Mini 1193: Hacker's Panic mafia. (Game Over)

[deselby]

/confirm

[deselby]

@coolskins, I am a noob, I have played 1 newbie game. I will try not to damage your sanity too much.

[deselby]

like
seriously

what

vote: Hrezs

Lack of punctuation.

[deselby]

@coolskins, a newbish question, why a hydra? Is it a two-heads-are-better-than-one kind of thing? Or individually, you are not online that much?

[deselby]

I don't know if they are scum or not and I am not scum so if skins flips town, that will prove to be one of the most stupidist comment made thus far, but seeing it came from the person who has the wagon on them, i don't hold much water to it.

If you don't "hold much water" to a comment by someone with a wagon, why did you wagon them?
Also, I didn't like your comment about being bored and nearly leaving the game never to return.
Although not scummy I guess, your defence of your own sense of humour is a bit weird....
I do, however, agree somewhat with you about parama's percentages.....

@parama, why the certainty so early on?

[deselby]

@desel, I didn't wagon him cause of the comment, that comment came after my vote. My vote accomplished exactly what I wanted it to. Discussions. It also gave me more than what I was hoping for, reactions.

Not quite what i meant. You say youwagonned parama to see reactions, then you disregard ("don't hold water to") his reaction, saying, in essence, that because he had a wagon, his reactions are not useful.

[deselby]

So, a litlle bit more patience today, everyone?

[deselby]

@celebloki- I agree with your reasons for the lynch, but the hammer was very early. We still had a lot of time to learn stuff and get reads on all players, so the quick lynch couldn't be good for town. Do you disagree? (not that you were the only bloodthirsty player...)

@bobsnox, why the FOS on me, if I may ask?

[deselby]

Coolskins said something about not wanting to play with newbies. Deselby claimed to be a newbie. Coolskins said I'm looking forward to playing with you. I would quote but it's hard with the phone. Seems to me like Coolskins and deselby had time to get acquainted in scumchat before the game.

Today's challenge: can anyone provide an accusation based on less evidence than this? You have provided no evidence whatsoever against either of us, other than the laughable claim quoted above, and the fact that parama said coolskins is scum. Do you think I am not a newbie? Why? Also, if we chatted pre game, why would we repeat it here?

In fact there is a more of a link between you and parama, see post 76 & 176. I point this out not because it means anyhting, but it just shows how utterly baseless your accusation is.

Town aim to lynch on evidence, scum just aim to lynch. Unless you have something else to add which makes sense:

vote bobsnox

[deselby]

@xvart and kondi
reading back, your contributions to this game so far:
1)hopping on the beck wagon
2)lurking

comments?

[deselby]

I don't like deselby's reaction to my Coolskins vote

why not?

[deselby]

Des' reaction found here:

Coolskins said something about not wanting to play with newbies. Deselby claimed to be a newbie. Coolskins said I'm looking forward to playing with you. I would quote but it's hard with the phone. Seems to me like Coolskins and deselby had time to get acquainted in scumchat before the game.

Today's challenge: can anyone provide an accusation based on less evidence than this? You have provided no evidence whatsoever against either of us, other than the laughable claim quoted above, and the fact that parama said coolskins is scum. Do you think I am not a newbie? Why? Also, if we chatted pre game, why would we repeat it here?

In fact there is a more of a link between you and parama, see post 76 & 176. I point this out not because it means anyhting, but it just shows how utterly baseless your accusation is.

Town aim to lynch on evidence, scum just aim to lynch. Unless you have something else to add which makes sense:

vote bobsnox

Firs thing that strikes me is how quick he is to react to it. Second thing that strikes me is that he doesn't have a vote on him. He seems to be afraid of a possible lynch on him, and that explains his reactionary play. Interesting that he does not make much comment about the beck wagon at all in both days...

@del, reads?

First thing - why is the speed of my reply important? For the record, my post was 100mins after bobsnox's.
Second- having a vote on me or not is irrelevant here. I was reacting to the lack of reason by bobsnox.
Third - Much of the beck wagon, including the claim and hammer happened while I was offline. My thoughts: Beck was scummy, particularly his play post claim. But a hammer so early generally is not good for town. Was there scum on the wagon? Good chance, but he appeared so scummy i think everyone had some suspicion.

Anyway, here are my reads:



bobsnox, scummy for reasons I stated when I voted.

celebloki, suspicious cos of early hammer, otherwise has not said much.

coolskins, leaning town, most of his reasoning seems sound to me.

donjohnson/xvart: thought xvart was suspect earlier as he had only really hopped on the beck wagon and lurked. His claim post however seemed townish, it was very detailed and makes good points. If xvart is town and his post is accurate, then donjohnson behaved strangley. I think there is a good chance one of thm is scum and one town, the scum more likely don.

haschel: hasn't contributed much. Said he has "plenty to say", but hasn't said it yet. Done little to look town so far.

hrezs: pretty much lurked completely, not townish play obvioulsy

kondi: sum total of contribution: 1) got on beck wagon 2)lurked. Suspect.

parama: struggling to get a read tbh. Seems very confident, and has done a couple of strange things (vote on hrezs for eg.). Is this just his style? He seems to have done some scumhunting though. Don't know what to make of him.

zodiark; need to hear more, far too little content to be considered town.

[deselby]

Very very jumpy. Smacked of paranoia. Barely concealed OMGUS. Weak target for weak reasons.

Etc

I attacked you simply because you used ludicrous "evidence" for an assertion.

"weak reasons"?! Do you really think your reason was stronger?

[deselby]

It was also ridiculously dismissive and bordered on a strawman with your irrelevant questions.

The QT part in particular struck me as garbage.

Are you going to answer who your other suspects are?

Dismissive? Should it not have been?

My questions were an attempt to find out what you were thinking, if anything. i still can't say that I know.

[deselby]

So what you're telling me is you dismissed something you didn't understand? That's all that can be inferred from your posts at this point. That might as well be a scum confession.

Very very jumpy. Smacked of paranoia. Barely concealed OMGUS. Weak target for weak reasons.

Etc

I attacked you simply because you used ludicrous "evidence" for an assertion.

"weak reasons"?! Do you really think your reason was stronger?

Yes, all you have done is dismiss me WITHOUT (apparently) understanding my point. There's a huge difference between not seeing reasoning in my posts (which is clearly there) and thinking that reasoning is weak. You can't seem to take a stance on which it is. That's incredibly weak reasoning on your part to not only vote me but have me as your number one suspect at this point.

UNVOTE: Celebloki
VOTE: deselby

You have condemned yourself:

Town aim to lynch on evidence, scum just aim to lynch.

Ok, this is a bit on an OMGUS-a-thon, so I will try to state my case in a nutshell:

You misrepresent me in the above post. My reasoning can be seen from the post in which I voted you. I voted you because you made an accusation of a scum team based on nothing more than a pregame greeting. Farcically weak IMO. I said my vote would stand unless you provided more or better reasoning. You did not. The only thing it seems I don't understand is why you still maintain there is something in your original claim. If this remains the case, I will consider your accusation scummy. My vote will change if this situation changes or someone else becomes scummier.

[deselby]

Coolskins said something about not wanting to play with newbies. Deselby claimed to be a newbie. Coolskins said I'm looking forward to playing with you. I would quote but it's hard with the phone. Seems to me like Coolskins and deselby had time to get acquainted in scumchat before the game.

This is your orignial claim. Pretty pitiful "something".

[deselby]

I can't believe you took the trouble to quote that only to dismiss it again. How about trying something different for a change?

OK, decent call. I am happy that my post 2 posts ago contains what I have to say, and I stand by it. I will leave it at that for now unless/until you (or anyone else) have anything else to say about it.


There are a lot of players who have posted very little so far, who need to contribute.

[deselby]

Fine. I hereby swear that I had never communicated in any way whatsoever with coolskins prior to this game thread.
You are misrepresenting me again. This is the second time, the first rather crafty (215) the second more blatant. I have never implied that the possibilty of my involvement in pregame scumchat is "ludicrous" or "ridiculous". What I objected to is the mega-scant evidence you used to reach this conclusion. Didn't think I would have to explain that. Any third party thoughts on the misrep's?
I was a little wary of my tunneling in fact, hence post 220. I didn't want our debate to continue in circles while ignoring everyone else.
As for my "bad" reads, well, your opinion, feel free to give your own reads where applicable.

One question, what makes you a good mislynch?

[deselby]

Shit bob, last 15 posts and 12 hours or so were all ours. I am going to bed, maybe we should let some other guys play?

[deselby]

Beck had every reason to tell you guys to fuck yourselves; he knew 100% that he couldn't trust the groups' judgment. I would have either done the same thing, or maybe said "I will kill (SPECIFIC PLAYER) tonight.

While I agree with you in general about the quick lynch, I should say that IF Beck had said "I will kill a specific player", he may still have been with us. His "fuck you all" post, to me at least, seemed like he had made up his claim, and couldn't follow through with it.
Having said that, so quick a lynch is usually not pro-town. Although celeb's defence of his hammer wasn't particularly scummy, the speed of the lynch meant there wasn't much detail to defend. Don't know how much more we can get out of it, but suspicion will remain on celeb for the hammer.

Kondi's behaviour was scummy, no doubt. We all wanted more posting that never came. Antihero hasn't done anything to look town, voting for Hrezs without giving a reason. I know Anti has only 2 posts, but I am close to swithcing my vote- if antihero doesn't start behaving town, my vote goes there.

[deselby]

Should update my thoughts on xvart/don neighbourness. I was suspicious of don after xvarts post re QT etc, but Dons explanation of events seems plausible. One thing though:

ok. recieved info back from mod. will explain in detail after xvart answers one question. mod said i could discuss the issue without quoting and that he would neither confirm nor deny anything. so depending on the answer, i should be able to confirm xvart as town or scum regardless of todays outcome.

xvart: please look at your role pm carefully and tell me if there is anything "wrong" with it?

I may be missing something here, but why would this question confirm xvart's alignment either way?

[deselby]

Sound reasoning in my opinion for jumping on the bob wagon. Bob is a bit wishy washy.

Basically all zodiark has done is vote for the person that hammered yesterday. And built up a small case on bob for swingy on and off of wagons. He hasn't generated that much content, but he has said anything that is overtly scummy.

My vote stays on don for now. I would also be willing to lynch parama... Bub will post tonight or I will kick his ass.

The first part I could agree with, after all celeb actually posted twice between zodiarks 2 offending posts, giving enough to, in theory, cause someone to change votes,

However it is the contradiction that is the scummy part, which you seem to have ignored.

Zodiark, address this please.

[deselby]

sorry, slightly mad weekend, will post tomorrow (australia time)

[deselby]

ok. recieved info back from mod. will explain in detail after xvart answers one question. mod said i could discuss the issue without quoting and that he would neither confirm nor deny anything.

so depending on the answer, i should be able to confirm xvart as town or scum regardless of todays outcome.

xvart: please look at your role pm carefully and tell me if there is anything "wrong" with it?


reread post incoming.

don, from earlier, can you explain how this question would confirm xvart either way.

Bob: hresz is going out of his way to distance himself from the wagon. I see only two reasons for him to do so. 1 he is scum and knows zod is town. 2 he is scum with zod and is planning on using the "why would I have defended my buddy so obviously?" Defense. Either way I see no town motivation for his actions.

Or I'm town who thinks he's town?

I know, its a crazy idea to defend town reads, but you should try it sometime.

So you believe zodiark is town? It is one thing to think his contradiction is not voteworthy, but it seems to me a bit of a stretch to label him town at this point. Also, you said earlier:

I don't understand the zodiark wagon. Nothing he's done has struck me as scum.

Not saying I read him as town

, but I don't see the case against him.

Which is it?

[deselby]

des: i have explained it the best i can already. i'd rather cover it after the game. between my discussions with the mod and xvarts play i am writing it off as a mistake and i am not going to let it interfere with the game. if xvart is town, the speculation would be disastrous for town and take us away from traditional scumhunting. i'd like to avoid that at this point.

ok, am willing to wait. Curious though....

[deselby]

deselby - why are you still voting me?

Well, bobs, that is a fair question. I voted for you because I thought you were the scummiest player, but your question made me think - are you still the scummiest? So i have reviewd things
So, I have already made a case against you. Adding to that your propensity to post (and sometmes vote) without giving much or any reason, and your seeming certainty at various times that at least 7 players (including beck) here are scum:

I agree about Don. If Beck weren't so scummy I would vote Don right now.

Parama - I think Coolskins and deselby are buddies.

You know what, I'm good with a cele lynch after reviewing his case again.

UNVOTE: Coolskins

VOTE: Celeboki

Celebloki, deselby, don johnson - good lynches today.

UNVOTE: deselby
VOTE: Zodiark

lol

I think Parama is right.

UNVOTE: Zodiark
VOTE: Hrezs

Now, I didn't want to make the biggest post in history, so I only showed edited version sof your posts. I listed the above not to discuss the merits of your reasoning (which I believe have been inconsistent- for eg zodiark good, me bad), but to point out that you seem to condemn people as scum too easily for my liking.

However, I must concede that you now have some competition for scummiest.

Zodiark's contradiction was scummy, and his defence of it, while he makes the occasional ok point, is, overall, not that convincing, in particular his slowness to recognise the contradiciton as scummy. Is zodiark more scummy than bobs? Not much in it IMO, but bobs by a nose.

And then there is Hrezs. His total contribution is:

votes parama fo a silly reason, without even really reading the thread.
makes passable point about kondi, then votes bob for a stupid reason (regarding his beck vote)
the "i find it hilarious..." post
halfhearted defence against parama, ends up very close to accusing parama of being scum, but doesn't vote for him.
doesn't "understand" the contradiciton im zodiarks post, and believes zodiark is town.

I didn't re-post hrezs posts, cos this is already relly long, and besides, there are only 11 Hrezs posts to read through, should anyone want to do so.

So to answer your original question bobs, I think you are pretty scummy, but I am not going to keep my vote on you when there is a better candidate.

unvote: bobsnox

vote: hrezs

[deselby]

Bob: hresz is going out of his way to distance himself from the wagon. I see only two reasons for him to do so. 1 he is scum and knows zod is town. 2 he is scum with zod and is planning on using the "why would I have defended my buddy so obviously?" Defense. Either way I see no town motivation for his actions.

Or I'm town who thinks he's town?

I know, its a crazy idea to defend town reads, but you should try it sometime.

So you believe zodiark is town? It is one thing to think his contradiction is not voteworthy, but it seems to me a bit of a stretch to label him town at this point. Also, you said earlier:

My most recent post (the one that you failed to quote and read)

I don't see zodiark being that careless as scum. I read it as him not having his head in the game and trying to get his feet wet as town.

I thought about it more, and I had a town feel from him earlier

Firstly, you are wrong. The "most recent post" that you refer to was posted BEFORE the post I quoted.
Secondly, I did read it, and your addendum here adds little. The point I was making, and my question to you stand.

[deselby]

halfhearted defence against parama, ends up very close to accusing parama of being scum, but doesn't vote for him.

I have never once defended parama
and if you think I almost called zodiark scum I want to see the post

Gotta go, so i will assume this double calamity requires no further comment

[deselby]

Got a busy day gotta go will post next 24hrs or so.

[deselby]

Bobs was a big suspect of mine yesterday, but his claim (pretty much a claim) means I am not voting bobs.
Zodiark is scummy, and now my no.1 suspect. I am not voting him yet however as I don't want to put him at L-1 so early in the day, with 2 replacements yet to post. I am wary that we may allow a scum or 2 to lurk through 3 entire days....

Welcome havingfitz, look forward to hearing your thoughts.

[deselby]

That possibly sounded a bit more accusatory than I meant it to...

[deselby]

I'm all for lynching one of the replacements. I have a hunch the Celebloki kill was random, which means scum went awol and the mod had to pick someone to kill for them.

I agree the celeb kill was unexpected. If it was a mod-random kill, what do you think it means re zodiark? I think it would be less likely zodiark is scum. Of course we can't actually know about the kill for sure, zod remains a good lynch, but we should certainly wait to hear a decent amount from the replacements before lynching tiday.

[deselby]

Pretty stagnant today......

@don, what do you think of bob now his claim is public?
@zodiark, what do you think of the claim, you have voted for him after all.
@xvart, where are you?

@mod any news on the other replacement?

What do people think of the HC slot? Generally I thought his posting was reasonable, but if the random celeb kill is a possibilty, what about a HC-kondi scumteam? I noticed HC was scathing of the Beck lynch, (including bobs, parama and celeb) but didn't mention kondi who put beck at L-1 without giving reasons.......

Am I reaching? probably....but hey, not much else going on at the moment.....

[deselby]

I don't have evidence to clear anyone. I haven't even tried to clear anyone.

Ok screw it. You try to clear a guy and he rages on you.

This, indisputably, is a contradiction. Less scummy than zodiarks, as it is a rather throwaway line.

Firstly, Zodiark pounced on it. @Zod, do you really think this contradiction is scummier than yours?

Secondly, I did not like the way both parama and bobs state that the above is not a contradiction, just "bad wording".

Nice try Zodiark, but that's not a contradiction. bobsnox is just bad at words or something.

jumping all over a miswording is pretty bad play.

Also bobs,

xvart - no I would not have claimed. But I had already made it obvious what I was by semi-clearing Parama. I was VERY against his lynching and I said there was a REASON I was "buddying up" to him. I thought I would be dead last night really. Actually, if Parama was scum I think he would've killed me last night too. So I'm even more sure he's town at this point.

Not sure about this. If parama is scum, I think he would want you alive, as your posts suggested you thought he was probably town.


@havignfitz, why are you voting parama over zodiark? You have barely mentioned zodiark as yet.

[deselby]

Three people are still alive who were on both the Beck and Hrezs mislynches: bobsnox, Parama and xvart. I've changed my mind about bobsnox and am leaning town on him. That leaves me with parama and xvart out of the three common mislynchers. With three scum in this game (unless anyone thinks otherwise) I am banking on at least one scum in that group of three. After my skim through read I find Parama more suspect than xvart (subject to change) so he gets my vote. I haven't mentioned most of the players...Zodiark did not stand out in my read. I'm not confident that either of the L-2 wagons are scum.

Interesting that zodiark doesn't stand out, but people who were on wagons that both seemed to me pretty scummy at the time are your targets. Are you honestly saying that you did not think beck and hrezs acted scummy?


I can see why there is suspicion around of the bobs-parama mutual fan club. However, I think the bobs claim would have been risky as scum, and I can buy some of the confusion arising from bobs clumsiness. I can see parama as scum, but Zodiark and the kondi-ah-hf slot are definitely preferable lynches IMO.

@parama - I havent voted until now because I at least wanted to hear from the 2 replacements. However, with the wagon building elsewhere in spite of zodiark's scumminess:

vote: zodiark. THIS IS L-1

fos: havingfitz

[deselby]

Don, kind of see where you are coming from re my vote post, not one of my clearest efforts (late night post). The simple message I meant to convey was:

we should lynch the very scummy zodiark (or even hf) before parama or bobs.

Zod's contribution: contradiction+ wagon hopping, attacking his attackers, nothin else.


anyway, disagree with this:

not sure what to make of des placing someone at L-1 while trying to "wait" for replacements to post. parama claimed vt which means his lynch isn't an uber loss to town,

if we lynch town now it will be a pretty big loss, no?

@parama, did you pick bob specifically as a tracker D2? Or just a PR? Or another PR?


Imaginality, no need to rush your post, be thorough. I very much doubt anyone will hammer before you post (within reason of course).

[deselby]

On second thoughts imag, maybe get a move on just in case someone does hammer....

[deselby]

Interesting that zodiark doesn't stand out, but people who were on wagons that both seemed to me pretty scummy at the time are your targets. Are you honestly saying that you did not think beck and hrezs acted scummy?

Scum have to mislynch and they can not hide behind their votes forever. Regardless of whether Beck or Hrez were scummy or not, they were both town and have been eliminated. I did think Beck was scummy but his claim should have bought him another day. I did not recall anything suspect from Hrez after I finished my first pass over the game.

Are you saying there are no scum on two mislynch wagons?

If your answer is 'no' then why do you have issue with my reasoning?

I think you know I didn't say that, in fact assuming 3 scum this is not even possible. I stated my issue in the post you quoted.

I can see why there is suspicion around of the bobs-parama mutual fan club. However, I think the bobs claim would have been risky as scum, and I can buy some of the confusion arising from bobs clumsiness. I can see parama as scum, but Zodiark and the kondi-ah-hf slot are definitely preferable lynches IMO.

So essentially you agree with most of what I have said or done in my short time in this game.

You agree with my take on the bobsnox claim and you can see my current votee [parama] as scum. So why am I a suspect for you?

Not quite. Bobs pretty much. parama no: "I can see parama as scum" does not equal "vote for parama cos he is the most likely scum". And zodiark no.

You are also a suspect for me because of kondi's play (not your fault obviously).

[deselby]

crazy day or so for me, will post again late tomorrow or so, sorry.

[deselby]

Parama – your scum hunting hasn’t had a good enough strike rate in this game for you not to bother putting forth a case on any target

To address dons suspicion of me- As I said, my vote post was a bit clumsy, but all I wanted to do was to state how I believed zod was heaps scummier than anyone else. He was always my top scumspect yesterday, and I was happy to put him at L-1. As everyone had voted at that stage except for imag I thought a quick hammer was pretty improbable. Obviously I was wrong about that.
Anyway, don, as it stands now, I am not sure of the scum motivation you assign to my vote since bobs flipped town and you think parama is probably town? If I were a “white knight” that means in your view (as it stands today) is that I saved 2 townies from a lynch in order to lynch a scum. Am I missing something?
I not sure I really agree with don’s statistical thoughts of parama. If bobs happened to track 2 out of 3 scum, then there is a 44% chance (2/3*2/3) that neither scum killed on that night. And now that we know he did track one scum, racking 2 scum is not that unlikely either. I think I can see your point, but I don’t think it is as significant as you seem to think. Having said all that, if anyone knows more about statistics than me (not hard) fell free to shout me down.
As for dons “we shouldn’t lynch neighbours” policy, your whole reasoning assumes you are town. I do not like this argument. You give no reason why the neighbourhood is scum free other than “xvart is town and I am town”. Lynching a neighbiour is a rather good idea IF there is scum in the hood.

[deselby]

Ok i have only concentrated on don here, from tomorrow i will have more time to reread everyone else.

[deselby]

@ don – Ok, I can see your bussing point being at least plausible. You say that I used other wagons to justify my vote, so to bring attention to my “bussing” I think? Well, I probably didn’t think the zod lynch was as inevitable as you did, and I should say that not everyone thought parama was town anyway. Also, the other wagons were more of a “prompt” rather than justification, the latter being zod’s scummy posting, though I can certainly see how my post could lead you to question it.

@don, I am concerned about your “let’s not lynch neighbours” proposal. As I said earlier, it only makes any sense if you are town, kind of a pointless in this game. It seems that you were just trying to frighten town into not lynching a neighbour (which would probably be you). For me it is the scummiest post of D4 so far.

As for the coolskins/don thing, the megaposts made my feeble mind ache and I had to have a lie down. But I think don’s theory was messy, 2 theories kind of mashed together. And today don thinks that his statistical improbability is enough to not only cancel his vote and theory of D3, but to actually think parama is town. Bit weird.

RE coolskins/xvart to-and-fro, "it's not scummy posting, it sucks, but because we are a hydra!!" Could be either imo.
@cooldog - not sure what you are getting at here:

Before I fully catch up I wanted to say that the scum killing bob was a big mistake. Whoever the scum were they really misjudged that kill. They had two to three people saying that for some reason bob was scum, when it was obvious that he was town. I'm going to look back and see who pushed the bob wagon.

Re: kondi's L-1 vote...is it more suspect than whoever placed the L-1 vote on Hrez or whoever placed the D1 or D2 hammers? Why is kondi's L-1 suspect?

Yes, as it was done without even an attempt at reasoning.
@fitz- are there any reasons, besides voting, why you believe xvart to be scum?

[deselby]

So my current reads are:

towniest - xvart

wary of - coolskins
parama - struggled the whole game to get a read. some good posting and some rubbish, I guess this is his style (possibly to make it difficult to read him??). Nothing overtly scummy at this stage imo, but, well, wary.
imag- both HC and imag's posting has been ok, but there has not been much of either.

lynchables atm - fitz and don. My vote, as things stand, will be on one of these, i will do another read before voting, maybe later today.

Also fizt, what don't you like about imag's reads (apart from the obvious)? What are yours?

[deselby]

The 'tracker wouldn't have tracked two scum in two nights' logic is totally invalid: The N2 results are independent of the N1 results. You can't say, "because he tracked scum N2 he's less likely to have tracked scum N1". That's logically equivalent to saying during D2, "if you track scum N2, then whoever you tracked last night is less likely to be scum," which is clearly nonsense.

If you flip two coins, before you look at them, there's only a 1/4 chance of both being heads. But if your second flip is heads, that doesn't change the fact your first flip has 1/2 chance of being heads. Same deal here. The Parama-track result gives some reason t think he's town, but no-one should be using the fact bobsnox tracked Zodiark as additional reason for Parama-town.

This explains it way better than I did.

@deselby (and others): what are your thoughts about the 'don_johnson-scum would have killed Parama/bob rather than mention they think there's a PR-connection between the two to xvart in the neighbour thread' point? Do you think he did that to wifom xvart, or do you think it's a point in favour of him being town but outweighed by the other points against him?

tbh, possibly a townish point, though could be wifom I guess- don brought this up before xvart, also don was also keen to get the neighbours thing out in the open ASAP which would allow him to try this kind of thing. Bobs looked quite lynchable for much of the game too, and don did have a go at it. This is all a bit speculative though.

But, looking more at AH and havingfitz's interactions with Zodiark as per havingfitz's request, I see AntiHero was first to point out Zodiark's contradiction, which led to the wagon on him.

bobs actually brought this up first (270). Antihero first mentioned it 297.

@don, I am concerned about your “let’s not lynch neighbours” proposal. As I said earlier, it only makes any sense if you are town, kind of a pointless in this game. It seems that you were just trying to frighten town into not lynching a neighbour (which would probably be you). For me it is the scummiest post of D4 so far.

Why is this only directed at don? I also said as much when I was addressing Parama because IF both neighbors are town and we just go the route of lynch the neighbors we lose.

Xvart- your posts in my view were very different.
Yours said “lets not lynch neighbours without good reason, cos it could lead to certain loss”. I agree, nothing about the neighbours aligments should be assumed just from the fact they are neighbours. And IF scum were going to try that tactic, they probably can’t now.
Don basically said “we must lynch outside the hood because we are both town”. If there is a good reason to lynch a neighbour we should do it.
If I read wrong let me know.

[deselby]

don scum will point to dselby IMO. don town should focus attention on xvart.

Can you expand on these assertions?

me using odds to supplement my reads is just common sense. even though image dropped the real stats(which prove you just as likely to be scum as anyone in that situation), i as a player am left with a choice: solidify reads or not. i chose to solidify mine on you, even though your posts read terrible imo. as an example, please see above where you give evidence of pro-town maveuvres dj makes, and yet call dj scum for them.

@don, you “solidified” your read based on stats that don’t add up, and posting that suggested the opposite???
I want to hammer you for this and your "don't lynch a neighbour" policy. Any reason I shouldn't?

[deselby]

don scum will point to dselby IMO. don town should focus attention on xvart.

Can you expand on these assertions?

me using odds to supplement my reads is just common sense. even though image dropped the real stats(which prove you just as likely to be scum as anyone in that situation), i as a player am left with a choice: solidify reads or not. i chose to solidify mine on you, even though your posts read terrible imo. as an example, please see above where you give evidence of pro-town maveuvres dj makes, and yet call dj scum for them.

@don, you “solidified” your read based on stats that don’t add up, and posting that suggested the opposite???
I want to hammer you for this and your "don't lynch a neighbour" policy. Any reason I shouldn't?

Don - you didn't address my concerns at all. You have posted 4 times without even referring to them. Then you call skins town and me scum, then at the end of the same post you include skins in your scum pool.
As fitz unvoted, this is not a hammer

vote : don_johnson. L-1

And fitz, there is a question there for you too.

[deselby]

i think we're better off letting imaginality in here before we end the day.

Imaginality, no need to rush your post, be thorough. I very much doubt anyone will hammer before you post (within reason of course).

On second thoughts imag, maybe get a move on just in case someone does hammer....

zod had self hammered.

i don't know. fitz/imag/des/xvart has to be the pool. i'll start isos soon. outside chance of parama scum, but like i said, if he's scum then we've already lost.

sorry skins.

What are you getting at here?

[deselby]

@don- fair enough, my concerns are here:

1) You said you "solidified" your read (of town parama) based on a statistical point you concede is wrong, and on his posting which you think is scummy (see post 596). How is this valid? Also, you mention in 599 that there is only an "outside chance of parama scum" despite the above points. This is a serious contradiction.

2) "lynching neighbours is a bad idea" (538).The first, second and last sentence in your argument obviously only apply IF you are both town, so pointless. The rest is saying "ignore the scum in the neighbourhood fallacy". Ok, but IF there is scum in the hood, we should lynch, and you seem to propose an equally fallacious "no scum in hood" position. I just really disliked this post, and can only see sum motivation for posting it - ie to make town reluctant to lynch a neighbour (very probably you at this opoint) in any circumstance. I guess I don't have a direct question for you here, other than "why am I wrong about it?". If you read your post again, do you stand by it, or do you want to add/retract anything?

3)In 599 you say you think coolskins is town twice, and then at the end of the post you include him in your lynch pool. A clear contradiction, can you explain this?

4) See my post 609. I don't know what you mean here, re the self hammer.

Coolskins may be unhppy at my lack of quoting, but i think it is clear what i am referring to if you look up the posts. Some of the huge posts in this game are not easy to read, and therefore probably unhelpful to town.

[deselby]

Thanks des. On my phone now. Ill answer the rest tomorrow night, but quickly, if you reread 599 skins is not in the lynch pool. Id feel more comfortable if you unvoted for a while. I will be busy the next few days and I would like to be sure and get some final thoughts into the thread if I am to be lynched.

Ok, I misread that post. Retract point 3).

unvote

, we have enough time, but my vote is still "on" you.

[deselby]

Don- re 599, you have xvart in the lynch pool, but you have said (eg 594) you think he is town. So 3) kind of stands actually, albeit in a modified form...

[deselby]

statistics are one thing. fact is, i work in the medical field. people beat the odds all the time. image pointed out that the "stats" involved in my math were not matched up with my interpretation of the data, but that doesn't change the fact that i think it would be highly unlikely that bobsnox tracked two vanilla scum in a row. bob also consistently stated his own town read on parama. parama's playstyle may be the culprit in why i find his posting "scummy", but his VCA is not entirely scummy. he has a night 1 clear. if he is scum, then he is vanilla scum. i just find it unlikely that is the case. there is a chance, but like i said before, i solidify my reads at times because if i don't then the game becomes too muddy. for instance, if i am lynched and flip town, my reads will carry more weight, no? so i think its important to do as such. i can't really argue the statistics because image is correct. but that is when you put stats in a vacuum, and that is not the case here. paramas votes are not all over the place. he seems to be targeting specific players in a coherent manner.

my dislike of his posting and style is not enough to override my belief that i don't think it likely that bob targeted two vanilla scum in a row.

Bold implies you hold the belief independent of your thoughts of parama. Thus you are "putting stats in a vacuum".
Another point about the "stats" thing, you haven't considered the likelihood of any tracker targeting the players bobs targeted. Zodiark was scummy and parama was a prominent player, so IMO it is more likely these two would be targetted by a tracker anyway.

i am more likely to be lynched today than xvart. i know i am town. my worry is that scum will then have an easy wagon to push in what would be lylo tomorrow. i.e. the one neighbor must be scum fallacy. seeing as how xvarts VCA is rather poor, i don't think its a good idea to lynch a neighbor today. if we lynch xvart and he flips town, then i am an easy mislynch tomorrow based on the fallacy. i have a town read on xvart, therefore i think it is a bad idea to lynch from the neighborhood today. you are not wrong about anything. my post clearly assumes two town neighbors. if one neighbor is scum, then it is xvart.

if you think i or xvart are scum, then i would say that it is safer to try and lynch who you think our partners are instead. this late in the game players start to take sides. by hunting who you think we would be paired with, that gives you more options tomorrow imo. its the same premise as not lynching a claimed town power role.

could the player still be scum? yes. but the safer route would be to hunt a possible partner before railroading yourself into a possible quick and easy loss.

I totally disagree with this. It is safer to lynch the player most likely to be scum. It is not the same as a claimed power role, as a PR is potentially useful to town (and testable sometimes too), whereas neighbours are neutral really. Anyway with all the talk of "scum in the hood fallacy", I can't see scum trying this tactic. The existence of the hood should have no bearing on votes one way or the other.

this one was modified. xvart is only in the pool because i can't be sure. if it comes down to "lynch don or xvart", i would most certainly lynch x.

You said we should not lynch in the hood, but xvart is in your pool.

4) See my post 609. I don't know what you mean here, re the self hammer.

My post after the self hammer was a joke. I thought it was clear, but I guess this can't be guaranteed when in text form. Reading back, do you think it was a serious post?


The reasoning is just too muddy for me. Part one is based on invalid arguments, and part 2 just seems designed to scare town into not voting for you.

vote don_johnson L-1

@fitz, can you please answer my question see 596, imag has asked too now.

[deselby]

des: you are just arguing my opinion. do you think parama is town? if so, why do you have a hard time believing that i agree?

Bold implies you hold the belief independent of your thoughts of parama. Thus you are "putting stats in a vacuum".
Another point about the "stats" thing, you haven't considered the likelihood of any tracker targeting the players bobs targeted. Zodiark was scummy and parama was a prominent player, so IMO it is more likely these two would be targetted by a tracker anyway.

no. my stats are not in a vacuum. but yes, if you actually look at statistics in a purely mathematical sense then my rationale does not fly. but thats just it. its my opinion. my opinion is that in this game, the likelihood of bob tracking two vanilla scum in a row is pretty improbable. if you disagree, then vote for parama.

What I think of parama, or the likelihood of bob trackong 2 scum*, is not relevant here. The fact is YOUR reasoning makes no sense, yet you are sticking to it. Maybe you thought parama was going to be too hard to lynch, so you looked elsewhere. Anyway, this, and your "leave the hood alone or be doomed" argument are why I think you are scum.

*I don't really have a town read on parama, but nor do I think is close to don and fitz in scumminess.
I don't think bobs tracking 2 scum is particularly unlikely at this point, as zod flipped scum, so that only means he needed to track scum 1/1 times.

also, your post does not read like a joke. if the timestamps were'nt so far apart it would read like you were ninja'd. you say it was a joke. ok. next time put sarcasm tags or a smilie in there and it will be more easily understood.

Ok, but I would like to know if anyone else doubted, or doubts, my post was a joke. If so I will do this from now on, but I would like to think I didn't have to.

[deselby]

@xvart, what was your reasoning for your change of vote? Not that i think it is a bad vote, but in your vote post you only spoke of why coolskins was scummy.

[deselby]

hectic w/end, back tomoerrow

[deselby]

Coolskins that hammer was terrible. "Don must absolutely die today! die don die!!!!! Oh, fitz is at L-1? Hammer!!" I can't see how that can be town at this point. We were not near the deadline, you were BOTH "85-95%" certainan don was scum, and a don lynch was still certainly possible. Also, the vote straight away today is rather dangerous if you are not scum.
The only problem is that would mean don is probably town. Otherwise, despite xvarts points, it would be the bus from hell.
xvart- what do you think of this possiblility, considering coolskins attacking of don?

I am going to have a look at coolskins/parama and coolskins/xvart. To me xvart is the townier, so skins/parama is more likely at this stage. I still think don has been scummy though.....

[deselby]

vote don_johnson

[deselby]

I'll take the $10 too....

[deselby]

I know, I thought about voting but I wasn't sure you would be online, it had been a few hours since your last post onsite. I really did have a mega busy weekend, so this was my first chance to post. I will accept a cyber punch if it makes you feel better

[deselby]

My day has just started, (it is 11.51am!!!!!). Late night and stuff. It is winter here, so no time off work atm

[deselby]

Boy I can't wait for the townies to arrive :3

Yeah! I think don is going to be the most pissed off.

So, my first game as scum, my first lylo, and my first win! Wasn't sure how to play lylo....

You could've easily slipped on the wagon without it looking like a scum attempt at a quickhammer. I had my top scumpair lined up that way for a reason xP

Ahh ok, gotta admit, you were always a step ahead of me in this game parama....I guess I can't take ALL of the credit for the win:) Thanks to zod too, and all the other players for a good game. This was my first "proper" game, I only lasted one day in my only other game. Enjoyed it a lot, and am gonna sign up for another!

cheers!

[deselby]

I agree we had luck on our side. That one post of becks D1 "fuck you all I will kill who I want!!!". If he didn't post that, it could have been a very different game. Finding celeb was a big bonus too.
Also, it seems to me it is not a hugely bad thing as scum to be a noob, people may forgive you a bit more.

[deselby]

@ beck, you should not have been lynched despite the post, though that's easy to say from here. I also learnt a lot, including it is easy to get lynched from one post (eg beck and zod).

don, you do deserve credit for the claim stuff, nobody else got on board. Who would you have lynched today?

[deselby]

How did you catch the PRs visiting you N1 - was deselby/Zodiark a watcher? Or was Parama a self-watcher?

I hate neighbors btw

I like neighbours. The trick is not to outguess the mod, just focus on getting a good read on the scummier of the two neighbours. The townier of the two probably is town (I can't recall seeing any games where the townier neighbour turned out to be scum).

I was a watcher, got pretty lucky, we would not have killed celeb N2 otherwise. I liked having the neighbours in the game, but they did seem to favour scum if anything.

@cooldog imag was killed cos he seemed unlikely to be lynched (mostly parama's idea, I think i would have gone for xvart).

thanks HP for modding too btw

[deselby]

I f$%#ing hate games with neighbors in them. Most worthless roles there are.

Though I was happy to have the neighbours in the game, they do seem "worthless" as far as aiding any faction.

@HP - what was the thinking behind including neighbours? Was it just to add intrigue, or to affect balance in some way?