Mini 1183: Mafiamatical Mathia - Game over!

[theplague42]

Juls, then me, then TS.

[Juls]

I'm VT.

[theplague42]

I'm VT as well.

[Oopidstay]

implosion is the lynch today. There was a lot of straw-grasping in that last post of his.

Debating whether to hold the vote until massclaim is finished...

[Juls]

We have time.

[don_johnson]

oopid: any breadcrumbs?

[don_johnson]

we could use this lynch on oopid. if he flips cop, i jail implo again. if theres an nk we lynch juls?

i don't know, just kind of brainstorming here...

[theplague42]

Still doesn't clear you, though.

[theplague42]

The no-NK could be a setup thing. Or not in mini-normal?

[don_johnson]

gut says implo. if he flips town, i jail juls and oopid investigates me. then we lynch oopid? 3:6 is a wierd thought. hadn't occurred to me. i'd rather think that my skills are on fire...

[don_johnson]

Still doesn't clear you, though.

i'm not trying to clear me. i'm trying to win. i know i'm town and unless this is a no-kill set-up, i am more valuable than the cop at this point.

[Juls]

Right now I am leaning toward an implosion lynch but I need to think this through. In addition to TS's role I would like to know if Morthas has any more powers not already claimed.

[theplague42]

I don't see how that would work.

Also, there could be a purpose no-NK for your first idea set.

Ok what do we have.

One investigate, and one jailkeep. Morthas is confirmed.
Town-oopid clears me and TS.
don roleblocked and protected morthas and implo.

Me, Juls, and implo all claimed VT. I think that's everyone

@don
But we don't know if you are really town or not. I believe you I think, but not 100%.

[theplague42]

sorry I meant everyone except TS.

[Juls]

plague, you are conveniently forgetting mafia could have a godfather. You aren't 100% cleared.

[theplague42]

plague, you are conveniently forgetting mafia could have a godfather. You aren't 100% cleared.

Good point.

[implosion]

implosion is the lynch today. There was a lot of straw-grasping in that last post of his.

Debating whether to hold the vote until massclaim is finished...

Frankly, based on night actions, this is the kind of situation where I would think I was scum if I didn't know that I'm not. If I look like I'm grasping at straws, that's why. I'm, again, fine with being lynched based on claimed night actions, but I'd like to help with the night action plan before that. I'd like to do that after TS claims for the most part, but I'll assume that he claims vanilla townie.

Anyway, here's my plan:

Oopidstay should investigate don_johnson tonight.

Why? Well, first of all, if he is scum we want to catch him early. He's going to be pivotal in the nightgame. After don, he should investigate juls then morthas. Actually, possibly morthas then juls. If I'm not lynched today, he should investigate me or don tonight. The downside is the possibility of don dying, but I discuss this below. There is a specific reason, which is the fact that don's role could be confirmable.

Claims

:

VT - implosion, juls, plague.
Jailkeeper - don
Cop - oopid
Neighbor - morthas
waiting - TS

After I'm lynched, don has a few jailing choices. He shouldn't jail morthas or oopid. He should jail a vanilla townie claim,

who he announces before the lynch today.

We'll assume two mafia. So, at this point there are two obvious possibilities. Either someone will or no one will die at night. This dichotomy is illustrated below:

If there is no nightkill

- lynch the person that don jailed. Don declares another target and jails them. At this point in the game, the living claims would be (assuming TS VT claim):

Jailkeeper, cop, neighbor, 3 VT claims (juls plague TS)

You'll lynch the VT claim that don jailed. Lets say it's plague for simplicity, and that he declares he'll jail TS:

Jailkeeper, cop, neighbor, VT, jailed VT going into night.

At this point, we again see the dichotomy of there being or not being a kill. IF THERE IS NO KILL, there will be 5 alive and probably a mislynch. That mislynch should be used on the jailed. If they flip town, the living claims will be: VT, jk, cop, neighbor. At this point, the cop should have investigated don and gotten town (if they got mafia, don should be dead by now). At this point,

don would jail oopidstay.

If don died, the VT would be scum. If oopid died, don would be scum. If the vanilla townie died, don would be scum. If no one dies OR if the neighbor dies, then there's a very simple test to determine scum. Ask oopid if he was roleblocked. If he was roleblocked, this means that don is role confirmed and is likely not a godfather, meaning the innocent on him can be trusted - furthermore, since he was roleblocked, he can't be scum. So if the cop confirms being roleblocked, lynch the VT. If the cop denies it, lynch don, since the cop is clear from having been blocked. That all works if the neighbor died. If no one died, ask the same question. If he agrees that he was blocked, don is essentially clear. Lynch the cop, jail the vanilla townie, lynch the vanilla townie. If the cop denies being blocked, then either don is a gambiting godfather or oopid is scum. At this point, the vanilla townie and the neighbor would have to figure out who's scum between don and oopid.

If there is a nightkill - treat the person that don jailed as confirmed town. They are unless it's 3 scum. If it is 3 scum and no nightkills, by the way, don and oopid could very well both be scum. A jailkeeper would not make sense in that situation (protection would be useless) and a cop would break the game - unless there's a godfather, which is also possible.

Anyway, back to the plan. If there's a nightkill, it would almost definitely fall on a power role claim. If oopid is nightkilled: you have essentially confirmed innocents in the jailkeep target and the neighbor, which would hopefully be enough to win. If don is nightkilled: oopid would have wasted a night investigation. You still have confirmed innocents in morthas and [jailkeep target], though, which would hopefully be enough. If morthas is nightkilled: don's jailkept VT is clear. If oopid investigated don and got town, you can use the above method of lynching a vanilla townie claim and having don jailkeep oopid to try to role-confirm himself. If don dies, 2 clears out of 3 players. If oopid died, don would be lying scum. So either there would be a counterclaim or town would win.

At this point, basically, if TS claims VT and the scum isn't in {Oopid, don} we're in VERY good shape. If TS claims a power role, then that gives us even MORE to work with, which would be awesome.

The above plan in short:

Every day, don needs to declare who he's going to jail before there is a lynch. Once the game goes down to four players going into night, or possibly even earlier, don can jail oopid to role-confirm himself, since it's unlikely that an individual mafioso would be both a godfather and a roleblocker or jailkeeper. It isn't impossible, but it's relatively unlikely. If oopid denies it, there will be a counter-claim. The downside is that the plan makes several assumptions, including:

-morthas is town.
-the mafia is not immune to roleblocking or protection.

The upside is that it doesn't assume that the mafia isn't a godfather. If the above assumptions are true, then the plan has close to sure success if oopid and don are both town. Otherwise, they'll probably wind up as counterclaimants.

Thoughts?

[Morthas]

I don't posses any other abilities ;/
Implosion and Juls are the most viable lynches now right? Assuming no Godfather that is.
Wait, doesn't the possibility of a godfather invalidate all of Oopid's results?

[Hoppster]

Day 3, Votecount 2

theplague42 - 0

[L - 4]

Twistedspoon - 1

[L - 3]

(theplague42)

Morthas - 0

[L - 4]

Juls - 0

[L - 4]

implosion - 0

[L - 4]

don_johnson - 0

[L - 4]

Oopidstay - 0

[L - 4]

No Lynch - 0

[L - 4]

Not Voting - 6 (Twistedspoon, Morthas, Juls, implosion, don_johnson, Oopidstay)

Deadline: Monday July 4th at 23:00 BST

Time left:

(expired on 2011-07-04 18:00:00)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Twistedspoon]

give me a V
V

give me a T
T

VT

[Twistedspoon]

I also like to think don is clear. I see no reason to find him scummy and his role makes him even more town

at this point I'm thinking Juls is scum because of all the near-clears we have now

VOTE: Juls

I can go back to the kalofer hammer. It was way to risky to do unless you knew kalofer was going to flip scum

[Twistedspoon]

actually maybe it's implosion, what with Don jailkeeping him,

UNVOTE:

I think it's one of them two

I'll trust the jailkeeper. I see no reason why Juls would want to kill implosion (although I'm not sure who Juls would kill if a morthas kill failed already)

[Twistedspoon]

Wait, doesn't the possibility of a godfather invalidate all of Oopid's results?

yep

[Juls]

implosion, your plan is easily thwarted by scum. Let's say we tell Don to jail me. The mafia can then just No kill to make it look like I was the one who did the kill. We don't learn anything from it. If they go the other route and just straight up kill don then we lose one of our mislynches. I have to think now that all the claims are in that both Oopid and don are being truthful. That means town has two power roles and a neighbor (which is more of a weakness to us than a help). I think we lynch implosion today and go from there. As it stands right now we can mislynch twice and then still have 3-way LYLO.

[Juls]

Plus, if don was the final scum he was FIRST to claim which means either we have your theory of a 3:6 or he has NK'd both nights or he was pretty ballsy to fake claim.