Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Duplicity]

Farside, if what you're essentially trying to say is that he's left his options open at various times unexplainably then yes, I agree completly. The fact he put a case up against Pros yesterday while stating he highly suspected TS and didn't find them to be possible or likely partners shows this. I would disagree with you believing his push on TS yesterday was big. He had limited options towards who he could push against due to players suspecting Pros/Myself and you to a degree minimally. That leaves him with few choices. Joining in the TS-is-scum wagon makes perfect sense for him to do in that position as scum, it gains him town-cred and puts him further into the game where he can attempt to make use of that.

Pros, if by ganging up you mean suspecting yes. You really need to start providing some reasonable content though, for example who do you current suspect, and why?

[farside22]

I felt reading LL he changed his mind more often then leaving options open.

Joining in the TS-is-scum wagon makes perfect sense for him to do in that position as scum, it gains him town-cred and puts him further into the game where he can attempt to make use of that

I was thinking about that too. By bussing his scum buddy in MyLo it gives him town cred for a scum win.

[neil1113]

I'd give you an updated vote count except... nobody's voted. Lol so instead, I'll just post to let everyone know I'm around reading and following!

[Locke Lamora]

Farside: you've played with me before. Am I always explicit about everything I'm thinking? Sometimes I like to see what people say without spelling out what I'm looking for. The point to post 9 is that quote was scummy. I read it and I thought 'wow, TS sure looks like he knows Javert is vig and he's doing a terrible job at hiding it'.

I have already explained why I didn't focus on TS, but apparently I have to say it again. First, I was pretty confident that Maxous was scum. Second, I was swayed by this from Rhinox:

Why are we even talking about TS today? We shouldm't even be considering lynching him today. If he's still alive in LyLo, then we can argue whether or not he's scum.

So yeah, I went after TS D4 instead of D3. I had a good case on Maxous on D3 and at that stage, the TS-NE situation was still buying TS enough towncred for me to second-guess my suspicions enough. That's why Rhinox's point hit home with me.

As for my vote...if you're town and you're seriously pushing that then I have no words to adequately express my frustration. I pushed TS about that statement because the way he tried to pretend he didn't remember was incredibly scummy. If you don't believe that then you need to read the game better. The more I read of his play, the more I thought he was scum and the less I believed that his 'guilty' was legit. So when he came out pretending that he was trying to pull some kind of gambit with you with a thought process that was quite clearly a lie, yeah, it pushed me over the edge into voting him. So it wasn't a weak reason, and I was quite obviously already leaning towards voting TS from what I'd found from NE's ISO and my previous concerns. Do I have to state every single reason for voting someone in a single post? No. You're capable of reading my play and realising that not only did I have multiple reasons to suspect TS, but my reason for voting him

in that post

is also much stronger than you're suggesting, so calling this vote weak is utter nonsense.

I could go back to why I didn't bring up the points against TS the day before, but it's not obvious by now then I'm just going to walk away from this game because I really can't deal with any more frustration.

Finally, I didn't vote for you yesterday. I was still second-guessing myself about TS, largely because Quilford was so mindlessly insisting that TS was town every time I brought up why he was scummy.

Duplicity: guess what? I don't know who's scum. If you've got a much higher level of certainty about that than me then you're either seeing something I'm not, or you're scum. So if you're forcing me to draw a conclusion, I believe the D1 analysis leads you to be scum. But no, I'm not by any means certain in that. If I was picking whose play is just straight-up scummiest on the face of it without factoring in connections, I'd say Prosaurus. I am most confident in Farside being town. That's all based on the D1 play. Is that clear enough for you, or are you expecting me to definitively know who's scum?

If I hear this 'why didn't you mention it earlier?' argument once more, I am going to break my computer. First off, I was a replacement in this game anyway, so I was always catching up. Secondly, you don't always spot things the first time through. Sometimes it takes reading it in the right context to notice something at all. Thirdly, Twistedspoon didn't flip until yesterday. So yeah, I didn't go back through the game checking all the connections between every player who hadn't yet flipped. Fourthly, I'm very clear about what I find scummy in Oso's attitude, and it's that he states refusal to lynch the claims but adopts this attitude more strongly

once one of the two is already dead

. It doesn't make sense. Finally, yes, I have not bothered to make a case on myself by reading back EA's interactions with TS. Do you want me to do that? Do you think it would be useful? No, that would be stupid. As is bringing it up.

Prosaurus: you're killing me.

There are so many more things I want to say but I don't think it would be productive to express my anger more vehemently. So I'll say this. Two of you are town. That means you really have no excuse to bring up points like 'why didn't you mention this earlier?' and continuously misrep my posts and arguments. You're so certain that I'm scum? Vote for me. At least then I won't have to spend hours reviewing the rest of the game just for people to misrepresent my points and claim that I'm not being conclusive enough.

I'll be back when I've calmed down.

[Prosaurus]

Yeah...
I'd say LL is scum cos of my Dup town-read and TS's WIFOM "I win" on FS. Even if it's WIFOM, it's much too risky for scum to do if they're both scum, and TS didn't do anything of the sort towards LL (Well, he did encourage me and FS to vote him, but that's not as risky by alot).

The only reason I'm not replacing out is because it's so close to the end of the game.

[Duplicity]

Locke, my point isn't that you're fencesitting moreso that you're attempting to draw far too few conclusions from your previous anaylsis. The entire point of doing an anaylsis is to gain a better view of the occurances of the game leading towards an increased likelihood to make a decision. Your post where you state your thoughts about the anaylsis had near-none of this. Stating that you were a replacement into the game and always catching up therefore unable to noticy some things before is meaningless, I myself was a replacement however replacing into the game leads you with the massive

need

to catch yourself up with everything therefore again I don't understand it being brought up earlier. Furthermore, you didn't attempt to explain your lack of reading or looking through the led post-flip so I pose this question to you now: After the flip had occured what were your actions when it came to this game, ISO'ing people, reading through the day again, closing it and waiting for day?

I've already gone through Osos actions once however for I'll re-touch on it for you, Osos intial reaction and opinon was that TS was scum, this was decreased heavily not by Enders flip but by Jul's mention and Oso realization of TS's '1-shot theme' excuse in which led to him reading the slot as town. I don't expect you to attempt to create a case against yourself over EA's reactions to TS either however you're strongly attempting to push the point Oso suspected TS at point 1, but not at point 2 while ignoring the same actions were shared by nearly the entire room with notable players include doing so including EA, Juls and Maxous.

Pros, again I urge you to provide more content, I have a good feeling I know where you're standing right now in the game however the lack of content you're providing in this game is immensely frustrating - I'm not asking you to replace out because it would be fruitless this late in the game however re-read the game and state what your scum-read on LL is based around with the exception of process of elimination.

[Duplicity]

I believe it needs to be pointed out that there's currently four days until the deadline and I'm not in the particular mood for another deadline-rush vote with the potential risk of this going into a no lynched day with Farside dying at night. I'm going to have a lengthy discussion with G later tonight with all likelihood being that we'll end up placing our vote on Locke at some point tommorow.

[farside22]

I believe in my Dup town read. Honestly if Dup is scum I would be shocked. He/Oso have been town read since day 1. I also believe TS was buddying Oso, as scum tend to do when they know someone in the game.

LL: Why did you vote Max right out of the game if you didn't read the game? Did you do an Iso, just see who flipped scum at the time? How did you come to the conclusion and why answer a question without having all the information in front of you?
Dup beat me to some other questions.

Pro: Do you have anything you wish to say, any doubts, anything that you have taken or read?

[Locke Lamora]

First off, just want to apologies if I came off as too hostile towards anyone. I'm just getting very frustrated with the state of this game and the fact that I really don't believe I'm a plausible buddy for TS, nor do I think my play has been anti-town. Prosaurus is not helping either. Anyway, I'll try to tone it down.

Duplicity: I don't believe in bringing my personal schedule into things, so suffice it to say that I wasn't around the weekend before or the day of the flip, and I also had another game in day that I needed to catch up on because of that absence when I did have some time to get online. So yes, I came back, read the 'hammer' and thought 'there's no way TS can be THAT bad, surely Farside is scum'. I didn't have the time to put into more detailed analysis of Farside-TS connections at that stage.

So as for things not being brought up earlier: flips change context. Yes, by the end of yesterday I was confident that TS was scum. That doesn't mean I read through the game in detail looking for connections to his slot prior to that.

I understand that Oso bought TS's '1-shot theme'. Here's my issue. Oso has a scumlist of M=W, Ender and TS. He claims that he is categorically against lynching Ender and TS, with a justification that I have no problem with and yes, is why EA also bought TS's claim. My problem is that M=W is his number one suspect with two players that he has said he doesn't want to lynch, so there's no need to stall his vote. In fact, if he wants to make sure that neither claim gets lynched, he should be pushing M=W's wagon and arguing more strongly that killing the claims is a bad idea (which he doesn't do, when Javert still has his shot). The stall before the vigging followed by the vote after does not sit right with me. Perhaps the timing is just unfortunate on his part. I just don't like the way he's cagey about it until after Javert has used his shot, and the response to Ender's death doesn't look like a logical thought progression. He does admit that he is modifying his voting reasons because there's obviously not an Ender-M=W connection.

Farside: by the time I actually got the chance to read the game, NE had already flipped scum. The first thing I did was to look over the immediate reactions to the guilty result and see who pinged my scumdar. Maxous' stall looked like he didn't really believe that NE was town; he was very much just buying some time. The rest of Maxous' response to the day bore out my scum-read. He claimed he was leaning NE-scum for most of the day, but there was no indication of that in his posts at all. It was very much fence-sitting and waiting to see which way the town would go. He does argue that TS is likely town at L-2 but that's very much again an absence of scumhunting in favour of discrediting the lynch. If TS had been lynched before Maxous then I might well be here arguing why Maxous is scum with the both of them now.

As for answering a question without having all the information in front of me, I must have done that hundreds of times playing mafia. I'm not even sure what question you're referring to here. I've never seen a player who's 100% aware of every post made in the thread and all the possible connections between players at one time. You yourself have admitted you tend to tunnel on suspects at times. So I answer questions when I don't know everything there is to know because otherwise this game would be an endless sequence of players stalling because they're not 100% informed. If I have a read, I state it. I don't let a read stop me from reading back and confirming or changing what I think.

Going to look again at the 'guilty' situation and see if I can get some clarity.

[Duplicity]

No problem Locke, I understand that frustration is part of the game and have myself experienced severe frustration and anger in past games at some point or another. If anything I found your level of frustration shown to be tame and minimal. Although I can understand real life taking it's toll thus removing the opportunity or chance to read through this game again I'm unsure why you didn't stop to consider the fact the TS-FS interaction to be, well not a gambit. Surely my posts stating that Farside was essentially clear would have been going through your mind.

Again though I will ask you what you're attempting to say by Oso's actions. In what way would refraining from voting Me=Weird a town player be considered a scum-tell. At that point of the day and game very few viable lynch wagons where presented and with NE and TS both being suggested at some point or another wouldn't his inclination be to attempt to start some force on the Me=Weird lynch had he been mafia rather than to stand back and refrain from pushing a particular lynch. I know this may be a large ask however I feel given the current situation it's highly needed. Locke can you get through your D2 and D3 anaylsis as quickly as possible preferably in the next 48 hours or so because nothing that's been said thus far during the day has convinced me to not vote you.

[Locke Lamora]

Well, I try not to let frustration spoil the game. I've been in games where players have got extremely offensive and it's not fun to be in even if you're not the subject of the aggression.

Sure, I considered it wasn't a gambit. I still am. That's the point when I think 'surely TS can't be THAT bad as scum'. That's the only reason to think Farside is clear, though, if you buy that it was a legitimate mistake from TS. Given that he already pulled one ridiculous gambit, I'm unconvinced that this is an honest mistake. Having read back, I don't think TS has been honest or genuine about anything in this entire game.

I think it's scummy because he's fence-sitting in a situation where his suspect list doesn't indicate he should be, and Javert hasn't used his shot. If Oso makes a more forceful argument for not shooting either of the claims, then he's a) dissuading Javert from shooting Ender, who scum-Oso would know is a 1-shot cop; and b) making himself the target of more suspicion if Javert were to shoot TS. I guess what I'm trying to say is it looks too safe. He doesn't want to commit to a course of action, which, given the threat of an imminent kill, I think is a scum mindset.

[Locke Lamora]

And yes, working on the analysis now.

[Locke Lamora]

So, I'm having a look at the sequence of events at the start of D2 and how people responded. I'll post my detailed look at the initial reactions first so that people aren't waiting on me.

557 - EA comes out pushing an Oso vote.

559 - TS states his guilty on NE and votes for him.

560 - Quilford votes NE.

561 - Farside votes NE.

562 - Rhinox votes NE (L-1).

564 - Maxous says the votes are too quick and says NE should be given a chance to respond.

565-566 - TS with some nonsense like 'I think we have one here' and suggestions of a potential framer.

567 - EA maintains his scumread on TS and townread on NE.

569 - NE votes for TS and gives multiple reasons why he is lying scum.

570 - Farside cites TS 565 as a slip because he's doubting his result and votes for him.

571-574 - TS defending himself and Farside arguing why his post looks like covering.

576 - EA votes TS for his 'one-shot cop' comment.

578-579 - Prosaurus says that EA is still scummy and he's holding his vote for now.

582-584 - Prosaurus advocates caution in choosing because scum will have the upper hand if town lynches wrong first. Says if EA is scum, NE is too, and 'we're screwed' if TS and NE are both town, and also to be careful if they're both scum.

585 - Farside repeats her belief that TS is fakeclaiming scum because of his comments after the result.

586 - NE says that Farside looks a little scummy for jumping on the M=W wagon while attacking NE's vote at the same time.

588 - Prosaurus says to be careful again, and that he thinks NE is scummier but is unsure.

592 - Prosaurus asks about whether two scumteams is possible.

593 - Duplicity says they haven't had time to catch up but that they know it's NE vs Twisted so they'd like no-one to hammer until they catch up.

597 - Prosaurus responds to Maxous' question about Farside's vote hop by saying it had better reasons than EA's, which was just easy wagoning. Then says Maxous is 'probably right'.

598 - EA suggests that Quilford's reason for not believing NE is nonsense because his response would be the same as town. He reacts angrily to Prosaurus' suggestion that he is wagon-hopping by stating that he started the TS wagon and provides a list of quotes to prove it.

599 - TS asks why no-one has been lynched yet as he has a guilty. States a town read on both Farside and Rhinox.

602 - Duplicity's (Regfan) catch-up. Leans town on NE due to interactions, strongly believes that TS is scum.

Analysis:

Farside. The early vote looks like a bus but then the about-turn onto TS's wagon looks more genuine and is based on strong reasoning. I also maintain that scum can't be sure that there isn't another town PR they need to block, so changing her mind and voting for the blocker is significant to me. NE also suggests Farside is a little scummy here which slightly reinforces my townread, as does TS very simply stating a townread - this is incompatible with the way TS has senselessly bussed NE all game long. Once again, I find myself saying that if it's a bus, it's definitely the most pro-town looking reaction of the three.

Duplicity. Unfortunately, the replacement means that Dup completely misses the early part of the day and so we do not get to see their response until a couple of days after the claim. The catch-up also comes at a point where voting would not be a good idea, so the scumread on TS gives me a slight town lean, but I can't draw much more from this.

Prosaurus. I'm battling with two instincts here. One is that unless TS decided to do this on a whim without telling his buddies, Prosaurus would almost certainly have been told by NE and TS that this was going to happen, and that he should pick a side and react accordingly. His bizarre response of basically still focusing on EA is not what I would expect from someone who had been told 'you need to bus tomorrow'. His question about two scumteams also doesn't do NE and TS any favours if he is buddies with them. The contrast is that his reaction is not at all pro-town. He fence-sits, he advocates caution instead of providing analytical content, he suggest a mild scum lean on NE but no more than that, which is weird in a 50-50 situation, and he still tries to tie EA to NE instead of focusing on the matter at hand. The other thing that gives me pause about excusing him for his reaction is that we're willing to write him off as bad town. So why do we think he'd have to be good scum? Part of me thinks NE and TS could have said 'we're faking a guilty tomorrow' and he has absolutely no idea what to do about it. He can't fake suspecting his buddies at all. He certainly can't scumhunt, so I'm less inclined to believe he's town just because he doesn't exhibit anything that scum would do in this situation, because he also hasn't been doing things we'd expect town to do. They might even have said 'continue to play as you're playing' because it had enough people believing he was town as it was. This is yet another case of Prosaurus not fitting the profile of expected scum reaction but still somehow managing to play as anti-town as possible.

Short version for Duplicity: Prosaurus is scum.

[Locke Lamora]

Two posts that I came across reading back that mean I have a hard time believing Farside or Duplicity is scum. First, Farside. This comes right at the end of D3 as NE is about to be lynched:

Here's my problem. TS's claim comes after Jav's claim (the one shot isn't there but again one shot day vig is pretty normal) and right as ender starts to claim.
I also have a hard time believing in 2 one shot cops. I never have seen it and unless scum have a RB and GF or some power roles to off set that I have more trouble believing it.
He now has a guilty on NE (who he suspected most of day 1). Framer for scum? It's possible but I don't like TS's actions. Dup brings up a possible bus.
I could see this as TS trying to earn town cred by bussing his scum buddy. Then having to explain why he is still alive as the days go on put him into a trap. I don't know I would think TS scum would be smart enough to get an innocent on another player then bussing and leaving no outs.
It just doesn't make sense.
Call me paranoid in small part to a current game.

Welcome LL you would know what game that is in reference to.

This undermines the whole point of having NE and TS bus in the first place. As a parting shot before the lynch, it damages any towncred TS might have built up from it. This is particularly pertinent given that the likes of Quilford and Rhinox were insistent that TS was town.

Next up, Duplicity on D3 after Rhinox reacts angrily to the idea that TS might be scum:

small question, but how does another power role claiming mean that you'll finally believe me?

It does in fact the opposite, if there's another power-role claim I would believe your claim less, however if there were no other power-role claims I would have to rethink my overview on the game.

Anybody who thinks TS is scum better have a damn good reason other than a baseless accusation that they were bussing. Come up with a reasonable explaination for why the hell they would do that?

I'm not saying that I fully believe he bussed, becuase G and I are still considering everything we've read but I will say there is definte advantages towards bussing. It's not a "baseless accustation".

Here are reasons why bussing woiuld be advantagous for TwistedSpoon:

1. Throughout day one there was a high amount of suspicion cast towards TwistedSpoon meaning the likelyhood that he were to be lynched on day two were massive. If he facts a guilty on his partner one of the two following situations occur:
1a. Twisted gets lynched NE looks town in comparison and thus can breeze throughout the rest of the game.
1b. NE gets lynched and town believe Twisted to be legitimate as proven via your own words.

2. Bussing a vanilla mafia means that mafia keep their power-roles while allowing themselves to get onto the NE lynch quite early making them all look good in future days.

3. NE was already highly suspected, therefore guiltiing him just moves the chances that he were to get lynched at some point in the game from highly likely to certain.

Again, not seeing why scum would waste any towncred that TS had built up by giving good reasons why he could still be scum with NE. It's not like people are pushing for a TS lynch; at this stage Maxous is voting for Farside, Rhinox is adamant that TS is town and no-one else has given any indication that they think TS is likely scum. So I'm finding it hard to believe that either Farside or Dup are scum with TS and NE because they both undermine the point of pulling the guilty gambit. Leaning very strongly towards Prosaurus-scum right now. More to come in the next 24 hours.

[farside22]

Just when I felt good with my view on Dup and Pro. I see LL's post and review..........
I keep thinking about our last game LL. You didn't go out of your way like this. I do remember the last time I had even a remote thought you were reading town to me that you would end up being scum.

I need to think about this better. I'm going to be gone for the next 2 days (all Sunday and maybe a shot to come on Monday, but my game I'm modding will be most likely starting that day).

I would like LL to finish his thoughts because as I said the only thing that makes no sense is TS's push and WIFOM about Pro yesterday.

[Duplicity]

I'm going to take the rest of the day to properly read through this and have a discussion with G however my first impression of it is that it reads as an incredibly weak attempt at pushing towards Pros for his lack of commitment or experience rather than him actually acting in a scummy manner. Don't get me wrong I understand and accept that he has played in an anti-town manner throughout some of the game and realize that doing so certaintly isn't s town-tell but at the same time his actions make no sense give the situation that has occured.

To further that I'm finding it difficult believing that Twistedspoon, NE and Prosarus three players that were all suspected planned a day two buss, it makes no sense whatsoever to do because all three had a degree of suspicion cast against them at the time. This means the entire point of the buss would be to attain town-cred and that would be the only reason to do it, if this was the reason why did Pros refrain from voting himself. Flipping it around I can see EA suggesting to buss in that situation and his actions makes perfect sense being the final scum member - He changed his opinion very quickly when the wagon changed.

[Prosaurus]

#1182
Not really, though I do wonder if LL actually

is

scum. I've thought that his slot was scum this whole game (Well, close enough), but I don't believe I've ever had a real case against him. Although he could freely vote-hop on D2 because he knew both NE and TS were scum (If he's scum), and I remember him doing so at one point.

#1184
About the TS-FS thing, I think that TS did that on purpose. No one is that dumb, especially in MyLo. If anything, I think his scumbuddy might have told him to do it. If that's the case, who would tell him to?

Yeah... I don't see how I can defend against LL saying I'm scum, but I also don't see how it means I'm scum. Sounds more like you want a policy lynch.

[neil1113]

Reminder guys, deadline for Day Five is in

2 Days.

With

4

alive, it takes

3

to Lynch.

Deadline

for Day Five is

4:00 PM EST 06/21/11

[Duplicity]

Pros, the only logical reasoning behind TS doing that on purpose is that he's mafia with Farside, any other reason would be idiotic as they'd just have had to wait until FS was hammered to win, thereby by saying that you believe it was on purpose means you're saying Farside is mafia which I strongly doubt.

I'm currently in the middle of my exam period at university so G is going to need to step in and take control here, especially with two days until the deadline. G, this is me openely stating that I would be comfortable with a Locke vote at the present moment.

[Locke Lamora]

A stack more quotes and analysis to try and settle this once and for all. I've spoilered again to not instantly fill up everyone's screen.

Spoiler: Day 3

Ok, here's where TS really starts to push on Prosaurus:

why on earth would scum have daytalk, prosaurus?

Do you know something we don't?

I want to hear from Locke :3

but yeah, the prosaurus daytalk thing could very well be a scumslip. No reason to assume daytalk at all

So TS's position here is that Prosaurus is likely scum for slipping with something that town actually has no idea of whether it's a scumtell or not (and it's soon argued that this should actually be a towntell). We'll come back to this later.

The next quote is probably going to be dismissed as WIFOM, but I think it's worth bringing up:

if another power-role were to claim during the mass-claim it would shed some light onto the likelyhood of TS's legitimacy.

small question, but how does another power role claiming mean that you'll finally believe me?

However, I do agree that both scum must have been on the NE wagon for NE to self hammer, otherwise NE would have let his partner hammer to gain townie cred

Vote: Maxous

so why maxous?

as for massclaim, I'm fine with it, but I don't think It's really my choice since I've already claimed :/

Massclaim seems a good idea since if we lynch town today, we're in MyLo tommorow. Remember that

So TS suggests that both scum were on the NE wagon. One of those was obviously him. For the record, the others were Rhinox, Erratus Apathos, Quilford, Maxous and NE himself. So I personally know for a fact that TS was lying here (disregarding the fact that NE himself was on the wagon). The rest of you can make your own mind up.

TS with a minor comment about Farside here:

Ugh, nyan cat :/

:3

yeah, Farside would be a fair lynch but massclaim would be nice too

TS has basically been pushing suspicion on Pro based on the daytalk comment for most of the day so this little indication that he'd be willing to lynch Farside sends me in circles. On one hand it looks like he's setting himself up to switch to a Farside lynch if necessary, but on the other this is very reminiscent of his attitude towards NE; basically saying that he'd back the lynch but with absolutely no scumhunting behind it.

A complaint from TS here:

I don't think they'd have expected people would discuss or believe the likelyhood of a buss, thus them doing it is optimal.

but you're doing it now, no :/

This one reads as though TS is annoyed that his bus has not worked because some people still think he's scum. Townpoints to Duplicity.

Here's where it starts to get interesting with TS and Pro:

Err... Why am I so scummy for think scum have daytalk?

cause it could have been a slip since scum don't usually have dayttalk and there was no reason to think they did :/

eh, or maybe you're just misinformed.

TS suddenly does an about-turn on his suspicion by throwing in that 'misinformed' comment here. This completely undermines the push that TS made on Pro in the first place and makes it look very fake.

Couple of interesting things here from Duplicity:

Prosaurus is town, towny town town. In this instance him thinking scum have daytalk is more likely a townslip than a scumslip. Standard site practice from what I've observed in my short time here is that scum typically do not have daytalk, therefore I assume it as the default for this game which means Prosaurus is likely to be mistaken about scum having daytalk and therefore town, this is in addition to all the other reasons to think he's town which have been discussed already. He is town.

There are a few reasons to think Twisted might have been bussing NE, I still think that the setup seems to be fairly broken if there's really a town 1-shot dayvig, two masons, AND two 1-shot cops and I can explain the numbers regarding why if there's questions. There's him being locked in a claim, there's the towncred that would come from that bus. But at the same time, I look at his day 1 interactions with NE and it doesn't really look like they were bussing to me. I'd file him as possible but unlikely scum at this point.

haven't really caught up on thread, was leaning town on rhinox, scum on farside, unsure on maxous, and had some bad doubts about EA. If farside is scum I don't think she's scum with twistedspoon, though.

-gorilla

First of all, I think the insistence that Prosaurus is town is outlined in a manner that suggests a townie mentality. It seems like a legitimate, honest analysis of what Pro's mindset could have been when making that comment. Secondly, we again return to spoiling the whole point of TS bussing NE. It's not as strong here, but this is just continuing to wipe out all the towncred TS built up despite Quilford's refusal to consider he could be anything other than town being the perfect excuse to ease off on TS.

More TS 'reads':

I was a bit surprised he was'nt roleblocked though.

so was I tbh
maybe they puposely ddn't roleblock me for this exact reason; so that you'd think this way

other than that I have no idea unless mafia don't have a roleblocker or the mafia roleblocker was roleblocked by a town roleblocker or something...

@Twistedspoon and Prosaurus: Number one suspect for mafia please. ^_^

tbh, I really don't know :/
I spent much of my time tunneling on NE that i'm outdated slightly with the rest.
Farside would be a reasonable lynch I guess. It looked as she was trying to protect NE in D2. :/

You can tell this is like pulling teeth. Now he's moved off Prosaurus completely; he doesn't even mention the daytalk thing. He cites his Farside suspicion again and actually gives a reason this time. He's definitely edging towards what he thinks is the most likely lynch here; townpoints for Farside, scum for Prosaurus.

TS steps it up by voting:

His play is lackluster to say the least.

How can you say my play is bad after I investigated one of the mafioso?

Clearly that's bad for you.

Gentlemen, methinks we have our second scum

VOTE: Farside

This is an awful, awful reason for a vote and is not actually based on Farside being scummy at all. This is the third vote on the wagon and looks like a scummy hop with any justification TS can think of.

Next up, TS defends Maxous:

Maxous is prob-town to myself

course at times like this I wish I had another investigation

@Quilly: any news from yourself? I want to hear from our confirmed townie

Not sure why TS would be firmly on the side of Maxous-town unless he thought he already had a mislynch lined up in Farside as well. There were ample opportunities to back the Maxous wagon and none of his play would really have prevented him from doing so.

Some Farside-TS interactions:

Questions to Rhinox:

What changed your mind from this post

I'm just slightly reluctant though. We've already outed 2 PRs today. I don't want a 3rd claim unless you guys think It's absolutely necessary that I do

Then I shall willingly do so

lol. I don't care what your claim is now. This post is scummy as hell. You're scum and I want you lynched regardless of your claim.

and this thought

ugh, I need to reread and figure out who my suspects are. Someone asked for a top 3, I don't have that right now. I'm not going to just throw names out as suspects without good reasons.

I was REALLY hoping Javert was gambiting, and we'd have an alive, confirmed town ender right now based on his reaction to being fake day-killed. As it stands, unless all of our PRs are now outed and scum have a RB and a GF, I'm suspicious of 2 1-shot cops in addition to a day vig. Think about it, if they aren't forced to claim D1, typical scenario would be they could claim results tomorrow, and they'd be 4 confirmed town. If the day vig is also town, they could take out a guilty result on D2, or the scummiest player without ending the day and progressing to night. That seems like a lot of power and a lot of cleared players potentially by day 2.

To day 2 believe TS and pushing for NE?

Maxous: I just reread TS in iso. I would like you to explain why or what about him you read as town as I don't see it.

I believe TS is scummy. I reread, and reread and I thought about it.
Here is my conclusion

Twistedspoon - 1 shot cop - comes off very scummy. His vote on NE originally was

indeed, NE has gone under the radar for too long

I'm fine with this wagon. My vote on Javert is utterly redundant anyways now that his wagon is gone and he's claimed :/

VOTE: NE

When questioned about his vote:

@TS: Again..why did you vote Neccessary Evil? Why is he mafia?

well it was mostly a pressure vote. Saying so would kinda defeat the purpose of it though. That and I haven't seen to much towness from him

After with some questions but no real push he states the following

I am convinced by the breadcrumb
Oso is still a null read to me though

NE is already my vote, so I'm cool with keeping it on him (for now at least)

I was slightly surprised when you claimed masons though. I had (wrongly)assumed all PRs were 1-shot by now :/

prosaurus and Oso are wildcards for me today. I'll give them a pass
The masons are forever unlynchable until proven otherwise
Javert gets a pass for the unlikelihood of a scum day vig in a mini normal. However I want to see him post again
NE and MW are the only remainders that i don't have town reads on. I'll live with one of their lynches today. I might later switch to him if his lynch becomes more feasible, but I'll stick with NE for the timebeing

None of this = a case. I never see a reason from TS on why he found NE scum. Rereading him I'm starting to believe scum bussing his scum buddy for town credit more and more.

vote: Twistedspoon

I believe looking at Maxous/Rhinox one of them to be scum with TS.

This push on TS comes while Farside is still the leading wagon, so I can see it being for distancing purposes. However, the question to Rhinox looks like inquisitive behaviour from a townie, and Farside's points on TS are all good ones. They'd certainly only serve to reinforce anyone's scum-read on TS, and at this stage of the wagon Farside-scum would know that any distancing is going to be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

Following on from that vote is this:

So I did some meta research on TS because I find his play the most scummy. I had to wonder if he was a VI or scum.
I noticed in his early games, which to say the least fit confusion and some seriously bad plays to later as he has played games he made cases and looked into things. So I don't believe TS is a VI reading his games.
TS: Please explain why you never made a case against NE, when I see clearly in your later games that you have made cases on people, prodded people and made points that a severely lacking in this game.

Farside further piles the pressure on TS by providing meta evidence; something that again is based on solid reasoning and just makes TS look scummier.

Prosaurus posts his PoE reasoning:

@TS

farside22

Maxous

Not as scummy.

Twistedspoon

Started NE wagon.

Duplicity

Null, not as scummy as FS

Locke Lamora

On NE wagon.

Quilford

Confirmed.

Prosaurus

That's me.

Rhinox

NE wagon.

I'd rather you asked my opinions on certain posts, or that kind of thing. You'll probably get a better response.

The total lack of actual reasoning is blatant here, which is pretty shocking considering Prosaurus has Farside as a top suspect based on this. The indication that Pro is incapable of providing his analysis in a situation like this is also increasingly grating on my nerves as I read through. I'm buying the newbie thing less and less and getting the impression that he's just not able to fake scumhunting.

Another TS-Farside interaction to look at:

I'm pretty certain TS is scum. He's gone too and posting elsewhere.

that's because I'm in other games, obv

if the only thing you have is that you don't like my vote on you and that I'm posting elsewhere then I'm still very much liking your lynch
also, I'm dead in my other mini normal so should have more time for this one. Quilly knows that already though.

Still liking my farside vote. Other players might be easier to lynch, but I don't think they're the scum. Farside lynch>lynch>no lynch

TS seems to be making the point that he's not going for the easy lynch, but Farside has been the leading wagon for much of the day so this strikes me as something of an odd point to make.

And now we have what may be the scummiest vote in the entire game:

Since nothing's happening, I'd like to vote Farside.
VOTE: farside22
That's L-1 incase no one's noticed.

I mean, really. Nothing's happening so he puts Farside at L-1? This comes after his masterful piece of PoE reasoning that I quoted above.

Duplicity states their reads near the end of the day:

@Duplicity: Have you explained why I am mafia? I don't remember it.

It's predominanly PoE combined with the fact that you were both G and I's biggest FoS when reading through the thread.

I'm going to step in here. I'm starting to get town-farside vibes. Rhinox is town. Pros is town. Quildford is town. Locke is likely town. We're lynching Twisted or Maxous today. End of, so I suggest someone moves their vote.

Setting up the Maxous-Twisted choice and ruling out Farside-scum seems like a pro-town move here. Would have been much easier to leave the Farside option open rather than argue against it.

Prosaurus makes his choice:

@Duplicity If we're lynching either of those two, I say Max. TS got scum lynched, and I don't see why he'd bus(That is scum lynching scum right?).

Prosaurus playing the newbie card again here and choosing Max over TS. Nothing too much of note in isolation, but will become relevant later on.

Duplicity again defends Farside, this time in more detail:

what has caused to to change you mind so late?

Sure, the recent town-tells I've gotten from farside include:
1. Her agreement in the fact that you're mafia, which is something I'm having difficulty shacking, ie. I don't think she'd buss you in this position.
2. Her lack of fight in preventing her lynch in this post reads as a town-tell, given the situation at the moment.
3. I read meta-research like the one shes done in this post as a town-tell.

Also, can I ask you how would scumflips from Maxous or Farside change your reads.

1. Farside scum-flip would lead me to re-read the entire game for a reassesment.
2. Maxous scum-flip would lead me to instant vote you tommorow.

actually, you've changed you maxous read too it seems from my quotes above. what has caused this?

As I previously stated it's mostly PoE related.

I'll try and get some reads up

Yes. Please. Do. This.

Again, this is pro-town, solid reasoning and seems genuine.

interesting post from TS here stating multiple reads:

hmm your farside town tells do seem somewhat genuine...

I'm having difficult imaginging Rhinox scum
and Unless prosaurus pulled of a very clever newb-town bluff with the daytalk thing, i don't see him flipping scu
Quilly is confirmed town
Locke is behaving townie enough, I have a better town read on him that I did EA. The slot is probably town. scum wouldn't tunnel as blantantly as EA did anyways I don't think
Which leaves me with Duplicity, Farside and Maxous. i remember Juls suspected maxous D1. without going into too much wifom, this could affect my read.

does anyone object if I try some VCA?

Apparently he buys Duplicity's towntells, but not enough to unvote Farside. The Prosaurus daytalk saga takes another twist as he suggests it is very much unlikely that Prosaurus is scum unless his daytalk slip was a 'clever newb-town bluff'. What? Earlier in the day TS was pushing Pro-scum because he thought he might have slipped about daytalk. Now he doesn't think he's scum unless it was a clever, deliberately planned gambit? The fact that TS feels the need to qualify this read with something that isn't true in the first place really pings my scumdar. He has an opportunity to clear Pro based on what others have said about the daytalk comment but he puts in a bizarre caveat that he doesn't even believe.

On to Day 4:

TS opens out the day by returning to his Prosaurus suspicion:

Rhinox dying over Quilford increases my FoS towards Twistedspoon for the sole purpose of Quilfords strong defence of Twistedspoon, given how yesterday played out I see Rhinox reconisdering his reads entirely because they all were based around Maxous-scum whereas Quilford seemed to believe that Twisted was town regardless of anyone elses allignment or flip.

but why Rhinox? Surely this could apply to anyone but Quilford? I don't really see what you're saying here. anyone but a quilford kill made me scummy? Surely even If I were scum I'd have still killed quilly as he is unlynchable. Please explain

anyways, the last point I would like to raise is my suspicion of prosaurus. I entirely expected quilly to die tonight, however I think Prosaurus is the player who, due to the least experience, would most likely leave a confirmed townie alive. I don't know, but I'll tell you I'll never forgive you all if prosaurus turns out to be scum after all this time, especially after his daytalk slip which could either be a genuine slip or a scum newb-town gambit

@mod

: was Locke still V/LA during the night phase?

What's getting me about this is that by this point, nobody wants to lynch Prosaurus. Quilford clearly doesn't, Duplicity has a strong townread on him and Farside and myself are both leaning town on Pro at this point. So why is TS coming out and making a point of his Prosaurus suspicion when he said he doesn't see him flipping scum as recently as the end of D3? I think he's making a point because he's distancing again. TS-scum is apparently obsessed with this as a scum tactic, and there's absolutely no logical reason for him to push a Prosaurus lynch as a mislynch. It would be much more sensible to push a Farside or me lynch because he'd actually get some traction with those. This looks to me like he's very blatantly trying to say 'hey guys, I suspect Prosaurus!'. There's only one reason to do that.

Couple more nonsense posts about Prosaurus which reinforce my above point. TS actually manages to change his line of attack during these:

Unless you think the scumteam are both inexperienced, in which case you're pointing the finger at yourself.

I'm an IC

srsly though, I can't explain why quilly wasn't killed. However I'm still suspicious of prosaurus for that day-talk thing. You've sorta proved my point in a way that everyone but prosaurus is experienced, and so I wouldn't be surprised if they instructed prosaurus to do that daytalk slip thing to look more like newb town who don't understand how scum play and cannot possibly be scum

okay...
maybe I hadn't thought of the doctor-Quilford thing

anyways, I'd still like to bring up the Prosaurus-daytalk evidence again. I'm not willing to give him a free pass today and I'm hoping you're not going to too

also, Locke, are you claiming or not then? The majority of us seem to be in favour

A Prosaurus response to a question of mine:

@LL If I changed my suspicions because of the NK it would be to you and FS because Rhinox didn't really expect anyone else for a scumteam. I already had suspicions of you and FS.

Prosaurus admits that he's thought about who Rhinox was suspecting and what the NK implies. Given that Prosaurus has been acting like he hasn't thought about much this game, the fact that he instantly knows Rhinox's suspects and where they might lead suspicions suggests to me that this isn't the first time he's thought about it.

OK, I'm out of time for tonight, but I have the rest of the quotes saved and I'll finish this up tomorrow.

[Duplicity]

Uh, consider it cold feet or last minute uncertaintly but I need to read into LL's wall more before I want G to place a vote now.

Mod, is there any chance we can get a 24 hour extention so I have sufficent time to read through this after my Law final exam?

[neil1113]

Mod, is there any chance we can get a 24 hour extention so I have sufficent time to read through this after my Law final exam?

Unfortunately I don't believe that'd be fair to the others in the game if I granted this extension. So no.

[Prosaurus]

A Prosaurus response to a question of mine:

@LL If I changed my suspicions because of the NK it would be to you and FS because Rhinox didn't really expect anyone else for a scumteam. I already had suspicions of you and FS.

Prosaurus admits that he's thought about who Rhinox was suspecting and what the NK implies. Given that Prosaurus has been acting like he hasn't thought about much this game, the fact that he instantly knows Rhinox's suspects and where they might lead suspicions suggests to me that this isn't the first time he's thought about it.

OK, I'm out of time for tonight, but I have the rest of the quotes saved and I'll finish this up tomorrow.

No, when you asked I just looked at his Iso to see who he was suspecting.

[Locke Lamora]

Pro, can you tell me why you've played differently in this game to your recently completed Newbie, which you have been playing at the same time?

[Duplicity]

I am way late on this but here's why I think Locke's slot is scum based on EA's interactions with TS and NE:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 9#p2930039

NE's first serious vote in the game is a soft defense of EA, where he votes Oso for his early case on EA. He also adds the statement "Any suspicion regarding that vote depends on EA being scum, and it's too early to tell that especially since Oso's case on EA is so weak." To me this reads as him denying the possibility that anyone should think his teammate is scum that early in the game.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2933454
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2934281

Oso drops his vote on Erratus Apathos in post #124. NE's next content post is #151, where he hops his vote over to the rapidly growing ender wagon. ender was obviously a target of opportunity, but it looks like NE stops attacking Oso once he stops putting pressure on his teammate.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2934764
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2935932
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p2937430
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2938647
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2939317

#156 by EA is where he votes NE, but it's a very weak vote. He "suspects" NE was "looking for a reason to jump on the Ender wagon". NE's response in #159 is meek, tells EA he "misunderstands" his reasoning. Exchange continues with #188, #192, and concludes with #200. The whole thing looks like weak distancing overall. Compare EA's tone here with his tone when addressing his other suspicions, and you can see how soft he was being on NE and how quickly he backed down.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2948927
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2973691

After ender's claim on page 9, TS and NE start hard-bussing each other, and EA jumps on pushing TS. In #308 he says he doesn't care about TS's claim and he still believes he's scum, even after everyone else has moved on because of his claim - it gives me the feeling that he was working with inside information. At the same time, he hops off to push lynching klazam or oso more, and TS barely argues with him. The most he interacts with him is to comment of EA's hammer of M=W in #546, but even then he doesn't directly attack him for hammering without a claim.

Knowing now that the lynch day 2 was between two scum, I see no reason their teammate would be cautious with their vote, as prosaurus was - they know that they'll look good on whatever wagon the lynch is, and EA flips freely from TS to NE in the middle of the day. Neither TS nor NE directly argue with EA on day 2, as shown by a skim from page 23 onward.


That's the major part of why I believe LL's slot to be scum off d1/d2, I can go into why I think pros is town but it's really late right now. Apologies if the formatting is messy.