Open 315 - Quack Mafia (Game Over)

[IceGuy]

Does everybody agree that we should claim whom we protected N0?

[IceGuy]

@Mod: Do quacks flip "Quack" or "Doctor"?

[IceGuy]

I protected jilynne1991 (randomly chosen).

[IceGuy]

Question to all who randomly chose who to protect: Sathoris, IceGuy,DonJosh, were you at all worried about possibly being a "quack"?

Obviously, I was.

[IceGuy]

I just noticed this:

Hmm, with only two kills out of a possible 4 I think the mafia's kill got

blocked

and a quack's 'kill' got protected.

Why do you think there is the possibility of "blocking" in this game?

Also, POST YOUR PROTECTS

So far, we have:
1. IceGuy -> jilynne1991
2. jilynne1991 -> Uncle Pain
3. zMuffinMan (dead)
4. glowball -> jilynne1991
5. DonJosh -> PopsofCtown
6. izakthegoomba -> Sathoris
7. Sathoris -> izakthegoomba
8. Uncle Pain -> UNKNOWN
9. PopsofCtown -> UNKNOWN
10. Empking -> PopsofCtown
11. forest_air -> UNKNOWN
12. LittleGrey (dead)

[IceGuy]

DonJosh:
- Why did you post whom you protected, but not your justification?
- Why do you think Empking is scum?

Sathoris:
- Why this post? You didn't choose your target randomly.
- Why did you defend DonJosh against Empking's attacks?

Anyway, VOTE: Sathoris mostly because of gut feeling, and

FoS: DonJosh

.

[IceGuy]

DonJosh:
- Why did you post whom you protected, but not your justification?
- Why do you think Empking is scum?

Sathoris:
- Why this post? You didn't choose your target randomly.
- Why did you defend DonJosh against Empking's attacks?

Anyway, VOTE: Sathoris mostly because of gut feeling, and

FoS: DonJosh

.

I did post my justification. It was random protection, same as yours. Personally, I don't see how posting a reason two posts later makes me scummy...

Why did you post it only after you were asked?

[IceGuy]

I'm at work, so I'm going to give my reads quickly:

Sathoris: Probably scum. Also, please answer my questions.
DonJosh: Leaning scum. Empking vote is clear OMGUS. I'm not so sure about this scumread since you are relatively new.
glowball: Leaning town. You seem to be an active scumhunter.
Uncle Pain, forest_air: No content, no read. Probably flaking anyway.
PopsofCtown: Leaning scum for minimal activity and content.
jilynne1991: Usual no-content, hard-to-read behavior. Leaning town; I think you would have posted more content as scum, actually.
Empking: Leaning town. I don't agree with your arguments, but they seem to be earnest.
izakthegoomba: Neutral. Some of your posts make my scumdar go off, but overall impression is still towny.

Also, CLAIM YOUR PROTECTS ALREADY IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE SO.

[IceGuy]

Oh, and IceGuy, why is Sathoris scum? I don't think he's done anything particularly scummy.

See this post.

[IceGuy]

After some rereading...

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DonJosh

Sathoris has earned some town points and you have earned scum points, making you the prime suspect. Uncle Pain seems to be town.

Also, this thread is fucking annoying to read. Thanks Emp.

[IceGuy]

If you have a townread in any of the pairings, then the other person in that pairing becomes a likely quack/scum, which is a good lynch no matter what, imo, gold and silver medals.

Uhm, no. Quacks are basically "reverse weak cops". If a confirmed quack targets someone and they don't die, they're scum. It's actually better to lose a doctor than a quack.

[IceGuy]

1. IceGuy - Likely scum
2. jilynne1991 - Likely scum
4. glowball - Likely scum
5. DonJosh - unsure, will have to see how the lynches flip to determine where scum's left.
6. izakthegoomba - unsure, will have to see how the lynches flip to determine where scum's left.
7. Sathoris - doctor
8. Uncle Pain - doctor/quack
9. PopsofCtown doctor/quack
10. Empking - doctor/quack depending on DonJ's flip.
11. forest_air - Quack.

Why do you consider me scummy? And why do you want to lynch somebody other than "likely scum"?

My vote is on DonJosh because I consider him the scummiest player, although you seem to be trying to overtake him.

If DonJ flips scum, Empking is a doctor and the two remaining quacks are in Iceguy/Glowball and Uncle_Pain/Pops. Which means the other two scum must be Jylinne and Izak.

If DonJ flips quack then Empking is a doctor and seeing as I have a townread on Uncle and Pops the remaining scum must be Jylinne/Iceguy/Glowball or Jylinne and a combination of Izak and glowball or iceguy.

If DonJ flips quack or scum, Empking is a doctor or scum. Or a quack, but then Emp is scum.

If DonJ flips doctor it's a little bit more complicated. Empking could be a quack or he could be scum. I don't think he could be a doctor because that would mean both Uncle/Pops and Iceguy/Glowball consist of a quack and a doctor. And the remaining three scum must me Jylinne/Izak/Sathoris. I know I'm not scum so that doesn't work.

Or Emp is a doctor, and jilynne is scum.

As for the other night actions, I'm not convinced that our behavior be so planned. Scum can nightkill someone to minimize the information we gain.

No, they can't for our quack "investigation". They can't kill a scum player, and they can (try to) kill forest_air but the "protect" still goes through.

This vig fails if he hits scum. Stop looking at the newfound knowledge as a "plus", a successful vig would be able to tell you the alignment of the target by examining the corpse.

Since the vig fails if he hits scum, that means that every time our vig's double-lynch function fails, we have to consume one of our actual lynches to finish his work.

Yeah. But we have a guaranteed scum lynch, as opposed to "no information".

Every time our flawed vig hits scum, he fails to actually accomplish anything. He hits the same person we were going to lynch.

He gives us a confirmed scum lynch.

The scenarios are:
Town, Town, +2 lynches.
Town, Scum, in some order, +1 lynches
Scum, Scum, he didn't actually really do anything.

I don't get that. We can only investigate one player at a time as long as we only have one confirmed quack.

glowball protects popsofctown
Iceguy protects popsofctown

Bad idea. One of us is likely to be a quack, and we want to know who. Okay with the rest.

[IceGuy]

2 out of those 3 are pretty much confirmed scum. Getting desperate cause your NK target is being chosen by us?

Nobody here is

confirmed

scum. You just think they are scum, and you haven't presented a case on any of them.

Also, I agree with popsofctown's plan.

[IceGuy]

Updated reads:

Sathoris: Leaning scum, although I wouldn't read too much into the "scumslip".
DonJosh: Leaning scum, still top suspect.
glowball: Leaning town.
Uncle Pain: Town.
Apokalyptika: Neutral.
PopsofCtown: Leaning town.
jilynne1991: Leaning town due to meta (sorry, I can't be more specific because of the "ongoing games" rule).
Empking: Leaning town.
izakthegoomba: Neutral.

[IceGuy]

Updated reads:

Sathoris: Leaning scum, although I wouldn't read too much into the "scumslip".
DonJosh: Leaning scum, still top suspect.
glowball: Leaning town.
Uncle Pain: Town.
Apokalyptika: Neutral.
PopsofCtown: Leaning town.
jilynne1991: Leaning town due to meta (sorry, I can't be more specific because of the "ongoing games" rule).
Empking: Leaning town.
izakthegoomba: Neutral.

Aaand this post reinforces me with a iceguy/glowball/jylinne scum setup.

Jylinne leaning town. Give me a break! That's scum suicide you just commited there. And leaning scum on me and leaning town on Glowball.

I'm voting for one of those two no matter what come day two!

Thank you for confirming my scum read on you. That's pure OMGUS.

[IceGuy]

Since we have an almost universally agreed upon lynch at L-1, a strategy for the Night and everything that is going on in this thread is back-and-forth without any new insights...

...can somebody finally hammer?

[IceGuy]

Definite reads:
Apocalyptica = quack
jilynne1991 = scum

Conditional reads:
IceGuy = doctor if Sathoris is town
goomba = doctor or scum if Uncle Pain and Sathoris are town
popsofctown and glowball = if there is a quack between them, the other one is a doctor
Uncle Pain and popsofctown = if there is a quack between them, the other one is a doctor; Uncle Pain is doctor or scum if goomba is town
Sathoris = doctor or scum if popsofctown and goomba are town

THE PLAN:
Apocalyptica -> Sathoris
IceGuy -> Apocalyptica
goomba -> Apocalyptica
popsofctown -> glowball
glowball -> Uncle Pain
Uncle Pain -> popsofctown

This gives us the most information.
If Sathoris flips doctor, I'm a doctor and goomba can only be the quack if Uncle Pain is scum.
If Sathoris flips quack, I'm a doctor and popsofctown and goomba are scum.
If Sathoris flips scum (i.e. doesn't die), I'm the quack.
Additional information will be gained from the popsofctown -> glowball -> Uncle Pain -> popsofctown circle-protect.

VOTE: jilynne1991
Please DON'T put jilynne at L-1, we still need a strategy for tomorrow and since she's going to die anyway she'll likely try a self-hammer.

[IceGuy]

VOTE: jilynne1991
Please DON'T put jilynne at L-1, we still need a strategy for tomorrow and since she's going to die anyway she'll likely try a self-hammer.

Then why do

you

put her on L-1?! I count four votes on her (Apokalyptika, glowball, izakthegoomba, IceGuy) and it’s five to lynch.

I highly suggest someone on you unvotes jilynne1991.

I'm not sure if this is correct, but just to be sure UNVOTE: jilynne1991.

[IceGuy]

That being said, I've learned that I'm not really good at figuring out plans/patterns of lynches/protects/what have you. So I'm going to just scumhunt regularly, and factor in the results afterwards. Right at this moment, izak, iceguy and glowball stand out to me in a negative way. Updated thoughts in a moment.

Please at least read our posts regarding protect patterns. Sathoris was targeted by a quack and by me, which means that if he is town, I'm also town.

I find that this plan delivers us a lot more information than IceGuy’s suggestion. I especially don’t like about it that it reveals nothing about IceGuy, izakthegoomba and partly also Sathoris (from my POV, again).
As always, please correct me if you find any mistakes.

What? My plan reveals my and Sathoris' role. It also narrows down goomba's alignment, and gives us some information about the rest.

The problem with your plan is that it gives us little information. Don't forget that a kill only confirms somebody as "not doctor", and a no kill doesn't confirm anything (except for confirmed quacks, and we only have Apo).

[IceGuy]

Currently, I like pops' plan best, but I propose a slightly modified version:

Uncle Pain -> goomba
IceGuy -> popsofctown
Apocalyptica -> glowball
popsofctown -> Apocalyptica
Sathoris -> Apocalyptica
goomba -> IceGuy
glowball -> popsofctown

It doesn't make sense to waste Apocalyptica on a double protect (he is a confirmed quack, so he can test glowball, who is currently the scummiest player and also never single protected). Also, he should be protected by two people which are likely doctors.

Neutral conclusions:
- If I die, goomba is quack or scum, and likely scum, since both Uncle Pain and Sathoris must be scum for goomba to be a quack. We lynch goomba and if he flips town, we have two confirmed scum. -> WIN.
- If glowball dies, she was town. If she flips quack, popsofctown is a doctor.
- If goomba dies, Uncle Pain is not a doctor, so popsofctown is a doctor, and Sathoris is scum, so I'm the quack. If goomba flips town, Uncle Pain is a non-quack.
- If Sathoris dies and flips doctor or quack, goomba is a non-quack, and I'm a doctor. If he flips quack, popsofctown and goomba are scum.
- If Uncle Pain dies and flips doctor or quack, goomba is a non-quack. If he flips quack, popsofctown is a doctor, and goomba is scum.
- If popsofctown dies, and glowball is the quack, I'm either quack or scum. If he's scum, I'm the quack. When popsofctown flips town, Sathoris is a doctor or scum; if I'm the quack, Sathoris is scum.
- If Apokalyptica dies, popsofctown and Sathoris are non-doctors, and Uncle Pain and glowball are doctors, which makes goomba a non-quack.

Survival conclusions are pretty straightforward (protector is either quack or scum or target is scum), with the exception of glowball (if she survives, she is scum).

[IceGuy]

Nothing in your plan suggests that Sathoris will die, so can you explain?

Scum NK.

Besides that the plan sounds good although all of these plans are tilted to personal reads.

Of course they are. Scumhunting still plays a role, although a lesser one as usual.

[IceGuy]

IceGuy’s plan from #383 sounds well thought-out but I still dislike the double protections. They sacrifice an increase of information for the protection of players. IMHO the information is definitely more important to town than the protection of non-confirmed players and still arguably more important than the (safer) protection of confirmed players.

Not any more. We'll be down to 5-2 after this lynch, and will be down to at least 4-2. A confirmed townie such as Apo is very important in this situation.

Also, my plan only has one double protect that does hamper information collecting (on Apo), the me/glowball double protect will gather information about me, since glowball will flip.

I want uncle pain-> pops, iceguy->glowball, and pops->Iceguy. The other ones I really don't care about and don't see a strong case for. Could we accommodate those ones and do whatever you wish with the rest?
Uncle pain ->pops confirms UP's sanity to himself, which I like.
iceguy->glowball has explosive info as a side effect of the iceguy-glowball scum pairing being impossible.
As dramatic as it is, the long spiel I typed out works, so me protecting Iceguy will either rescue him, important when he might become conftown, or it wins the game instantly for the town.

I have popsofctown -> IceGuy in my plan. IceGuy -> glowball is worthless (I can be doctor or quack, and she can be town or scum), and I want her alignment confirmed by quack since she is the scummiest player by far. And I don't see any merit in the Uncle Pain -> popsofctown protect, it doesn't give anybody extra information.

[IceGuy]

If UP is a quack izak is scum. That's useful, isn't it?

No. We won't be able to distinguish between Uncle-doc and Uncle-quack+izak-scum.

[IceGuy]

I'm also OK with #404.

[IceGuy]

VOTE: jilynne1991

[IceGuy]

Oops. I miscounted.

Code: Select all

IceGuy        → Apokalyptika
glowball      → Sathoris
izakthegoomba → glowball
Sathoris      → Uncle Pain
Uncle Pain    → popsofctown
popsofctown   → IceGuy
Apokalyptika  → izakthegoomba

[IceGuy]

Because of the retroactive kill, I am leaning towards Pops being scum...Night one we both protected Apokalyptika and I think the mod error could mean she should have died but did not, meaning one of us is quack and the other is scum. Just speculation though, I don't really know how to handle this situation.

Exactly. And since I'm confirmed town and pops targeted me N2, he can't be the quack.

VOTE: glowball

More analysis coming soon.

[IceGuy]

...yeah, I shouldn't post from trains.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: popsofctown

[IceGuy]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Restart Game

[IceGuy]

In my opinion, this game is irreversibly corrupted. If Apo would have died like he should have, we'd have a different plan for N2, which could have lead to different deaths. Also, due to all quack actions being ignored, we're now going into LyLo with basically no additional information.

This game is mostly about gathering informations from deaths and flips. If there is any change in their handling, it's a different game.

[IceGuy]

The reason for my nullifying quack actions is the fact doing otherwise would have given scum the win (pops kills iceguy, 4 alive, gg). This was the best non-ending-the-game solution that I could come up with, but it really isn't that great either. I'm really sorry about my poor modding.

You're not a bad mod. You just made a small mistake (understandable, with so many night actions floating around...) and were unlucky enough that it turned out to be a game-breaking mistake.

I don't think that remaking the game would be any good due to at leat one of the player having left the site and etc.

I would

definitely

play this game again. Just talk to the list mod, get replacements for jilynne and littlegrey and we're set.

I'd prefer D1 to not start before Saturday CET, though.