Open 318: By Nomination Only (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.06

Nobody Special (3) - forest_air, Papa Zito, Twistedspoon
VitaminR (3) - Copper, Hoopla, Amrun
Hoopla (2) - Nobody Special, zMuffinMan
Amrun (1) - Fenchurch
zMuffinMan (1) - Rory the Roman
Rory the Roman (1) - VitaminR

Not Voting (0)

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

The deadline is Wednesday, July 8, 2011, at 10:28 AM EDT (UTC-4).

[Fenchurch]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Rory

[Hoopla]

To continue the post I delayed earlier;

I'm a little suspicious of Amrun's opening to the game. My interpretation was her eagerness to jump on Zito's claim was mildly opportunistic - I find scum are often keener than townies to pursue and capitalise on situations where they can't be wrong. There is nothing better to scum than laying down a vote that can't be challenged. It prevents them from being called on it, or at worst, they have some kind of high ground if their vote is perfectly well justified. Amrun's engagement with Zito secured her a line of attack that puts her in a position where it would be difficult lose or come out worse for doing so.

It's obvious she didn't understand how much of a non-issue Zito claiming was - she clearly perceived it as damning from the way she continued her argument, which does bring it back to whether a town player or scum player is likelier to want to pursue it. I'm slightly skeptical about the strength of this tell, now that I have it in words, because I could also conceive a town-Amrun committing such an action. I maintain the psychology behind scum feeling more compelled to jump on it is valid and applicable here, though.

To comment on the rest of her play;

I find myself flipflopping on the rest of Amrun's game - she often appears to be doing the right things, but they seem to lack substance. For example, the amount of activity she's brought to the game is solid and typically a townlike quality, yet she hasn't said much to rock the boat. She asks questions, but they often seem to contain little beyond the cosmetic - this might be how Amrun-scum decides to mask her alignment; peppering the game with questions looks good, and is a tangible facet of play to mimic, but it could also be true this is merely the depth of her interrogation, and is unsure or unable to go deeper. I find for all the questions she asks, there still (at times) seems to be a lack of genuine curiosity.

~~

Nobody Special can be a frustrating character - he has a habit of appearing scummy by most peoples' interpretation of the game, and I get the distinct impression that he's often resigned to that fact. He lacks effort and consequently is difficult to read - you can't read someone who isn't playing to further their win-condition. I'm not saying NS isn't playing to win, but I think his investment in games tends to be lower than average. This stands out even more in a game of such calibre.

My willingness to lynch (or at least heavily wagon) NS is based on this fact. I don't think I'll be able to read him accurately in the game, because his alignment is masked by the seemingly shallower motivation his puts forth. I believe I can (and others can) read many of the other players with greater accuracy the deeper the game continues. Players who have a habit of being transparent should always be given chances to perform on Day 1 and Day 2. Nobody Special is not one of those players.

Admittedly, an NS lynch would be more of a utility lynch, than picking the player who is scummiest. You could argue NS is the scummiest, but like many others do already, I have to handicap him because his individual chances of flipping scum don't match up to an average players' chances of flipping scum if they'd committed the same acts. One of the key reasons why I pushed an NS wagon at the beginning of the game was to see other players react to him, and base my read on that, as opposed to basing my read on NS's actions towards others. Initially I was liking the way the wagon on NS formed, but I must admit now, I'm less sure if NS would flip scum - I'm starting to even believe he might actually be town.

I am still piecing together the game. The variables are still too chaotic to break the game down via PoE, which is how I like to hunt and solve the puzzle. For example, I've flipflopped on Zito a couple of times already, and am having conflicting feelings about VitaminR. The way he has steadfastly stuck to how he claims to play the game appears sincere - if anything, coming under pressure for his conservatism and lack of vote could have caused him to conform to try and shake his wagon if he were scum. Given that is the main source of suspicion fueling his wagon, it's becoming less believable he is tentative scum scared of stepping on toes (he's stepping on them now), when the other option is he's just an unorthodox player.

[Hoopla]

Why Fenchurch? Rory is town.

[Nobody Special]

Hmmm. See, Hoopla knows me. And she's explained her wagon on me in a way that is really quite townish. So,

unvote

Yes, I flipflopped in four hours. Deal with it.

I hate not having a vote placed but I don't have time for analysis right now. Probably before bed.

[Amrun]

Hoopla, you misunderstood the entire basis of my "attack" on Papa Zito. I already explained it, though, so I won't again unless you really want me to. I will say this, though: I did not expect or want that vote to go unchallenged.

I feel better about your alignment for that post, though.

Also, I am a little overextended between mafia and real life right now, so there is a certain shallowness to my play in all my games that disappoints me, but I have chosen to let my play suffer a little rather than replacing out of anything. I shouldn't have joined thos game but I reeeeaaaly wanted to play the maiden voyage of this set-up.

That being said, "asking questions" is not even close to being a scumtell for me. Rather, it is something I do as any alignment (truth be told I probably need to balance more by doing it more as scum). It has come up before in other games, but I don't care. Asking questions is how I probe alignment.

There is something off about zmuffin's play in this game. I can't put my finger on it - but I will, eventually.

[Fenchurch]

I'm slightly skeptical about the strength of this tell, now that I have it in words, because I could also conceive a town-Amrun committing such an action.

The bit that I see as scummy from Amrun, is #8 and #12, where she talks about how it was a "random vote" and doesn't mean she thinks he was scum, then #15, where she says she placed the vote "to see what shook out". If the purpose of the vote was for reaction-testing, then she was nullifying it's effect by previously saying it was just random. Her explanation is that she has a different meaning for "random" to everyone else, but I just get the impression that she was making up reasons as she goes along.

Why Fenchurch? Rory is town.

Why do you think Rory is town? I think he's scummy. He's done very little, and what he has done has been super-defensive and with little-to-no scumhunting.

[VitaminR]

Hoopla is town. Just fyi.

Amrun, I withheld my vote because I wanted Rory to respond to muffinman's defense of himself without the light of suspicion on him. There was no real pressure on Rory at all at the time, so I wanted his defenses to stay down so that I could get a more accurate read. I voted him when I realised this response wasn't coming.

As for why I shared my town reads: I was hoping to have a discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of sharing town reads in this set-up, but no one seems to share my concerns. If I'm going to be the only one withholding my town reads, it's kinda useless.

[Captain Spoon]

here is a nice montage of quotes where people say players are town without explanations

Fenchurch is a beacon of towniness (as usual). Don't make me rainbow vote you.

Hoopla is town. Just fyi.

Why Fenchurch? Rory is town.

I wish you guys would say why a player is town without having us to question you for the reasons. As (I think it was either hoopla or Copper) said, there is no punishment for being pro-town in this game (no scum kill)

[Twistedspoon]

eh, wrong account :p

[Hoopla]

Captain Spoon is town.

[VitaminR]

Twisted, I'd tell you if I had superstrong logical reasons for it, but it's really mainly based on gut and town-tells only valid from my perspective. Her thought processes seem genuine and a lot like my own in places. Also, she's been wavering on me a little bit when she hasn't needed to at all. As scum, it would have been advantageous to keep pretending that my playstyle is indicative of caught scum trying to be consistent.

[Captain Spoon]

Captain Spoon is town.

Captain spoon is a hydra account of mine

[Twistedspoon]

ffs, I've done it again

[Amrun]

I don't want to coach the scum on how to appear town.

[zMuffinMan]

Erm, nope. He asked why I thought Fenchurch was town - and I explained.

No, twisted was talking to NS at the time (here). I was commenting on that, and it had nothing to do with why I think you're scum.

For the record, I've always been posting content - it's been largely in the form of pushing wagons and analysing minor events, but it has been there, and has been more pronounced than some of our other players.

Pushing wagons? No. Not once have you 'pushed' any wagon you've been on. You've shifted your vote quite a few times, but you've never even come remotely close to pushing any wagons you've been on.

Analysing minor events? Maybe. Just IIoA though.

More pronounced than other players? Not at all. Could you point out who, specifically, you're referring to here? Apart from me, since I hadn't posted at all at the time.

#202 is nice, but I don't know why people are calling it a town post.

I agree on the points on Amrun, but this isn't something I couldn't see Hoopla-scum writing. Your points on NS are just meh; it looks like making excuses for not being able to read a player. He looks town to me. Effort and content aren't town tells.

Still, you seem to be flip-flopping on every suspicion you have. Who do you actually think is scum? Still Vitamin, even though you have "conflicting feelings" about him? Anyone else?

--

There is something off about zmuffin's play in this game. I can't put my finger on it - but I will, eventually.

Is it perhaps that I'm town and you're scum and you're looking for a reason to find me scummy, but you have nothing that won't backfire and make you look worse for it?

[Amrun]

Is it perhaps that you are mudslinging all over the place with loaded questions yhat serve no purpose, just like this?

[zMuffinMan]

I don't know, you're the one that can't put your finger on it. You tell me.

Or was that just a stupid question that you were asking because I'm right?

[Amrun]

Every gut scumread is clearly because the person with the gut scumread can't explain fake suspicion on a townie. Yes, of course that is correct.

[zMuffinMan]

That reminds me, you asked for my scum meta. Have you done anything with it, or was that just a show? How about a little follow-up?

[Amrun]

I skimmed it a bit, but haven't done a full analysis yet. I'm busy. When I have some time to spend with it, I'll post my findings.

[Nobody Special]

A bit chilly in here.....

[Hoopla]

More pronounced than other players? Not at all. Could you point out who, specifically, you're referring to here? Apart from me, since I hadn't posted at all at the time.

I don't know what the cut-off point you're using is, because you say "apart from your Fenchurch and recent post" I've been contentless. That was about 6 pages into the game, so I'll use that as the benchmark to compare myself against others.


Aside from you, I think what I offered in my posts eclipsed Nobody Special's series of one-liners. I think I gave more than forest_air and I think I gave more than VitaminR. The game was less than two days, so I don't think there is any reason at all for that to be a relevant point. I have always produced content at a steady rate in all my games, and will continue to do so in the future.

I agree on the points on Amrun, but this isn't something I couldn't see Hoopla-scum writing. Your points on NS are just meh; it looks like making excuses for not being able to read a player. He looks town to me.

Effort and content aren't town tells.

You're using (lack of) content as a scumtell for me (or at least a selling point), so obviously tells can go the other way. Content and effort can absolutely be town tells. There is much more town motivation to go back and break down wagons/votes, interrogate players or attempt to unearth unique thoughts/perspective on the game. There are some players who are talented liars and can fabricate at an alarmingly efficient rate, but for many, they won't be as efficient, because it's a lot harder to make something up knowing it's false, than to discover and talk about new things you've learned and seen. For example, if I gave you an hour to write about your most exciting adventure, you should be able to do it easily once you decide on what event it was - the words would flow. If I instead told you to completely make up an adventure on the spot and write about that, do you really think you could pass that off as believably as a real story? Do you think everybody could or even some? The relevance of content as a tell varies player by player - for some it's nearly irrelevant, but others, it's critical.

As an aside, I don't think I'm making excuses for not being able to read a player - I'm admitting to it. That's hardly a crime. I wish more players would suck it up and say when they're having trouble reading someone, rather than forcing a read and guessing for the sake of guessing. My trick for reading VI's, lurkers and other seemingly unreadable players is to pay less attention to what they say and who

they

target, and instead focus on how others interact with them. It's usually a more illuminating angle of connections.

My main willingness to lynch Nobody Special stemmed from a utility perspective: If I'm unlikely to be able to read a player, or will be able to read this player less in comparison to others, then it's a pretty weighty factor to consider for the D1 lynch. D1 lynches typically have low odds of hitting scum - usually less than random. I see no reason against utility/policy lynching Day 1 (or at least it being a deciding factor between two candidates) if it can be justified as a net gain longterm. Because the odds of lynching this player over that is typically negligible, it's probably more important to gain benefit elsewhere, ie; keeping best scumhunters alive, most transparent players, most active players - generally the most potentially beneficial players to town. For example, I wouldn't lynch Glork on D1 suspicion, because unless he's committed some absolutely damning scumslip (ie; never), the odds of him being scum probably don't top 30-35%. I'd rather lynch a 25%-er or whoever is closest to him, because if he's town, he's going to catch us scum at some point. I can't say the same for the next suspicious player - so I'm not going to take the extra 5% on D1.

That's overly elaborate explanation of utility lynching, but it's grounded in logic that makes a lot of sense to me and how I view the game. I know there are others who will solely lynch based on how scummy a player is.

I think you misunderstood my "willingness to lynch" list as a "who I think is scummiest" list.

[Hoopla]

Still, you seem to be flip-flopping on every suspicion you have. Who do you actually think is scum? Still Vitamin, even though you have "conflicting feelings" about him? Anyone else?

To be honest, I think the way you've been arguing for my lynch has started to become insincere. I think I've provided very good reasons for why I've acted in certain ways - I can't account for your "gut" feeling, but it looks like it's starting to trump everything else, and you're now just cherry-picking whatever you can to suit your read, and ignoring what challenges it. I'm not saying I expect you to view me as town, but I think you're working particularly hard to preserve your suspicion of me, rather than viewing the game objectively.

I have conflicting feelings about everyone (obviously), but I think the use of my VitaminR vote has expired.

Who I actually think is scum;

Who is individually scummiest (often when lists are organised like this, the top 2/3 never work together)? Who is the scumteam? Or who I'd most like to lynch? They all produce different answers. So, I'll let you pick which one you want me to answer before you accuse me of twisting the question.

~~

UNVOTE: , VOTE: Papa Zito

[Hoopla]

There is something off about zmuffin's play in this game. I can't put my finger on it - but I will, eventually.

Is it perhaps that I'm town and you're scum and you're looking for a reason to find me scummy, but you have nothing that won't backfire and make you look worse for it?

I don't know why you're criticising Amrun for having a gut-based read, when that is entirely what your vote on me is predicated on.