Mini 1183: Mafiamatical Mathia - Game over!


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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 2:16 am

Post by implosion »

@Twistedspoon: I agree that don is probable town. We cannot, however, instantly write him off as clear.

Juls wrote:implosion, your plan is easily thwarted by scum. Let's say we tell Don to jail me. The mafia can then just No kill to make it look like I was the one who did the kill. We don't learn anything from it. If they go the other route and just straight up kill don then we lose one of our mislynches. I have to think now that all the claims are in that both Oopid and don are being truthful. That means town has two power roles and a neighbor (which is more of a weakness to us than a help). I think we lynch implosion today and go from there. As it stands right now we can mislynch twice and then still have 3-way LYLO.

Ah, but it isn't... my "there's no kill" plan works whether or not you're scum. Lets say we lynch me, jail you, mafia no kill and the town lynches you. that's five people going into night: don, oopid, morthas, twisted, plague. At this point, don jails oopid, actually. If no one dies, you simply ask oopid if he was roleblocked. If he says no, lynch don then oopid. If he says yes, don is cleared and you lynch oopid and don jails between the last VTs (again announcing his result). Lets say that he jails the wrong VT but mafia nokill - then lynch that VT, and don jails the other VT with 3 people going into night. If don dies, oopid would be clear and we'd have a confirmed scum godfather or scum neighbor. If someone else died, oopid would still be clear and you can ask him if he was roleblocked to clear don.

Sure, it isn't foolproof, but I think it drastically increases winning odds. Cop+jailkeeper+neighbor sounds fairly balanced, so I'm willing to believe all of the PR claims. I also happen to think that plague is godfatherscum, but if he is, the plan would most likely catch him. If don is town, he should think a fair amount about who he jails (but MAKE SURE to announce it publicly) and try to jail scum.
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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 2:21 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

@oopid: have you played as scum before on mafiascum? If so can you link me to a scum game of yours (one that you lived until LyLo in)
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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 3:49 am

Post by Morthas »

I'm seeing implosions plan as our best bet, i don't see any more optimal way of doing it. I'd go with a Implo/plague/Juls lynch.
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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 4:22 am

Post by Juls »

My initial understanding was that we no lynch today. Implosion are you saying we continue to lynch as normal?
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:06 am

Post by implosion »

My plan was assuming that I'd be lynched today. It works with a lynch on any VT claim.
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:09 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

in all honesty I think juls is the last scum

lynch Juls
jailkeep oopid
oopid investigates Juls

sounds a good plan. It has it's weaknesses in that we assume there is no godfather (which shouldn't be too unreasonable. I personally don't see why they're allowed in normal games. they're as bad as janitors or bus drivers to me), that morthas is town, and that oopid and don are telling the truth
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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:09 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

Twistedspoon wrote:
lynch implosion
jailkeep oopid
oopid investigates Juls

is what i meant to say
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Post by theplague42 »

Ok I had a thought about don blocking oopid this morning and didn't get to post it. At the moment, I can't think of any way for that to clear both at once. If someone else can, then feel free to post it. A thought I had was to randomly block/no-block. don would random.org and then follow that action. oopid would have to report whether or not he was blocked. If they do it at exactly the same time, we have a good chance of confirming both of them, or catching a scum. Thoughts?

Preview edit: That works like I thought.
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:16 am

Post by Juls »

I really don't understand why we would jailkeep oopid tonight. He has given no reason to disbelieve his claim and the fact that HE CLAIMED FIRST makes it even more believable.

The focus should be on these 4: TS, Juls, implosion, plague. We have 3 chances to get it right. The jailkeep should be used as a roleblock more than a doc because it's fine if we lose oopid at night. Losing don makes it a little more difficult. Lynch me if you want but it's a wasted lynch. I would rather be jailkept. Personally, I think plague is the last scum despite the innocent.

Pedit: Um if you jailkeep oopid he cant investigate me.
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:16 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

i hate godfathers

they just negate the point of a cop
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:25 am

Post by Juls »

implosions plan works great only if we get the scum the first night because don is dying otherwise.
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:26 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

sadly for us godfather is a normal role

here's my new plan

we no lynch today and jailkeep juls tonight. If there's a kill then Juls is clear
If there is no kill then there is no loss and we repeat again the process with different investigations until we get a guilty.
that way we either get a clear or no NK. both are good
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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:27 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

Juls wrote:implosions plan works great only if we get the scum the first night because don is dying otherwise.

not if don jailkeeps correctly

whoever don jailkeeps is confirmed if there is a kill and if there is no kill then there is no loss

RBs and godfathers ruin things though
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:28 am

Post by Juls »

Bad plan. We don't no lynch. We lose a mislynch if we do. I would rather be lynched today than Jailkept tonight.

P-edit: If I was scum, I would give town a confirmed to get rid of the jailkeeper.
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:31 am

Post by theplague42 »

So do we pick TS's plan or don's?

Preview edit: How would that confirm, Juls? I'm confused.
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:32 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

Juls scum is looking less likely with all the 'I'd rather be lynched posts.' the same can be said for implosion too

I'm buying the jailkeeper claim as no kills occured
I'm also buying the cop claim as oopid dropped his case on me D2

the way i see it, implosion would not have been targeted for a nightkill. The jailkeeping must have been to stop him commiting the kill

VOTE: implosion
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:38 am

Post by Juls »

Actually, I think this is autowin to be honest:

We will call me, TS, plague, and implosion player A, B, C, D

Lynch Player A (end day with 5:1)
Jail Player B
Did a kill occur?
Yes wrote:
DJ died, Player B is confirmed. (end night with 4:1)
Lynch player C (end day with 3:1)
Scum kills Oopid in night (day begins 2:1 with Morthas and player B cleared, Player D is scum)


No wrote:
Everyone lives! (end night with 5:1)
Lynch Player B (end day with 4:1)
Don Jails Player C.
Kill occured? Yes, Player C is confirmed, Lynch player D (game over!)
Kill didn't occur, Lynch Player C (game over!)


This assumes DJ and Oopid are telling the truth and scum can't block. I need to think more on if they are lying or if scum has a block.
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:49 am

Post by Juls »

Also, in the scenarios above Oopid would not tell us who he is investigating until the next day. No reason to out it.
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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:52 am

Post by implosion »

don jailkeeping oopid is a bad idea, i think. we want investigations.

As for juls's version of the plan (416): the only flaw (which is rather obvious) is the assumption that oopid and don are both towh. In the "yes" scenario, the scum wouldn't kill oopid in night - they would leave him alive and try to lynch him if he's town. Or he could be scum, in which case your plan obviously fails.

The reasoning behind either don jailkeeping oopid at some point or oopid investigating don at some point is to clear them. Y'know, if there is a kill, it is probably going to be on don if he's town... if it isn't, we'd have 2 clears and a jailkeeper claim still alive.

What would people think about oopid investigating morthas tonight? I'm frankly a bit paranoid the more i think of neighbor-neighbor both scum, in which case an investigation on morthas (if morthas would scum) would force morthas to kill oopid. If morthas is scum and killed oopid, then we would have a 100% clear townie (the jailkeepee) and it might be safe to lynch morthas and have don jail, maybe. The thing is, I have significant town reads irrespective of roleclaims on every player except plague and morthas. Two scum neighbors isn't impossible - it honestly is probably a good thing to not assume that morthas is town.

Juls, what would you think about oopid investigating morthas?
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:53 am

Post by theplague42 »

Twistedspoon wrote:Juls scum is looking less likely with all the 'I'd rather be lynched posts.' the same can be said for implosion too

I'm buying the jailkeeper claim as no kills occured
I'm also buying the cop claim as oopid dropped his case on me D2

the way i see it, implosion would not have been targeted for a nightkill. The jailkeeping must have been to stop him commiting the kill

VOTE: implosion

1. Juls could be lying. I doubt it, but ya never know :D
2. If no kills occurred b/c of jailkeeper, then we don't know if it was because of the roleblock or protect.
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:54 am

Post by implosion »

cop+neighbor or jailkeeper+neighbor VS 2 scum in 9p is probably imbalanced. neighbor+cop+jailkeeper or cop+jailkeeper VS 2 essentially vanilla scum wouldn't be imbalanced, IMO. So they're more likely, so oopid and don are probably both town.

P-EDIT: plague, if don announces the jailkeep target beforehand, then successful protections and mafia no-kills can be treated equivalently. If he announces it, the scum would have no reason to kill that target so they might as well nokill instead if that's what they plan to do.
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:57 am

Post by theplague42 »

@implo
I'm talking about how TS is using the no-kills as justification for believing don's claim.
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:57 am

Post by Juls »

I have talked to the mod about this and plan on addressing it with the normal review committee after but the normal roles explicitly states that
Scum masons are disallowed
. I know what Hoopla said, and I know what the mod says but I am going to go based on the assumption that scum masons cannot be allowed and therefore Morthas is town. If it turns out to be different then I will certainly not be a happy camper after the game.

Also, in the world where we follow my plan I would prefer plague be the first lynch.
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:58 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

implosion, if we assume don is telling the truth, why do you think you were targeted by the mafia?
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:58 am

Post by Twistedspoon »

Juls wrote:

Also, in the world where we follow my plan I would prefer plague be the first lynch.

agreed
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