OPEN 310 - Medical Mafia - TOWN WIN

[Amrun]

GOOD POINT WELL MADE

But seriously, the people who come out looking the worst from jilscum are:

Tim, HelloNewman, Morotorium (the latter by lack of mention)

There is a big gap between each one.

Tim is independently scummy: HN is confirmed town unless countrclaim happens; Moratorium has earned an independent townread from me.

Of course, jil could have been good at planting wifom seeds, and if time isn't scum, we'll try a new tactic tomorrow. However, I would have rather lynched tim yesterday anyway.

[Hoppster]

a) No Action at night (to make it 5:1 mountainous)

I'm not sure whether that's town favoured or not.

I actually suspect it may be scum-favoured, but thought I'd put it out there.

No, this assumes no-lynch today.

Meh, not really.

If we all decide right now to not use our Night Actions, it is effectively Mountainous as of when we decide we won't use our Night Actions even if we haven't lynched at that point, because if we all traded in our Role PMs for VTs then nothing would change.

b) All collectively agree DURING THE DAY on a scummy player that we ALL TARGET at night.

I'll elaborate on B later today (but probably not for a good 8+ hours) as I'm off on a day trip to Sheffield today and it's something I'd much prefer to type on a computer keyboard over a phone keyboard. (You may get it earlier if I get really bored.)

I'm skeptical, but I'd need to see your elaboration, I'm concerned that there might be situations where all this does is protect the scummy target while allowing him to fulfill his nightkill.

Okay.

I thought about it, and the plan is significantly less awesome and is comparably easier to manipulate for scum if I reveal my logic.

It's still an okay plan if I do reveal my logic (and if people really want me to, I will) but the revealing of my logic shows (competent) scum how to manipulate the situation (having said that, even then it's still fairly difficult for them to accurately manipulate).

I will say that the plan has the potential to get very,

very

WIFOMy.

(Thinking about it now, the plan doesn't seem as awesome as I thought it was when I first thought of it.)



I am happy with a tim_hill lynch today.

No lynch until we've decided on a gameplan for tonight (assuming we don't win today of course).

[AntB]

VOTE COUNT - 6 Alive - 4 to Lynch

tim_hill1990

<- Quilford - Amrun

Not Voting

< - tim_hill1990 - Hoppster - HellloooNewman - Moratoriumm

V/LA

tim_hill1990 - Monday || Moratorium - Sunday

DEADLINE

FRIDAY 8 JULY 2011 23:59:59 UTC

(expired on 2011-07-08 19:59:59) remaining.

[HellloooNewman]

Are we quite sure Jill would bus? Effectively? Admittedly, she is a rookie scummer. I get the feeling she would have buddied or ignored her scummate, instead of bussing. Anyone else see it that way?

[Amrun]

Well, it was a big wad of fencesitting.

She never provided me her scum meta that I asked for. I'll go find it and see if she bussed.

But as I said, I wanted to lynch tim anyway before jil flipped.

[Amrun]

In this game that I am pulling a quote from: Jily was scum, Toro was herr scumbuddy, and muffin was town.

I'm going to have to say that Muffin is leaning towards scum the most. Toro may be leaning scum but not that much. I say let's lynch Muffin first. Lowkey...is also confusing me. I'm not sure if he's scum or not, but if I had to choose three people to lynch, there you have it. One thing I need to put out there, is that I'm not trying to defend Toro and please correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt scum would be that careless. Another thing is that, his precessor seemed to be a townie.

Could I get a votecount?

If Muffin's scum, I'll probably believe that Lowkey's a helpful townie...but if he isn't, I'm going to start questioning some judgement.

For the people I think are most likely town, I'm going to say that popsofctown is leaning town, because of how helpful he is. It wouldn't make sense for him to try to be too helpful if he was scum. Also, I don't always agree with DietyKabuto, but most likely, she's town.

Yeah, tim dies today.

[HellloooNewman]

Good catch Amrun.

Vote - TimHill

[Amrun]

Unvote

We have stuff to work out first.

[HellloooNewman]

LOL it's not like he was L1 or anything.

[Hoppster]

LOL it's not like he was L1 or anything.

Not sure if serious?

[Amrun]

...

Lol

[HellloooNewman]

*insert 'Price is Right' losing horn sound effect*

I miscounted. Thought he was @ L2 with my vote. FML.

[Amrun]

It's not a lynch so it's all good.

[Hoppster]

tim_hill has declared V/LA in another game.



*twiddles thumbs*

Okay.

I thought about it, and the plan is significantly less awesome and is comparably easier to manipulate for scum if I reveal my logic.

^ Doesn't anybody care about this?

[HellloooNewman]

Not really. I think we all believe that we will lynch the final scum (Tim) and win the game, rendering the point moot.

[Moratorium]

Not really. I think we all believe that we will lynch the final scum (Tim) and win the game, rendering the point moot.

Wow... so you don't even want to have a discussion about this, huh?

[Moratorium]

Is anyone here good with critical thinking? Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens and all that stuff from college? Because I get the feeling we can deduce a few things a few things by using truth tables and inference rules, but I've never been very good at classical logic (took one class in first year like.... 13 years ago)

[Moratorium]

a few things a few things a few things

[tim_hill1990]

Okay, that is helpful.

FIRST:

DID EVERYONE FOLLOW THE HYPODOCING PLAN

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT

Yes, protected Iceguy

Everybody needs to makr a post in which they either CC Newman or don't.

No Counter claim

I believe we're at 5:1 now. I'm thinking we should now either:

a) No Action at night (to make it 5:1 mountainous)

I'm not sure whether that's town favoured or not.

I actually suspect it may be scum-favoured, but thought I'd put it out there.

I like this option more, because any more hypodocing from now could end in a loss tonight, I also think that barring a counterclaim for HN, you and him are pretty much confirmed town. This narrows the options down.

For reference. Her "why are we lynching Tim" posts and her null read on him is enough to

Distancing from what she probably thought was a building wagon? Better than jumping on a wagon she knew would end in disaster.

Honestly, these posts are enough to lynch tim, imho.

Really, just a few posts? I think this is going to end much like the DK lynch did, I don't like how you are jumping on the easy wagons.

and if time isn't scum, we'll try a new tactic tomorrow. However, I would have rather lynched tim yesterday anyway.

Ok two things: seems like you just want to get rid of me, and secondly why did you vote DK if you'd rather I had been lynched? Seems almost like you knew DK was going to flip town, same way you also know I will.
Try a new tactic tomorrow? Again, clearly not interested in actually finding scum, just keen to head for a lynch.

In this game that I am pulling a quote from: Jily was scum, Toro was herr scumbuddy, and muffin was town.

Isn't Jilly new to this game? In which case how can you truly get an accurate read from her meta?
What someone does in one game isn't indicative of what they do all the time. I'm relatively new and i've changed my way of playing many times, different strategies and game plans etc...
How is meta analysis working out for you anyway?

Not really. I think we all believe that we will lynch the final scum (Tim) and win the game, rendering the point moot.

No back up plan first? Really?? That's a sure fire way to lose this game.

Ok so considering the reactions to that day so far>
Hoppster> Town
Amrun> leaning scum
HN> barring a counter claim Town but don't like the attempt at quicklynch without a plan in place first
Moratorium> I get a town read
Quilford> Picked out the DK mislynch early, so this renders him town imo, could be scum trying to gain town cred on a dumb lynch but it didn't seem that way to me.

-Day one I had Amrun down as town but her determination to lynch me without really consdering things first doesn't bode well, plus the fact that her vote on DK clearly had nothing to do with actually finding scum.
- Other option I would consider is Quilford, but I just get a gut townie read from him more than anything.
-HN>playing almost anti-town I would say, but probably not scum.

[Amrun]

I thought you didn't want to discuss your plan.

Not everyone has even posted yet: tim could CC HN (though I doubt it).

Personally, I don't see the point of the plan. I probably prefer mountainous to that. Might be safer.

P-edit: if you were actually town, tim, you would know that DK claimed scum because he's an idiot.

I have given plenty of analysis on why I think you are scum - an excessive amount, in fact.

[tim_hill1990]

if you were actually town, tim, you would know that DK claimed scum because he's an idiot.

I have given plenty of analysis on why I think you are scum - an excessive amount, in fact.

-He didn't claim scum.

-Excessive? obviously not considering not everyone wants to lynch me, I think you are either:
a) Town> Got it in your head that I am scum and can't shake the read
b) Scum> pushing what you think is an easy lynch, with reasons which you think are satisfactory for the rest of the team. This I think is more likely at the moment, much the same way you sheeped the DK lynch, not because you actually thought he was scum.

[Quilford]

I too am getting a scumread from Amrun.

Also we know Tim isn't a quack/CPR doc or a paranoid (roleblocking) doc

[Hoppster]

I thought you didn't want to discuss your plan.

Well, no. But I thought people would either be discussing whether to actually follow my secret plan or perhaps trying to get me to reveal it. I didn't expect nobody to care at all about it.

I too am getting a scumread from Amrun.

You're still voting tim_hill.


Moratorium: Is there any reason you ignored my super-awesome post yesterday?

Spoiler: Super Awesome Post

You know...alot of things feel genuine. Isn't that what scum are best at?

...Poor nurse. This sucks, because scum can easily say their the nurse, but the real nurse will have a hard time. I highly suggest the genuine nurse to just hang back. (Like, not lurking, but don't say anything that makes it obvious you're the nurse.)

This post is scum trying to seem like they're helping.

Everybody needs to join the cool-jilynne-wagon.

DK, shut up, because you're distracting the town from lynching scum.

If you all ignore DK for a moment I'm sure you'll all realise how obvscum jilynne is.

I'm *always* hesitant to throw down votes.

Something I've noticed though, is that when people challenge me to vote them, their usually town, since scum doesn't want people to vote them.

Give me a few minutes and I'll try to write a case on you.

^ Fence-sitting scum

Ok, why not, let's lynch DK. He's not making sense, he's pointing random fingers at random people, and he's detrimental to the town.

That's reason enough to vote him:

Vote: DeityKabuto

^ Scum jumping on an easy bandwagon, contradicting their reason for fence-sitting earlier in the process.

With vote-hesitant town, I'm verrrry sceptical that they would be persuaded to vote for somebody simply on the basis of "OH THIS GUY IS ANNOYING".

With 'vote-hesitant' scum, of course, they can easily forget about their previous hesitation to vote.

Town who are "hesitant to throw down votes" do NOT vote with the attiute of "herpa derpa let's vote DK, I mean, why not?"

Although I have no College-level knowledge of Critical Thinking, I am fairly certain it is difficult if not impossible to deduce anything that is not overly complicated or overly obvious.

Spoiler: Conclusions from NKs (simple)

• Amrun
  
• HellloooNewman
  
• tim_hill1990
  
• DeityKabuto
  
  
• IceGuy
  
  
• jilynne1991
  
  
• Mortatorium
  
• Hoppster
  
• Quilford

IceGuy was CPR or Quack.
tim_hill is not Paranoid (but contrary to what Quilford says could still be CPR or Quack).

Moratorium is not CPR or Quack.


As for there being 2 NKs out of the 3 potential NKs (and a 4th potential Weak Doc death), this means that any of the following could have occurred:

1. Scum NK target was same as one of the targets for CPR Doc or Quack Doc
   
2. Scum NK was target same as target of Normal Doc or Paranoid Doc
   
3. Scum carrying out the NK was targeted by Paranoid Doc

1. Weak Doc targeted town
   
2. Weak Doc was targeted by Paranoid Doc (and may have been targeting scum or town)

Spoiler: Conclusions from NKs (complicated)

Key

Sanity* is shorthand for Sanity (with the player above being a Paranoid Doctor [who thusly RB'd the player]).

tim_hill

Could be Mafia, Normal, Weak, CPR*, Quack*, Naive.

If Mafia, Newman could be Normal, Weak*, CPR*, Quack* or Naive.
If Normal, Newman could be Mafia, Weak, CPR*, Quack* or Naive.
If Weak, Newman could be Mafia, Normal, CPR*, Quack* or Naive.
If CPR, Newman is Paranoid.
If Quack, Newman is Paranoid.
If Naive, Newman could be Mafia, Normal, Weak, CPR* or Quack*.

[Hoppster]

DAMNIT

Pressed submit instead of preview.

Disregard the last spoiler (which is still under construction).

[Quilford]

UNVOTE:
Conflicting reads on Tim.