Open 318: By Nomination Only (Game Over)

[Amrun]

PZ's post immediately above asked why people were ignoring forest-air. I answered with my opinion of forest-air.

[Hoopla]

I find it strange that several people are theorising on how/why me defending Fenchurch would be beneficial to me as scum, whilst completing neglecting the other side of the coin. It's awfully specious reasoning in the sense that you can't detect the likelihood of scum motivation without considering how likely it is to be a town action. They're dependent on each other.

zMuffinMan seems to have convinced himself of this. My question to him is; why does my defense of Fenchurch make more sense as scum? You've outlined a very specific scenario where I could hypothetically gain from defending Fenchurch, but why is that answer more compelling than any of the possible answers you can find under the town column, ie; a strong advocate for declaring town reads (thus believing that defending a town read is a pro-town thing to do), interested in setting up a voting bloc for pro-town purposes, more interested in getting

my

scumreads lynched (thus minimising competition from someone who I think is town), and so on.

It's all well and good to identify how an action could be beneficial for scum, but whatever that action was, it needs to make more sense as a scum action than a town action, and it looks like you're paying little attention to the latter.

The other reason I personally think this is Hoopla-scum buddying Fenchurch-town is because of Hoopla's strategy for this game, which is outlined in #147 - to be specific, I think this is Hoopla-scum is trying to form a voting bloc

This is the mindset of a conspiracy theorist - he comes to a conclusion of whatever it is he wants to believe, and then twists and applies information to suit the belief. I fail to believe zMuffinMan truly believes that is a likelier scenario than any combination of the town reasons I provided.

~~

Nobody Special, Amrun, Copper and VitaminR are the group of players I'd be most willing to lynch right now.

Explain this. In as much detail as you could possibly go into.

I don't want you to squirm your way out of this. Twisted asked you why Copper is one of your top suspects, you don't get to answer with "well, he isn't after his last post".

I happen to know who controls the Copper account, and from what I know, their output of three posts up until that time was underwhelming, particularly since none of the posts screamed town - I hold the players of Copper in high regard. Their explanation of their goal to be as concise as possible makes a lot of sense to me. I can see them trying to make their posts as relevant and fluff-free as possible.

VitaminR was also a good wagon to kickstart - I was considering bailing from NS's wagon a little earlier in pursuit of that, but Copper beat me to it.

I have to go to work now, so I'll tell you all about the rest of those reads when I get back.

~~

While I'm away, I'm interested in your town reads, and your thoughts on divulging on them. Do you think it's pro-town to declare town reads in this setup?

If you can't give me that, give me your new scumreads since I debunked your Fen-suspicion (and hopefully mine).

[Papa Zito]

Buddying in this game would be really stupid. Scum need, what, five mislynches to win? And that's assuming they don't get lynched themselves? Durp.

I'm really scratching my head at these last two wagon shifts.

[VitaminR]

Obviously, some reaction tests demand you obscure your reasoning, and a few have you withholding your read entirely. But not voting at

all

? There is no player you can commit to saying "they should be lynched over other players?"

I'm a cautious player. Once I vote, I commit to it and I don't tend to vote for pressure. I haven't withheld my reads entirely, though. In the first couple of pages, I thought Amrun and twisted were good semi-serious votes.

I'd also like to point out the strong dichotomy between TwistedSpoon and VitaminR's reactions. TwistedSpoon, despite being called "safe for now" by us, voted as soon as we pointed out he wasn't voting - the pro-town thing to do. VitaminR, by contrast, tried to loudly justifiy his lack of voting and continue doing it. Town players told they are playing poorly (and not voting is exceedingly poor town play) will quickly re-engage with the game. Good scum will do the same. But bad or simply absent-minded scum are overly concerned with saving face - they'd rather JUSTIFY their inaction instead of RESOLVING it. Or, to phrase it another way, concern with appearance over effectiveness is a scumtell, and we feel even safer calling TwistedSpoon town and VitaminR scum.

You're simply attempting to gather more justification your vote on me here. I haven't loudly declared I'm not voting at all. I've simply calmly disclosed my strategy when people asked me about it. It's baffling to me that you're drawing these conclusions. I've played enough mafia not to need your advice on how to play as town. I know what strategy helps me get reads. If I throw my vote around, I get caught up in arguments and emotional reactions and it obscures my ability to think about the game.

Copper, have any of your heads ever played with me?

[VitaminR]

Hoopla defending Fenchurch is a null tell, IMO. I can think of a bunch of reasons why Hoopla of any alignment would do that. Just the fact that Hoopla asked Fenchurch to play in this game would give me enough of a sense of responsibility towards Fenchurch.

[VitaminR]

Whatever, I'll be less stubbornly non-transparent. PZ, muffin, and twisted are town. Hoopla and forest probably are too.

And

Vote: Rory the Roman

.

[Fenchurch]

You don't think it's scummy that he is trying to policy lynch us for unreadability while having "scumreads" on Hoopla and Amrun? You find nothing wrong about him trying to game the nomination list to get a player on it, rather than just voting that player?

I think it's anti-town, but I'm not sure if it makes him scum. I agree with him in that I think hydras will be more difficult to read; but to openly go for a policy lynch over a scummy one isn't good play.
It does seem a bit like he's trying to "game" the nomination list, and that's

why

I think he's town. If he's scum, he doesn't need to get players on it, as he can just put up whoever he likes.

NS: Why did it take you so long to change your vote, despite people asking about it? Do you think there is a benefit to policy lynching a player for being "unreadable"?

But bad or simply absent-minded scum are overly concerned with saving face - they'd rather JUSTIFY their inaction instead of RESOLVING it. Or, to phrase it another way, concern with appearance over effectiveness is a scumtell, and we feel even safer calling TwistedSpoon town and VitaminR scum.

I agree with this. I think that scum will often (wrongly) believe that backtracking would look suspicious, and decide that it's better to stick to their argument when they're called out on it.

[Twistedspoon]

Whatever, I'll be less stubbornly non-transparent. PZ, muffin, and twisted are town. Hoopla and forest probably are too.

And

Vote: Rory the Roman

.

talk about your Rory the Roman vote

Hoopla's knowledge of The Copper heads is... tantalising....

Copper, have any of your heads ever played with me?

ditto this question, but to Rory too If he's willing

[forest_air]

@f_a

Why is NS lurking...?

Were you asking NS why he is lurking,

or were you asking Amrun why she thinks NS is lurking?

That one.

Not sure if forest understands the set up even remotely, which is probably a towntell.

If I didn't understand the setup, I wouldn't have signed up.

My ability to be able to play in such a setup is what should be asked >_>

[Twistedspoon]

forest is here?

@Forest: 3 top scumreads + the scummiest things you've seen so far

furthermore what do you think of Fenchurch and Hoopla

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.05

Nobody Special (3) - forest_air, Papa Zito, Twistedspoon
VitaminR (3) - Copper, Hoopla, Amrun
Hoopla (2) - Nobody Special, zMuffinMan
Amrun (1) - Fenchurch
zMuffinMan (1) - Rory the Roman
Rory the Roman (1) - VitaminR

Not Voting (0)

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

The deadline is Wednesday, July 8, 2011, at 10:28 AM EDT (UTC-4).

[VitaminR]

Alright, scratch my probtown assessment of forest.

[VitaminR]

Twisted, I am voting Rory for two reasons.

His vote for muffin felt very much like what he was accusing muffin of, "fake conviction, random target." He construes muffin's vote as being based on passivity, which is unfair, and ignores muffin's quite reasonable response (I was hoping to get Rory's reaction to this before voting, but I suppose this isn't happening).

Then there is this:

If one adds to this that muff had to be asked to find reasons, one should become more worried. Because given these reasons (passivity, little interaction), there were many suitable targets, not Fenchurch alone. That's not because many players are bad, it's because the game is young. It's even more odd that muff semi buddys me here (I could explain a myself, apparently), because I've been withholding my vote in an obvious way, as has been observed by some clever

townies

.

First off, there is an obvious slip here, which I've bolded. How does he know that the people who picked up on him withholding his vote are townies? Because he's scum.

He also implies there was a reason for withholding his vote and never supplies it. This is more strange than scummy (I was hoping to have him explain this to get more of a read on his behaviour, but I guess he missed my question).

[Fenchurch]

You don't think it's scummy that he is trying to policy lynch us for unreadability while having "scumreads" on Hoopla and Amrun? You find nothing wrong about him trying to game the nomination list to get a player on it, rather than just voting that player?

...
It does seem a bit like he's trying to "game" the nomination list, and that's

why

I think he's town. If he's scum, he doesn't need to get players on it, as he can just put up whoever he likes.

Thinking back on this, if NS is scum then it could be that he is setting Amrun up to be lynched after he puts her on the list, by pushing the idea that she would put herself in there. So I don't think it is a town-tell actually.

[zMuffinMan]

@Hoopla,

Your defense of Fenchurch isn't why I think you're scum.

The question posed (by Twisted, I think) was whether or not Fenchurch would be town if you're scum. This 'conspiracy theory' around that isn't why I think you're scummy. I think you're scummy independent of that.

Why? Gut. I think you're scum. That's it. The fenchurch=town explanation, and this last post by you are the first posts in which you've really done anything in this game. At least you're posting content now.

While I'm away, I'm interested in your town reads, and your thoughts on divulging on them. Do you think it's pro-town to declare town reads in this setup?

If you can't give me that, give me your new scumreads

Copper, PZ, Twisted... NS and Vitamin are weaker town reads for me right now. Rory and Fenchurch I'm meh about for now. You're still scum. f_a and Amrun would be my next two suspects after you.

I don't particularly care whether it's pro-town to do it.

--

@f_a

Wait, do you actually think NS is lurking?

He's got more content in his ISO than you do.

--

Vitamin's #187 just reminded me of this quote;

If one adds to this that muff had to be asked to find reasons

Who asked me to find reasons for what? Is this meant to refer to my reasons for voting Fenchurch? Because nobody asked for them. I gave them, coz, ya know, I hadn't posted anything and I figured I at least owed it to the game to properly explain at least one of my suspicions.

[Nobody Special]

Hoopla is my biggest scumread right now.

I'm still looking at everyone else, but that's the lynch for today. She dipping too deep into theory, and has no real basis for defending herself.

Also, gut.

[Fenchurch]

NS, could you answer these questions?

NS: Why did it take you so long to change your vote from Copper to Hoopla, despite people asking about it? Do you think there is a benefit to policy lynching a player for being "unreadable"?

[Nobody Special]

It took me that long because I was still developing reads, and I don't like not voting. Therefore, I had no better place for my vote until I switched.

2) No, not really. Was a combination random/pressure vote.

[Papa Zito]

It took me that long because I was still developing reads

orly

^Scum, with or without Zito.

Nothing ambiguous here.

[Amrun]

Forest air, why was NS claiming VT a "convenient role for him to claim?"

[VitaminR]

Fenchurch, what do you think of my vote on Rory?

[Papa Zito]

Forest air, why was NS claiming VT a "convenient role for him to claim?"

We already did this dance.

@Forest: Why did you comment on NS' VT claim as "convenient", but not mine, or Hoopla's, or Amrun's?

Because I am ignorant and I completely forgot that you guys claimed, too. Whatever, I still don't see the point in claiming this early for anyone...

I don't understand you here, forest. Claiming vanilla doesn't mean anything, surely?

I guess not. Just looking too much into someone so insignificant.

Underwhelming to be sure.

[Amrun]

If you were just going to vote for a "slip" (and I'm still processing th potential validity of it), what was the point of withholding your vote, VR?

P-edit: I saw the answer before I asked the question. It just didn't make a lot of sense to me.

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch, what do you think of my vote on Rory?

Like Amrun, I would also like to know what made you change your mind between #178 and #180.

But I'm inclined to agree on the Rory vote. He's barely posted anything about his reads, but whenever anyone points that out he gets all aggressive and snarly, saying that it's their fault for not understanding his posts, when he hasn't written them clearly at all.

He's technically correct about cognitive dissonance, but it obvious what Zito meant, call it doublethink or craplogic if you prefer, and Rory's long post was mostly pointless, because he later says to 'stop assuming things, he would have voted Zito if he thought he was scum'. When Copper asks "If not Zito, then who?", his response is "If you want to know what my thoughts are about the game, follow Zito's example and ask what you can't understand." What was Copper doing there if not asking?

Then later in #149 he gets annoyed for the opposite reason, we haven't been assuming

enough

, and his reads should have been obvious. I think his reasons here don't make sense (Amrun falling for a "newbie trap" means she is town, Hoopla saying something reasons means she is town). He uses the phrase "worry about" to describe those he finds scummy, which I find odd. And despite trying to hold back the wagon on NS until page 10, he declares that "NS is scum."

[Hoopla]

The question posed (by Twisted, I think) was whether or not Fenchurch would be town if you're scum.

Erm, nope. He asked why I thought Fenchurch was town - and I explained.

Why? Gut. I think you're scum. That's it. The fenchurch=town explanation, and this last post by you are the first posts in which you've really done anything in this game. At least you're posting content now.

If your entire belief is gut-based, then I have no mode of defense even if I felt obliged to. If you can trace that gut back to anything in the future, feel free to post it so we can start a dialogue. For the mean time, I'll just respond in the only way I can: your gut is wrong.

For the record, I've always been posting content - it's been largely in the form of pushing wagons and analysing minor events, but it has been there, and has been more pronounced than some of our other players. I have voted more often than I usually do at the beginning of games, I've committed to stances and have provided (what I hope is) relevant theory points of discussion. If you've been expecting more from me, I'm sorry to disappoint. You'll forgive me for not breaking the game open two days into Day 1.