Newbie 1104 -- Game over

[noragar]

EBWOR Looks like I left of the end of the second paragraph... "So, in my opinion, chkflip/Muffin is cleared."

[zMuffinMan]

Haylen needs to die IMO. Just for #718.

[Haylen]

And why is that, Muffin? Is it because I mis-hammered? A lot of people do it you know. And as you can see it hasn't ended the game AND it's lowered the list of suspects ~ silver lining.

[gbevilchaos]

Updated Reads:

Muffin - confirmed town as per Forest's posts. There were a few times where she specifically said "Muffin is town" with no proof. That sure makes a lot more sense now.
Morthas - null read, need to hear more from him.
Hayl - town read
TS - town read
noragar - leaning scum; the scummiest person here now

I'm surprised Espe flipped scum, but considering that it was kind of a split decision at the end between Espe/noragar, I guess it was a 50:50 shot there. Hayl and TS's willingness to vote for Espe despite their main cases being on other players (TS --> noragar, Hayl --> CC) bugs me a bit, but it could easily be town looking for the momentum boost that comes with a lynch and the information gained from it.

[Morthas]

We can assume that forest did not investigate these:
Noragar (voting through day 2)
Twisted (explained below)

I'm almost certain TS is not scum after this post. Although it could be cover.

^- not a post you'd make if you investigated and gotten an innocent on Twisted.
Espeonage (votes him)
Which leaves Muffin, gbdevil, Haylen, Myself.
Forest Air has said several times that Muffin is town and that he is getting a gut feeling that muffin is town.

chkflip also strikes me as suspicious, because he seems to keep following TS without much time passing by

^ motivation to investigate

I think Chkflip was trying to play it safe since TS is the IC

chkflip is town, a lot of the posts I quoted earlier seem pro-town.

For the time being, my vote stays on noragar because my gut's telling me chkflip/muffin is town.

Town: Muffin, (gut feeling)

Chkflip seemed town to me, especially some of the things he said about me at the beginning of d1. The way he questions he asked gave off town reads for me.

^- Put chkflip/muffin on town and mostly says he is town because of gut feelings

Conclusion: I believe she investigated and got an innocent on muffin.

[Twistedspoon]

okay

what I want to know is how they new forest was a cop

I had no clue forest was cop and she would certainly not have been my choice were I a mafioso

@Haylen: how do you think the scum knew forest was a cop. Furthermore do you think it makes you appear more likely to be scum as you're the most experienced here and therefore probably better at identifying newbie PRs and cops

[Twistedspoon]

I'm only seeing 3 reasons why forest would be killed

1) becasue a more obvious kill may be doc protected
2) because they thought forest was a doc or cop
3) scum hasn't been reading the thread, forgot that forest was generally suspected and got lucky with a cop kill

the problem is, I don't know which

I'm surprised Espe flipped scum

Espe flipped town
espe did not flip scum

[Haylen]

Two reasons scum could have thought F_A was a cop: 1) She left a massive breadcrumb (which I haven't seen yet). 2) Scum have a role cop who investigated her on Night One.

It probably would make me look scum, however, I wouldn't have spent 2 hrs yesterday making a post that concludes her to ping my scumdar if I knew I could just off her the next night. There's also the fact that if I had caught a cop, I would have pulled a gambit in which I make myself look really town like thus avoiding an investigation - kill them two nights after I had spotted the breadcrumb/got a role cop investigation and then pinned it all on a newbie by saying it would have taken them longer to spot a breadcrumb or randomly investigate them. So, unless F_A dropped a breadcrumb on Day One, I'm practically in the clear. It does make me wonder why, though TS, you are actively encouraging a WIFOM discussion.

I get the feeling that this was a rolecop kill rather than a breadcrumb kill since I didn't spot any breadcrumb on my iso of F_A

F_A DID NOT get a scum result on Night One. Game would be over if she had.

FACT

F_A DID NOT investigate CC.
F_A DID NOT investigat Chkflip.
F_A DID NOT investigate Noragar
F_A MAY NOT have investigated Espeonage.

F_A DID investigate TS.
F_A DID investigate Frostbite.
F_A DID investigate Gbe.

I'm getting this information from this post:

Okay, here are my reads. Anything posted here is viable to change after we figure out who dies tonight.

TS: Innocent enough, he would have not started the bandwagon if he were a scum accomplice.
noragar: I think he is scum. As was said earlier, Otolia seemed protective of him and he had the same vote as Otolia, who is scum.
CC: Hasn't been around due to V/LA but I can't quite determine whether or not he's town, as he posted a lot of fluff.
Frostbite: Seems like town, but I may just be saying that because CC voted for him.
gbevilchaos: If you were scum, you would not have put Otolia at L-1, inviting to hammer him. So, pro-town.
chkflip: I'm suspicious of him, but if he knew Otolia were scum, he would have jumped off the bagon once he saw how many voters Otolia had. So, probably townie.
espeonage: He hasn't posted a lot, but I'm waiting his post. I'm putting him on my suspect list, but he isn't the most suspicious.

She investigated one of the ones I stated as being investigated because she got a town result on Night One. I will be REALLY annoyed if we have a Jailkeeper and I'm going through this logic when they jailkeeped Forest_Air last night.

I find it REALLY interesting that Twistedspoon is ignoring the probably existence of a scum role cop. Why is this, TS?

[Twistedspoon]

I had comepletly forgeotted about a scum rolecop and jailkeeper
I'm still thinking F11 here.
:p

Rolecop explains things nicely and satisfys my occham's razor

It does make me wonder why, though TS, you are actively encouraging a WIFOM discussion.

any discussion is good discussion. I'm not going to look over any topic or dismiss anything on the grounds of wifom.
In my first mini normal I was given the stern warning that wifom is not the holy grail of mafia. I never dismiss anything on the grounds of wifom. I just take that into cinsideration in my evaluation of the evidence.
AS critical thinking here :p

where was I?

[Twistedspoon]

I'm going to be controversial

VOTE: no lynch

discuss

[Morthas]

Two reasons scum could have thought F_A was a cop: 1) She left a massive breadcrumb (which I haven't seen yet). 2) Scum have a role cop who investigated her on Night One.

It probably would make me look scum, however, I wouldn't have spent 2 hrs yesterday making a post that concludes her to ping my scumdar if I knew I could just off her the next night. There's also the fact that if I had caught a cop, I would have pulled a gambit in which I make myself look really town like thus avoiding an investigation - kill them two nights after I had spotted the breadcrumb/got a role cop investigation and then pinned it all on a newbie by saying it would have taken them longer to spot a breadcrumb or randomly investigate them. So, unless F_A dropped a breadcrumb on Day One, I'm practically in the clear. It does make me wonder why, though TS, you are actively encouraging a WIFOM discussion.

I get the feeling that this was a rolecop kill rather than a breadcrumb kill since I didn't spot any breadcrumb on my iso of F_A

F_A DID NOT get a scum result on Night One. Game would be over if she had.

FACT

F_A DID NOT investigate CC.
F_A DID NOT investigat Chkflip.
F_A DID NOT investigate Noragar
F_A MAY NOT have investigated Espeonage.

F_A DID investigate TS.
F_A DID investigate Frostbite.
F_A DID investigate Gbe.

I'm getting this information from this post:

Okay, here are my reads. Anything posted here is viable to change after we figure out who dies tonight.

TS: Innocent enough, he would have not started the bandwagon if he were a scum accomplice.
noragar: I think he is scum. As was said earlier, Otolia seemed protective of him and he had the same vote as Otolia, who is scum.
CC: Hasn't been around due to V/LA but I can't quite determine whether or not he's town, as he posted a lot of fluff.
Frostbite: Seems like town, but I may just be saying that because CC voted for him.
gbevilchaos: If you were scum, you would not have put Otolia at L-1, inviting to hammer him. So, pro-town.
chkflip: I'm suspicious of him, but if he knew Otolia were scum, he would have jumped off the bagon once he saw how many voters Otolia had. So, probably townie.
espeonage: He hasn't posted a lot, but I'm waiting his post. I'm putting him on my suspect list, but he isn't the most suspicious.

She investigated one of the ones I stated as being investigated because she got a town result on Night One. I will be REALLY annoyed if we have a Jailkeeper and I'm going through this logic when they jailkeeped Forest_Air last night.

I find it REALLY interesting that Twistedspoon is ignoring the probably existence of a scum role cop. Why is this, TS?

Um Haylen, you do realize that forest air post you got is from Day 1 right?

[Twistedspoon]

^This

[Morthas]

I'm going to be controversial

VOTE: no lynch

discuss

No.

[Twistedspoon]

think about it

the only reason we don't NL is to keep an odd number of players from going into LyLo

the Jailkeep/doc protect has already messed this up, so we need to restore the balance by No lynching

that and I have no outstanding scumreads. Noragar?

I'm going to re-read Otolia on Gbevil

[Twistedspoon]

townieness list

TOWN
morthas
Haylen
Muffin
Gbevil
Norgar
MAFIOSO?

[Haylen]

Damn. I thought that was from Day Two That's what you get from Iso's.

Ts, no, we are not no lynching. If you are town then you will retract that statement, we are supposed to be showing optimum play. We'll deal with balance in mylo.

[Twistedspoon]

why can't we no lynch?
sigh

VOTE: noragar

[Twistedspoon]

do you still think forest got a not guilty on muffin?

[Morthas]

Damn. I thought that was from Day Two That's what you get from Iso's.

Ts, no, we are not no lynching. If you are town then you will retract that statement, we are supposed to be showing optimum play. We'll deal with balance in mylo.

My iso told me she investigated Muffin.

[Morthas]

do you still think forest got a not guilty on muffin?

Who is that question directed to 0.o?

[gbevilchaos]

I'm surprised Espe flipped scum

Espe flipped town
espe did not flip scum

Sorry, I was typing that post in between matches of Starcraft. As evidenced by the rest of my post, I know that Espe flipped town.

After rereading F_A's iso, this post stands out as a possible "breadcrumb" of her being a cop.

Muffin's not scum.

That isn't taken out of context. It's the entire post. I questioned such a sure statement and demanded evidence when she made it, but eventually dismissed it as just a gut read or a holistic read of Muffin. It's possible that experienced scum (TS or Hayl) could have taken the post as meaning she actually knew 100% that Muffin was scum. It's also very possible that the scum rolecop detected her Night 1, but that is a stretch in my opinion. I would think that a noobscum would target the IC or SE for rolecop if they were randomly choosing someone in order to check out the players they view as most dangerous. Noobscum wouldn't be experienced enough to pick up on anything Day 1 to suggest they should investigate F_A. Especially if TS/Hayl didn't. If a rolecop did see something to cause them to investigate her, it was probably an experienced player who could pick up on these things (at the time TS, chkflip/Hayl, Espe). We know Espe was town, so that again leaves TS/Hayl as possible people that would find something in Day 1 to push them to investigate F_A.

TS and Hayl both settled on lynching Espe after originally wanting to lynch someone else, which could be scum wanting to lynch an easy target.

TS and Hayl are both giving off their fair share of town reads, though, so I honestly don't know what to think. I would consider them worth checking out a bit though. Especially TS, who hasn't come under any major pressure ever.

[Morthas]

I have reason to believe Haylen is town (i expressed before) so i think it's either TS or Gbdevil. Obviously ill look up on them sometime soon.

[Twistedspoon]

VOTE: Norgar
I was of the impression an espe lynch would lead us to a near-certain noragar lynch today, as I wanted

my theory is that noragar is the scum rolecop
noragar rolecop'd forest N1 and killed forest N2

If anyone has a strong objection to this lynch then speak now. Otherwise this lynch should happen as I wanted it to from D1.

[zMuffinMan]

Uh, does no one else see the major problem I have with #718?

I'll give you a clue, it's here:

I will be be posting my TwistedSpoon analysis tomorrow, for now I don't consider i to be too important in the state of the game.

This is what she said as she hammered Espeonage.

Anyway,

Twisted is town, noragar is tow, Morthas and gb are prob-town. It's back to PoE for me. Soz4TK Espeonage.

Will be re-reading a few things soon.

[Twistedspoon]

it is just you muffin who finds noragar town

I comprimised to an espe lynch yesterday. you should today