votes for Magna)
D5 lynch: 6 people alive (WC: 4 Town, 2 scum)
N5 kill
Game Over on D6 by scum quicklynch: 5 people alive (WC: 3 Town, 2 scum) - 3 votees to lynch, (2 votes for Magna)

Keep her alive and try to lynch egyptian scum: (+1 means her double vote)
D4 lynch: 8+1 people alive (5 Town, 2 scum, 1+1 SK)
N4 kill
D5: 7+1 people alive (4 Town, 2 scum, 1+1 SK) - 5 votes to lynch, (4 votes for Magna)
D5 lynch: 6+1 people alive (3 Town, 2 scum, 1+1 SK)
N5 kill
D6: 5+1 people alive (2 Town, 2 scum,1+1 SK) - 4 votes to lynch, (3 votes for Magna)
You think we've bought another lynch by keeping her alive but we've not - all we have done is converting a loss situation to a kingmaker situation. Lynch SK, scum wins. Lynch scum, pary for some cross killing to do our work for us - otherwise SK double voter wins.

She is lying (even now I mean)
"We can neighborize you tonight if that would be preferable, so you could at least verify that we don't kill female targets." - This is something she said to Quadz, so my question is if her motive on N3 was to frame someone by not killing, optimal play is to neighbourize Quadz - because in that case she would know if she was blocked on N3 or not and claim accordingly ..

So let's not keep the claimed SK alive. Thank you very much

[Shadow Dancer]

Let me draw the balance as I see it now:

Worst case - two egyptian scum alive
Best case - one egyptian scum left
In either case he/she is almost certainly among {Chronos, ooba, cheess}, but AGM and Magna aren't absolutely confirmed either, but let's assume they ae town...
That is 2/3 repsectively 1/3 chance to hit right with a lynch and can easily be handled by the combined protection/blocking power that the rest of the town yields right now.
Nacho is a big question mark, but his chances to gain any profit by acting against town interests right now are rather low.
Gem is a 100% confirmed serial killer.

Scum considerations:
==============
Chronos: I never really had a scum read on him. His abilities seem authentic and fit his claimed role. If it wasn't for last night's kill flavour I'd be pretty set on him being town - and Anubis hypothesis was put forth by obba, who is a strong scum read of mine, so... Meh...

Chess: Somehow he has managed to keep all of his hitherto actions unconfirmable - quite an "achievement" for a roleblocker in an all-PR setup I would say... His normal is the exact same one that Nacho got from ConS and because Nacho claimed it first it is unlikely that he is lying anout it... Hence it seems most likely that Magna is correct and chess is riding on a fake claim that is not eve his own one.
And now chess appeals to fear by saying "you don't want to lynch me and have our doc RBed", so why did he RB him in the first place, as he claimed...

ooba: His play is weird, contradictive... And he pretty blatantly tries to place these "look I

am

town, really!!!" signs on every corner... Classic "told you so" behaviour concerning Gandalf... Desperately wants to "lead" town and get a high profile as a tactician (pretty safe strategy for scum to get town credits)... Slings dirt on every one to then later say "see, my scum reads where right"... I cannot see this as town drive behaviour... His super is the counterpart to Nacho, who is more or less town (or 3rd party) and his normal profits scum a lot and is not blockable or confirmable by anything than killing him.

So my theory after considering everything - Chess and ooba are scum.

This still means we should lynch Gem today to get rid of one kill immediately.

[ooba]

Switching the block and JK around on the plan

Lynch Gemini
Nacho targets Chess with kill - Chesskid blocks Nacho
-- If chess is town, this kill will fail (Nacho keeps his kill, we prove chess is town)
-- If chess is scum, kill will go through (Nacho keeps his kill, we kill chess scum)
SD blocks Me
Magna blocks AGM
-- This is to remove possible protective roles from saving Chess and making it appear like a Nacho block
Iece targets SD
-- To remove paranoia about the JK on SD
AGM\Me really can't do anything since we're blocked
LC targets Chronopie

Note:
- Won't work if one of Magna\SD are scum with chess (unlikely)
- Also: Won't work if Nacho is scum with chess

[quadz08]

Gem, I

can

be killed. It's simply that killing me is useless, since I have no vote and don't count towards the lynch threshold; they'd just be killing my voice, since everything else is already dead.

[chesskid3]

hehe aren't you all going to feel stupid postgame

[Shadow Dancer]

Er... No... I feel no incentive to do so.
Most unfortunate though is that you obviously don't feel any stupid right now.
But maybe your mightily superior intelect has already figured it all out a long time ago and you're just to detached from such negligible minor things to care and reveal the course of things to us diminutive narrowminds...

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Gemini

As much as lynching Chesskid / LC is likely to be good outcome for Town the remote chance that it turns out as a mislynch means the 100% chance that lynching Gemini removes the Serial Killer is the best play for Town today.

Gemini’s cute “I’ve got a Double-Vote” argument fails to consider that by leaving her around to Kill we are possibly accelerating the chance of my Hated status being exploited via dead Townies by her Hand.

--

hehe aren't you all going to feel stupid postgame

Don’t think so. What exactly have you done this game to make yourself appear Town? You’ve been active lurking the last two Game Days and threw a fit when it was suggested you be scanned by Gemini (indicating you were not going to turn up Role-blocker as claimed).

--

That is possible, and it would explain CK's bizarre LC fascination, but it is presupposing a lot to discredit an otherwise-confirmed aspect of CK's claim.

What is this otherwise confirmed aspect of Chess’s claim you are talking about?

Chess’s claimed actions can’t be confirmed on any Night.
Chess’s claimed flavor has been counter-claimed by Nacho.

I’m not seeing anything else otherwise confirmed from the slot.

[ooba]

Also Gemini currently at L-3 .. Don't put her at L-4 where she can double vote out of spite to end the day ..

Magna - please unvote, let's finalize on the plan please - don't do a farside .. I don't expect Gemini to hammer but better safe than sorry ..